Modeling of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in East Java Province using Mixed Semiparametric Regression Spline Truncated and Kernel Approach

Arip Ramadan, I Nyoman Budiantara, Ismaini Zain

2018

Abstract

The problem of population growth in Indonesia year by year is relatively very high. Based on data from Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (SDKI), there is a very high increase of TFR and uncontrollable increase of population in Indonesia. TFR in East Java is very high in 2012 reached 20%. The behavior of TFR patterns is associated with the variables that are suspected to affect the Unmet Need, the Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR), the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has a very special pattern. The relationship pattern between TFR and Unmet Need tends to be linear. While the pattern of relationship between TFR with ASFR and HDI, in contrast to the Unmet Need that tends to be nonlinear especially change as the increase or decrease value of these variables. The pattern of relationship between TFR and IMR appears not to follow a certain pattern. Taking into account this description, this study modeled using mixed semiparametric regression spline truncated and kernel spline models. The best model is a mixed semiparametric regression spline truncated and kernel model with a combination of knots that has the smallest GCV of 0.003964 and the coefficient of determination of 97.04%.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Ramadan A., Budiantara I. and Zain I. (2018). Modeling of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in East Java Province using Mixed Semiparametric Regression Spline Truncated and Kernel Approach.In Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs, ISBN 978-989-758-407-7, pages 271-277. DOI: 10.5220/0008520602710277

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icmis18,
author={Arip Ramadan and I Nyoman Budiantara and Ismaini Zain},
title={Modeling of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in East Java Province using Mixed Semiparametric Regression Spline Truncated and Kernel Approach},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,},
year={2018},
pages={271-277},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0008520602710277},
isbn={978-989-758-407-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,
TI - Modeling of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in East Java Province using Mixed Semiparametric Regression Spline Truncated and Kernel Approach
SN - 978-989-758-407-7
AU - Ramadan A.
AU - Budiantara I.
AU - Zain I.
PY - 2018
SP - 271
EP - 277
DO - 10.5220/0008520602710277