Possible Method for Monthly Natural Rubber Price Forecasting

Ketut Sukiyono, Nusril, Eko Sumartono, Indra Cahyadinata, M. Zulkarnain Yuliarso, Gita Mulyasari, Musriyadi Nabiu, Febrina Nur Annisa

2018

Abstract

Future price information is crucial not only for producers but also for other agribusiness actors. Price is a signal for them to make a decision regarding what to produce and when to sell including for natural rubber. For this reason, forecasting and selecting the best model becomes important. This study is aimed to analyze and select the possible forecasting methods for monthly natural rubber prices in Indonesia and World Markets. The univariate model of Double Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, and ARIMA models are applied to forecast price data from 2012:1 – 2016:12. The selection of an accurate model is based on the lowest value of MAPE, MSD, and MAD. ARIMA is the possible methods for world rubber price forecasting while Double Exponential Smoothing should be applied for predicting domestic rubber prices because it allows for better predictive performance.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Sukiyono K., Nusril., Sumartono E., Cahyadinata I., Yuliarso M., Mulyasari G., Nabiu M. and Annisa F. (2018). Possible Method for Monthly Natural Rubber Price Forecasting.In Proceedings of the 2nd International Research Conference on Economics and Business - Volume 1: IRCEB, ISBN 978-989-758-428-2, pages 172-179. DOI: 10.5220/0008785301720179

in Bibtex Style

@conference{irceb18,
author={Ketut Sukiyono and Nusril and Eko Sumartono and Indra Cahyadinata and M. Zulkarnain Yuliarso and Gita Mulyasari and Musriyadi Nabiu and Febrina Nur Annisa},
title={Possible Method for Monthly Natural Rubber Price Forecasting},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Research Conference on Economics and Business - Volume 1: IRCEB,},
year={2018},
pages={172-179},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0008785301720179},
isbn={978-989-758-428-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Research Conference on Economics and Business - Volume 1: IRCEB,
TI - Possible Method for Monthly Natural Rubber Price Forecasting
SN - 978-989-758-428-2
AU - Sukiyono K.
AU - Nusril.
AU - Sumartono E.
AU - Cahyadinata I.
AU - Yuliarso M.
AU - Mulyasari G.
AU - Nabiu M.
AU - Annisa F.
PY - 2018
SP - 172
EP - 179
DO - 10.5220/0008785301720179