π
(3)
Table 2: Result of Demand Fulfilment Simulation with 10 Replications
Replication
Demand Fulfillment (Tons)
DAP Red KCl
White
KCl
PR HG PR MG ZA
IIB IIA IIB IIB IIIB IIIA IIA IIA IIB
Existing 182,586 318,630 249,964 84,552 538,697 501,567 294,716 251,833 190,140
1 186,600 330,700 254,800 85,150 472,550 516,250 313,650 257,200 192,700
2 171,500 333,200 251,150 87,100 479,900 509,700 296,350 208,700 160,400
3 168,350 301,550 246,100 90,000 526,100 481,500 301,650 250,900 193,500
4 179,450 324,550 252,600 85,650 512,400 504,250 295,050 239,600 178,650
5 183,050 296,850 226,150 90,450 543,300 505,900 256,250 250,050 178,750
6 166,250 323,650 245,150 80,950 481,900 509,600 296,300 238,900 180,500
7 165,650 323,100 248,350 80,050 557,250 528,350 288,100 254,250 190,800
8 178,000 286,000 252,700 84,300 553,200 511,300 248,800 252,650 182,850
9 147,950 264,400 232,100 84,100 530,750 481,750 292,300 254,000 185,100
10 194,150 323,450 242,800 80,200 543,800 464,650 275,150 258,600 194,300
Average 174,095 310,745 245,190 84,795 520,115 501,325 286,360 246,485 183,755
Standard
Deviation
13,076 22,636 9,366 3,718 31,834 19,270 20,369 14,837 10,250
hw 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04
hw' 9,129 15931.48 12498.08 4227.60 26934.84 25078.33 14735.80 12591.66 9506.99
nβ 10 10 3 4 7 3 10 7 6
5.3 Validation
The method used for validation is using Paired-t-test
hypothesis testing with a parameter used for
validation is the demand fulfillment of each raw
material in each factory. The demand fulfillment of
each raw material in each factory considered can
capture the whole behavior of the system, starts from
the supply up to the demand. The recapitulation of
total raw material demand fulfillment in factories is
presented in Table 2.
In this hypothesis testing Paired-t-test, the null
hypothesis is that there is no significant difference
between the average results of the simulation results
with the existing condition. The alternative
hypothesis is that there is a significant difference
between the average results of the simulation results
with the existing condition.
H0: π
π
ξ΅π
π
H1: π
π
ξ΅π
π
The recapitulation of hypothesis testing using the
Paired-t-test is simplified in Table 3. Based on the
result of hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is
accepted because the t stat falls between the range -
2.101 < t Stat < 2.101. Such a condition shows that
there is no significant difference between the actual
and the simulation system.
Table 3: Validation Hypothesis Testing Result
Validation
Parameter
t Stat
t Critical two-
tail
Conclusion
Lower
Limit
Upper
Limit
DAP at IIB -2.054 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
Red KCl at
IIA
-1.101 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
Red KCl at
IIB
-1.611 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
White KCl
at IIB
0.207 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
PR HG at
IIIB
-1.864 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
PR HG at
IIIA
-0.040 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
PR MG at
IIA
-1.297 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
ZA at IIA 0.104 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho
ZA at IIB -1.970 -2.101 2.101 Accept Ho