Connected Vehicles Fleet Expanding Problems

Larisa Gabsalikhova

, Irina Makarova

, Vladimir Shepelev

2,3 c

, Larisa Fatikhova

and Eduard Belyaev

Kazan Federal University, Syuyumbike prosp., 10a, 423822, Naberezhnye Chelny, Russian Federation

Silkway International University, Tokaev Street 27 “А”(housing А) Turkestan Street Corner,

160019, Shymkent City, Kazakhstan

South Ural State University, ave. V.I. Lenin 76, 454080, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

Keywords: Connected Vehicles, Fleet Expanding, Problems.

Abstract: The transport systems intellectualization directions analysed in article. The digital technology introduction

occurs at all stages of the vehicle life cycle: product development, preparation and production launch, product

manufacture, its operation and maintenance. The autonomous vehicles fleet expanding problems are indicated.

The intelligent vehicles development and the varying degrees of intellectualization vehicles fleet expansion

is accompanied by a number of problems, including those related to the influence of social factors on the

transition to fully autonomous vehicles. Consumers are still worried about the consequences of introducing

such vehicles, which is related to the security problems. The risk assessment of connected vehicles

introduction to the market has been performed. The article concludes with an analysis of connected vehicles

ensuring the reliability technical problems.

1 INTRODUCTION

The world economy of the new millennium is

characterized by two trends: the rapid development of

engineering and technology, which require

significant amounts of resources and cause the

emergence of negative impact on the environment

sources significant number, on the one hand, and on

the other, an increase in the number of transition to a

«green» and circular economy supporters the

initiating the development of program documents and

concepts for sustainable development (SD) in all

areas of activity. The processes of globalization and

urbanization are accompanied by an increase in the

need for transportation, which requires solving the

issues of transport system stability and security. One

of the priority areas, the need for development of

which is caused by urbanization negative

consequences, the economy real sector development,

as well as, often, unjustified harmful human impacts

on the environment, indicated in the UNEP «Global

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3325-3285

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6184-9900

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1143-2031

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2442-2374

Green New Deal», sounds like «Sustainable cities,

including planning, transport and green building»

(UNEP, 2020).

The UNEP transport strategy, which promoted a

paradigm shift towards less road use without

compromising mobility, has three areas: «Prevention

- Transition - Ensuring environmental cleanliness».

To solve this problem, various methods are proposed,

the most promising of which is transport systems

intellectualization greater process, which, in

particular, is reflected in road transport development

strategy in Russia AutoNet. Innovations in the field

of transport today are very relevant, since transport

has a key impact on society, especially in terms of

permanent SD. This is reflected in the concept of

smart city. At the same time, smart mobility is one of

the main issues here, as it provides people with access

to places of work and leisure, and is also part of the

production and other subsystems in the city’s

economy.

642

Gabsalikhova, L., Makarova, I., Shepelev, V., Fatikhova, L. and Belyaev, E.

Connected Vehicles Fleet Expanding Problems.

DOI: 10.5220/0009838506420650

In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems (VEHITS 2020), pages 642-650

ISBN: 978-989-758-419-0

2 STATE OF THE PROBLEM:

TRANSPORT SYSTEM

INTELLECTUALIZATION

CONDITIONS AND

PROSPECTS

2.1 The Issues of Transport Systems

Intellectualization: Smart Mobility

Transition from traditional production to the

automation of its processes based on advanced

industrial technologies and digitalization is necessary

to implement Industry 4.0. Industry 4.0 means a

paradigm shift in industrial production towards the

use of flexible structures with autonomous,

automatically controlled elements. At the same time,

enterprise logistics can be optimized using intelligent

cyber-physical systems and autonomous vehicles.

The creation of autonomous vehicles is one of the key

trends in the digital economy, since their introduction

will lead to changes in a number of economy and

urban economy sectors the related to logistics

processes. As a result of digital technologies

introduction, vehicle manufacturers are already

beginning to engage in direct sales, the traditional

business model of the company is being transformed

and services such as an online vehicle sales platform

and a short-term rental service for special vehicles

and vehicles are emerging.

A Deloitte agency review indicates that there are

two opposing perspectives on the future of mobility

(The Future of…, 2019). Their fundamental

differences are mainly related to the question of

whether traditional vehicles private ownership

current model, driven by humans, is relatively

unchanged, sooner or later we will move on to

autonomous vehicles, mainly shared. There are also

fundamentally different points of view regarding

exactly what the path to transformation will be.

Proponents of natural evolution idea believe that the

development of the business ecosystem of the

automotive industry will be consistent and

straightforward, and its current assets and

fundamental structure will essentially remain

unchanged. Opposite point of view adherents -

jerking development - predict the onset of a turning

point that promises very interesting economic

prospects and benefits for society. At the same time,

analysts, in view of the competition between the

market forces that form the new structure of the

automotive industry, identified four different

scenarios for its development, which will appear as

two key factors influence result: the way of driving

(driving with the participation of a person or

autonomous driving), the vehicles ownership form

(private or joint). According to the results of the

analysis, innovations will be unevenly distributed in

different countries of the world, whose population

experiences different needs for different types of

mobility. This means that future transport ecosystem

all four forms are likely to exist simultaneously.

The service that provides Real-time Traffic and

Travel Information (RTTI) promotes real-time

information about the traffic situation and optimal

travel routes to increase the mobility of the

population. This information (increasingly in

conjunction with satellite navigation services) is now

being offered, both public and private sources. In the

longer term, it is expected that principle of interaction

between participants in the movement and

infrastructure elements realized systems, including

systems are being introduced that provide for the

communication and exchange of information

between connected vehicles using V2X technology,

in particular vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), vehicle-to-

infrastructure (V2I) and infrastructure-to-

infrastructure (I2I). For V2X technology to become a

reality, two areas - automotive and

telecommunications - must expand the coverage of

the 5G signal and ensure reliable reception. If

necessary, the Global Navigation Satellite System

(GNSS) capabilities will be used.

2.2 Autonomous Trucks

The automotive industry plays a crucial role in

ensuring environmental friendliness and

sustainability of the environment, working towards

market launch of energy-efficient and

environmentally friendly vehicles. At the same time,

the transition to autonomous vehicles can be

combined with the transition to vehicles with a

neutral level of carbon emissions. One way to expand

the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles fleet is

to use electric vehicles, which are usually more

energy efficient.

The most promising area for the use of

autonomous vehicles, causing greater confidence

among consumers, are cargo transportation and

utilities. Autonomous vehicles operate in industries

such as farming, inventory management, mining and

construction. Uber, Tesla and Mercedes-Benz are

experimenting with autonomous driving technology

in city buses and semi-trailers.

On the other hand, municipal vehicles and

trucking fleets have regular traffic routes and

consume large amounts of fuel daily, polluting the

Connected Vehicles Fleet Expanding Problems

643

cities air pools. It is advisable to organize the transfer

of their fleets to more environmentally friendly

vehicles. Connected vehicles for urban services are

especially relevant, since intelligent on-board

systems select the optimal engine operating

conditions, which reduces harmful emissions.

So, for garbage trucks that move along a certain

route, the automation of the garbage compactor will

allow the driver to constantly stay near the console

instead of moving between the cab and the rear of the

garbage truck. For an automated garbage truck,

reversing is much easier than under the control of a

human driver. In addition, given that in some areas,

reversing heavy vehicles is prohibited or possibly

under the control of a traffic controller who helps the

driver, an automated truck with a full range of sensors

can eliminate these restrictions while improving

safety. Since the automation of vehicles is inevitable,

it is more likely to use autonomous vehicles in areas

involving complex and unsafe activities for humans.

One such area is the mining industry, for which

Volvo is testing a truck in the mines. The technology

used in autonomous trucks is designed to optimize the

logistics of mine routes. So, during a continuous

operating cycle, due to traffic planning and

maintaining a given speed, congestion disappears,

which reduces the time for loading and unloading.

Currently, drivers during blasting operations are

usually forced to wait for the subsequent ventilation

of mine shafts and only then proceed with loading the

ore, which in the case of autonomous trucks is an

unnecessary measure, i.e. work can begin

immediately. Thus, each truck can be used much

more efficiently based on transport tasks per shift. As

a result, autonomous vehicles become an integral part

of the overall production system of mine operations.

A more uniform transport cycle and average speed

lead to lower fuel consumption and tire wear (Volvo

FMX autonomous…, 2020).

Improving the design of connected vehicles, their

testing and the transition to alternative energy sources

in road transport indicate a growing desire to create

more environmentally friendly and intelligent

vehicles. In this sense, large enclosed construction

sites are optimal for using fully autonomous

transport, which allows us to automate the

transportation process and reduce the ecological

burden on the environment.

2.3 Driver Assistance Systems

Along with the development of fully autonomous

vehicles (TS), vehicle producers are working on

improving driver assistance systems (ADAS), which

use V2x and 5G technologies to communicate with

other road users. According to the researchers, a

decrease in the role of the human factor in the process

of managing large systems will lead to a reduction in

the risk of incidents that cause serious consequences

in large cities and megacities.

J3016 SAE International's Standard Taxonomy

and Definitions for Terms Associated with

Automated Driving Systems for Land Vehicles

provides a classification system that defines six levels

of driving automation from zero to full automation.

These are: driver warning systems, combinations of

driver warning systems, or automated driving

systems (SAE J3016, 2016).

Drivers the world over also wish to be able to

decide for themselves when to let a car drive

autonomously, and when to control it themselves.

More than 63% of respondents in China believe

driverless cars will increase road safety, while the

figure is 34% in the U.S. and Germany (Survey

examines…,2018).

Since the vehicles intellectualization is aimed at

ensuring safety on the roads, there are active safety

features that are exceptions and are highlighted in this

standard, since they operate in critical situations

regardless of the driver’s desire. Due to the

instantaneous nature of the action of active safety

systems, their intervention does not alter or exclude

the role of the driver in the performance of part or all

of the driving functions, and, therefore, are not

subject to automation. However, it should be noted

that the possibility of avoiding an accident, including

the type of active safety systems, can be in vehicles at

any level of driving automation.

The traditional driver assistance technology

allows to recognize some objects, carry out their basic

classification, notify the driver of dangerous

situations and, in some cases, slow down or stop the

vehicle. This level of technology development does

an excellent job of detecting «dead» zones, assisting

in changing lanes and warning about the danger of

collisions.

2.4 On-board Diagnostic Systems

The vehicles intellectualization, aimed at improving

the safety of transport systems, leads to a number of

problems associated with the structural and

technological solutions complexity. Automotive

companies, working in the direction of the

development and implementation of autonomous

vehicles, predict the emergence of problems

associated with their operation period number: both

commercial (transportation) and technical (service).

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644

New opportunities and limitations that will have to be

encountered when using autonomous vehicles are

discussed in articles (Fagnant D.J. and Kockelman K.,

2015), (Bonnefon J.-F. et.all, 2016), (Bagloee S.A. et

all, 2016). Currently, the conditions for the

widespread distribution of autonomous vehicles have

not yet been created, since safety issues must be

carefully analyzed (Cui J. et. all, 2019). The

development of on-board diagnostic systems leads to

problems related to the reliability of technical and

electronic systems, the organization of their service

support, safety (Hacker P., 2017), (Hamada Y. et. all,

2019), (Wang Q et. all, 2018), data privacy and

difficulties in applying IT tools and software.

Vehicle producers are interested in predicting the

future of autonomous vehicles, the prospects for their

introduction into the markets. Studies (Haboucha C.J.

2017), (Bansal P. and Kockelman K.M., 2017) allow

us to understand individual motives for choosing

when moving to using autonomous vehicles.

Research 1 shows, that 13% of people say they

would never use a self-driving car. In contrast

however, aversion is twice as high in highly

developed economies (UK and USA) as in lesser-

developed countries. The question of safety reveals a

huge perception gap (Fig.1). Most US drivers feel

unsafe that self-driving cars are even on the road. And

a huge majority is afraid of riding in an autonomous

vehicle (Self-Driving Infographic…, 2019).

Figure 1: Consumer opinion.

Since autonomous vehicles manufacturers must

ensure their trouble-free operation, it is necessary to

solve the issues of organizing their service. For

vehicles technical condition remote assessment, it is

necessary to create a remote database for collecting

failure codes and transmitting them to a service center

for planning the time of arrival for maintenance and

repair and ordering spare parts. At the same time, the

issue of choosing the list and installation locations of

sensors for automotive components, assemblies and

systems timely technical diagnostics that have the

greatest impact on safety is being addressed.

Currently, numerous studies are devoted to the

development of on-board diagnostic systems, for

example, in the article (Fong B. et all, 2015) On-

board diagnostic system based on predictive

information using an intra-vehicle wireless network

with additional functions for monitoring driver status,

on-board sensors for determine the vehicle condition.

For the entire system of autonomous vehicles

operation and service to work in concert, interaction

between various subsystems is necessary: road

infrastructure, service and logistics systems, the

vehicles themselves and other participants in the

movement, as well as the production system. For this,

a unified information environment and intelligent

control systems are created. To a greater extent, the

Smart City concept meets this, where all subsystems

are covered by intelligent controls. For building

confidence in autonomous vehicles requires that

people have confidence in cars in terms of

cybersecurity and reliability.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 The Role of Social Factors in the

Transition to Autonomous Vehicles

Assessing possible changes in the transport system

during the transition to autonomous vehicles, analysts

evaluated, first of all, the opportunities that the

economy and society receive:

- Liberation of a person from the routine task of

driving vehicles in routine situations, for example,

during long-term traffic on highways, in traffic jams,

in the urban traffic cycle.

- Reducing accident rate, a significant proportion

of which is associated with the so-called "human

factor". It is believed that the accident rate reduction

can reach 80-90%, since the human factor is the cause

of 80% accidents. Perhaps this is too optimistic a

forecast, since autopilot robots will make their

mistakes typical of robots.

- Growth in vehicle utilization due to fuel

economy, the possibility of round-the-clock

equipment use, etc.

- Savings in creating road infrastructure. Driver

robots, for example, hardly need dividing strips and

barriers, so you can use virtual marking - on cards in

the autopilot memory, etc.

However, in most cases, positive effects have a

downside. Thus, the benefit can lead to losses: the

most obvious is the fact that removing the “human

factor” from the vehicle control system, we create

social tension, reducing the number of people

involved in the drivers transportation. In addition, the

advantage, designated as «the ability to do some

Connected Vehicles Fleet Expanding Problems

645

business during the trip”, according to doctors, can

lead to an increase in ailments due to motion sickness.

To avoid this, technical solutions are needed that can

be expensive (Scott L.V. et all, 2015).

Academic and independent researchers not only

pose numerous complex questions, but also offer

possible solutions to future problems.

As shown by the survey’s results which conducted

in different countries by CISCO (The Network

Cisco's…,2020), a significant population part is not

yet ready to perceive an autonomous vehicle as a full

participant in road traffic. Moreover, the more

developed the country, the smaller the number of

residents willing to entrust him with their lives and

the family lives. This is due to the fact that in these

countries they more adequately assess the

consequences of failures in vehicles control systems.

Fear of cybercrime around autonomous vehicles

is widespread among global motorists—especially in

Germany. A full 76% of respondents in Germany

believe that personal data can fall into unauthorized

hands when using autonomous vehicles (Survey

examines…,2018).

According to the HNTB survey, 91% of

respondents believe that autonomous vehicles should

have someone on board who can take control in an

emergency (Autonomous vehicle…, 2020). People

fear the vehicle inadequate response to unforeseen

situations. Engineers developing autonomous

vehicles must solve the problem of matching

algorithms that implement the autonomous vehicles

actions program with the moral principles if decisions

are needed in emergency situations.

Autonomous vehicles on public transport are

becoming a promising technology in comparison with

existing vehicles. The article (Bosch P.M. et all,

2018) estimates the costs of using autonomous

vehicles, as well as their impact on future

transportation systems. For one thing, the use of

autonomous vehicles increases the purchase price of

a vehicle, but on the other hand, it reduces operating

costs by lowering insurance premiums, maintenance

and fuel costs. In addition, they allow taxi companies

to work without drivers, thereby reducing the bulk of

their costs. However, given the lack of a driver,

customers of such services may exhibit more

irresponsible behavior in the vehicle, which leads to

faster pollution. At the same time, more frequent

cleaning of the cabin and its control are necessary. It

has been established that more than half of

autonomous fleet operating costs will be the

maintenance and management cost (Bosch P.M. et

all, 2018).

The introduction of connected vehicles could

introduce the practice of using joint rides (“ride

sharing”). Sharing connected vehicles will reduce the

need for parking spaces. Given the introduction of

automated vehicles, sharing services can play an

important role in increasing vehicle occupancy and

shortening the distance traveled. The results of the

study (Lavieri P.S. et all, 2019) show that users are

less sensitive to the presence of strangers on a trip to

work compared to a trip in their free time. It is noted

that travel time added to the trip to serve other

passengers can be a more serious obstacle to using

shared services compared to the presence of a

stranger. The study (Kong P. et all, 2018) indicates

that the absence of a person in autonomous vehicles

can be solved with the help of a work robot, however,

there are many users in public transport, which

creates its own difficulties.

Considering the above, it can be concluded that

despite the fact that billions are invested in creating

an autonomous, connected and environmentally

friendly vehicle of the future, consumers are still

afraid of introducing these vehicles consequences.

3.2 Possible Risks of Expanding the

Market for Connected Vehicles

The vehicles intellectualization, achievements in the

autonomous vehicles development lead to a wide

range of operational and service risks. It is necessary

to assess the risks of bringing connected vehicles to

the market. The risk management process usually

consists of the stages (Łukasik Z. and Szymanek, A.,

2012), (Tuncel G., 2010) of identifying risks,

assessing them, choosing a method of mitigation and

monitoring and control. Table 1 summarizes the

potential risks of expanding the market for connected

vehicles. A method for assessing the risk (P) each

type occurrence and the risk (consequences C)

consequences probability is evaluated on a 5-point

scale (table 1).

Table 1: Probability and risk assessment scale.

The risk level (risk level RL) is defined as the

product of its probability and the consequences (RL

= P × C).

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646

Table 2: Assessment of connected vehicles market

expanding potential risks.

Since the intelligent module should have a large

base for identifying situations and choosing actions,

the most voluminous step before launching such

vehicles on public roads will be machine learning and

algorithm testing.

The main work at the machine learning stage is

the collection and purification of data on which the

model will learn. If the machine is not sufficiently

trained to perceive, for example, persons with

different skin colors, glasses and without them, with

wide or narrow, brown or gray eyes, this can lead to

malfunctions. This will be the risk of erroneous

algorithms. The machine has a lot of human-defined

options for action in order to cope with the problems

that arise, so there is a risk of learning models from

data sets that already contain errors. It is necessary to

analyze the accumulated statistical information and

improve the algorithms.

Connected vehicles vulnerability risk is that there

is a great possibility of hacking software and gaining

access to driving a vehicle. It is necessary to check

the model adequacy with the illogical behavior of the

vehicle. The steering system can be checked for the

adequacy of the action by tracking information about

the deviation from route. The brake system can be

checked for an adequate response to traffic signs,

compliance with traffic rules. There is also the

possibility of an incorrect response to traffic signs in

case of poor visibility.

Figure 2: Risk matrix.

Connected Vehicles Fleet Expanding Problems

647

Figure 3: Operational factors affecting the technical condition of connected vehicles.

Introducing connected vehicles consequences will

affect the scope of the service infrastructure related to

their functioning. There is a reorganizing the service

infrastructure high cost risk, including the road, since,

first of all, good road surface and clear markings are

necessary. The cost is also affected by the need to

organize additional sites for vehicle electronic

systems diagnosis and maintenance. In this case,

retraining of personnel is required to service vehicles.

The risk matrix highlighting the critical area is

shown in Figure 2. The risk matrix analysis shows

that the most probable risks, which have serious

consequences both for the person and for the transport

system as a whole, are associated with the risk of

erroneous algorithms, vehicles vulnerability and legal

liability for damage in a traffic accident ambiguity

risk

3.3 Connected Vehicles Reliability

With an increase in the number of connected vehicles,

questions of ensuring their reliability will come out.

One of the most important and necessary conditions

for ensuring the competitiveness of automotive

companies in the world market is the improvement of

the corporate service system. Dealerships should

provide the ability to collect information about the

technical condition of connected vehicles, study

failure statistics for new vehicle models in order to

predict the likelihood of their occurrence.

On-board systems of connected vehicles on each

vehicle will signal the need for maintenance and more

complex problems, while continuous monitoring of

the technical condition is required, which requires the

improvement of on-board diagnostic systems.

Monitoring the technical condition will prevent

premature failures, as well as adjust the modes of

vehicle maintenance.

The article (Makarova I. et all, 2018) analyzes

ways to increase the operational reliability of trucks

by monitoring and diagnosing their technical

condition. The possibility of applying the vibration

diagnostics method to assess the technical condition

and forecasting the remaining service life of the

vehicle’s clutch is analyzed.

Modern vehicles are equipped with a large

number of sensors, and it is obvious that the higher

the degree of intelligence, the more sensors it is

provided, which affects the reliability of the system.

The article (Nitsche C. et all, 2004) proposes an

approach that uses artificial neural networks to

facilitate the task of on-board diagnostics.

To evaluate the structural and technological

reliability of vehicles, calculations and experiments,

including computer ones, are performed, however, it

is impossible to reproduce all variants of external

factors combinations that may arise in actual use.

With this in mind, the task of ensuring reliability in

real operating conditions should be solved taking into

account external influences exerted on the vehicle. In

this case, it is necessary to take into account

operational factors affecting the technical condition

of the connected vehicles. For the connected vehicles’

safe operation, the measures on active and passive

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safety are taken. This applies both to the most

connected vehicle and control system, as well as to

the infrastructure. (Fig. 3.).

Various combinations of these factors create

many emergency situations, nevertheless, it is

necessary to single out the main ones and, taking the

others as independent factors, determine the patterns

and degree of influence on the design of the vehicle.

As vehicles get smarter, technology and

infrastructure must evolve in tandem. Automation

will increasingly contribute to the rapid reporting of

possible vehicle breakdowns, with the ability to

reserve a place in the vehicle service for servicing and

repairing the vehicle, however, the process of

servicing autonomous vehicles will still require

human involvement in vehicle maintenance.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The transport sector is currently undergoing

significant changes. Connected vehicles are actively

entering our lives. The future of connected vehicles

largely depends on building consumer confidence in

the vehicle. But even though billions are being

invested in creating an autonomous, connected and

environmentally friendly vehicle of the future,

consumers still fear the consequences of introducing

these vehicles.

Transport systems intellectualization and

automation involves a large number of diverse risks.

Based on risk assessment the most likely risks that

have serious consequences for both the person and the

transport system as a whole are associated with the

risk of erroneous algorithms (risk level 15), vehicles

vulnerability (risk level 15), and liability for legal

damage ambiguity risk (risk level 16). Ideally, the

vehicle should predict the actions of the objects

surrounding it and, in accordance with this, adjust its

behavior on the road, while solving the task. If the

vehicle is not adequately trained, this will lead to

erroneous actions and endanger road users. There are

still many problems to solve in this direction.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation

for Basic Research: grant No. 19-29-06008 \ 19.

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