quality rice (BER) variable has a positive effect and
does not significantly affect inflation in Indonesia.
Variable price of bulk cooking oil (MGC) with t-
statistics value = -1.2668 and coefficient value = -
1.5671 (prob = 0.2174) shows that the variable bulk
cooking oil (MGC) has a negative effect and does
not significantly affect inflation in Indonesia.
Variable sugar (GUL) with t-statistic value = -.6893
and coefficient value = -0.9443 (prob = 0.4972)
shows that the variable price of sugar (GUL) has a
negative effect and does not significantly influence
inflation in Indonesia. Red curly chili variable
(CMK) with t-statistic value = 0.7575 and
coefficient value 0.8276 (prob = 0.4561) shows that
the curly red chili variable (CMK) has a positive
effect and does not significantly influence inflation
in Indonesia. Chicken meat variable (DAY) with t-
statistic value = -0.2771 with coefficient value = -
0.4710 (prob = 0.7841) shows that the variable price
of chicken meat has a negative effect and does not
significantly affect inflation in Indonesia.
F-Test. In the short and long term, the estimation
results can be seen that the F-statistic value is 5.0799
with a statistical probability of 0.0001 smaller than
α = 0.05 indicating that together all independent
variables are gross domestic product (GDP), price of
quality rice medium (BER), the price of bulk
cooking oil (MGC), the price of sugar (GUL), the
price of curly red chili (CMK), the price of chicken
(DAY) and the Error Correction Term (ECT) have a
significant effect on inflation in Indonesia.
Coefficient Determination Test. This means that if
R
2
= 0, it indicates that there is no influence between
the independent variables on the dependent variable.
The smaller R
2
approaches 0, it can be said that the
smaller the influence of the independent variable on
the dependent variable. Conversely, if R
2
approaches
1, it indicates the stronger influence of independent
variables on the dependent variables. Based on the
results of data processing with the Error Correction
Model method in the short and long term, the value
of R Squared is 0.7334 or 73.34%, so that in the
short and long term variables the gross domestic
product (GDP), medium quality rice (BER), price
bulk cooking oil (MGC), price of granulated sugar
(GUL), curly red chili price (CMK), chicken meat
prices (DAY) affect inflation in Indonesia with a
value of 73.34%. while the rest in the short and long
term is 26.66% explained by variables outside the
model (not examined).
4 CONCLUSIONS
Based on the estimation results that have been done
using the Domowitz-El Badawi Error Correction
Model model the following conclusions can be
drawn;
Of the several independent variables that were
tried to be estimated in the equation of the effect of
Gross Domestic Product variables, Medium Quality
Rice Prices and Bulk Cooking Oil Prices in the short
term these variables had a positive and significant
effect on inflation in Indonesia. While the variable
Curly Red Chilli Prices in the short term have a
positive and not significant effect on inflation in
Indonesia. As well as the variable sugar price and
variable price of chicken meat, each variable in the
short term does not affect inflation in Indonesia.
At long term, from several independent variables
that are tried to be estimated in the equation of the
variable effect of Gross Domestic Product has a
positive and significant influence on inflation in
Indonesia. Variable Price of Medium Quality Rice,
and Price of Curly Red Chili have a significant
positive effect on inflation in Indonesia in the long
run. Variable Prices of Bulk Cooking Oil, Variable
Prices of Sugar, and Variable Prices of Chicken
Meat have a negative and not significant effect on
inflation in Indonesia.
From the coefficient of determination (R
2
) with
the estimated model results obtained R-Squared
value of 0.7334 meaning that in the short and long
term variable Gross Domestic Product, Medium
Quality Rice Prices, Bulk Cooking Oil Prices, Local
Sugar Prices, Curly Red Chili Prices, and Chicken
Meat Prices affect Inflation in Indonesia with a
value of 73.34%. The rest is influenced by other
variables not discussed in this study.
Based on the conclusions stated above, there are
several suggestions that can be used as
recommendations as follows;
Because of at the short term all the independent
variables affect Inflation, it is recommended that the
government implement appropriate fiscal and
monetary policies. The policy objective is to
maintain the stability of food commodity prices
appropriately. This is due to the large contribution of
the effects of food commodity prices on the inflation
rate in Indonesia.
Because of the rate of economic growth will
have a negative effect if accompanied by a high
inflation rate. For this reason, there will be
continued cooperation between Bank Indonesia as
the monetary authority and the government as the
fiscal authority and related agencies and institutions