Forecasting the Amount of Cough Drug Productions using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in P.T. Mutiara Mukti Farma 2019

Suyanto, Reynold Sitorus

2019

Abstract

Forecasting is an important first step in making planning for each business organization and for any significant management decision making. Double Exponential Smoothing Brown forecasting method is one of the time series forecast data models that is designed for a data that contains trend elements. In this study data on the amount of drug production at P.T. Mutiara Mukti Farma from 2006 to 2018 indicated a trend data as time goes on. The data obtained is then analyzed using a scatter diagram to determine the pattern then analyzed using the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method, to find the smallest forecast error based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The best α parameter value used to forecast the amount of drug production is 0,5 with percentage error 0,08% with the form of the forecasting equation F(t + m) = 425.194,8 + 3761,963m

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Suyanto. and Sitorus R. (2019). Forecasting the Amount of Cough Drug Productions using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in P.T. Mutiara Mukti Farma 2019. In Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath, ISBN 978-989-758-556-2, pages 346-349. DOI: 10.5220/0010182300002775

in Bibtex Style

@conference{imc-scimath19,
author={Suyanto and Reynold Sitorus},
title={Forecasting the Amount of Cough Drug Productions using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in P.T. Mutiara Mukti Farma 2019},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath,},
year={2019},
pages={346-349},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010182300002775},
isbn={978-989-758-556-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath,
TI - Forecasting the Amount of Cough Drug Productions using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in P.T. Mutiara Mukti Farma 2019
SN - 978-989-758-556-2
AU - Suyanto.
AU - Sitorus R.
PY - 2019
SP - 346
EP - 349
DO - 10.5220/0010182300002775