The Rationality of Preference in Presidential Candidates

and Use of Social Media:

Study on Beginner Voters in Jakarta

Endang Setiowati

Vocational Education Program, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia

Keywords: Rational choice theory, consistent, instrumental, election, Indonesia

Abstract: This study aims to examine how the beginner voter uses their rational choices to choose the presidential

candidates, while the information from social media floods their pages. The number of beginner voters in both

presidential and legislative members’ election is quite significant, about 8% of total voters in 2019 elections.

Beginner voters were prone to be politicized and made into political commodities to boost the popularity and

electability of election contestants. One way to influence them is through social media, which is usually less

accurate. The rational choice theory will be applied to analyze the rational choice to individual voter

behaviour. The methodology of the study will be quantitative that will collect data from beginner voters

regarding how rational they choose the presidential candidate. The result is that Jokowi’s voters are more

rational than Prabowo’s voters. The study is expected to contribute to the development of campaign theory

and also to politicians in influencing constituents.

1 INTRODUCTION

Beginner voters are community members that will be

taking part in general elections for the first time.

According to Law of the Republic of Indonesia,

Number 42/2008 regarding the General Elections of

the President and Vice President Article 1 point

21explained that those who have the right to vote in

general elections are citizens Indonesia which has an

age of 17 years or more. In regulations, the legislation

also explained that married citizens even though he or

she is not even 17 years old they have the right to elect

in the presidential election. (Fachrudin, 2018) In the

Potential Election Voters List (DP4) the number of

beginner voters who will be 17 years old from 1

January 2018 to 17 April 2019 is 5,035,887 persons.

(Andayani, 2018) However, the number of beginner

voters in Presidential elections will be much more,

since the beginner voters, in this case, are people who

never vote for the presidential election in 2014,

because they have not been 17 years old at that time.

In this study, beginner voters were those who were

not yet 17 years old on 9 July 2014 when the

presidential election was held, until those who have

been 17 years old on 17 April 2019 when elections

will be held. Alternatively, those born on 10 July

1997 to 16 April 2002. According to Bambang

Soesatyo, the chairman of the Indonesian House of

Representative (DPR RI), the number of new voters

in the 2019 election is as much as 8% or around 14

million people. (Sabran, 2018)

Beginner voters are considered to still unsTable in

determining who will be elected for president. Critics

often make it clear that young voters should not be

involved in an election due to their inability to make

a choice. Their choices often change. Research

carried out in Austria, the only country that set the age

of 16 as an election participant showed their failure to

choose that was inexplicable. Their motivation to

participate in elections tends to below, and if they

choose, they are usually not different from their

parents’ choices. (Wagner, Johann, & Kritzinger,

2012)

The Executive Director of The Association for

Elections and Democracy (Perludem) Titi Anggraeni

said that young voters are indeed more than 50%,

which if categorized until the age of 35, amounts to

79 million. Still, if it reaches 40 years, the number

reaches 100 million. She explained that this

millennial group has a political adaptation that is

somewhat different from the older age groups. They

are more dynamic and change their political

412

Setiowati, E.

The Rationality of Preference in Presidential Candidates and Use of Social Media: Study on Beginner Voters in Jakarta.

DOI: 10.5220/0010686200002967

In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference of Vocational Higher Education (ICVHE 2019) - Empowering Human Capital Towards Sustainable 4.0 Industry, pages 412-418

ISBN: 978-989-758-530-2; ISSN: 2184-9870

perceptions faster, primarily very influenced by the

environment. (Sucianingsih, 2018)

The above statement is reinforced by research

conducted by Damanik (2018) on “WhatsApp and

Beginner Voters in Medan City” that was held in the

North Sumatra Gubernatorial Election, concluded

that the political participation of beginner voters of

WhatsApp users had increased significantly. On the

other side, the understanding of democracy was co-

opted by the political cleavage, where their choices

were more dependent on the social situation, family

environment, relatives and peers, the influence of the

pulpit and the written symbols of religion and ethnic

groups. (Damanik., 2018)

Beginner voters who are millennials have the

habit of using social media as a reference to find

information. From the research conducted in 2018, it

was found that on average, young people have more

than one type of social media, and in each social

media, they have more than one account. Ownership

of social media accounts and anything that is done by

respondents when using social media has more or less

an impact on how they treat hoaxes and fake news

when they get information from friends or other

people. From this research, it was found that the most

widely used social media was Instagram (58.8%)

WhatsApp (24.4%), and Line (7.3%). When

respondents get a piece of information that they think

is interesting from social media the most (30.7%) do

not sort or analyze first, whether or not the news

needs to be spread. While those who read first and

then analyze it whether it needs to be spread or not

only 25.6%. These statistics mean that the possibility

of spreading the hoaxes and/or fake news becomes

increasingly viral. Especially with the response of the

audience who chose to directly spread the information

they got, without sorting and confirming whether the

info was correct or not. This situation shows how

hoaxes and fake news attacks are very easy to form

the negative public opinion, and when public opinion

has been formed, it is challenging to straighten it out.

(Setiowati, 2018)

The anxiety and ignorance of the beginner voters

in the election is what the political parties or

presidential candidates aim. A large number of

beginner voters can significantly increase vote

acquisition. One of the political efforts to gain the

beginner voters is by spreading the information

regarding the presidential candidates through social

media. One of the efforts carried out by the national

campaign team of each presidential candidate was by

making personal branding of the presidential

candidates they carried out. According to Asri (2018)

on “Anies Baswedan’s Re-branding in Beginner

Voters in Gubernatorial Election of DKI Jakarta in

2017”, they found that efforts to form candidate

personal branding are not only the good branding for

the candidate but also by creating bad branding for

the opposing candidates. This effort is usually carried

out using social media. (Asri, 2018)

Informing a good personal branding by

displeasing an opponent can be done in several ways,

among others are, first, unintentional reporting

mistakes, for example, news that stated that

Indonesia’s debt in the Jokowi era reached the highest

number. Secondly, false rumours do not originate

from a particular news article. For example, there was

news about Jokowi has an unreported overseas

account. Thirdly, conspiracy theories are difficult to

verify as true or false and typically originated by

people who believe them to be true. For example,

there was information regarding Jokowi as a member

of the Communist Party (PKI), and he is of Chinese

descent. Fourth, satire is unlikely to be misconstrued

as factual. For example, there was information

regarding Jokowi as Jokodok (Jokowi the Frog) and

his constituents as Cebong (tadpole). Fifth, false

statements were stated by politicians. For example,

Ratna Sarumpaet was persecuted. Lastly, reports are

slanted or misleading but not outright false (fake

news is “distortion,” not “filtering”). For example,

there was news about seven containers of ballots that

have been punched by candidate number 01. Some

information is incorrect and shaped by video. In the

video, a statement of prominent figures such the Pope

supports Donald Trump or in Indonesia about KH

Ahmad Dahlan who associates disasters that occur

with the quality of leaders who are not trustees, or in

the form of memes that spread through social media.

(Allcott & Gentzkow, 2017)

Social media plays an increasingly important role

in political communication campaign strategies by

disseminating information about policies that will be

carried out if won, support from respected community

leaders, or also support from supporters of a

candidate. The content of the message is, of course, a

message construct that is tailored to the personal

branding that they want to achieve for their

candidates. From research carried out in the 2016

election of EU leaders, national language and

message distribution by social media, volume and

communication content during the campaign, as well

as the factors that determine the adoption and use of

social media by candidates, are things that are

analyzed. Their findings show that the main

candidates and their debate on television have a big

influence on the volume and content of the

communication. Another finding is that the content

The Rationality of Preference in Presidential Candidates and Use of Social Media: Study on Beginner Voters in Jakarta

413

and emotional tone that exists reflects preferences

about the policies that have been implemented by

incumbents. (Nulty, Theocaris, Popa, Parnet, &

Benoit, 2016) Although some studies have shown that

beginner voters choose their choices based on their

living environment, peer groups, and parents,

messages. Those reasons are constantly being

conveyed from social media, which they receive more

often than information from the parties mentioned

above, certainly also affects their rationality in

choosing a presidential candidate.

Based on the explanation above, this study will

examine how the rationality of beginner voters is used

in selecting presidential candidates, mainly because

of a flood of misleading information about

presidential candidates that is spreading in social

media, in the upcoming elections in April 2019.

2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The word “rational” is normative. Particularly if it is

associated with rationality in choosing. Rationality

consists of two components: Choice must be

consistent, and it must be instrumental. A choice is

rational if it is the best way to achieve something,

which logically eventually becomes consistent. There

is no assessment of whether the objectives are

normatively good. In terms of preference for one

presidential candidate, one’s choice will be consistent

if they have to choose which one they think is best or

to follow their interests. For example, someone can

consistently explain why he chose a presidential

candidate and not choose another candidate. Even

though he was given other information, he still

believed that he rationally chose candidates who were

always the same. Consistency is also related to utility.

If beginner voters assume that by choosing a

presidential candidate, they can accept a utility, then

he will elect the presidential candidate. (McGann,

2016)

The second component of rationality is

instrumental. In simple English, it means people do

something for a reason. This assumption is not unique

for people who apply the “rational choice” model.

Indeed, Weber (1978) argues that this is important to

do in all types of interpretive social sciences. To

understand why someone does something, we have to

ask what is the reason. If the citizens follow Weber’s

example, to interpret why someone chooses a

presidential candidate, we must ask what the reason

he chose the presidential candidate is. Weber argues

that it is necessary to adopt the establishment of

methodological rationalism to assume that the person

is rational and do interpretative social science. Of

course, people might turn out to be irrational, but this

can only be learned by trying to find a rational

explanation and eliminate it. (McGann, 2016)

An assumption based on research conducted by

Antunes (2010) that human behaviour when choosing

consists of three basic premises, namely all decisions

made either by voters or political parties are rational;

triggered by their interests or interests, and reinforced

by the principle of maximum usability. Democratic

political systems show a degree of predictive

consistency that supports the consequences of

decisions made by voters and political parties.

Therefore, their agents, voters, parties and

governments are responsible and trustworthy. This

state makes it possible to make predictions about the

consequences, resulting from differences choice. The

system assumes that regardless of the consistency, it

has a degree of uncertainty for different choices.

(Antunes, 2010)

To apply how rational the beginner voters are

when choosing a president, two types of statements

about the two presidential candidates will be

submitted, both in the form of negative information

and positive information that can be seen in the

following matrix:

Table 1: Information that is spreading in social media.

Candidates Negative

Statement

Positive

Statement

Joko Widodo 1. Member of

Indonesian

Communist

Party (PKI)

1. A devout and

righteous

Muslim prays

on time, any-

where in the

Musholla

closest to

where he is—

visiting an

area together

with the

people.

2. Selling State

Assets

2. Save the

country’s

assets by

acquiring

51% of

Freeport’s

3. Increase

State Debt

3. Paying off

government

debt and

using new

debt for

ICVHE 2019 - The International Conference of Vocational Higher Education (ICVHE) “Empowering Human Capital Towards Sustainable

4.0 Industry”

414

Candidates Negative

Statement

Positive

Statement

infrastructure

development

for the

betterment of

the people

4. Siding with

foreigners

particularly

China

(foreign and

non-local

agents)

4. Jokowi wants

Indonesia to

be more

independent

by dissolving

the Petral oil

mafia and

taking over

management

of the

Mahakam

block to be

managed by

Pertamina

5. Anti-Islamic,

anti-ulema,

ban the call

to prayer and

abolish

religious

studies

5. Jokowi has

always

worked to

improve the

welfare of the

people and

the quality of

Indonesian

human

resources so

that they can

compete with

foreign

workers

globally.

Prabowo

Subianto

1. Human rights

violators by

kidnapping

and

eliminating

students or

activists

1. A

commander

who is

concerned

with the

interests of

his soldiers

2. Will bring

back the New

Order Era

2. Prabowo will

bring people

who are now

getting

poorer to

become more

prosperous

3. Supporters of

the caliphate

in power

3. President

selected

based on the

fall of ulema

so that he can

save the

Candidates Negative

Statement

Positive

Statement

oppressed

Islam

4. US

accomplice

because his

brother

Hasyim has

promised the

parliament

will put US

interests first

if Prabowo

wins

4. If Prabowo

does not

become

president,

then

Indonesia

will be

destroyed in

2030

5. Have assets

hidden in

Panama

Paper and

control

thousands of

hectares of

plantation

land in

Sumatra and

Kalimantan

5. If Prabowo

becomes the

president of

Indonesia,

the state and

the people of

Indonesia

will be more

prosperous

In addition to negative and positive information,

the consistency of votes is conveyed through several

statements (Table 2).

Table 2: Consistency in Presidential Choice.

Jokowi Prabowo

Although there is

information that Jokowi is

only imaging when

visiting the people

directly, I still believe that

Jokowi is the best

presidential candidate for

Indonesia for doing his

job sincerely for the

people of Indonesia

Although there is

information that Prabowo

is suffering from Bipolar,

so his emotions are often

unsTable I still believe

that Prabowo is the best

presidential candidate for

Indonesia

Although there is

information that Jokowi is

secretly actually engaging

in several development

projects, I believe that it

is slander, because

Jokowi is an honest

person

Although there is

information that Prabowo

has the assets of

corruption, collusion, and

nepotism (KKN) from the

Cendana family, I believe

Prabowo will share his

wealth with the people if

he becomes president

Although there is

information that Jokowi

often uses state facilities

Although there is

information that

Prabowo’s father was a

The Rationality of Preference in Presidential Candidates and Use of Social Media: Study on Beginner Voters in Jakarta

415

for personal use, I still

believe that it is indeed

the protocol standard for a

president, because Jokowi

and his family always get

on an economy class

plane when travelling for

personal matters.

traitor to the nation by

supporting the PRRI /

Permesta separatist

movement during the

Soekarno era, I believe

that Prabowo was a true

nationalist who would

defend the Indonesian

nation and state

3 METHODOLOGY

Research carried out with a quantitative approach

using google form. Samples were obtained with the

Snowball Sampling technique in which the research

period of one month was started from 12 March to 11

April 2019. During the down period, there were 189

respondents, but as many as 17 respondents did not

have complete answers, so only 172 respondents were

used.

Beginner voters are those who were not yet 17

years old on 9 July 2014 when the presidential

election was held, until those who have been 17 years

old on 17 April 2019 when elections were held. The

criteria for respondents are that they must be aged

between 17 and 22 years and for the first time in

voting for the presidential election,

To measure respondents’ answers, researchers

used the Likert scale with four levels of agreement,

i.e

1 - Strongly Disagree

2 - Disagree

3 - Agree

4 - Strongly Agree

To measure the level of validity of the results of

the study used reliability with a minimum Cronbach

alpha value of 0.6 and validity with a factor analysis

measurement, based on a minimum KMO value of

0.5 with a maximum significance of 0.05. the results

of the validity test are all reliable and valid. This

results can be seen in Tables 3, 4, 5 and 6 below

Table 3: Reliability of Positive vs Negative Info.

Reliabili

Negativ

e info

Jokowi

Reliabili

Negativ

e info

Prabowo

Reliabili

Positive

info

Jokowi

Reliabili

Positive

info

Prabowo

N 5 5 5 5

Cronba

0.968 0.951 0.953 0.836

Table 4: Reliability of Consistency in Choice.

Reliability

Consistency

Jokowi

Reliability

Consistency

Prabowo

N 3 3

α Cronbach 0.725 0.921

Figure 1: Validity Regarding Jokowi.

Figure 2: Validity Regarding Prabowo.

4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Information

The research obtained the youngest respondent was

born on 24 October 2001, and the oldest was born on

16 July 1998/ The respondents consisted of 71 men

(41.3%) and 101 women (58.7%). Their domiciles are

101 people in DKI Jakarta (58.7%), Bodetabek (outer

Jakarta) 30 people (17.4%), and outside Jabodetabek

(Jakarta and outer Jakarta) 41 people (23.8%). While

their most professions are college/university students,

namely 145 people (84.3%), high school students as

many as 15 people (8.7%), and employees as many as

12 people (7.0%).

From the 172 respondents, 92 people (53.5%)

chose Jokowi as president, while the remaining 80

people (46.5%) chose Prabowo as president.

A cross-table was conducted between their

opinions on information about presidential candidates

and their presidential choices to find out the

rationality of respondents in determining presidential

choices. The following results are obtained.

Table 7: Negative Info Regarding Jokowi.

Level of

Agreement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 72 20 92

2 20 10 30

3 0 30 30

4 0 20 20

Total 92 80 172

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4.0 Industry”

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From Table 7, we can see that all Jokowi voters

disagree with the negative information circulating on

social media. While some Prabowo voters agreed that

negative information about Jokowi is as many as 50

people (62.5%), some disagreed that they are as many

as 30 people (37.5%).

Table 8: Negative Info Regarding Prabowo.

Level of

Agreement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 0 50 50

2 10 20 30

3 32 10 42

4 50 0 50

Total 92 80 172

From Table 8 above, it appears that the majority

of Prabowo voters as many as 70 people (87.5%)

disagree with negative information about Prabowo

circulating on social media. Meanwhile, 82 people

(89.1%) of Jokowi’s voters agreed with negative

information about Prabowo. However, there are ten

people (12.5%) Prabowo voters agree with negative

information about Prabowo, while there are ten

people (10.9%) Jokowi voters disagree with negative

info about Prabowo circulating on social media.

Table 9: Positive Info Regarding Jokowi.

Level of

Agreement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 0 10 10

2 0 30 30

3 20 40 60

4 72 0 72

Total 92 80 172

From Table 9, it appears that all Jokowi voters

believe in positive information about Jokowi

circulating on social media. Uniquely, Prabowo’s

voters of 40 people (50%) also believed in positive

information about Jokowi while the other 50% do not

trust positive information about Jokowi.

Table 10: Positive Info Regarding Prabowo.

Level of

Agreement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 20 0 20

2 62 50 112

3 10 20 30

4 0 10 10

Total 92 80 172

From Table 10 above, it appears that the majority

of Jokowi’s voters, as many as 82 people (89%) do

not believe in positive information about Prabowo

circulating on social media. Meanwhile, Prabowo’s

voters are also in the majority. Namely, 50 people

(62.5%) do not believe in negative information about

Prabowo. Ten Jokowi voters believe in positive

information about Prabowo, while 30 voters believe

in positive information about Prabowo (37.5%).

4.2 Consistency

Table 11 shows how respondents will continue to

elect Jokowi’s president despite the negative issues

concerning Jokowi. From Table 10, it can be seen that

the majority of Jokowi’s voters, namely 82 people

(89%) decided to continue to vote for Jokowi.

However, the funny thing is there are 30 people

(37.5%) Prabowo voters agree that Jokowi deserves

to be elected president.

Table 11: Consistency on Jokowi.

Level of

reement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 00 0

2 10 50 60

3 30 30 60

4 52 0 52

Total 92 80 172

Table 12: Consistency in Prabowo.

Level of

Agreement

Jokowi

President

Prabowo

President

Total

1 50 10 60

2 32 20 52

3 10 30 40

4 0 20 20

Total 92 80 172

From Table 12 above, it appears that the majority

of Jokowi’s supporters, namely 82 people (89%) do

not trust Prabowo as president, while Prabowo voters

who believe in Prabowo deserve to be president only

50 people (62.5%). The rest, however, did not believe

that Prabowo was worthy of being president.

Rationality consists of two components: Choice

must be consistent, and it must be instrumental. A

choice is rational if it is the best way to achieve

something, which logically eventually becomes

consistent. In terms of preference for one presidential

candidate, one’s choice will be consistent if they have

to choose which one they think is best or to follow

their interests. Even though he was given other

information, he still believed that he rationally chose

candidates who were always the same. Consistency is

also related to utility. If beginner voters assume that

by choosing a presidential candidate, they can accept

a utility, then he will elect the presidential candidate.

The Rationality of Preference in Presidential Candidates and Use of Social Media: Study on Beginner Voters in Jakarta

417

Jokowi voters do feel that by choosing Jokowi, they

will get tangible benefits because, in the first period

of his leadership, it has been seen that the differences

made by Jokowi in Indonesia have a very positive

impact on the equality of the people’s welfare in

eastern Indonesia and the border areas. The number

of respondents who chose Jokowi was always

consistent at a minimum of 89%. While Prabowo’s

voters appear to have been inconsistent because, in

some positive statements about Jokowi, around

37.5% agreed or believed positive things about

Jokowi.

The second component of rationality is

instrumental. In simple English, it means people do

something for a reason. If seen from what the reasons

they continue to vote for Jokowi, they also show their

consistency, which is whatever the issue, they still

believe in Jokowi and still choose Jokowi. However,

Prabowo’s voters seemed unsure of his choice

because around 37.5% believed Jokowi who deserves

to be president (Tables 11 and 12).

5 CONCLUSION

Rationality consists of consistency and necessary

components. In this case, the beginner voter who

chose Jokowi was more consistent in choosing

Jokowi as president, compared to the beginner voter

who chose Prabowo. Meanwhile, instrumental also

shows the reasons for Jokowi’s voters who are more

fixed in choosing Jokowi rather than Prabowo’s

voters. It can be concluded that Jokowi’s voters are

more rational than Prabowo’s voters.

This finding can be a reference for further

research on beginner voters, primarily to find out the

reasons why voters are inconsistent with their

political choices.

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ICVHE 2019 - The International Conference of Vocational Higher Education (ICVHE) “Empowering Human Capital Towards Sustainable

4.0 Industry”

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