Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic

Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure

Innovation Design

Lana I. Gurfel

, Victoria Yu. Pavlovskaya

Kuban State Technological University, Moskovskaya Street, 2, Krasnodar, Russia

Kuban State University, Stavropolskaya street, 149, Krasnodar, Russia

Keywords: Economy, Region, Forecasting, Infrastructure, Social and Economic Development.

Abstract: In the context of growing social and economic differences, the issues of developing adequate and well-

grounded management decisions in the regions regarding infrastructure transformations are of particular

importance. Taking this into account, the importance of forecasting the parameters of social and economic

development increases. In this paper, the authors substantiate the forecast of selected social and economic

indicators from the perspective of promising infrastructure innovations. It is shown that by now a number of

accumulated problems in the field of regional infrastructure provision have accumulated, it is possible to solve

them only through complex management decisions. The obtained forecast estimates of individual parameters

of the social and economic sphere of the model region will contribute to the development of a more adequate

social and economic policy of infrastructure innovations. The empirical forecast estimates obtained in the

work can be useful to regional management authorities and research teams, as well as individual researchers

when conducting similar research.

1 INTRODUCTION

The current stage of the spatial and territorial

development of the Russian Federation in the context

of setting “the tasks of breakthrough development of

the social, economic and scientific and technological

nature” is characterized by a significant increase in

attention to strategic transformations to ensure the

achievement of specific indicators of the social and

economic dynamics of individual territories and the

entire Russian Federation. We emphasize that out of

the 9 “national goals of the Russian Federation

development for the period up to 2024” 6 belong to

social and economic goals, associated with an

increase in income and quality of life, as well as the

demographic situation improvement. The process of

renewal and development of social infrastructure, as

a central and necessary factor in improving the

quality of life of the rural and urban population, plays

an essential role in achieving the objectives.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2260-6092

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1645-175Х

Actual regional aspects of the quality of life of the

population growth of the territories are presented in

the works of Afonasova, M.A. (Afonasova, M.A.,

2018), Balobanov, A.E. and Golubev, S.V.

(Balobanov, A.E., Golubev, S.V., 2012), Klimenko,

O.I. and Botalova, M.E. (Klimenko, O.I., Botalova,

M.E., 2019), Vavilina, N.D. (Vavilina, 2013),

Galitskaya, V.A. (Galitskaya V.A., 2018), Degil, O.V.

(Degil, O.V., 2012), Heffteran, M.H. (Hefferan M.

Fern A., 2018).

According to Afonosova, M.A. (Afonosova,

M.A., 2018), who considered the prospects for the

quality of life growth in rural areas of certain regions,

at present, the strategic direction of the balanced

spatial and territorial development of peripheral

territories is the growth of infrastructure provision of

the population in terms of education and health

services, which, according to the author will

contribute to an increase in the quality of human

capital and rational use of resource and economic

opportunities. Agreeing with this, in fact, axiomatic

statement, we note that one of the problems of the

286

Gurfel, L. and Pavlovskaya, V.

Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure Innovation Design.

DOI: 10.5220/0010589502860291

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 286-291

ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7

modern regional economy is the assessment of the

national economic efficiency of infrastructure

investments, the investment needs of which sharply

exceed regional and municipal capacities, but do not

have a short-term return.

Balobanov, A.E. and Golubev, S.V. (Balobanov,

A.E., Golubev, S.V., 2012) made an original attempt

to consider the category of quality of life in the

context of one of the essential resources of municipal

development, trying to substantiate the existence and

significance of the relationship between the quality of

life and human potential in specific municipal

associations - cities.

At the same time, the "quality of life" category

and attempts to adapt it in the regional economy

terminology as an independent research and

methodological pole is today at the stage of scientific

research, weakly connected with real subjects,

processes and specific national economic

significance for the economy of locations and regions,

and also cannot be considered independently, without

infrastructure equipment of the territories (Wetwitoo

J.J., Kato H., 2017), (Oomura I., Yamashita N.,

Tanoue H., Jorinbou I., 2017), (Alberio M., Sousa J.,

2020), (Kozma, D.E., 2019), (Marques T.S., Saraiva

M., Santinha G., Guerra M., 2018), (Matz Dahlberg I.

B., 2020), (Busquet G., 2011), (Glass M.R., Addie J.-

P. D., Nelles J., 2019).

V. S. Antonyuk as a team member of authors with

I. V. Danilova, S.A. Mitelman and Bulikeeva, A. Zh.

(Antonyuk, V.S., Danilova, I.V., Mitelman, S.A.,

Bulikeeva, A.Zh., 2015) proposes that the regional

social infrastructure is a functional system of

providing social services to the population of the

territory, participating in the formation of the regional

indicator of the quality of life. Botalova, M.E.

(Klimenko, O.I., Botalova, M.E., 2019) tried to

consider and classify the factors and conditions that

determine the dynamics of modern infrastructural

capabilities of a regional nature, associating the level

of infrastructure development with the level of social

and economic development of the region.

Bykovskaya, I.V., (Bykovskaya, I.V., 2012) notes

one of the aspects of the regional social infrastructure

in connection with the growth of intraregional

migration of categories of highly qualified workers

and the importance of the factor of their choice of

target location depending on the level of social

infrastructure provision.

Thus, an important objective of the study is the

theoretical and analytical substantiation of the

relationship between the development of the social

infrastructure of the region and the quality of life, the

level of social and economic development.

2 METHODOLOGY

At the initial stage, a hypothesis was put forward,

which is in the assumption of the impossibility of

systemic and long-term social and economic

development of a specific territory (location,

municipality, region, macro region) without

predicting the scale of social, social and economic

interactions as the basis of regional economic

activity.

As part of the verification of this assumption,

Krasnodar Krai as a research platform was

determined.

The theoretical basis of the study was formed on

the basis of selection, study, critical reflection,

analysis and assessment of trends in the social and

economic development of the model region,

presented in strategic documents of territorial

planning. To carry out predictive calculations and

analytical work, the materials of the Forecast of the

development of the long-term social and economic

development of the Russian Federation for the period

up to 2030, the Spatial Development Strategy of the

Russian Federation, 2019 Presidential Address to the

Federal Assembly were used, as well as an empirical

block of data reflecting the attractiveness of territories

of Krasnodar Krai for irrevocable migration of the

population with the aim of its. The research

instruments are presented by methods of forecasting

and economic interpretation of the obtained empirical

estimates, as well as by various methods of their

graphical visualization.

3 RESULTS

3.1 Analysis of Social and Economic

Prerequisites for the Development

of Social Infrastructure

In 2015-2019, the Krasnodar Krai was characterized

by a steady, slowly growing resident population and

its stable structure: during the period under review,

the total population of the territory increased by 3.6%

(including 2019, compared with the previous period,

by 0.8%), amounting to more than 5.648 million

people as of January 1, 2019.

There was a slight trend towards urbanization in

the region: for the period 2015-2019 the share of the

urban population of the territory increased to 55.18%

or by 1.12% in 2019 compared to 2015, amounting to

more than 3.116 million people, the share of the rural

Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure

Innovation Design

287

population decreased to 44.82%, amounting more

than 2.531 million people as of January 1, 2019.

The labor force available for use in the regional

economic system of the Krasnodar Krai, at the end of

2018, amounted to 3.369 million people or 60.1% of

the total resident population of the territory, the

specific estimate of the GRP normalized for this

factor in 2018 was 711 thousand rubles per person in

current prices and 602 thousand rubles per person in

2015 prices.

In 2018, more than 2.603 million people were

employed in legal economic activity on the territory

of the region (46.5% of the total resident population

and 77.3% of the regional labor force), which ensured

the production of GRP per employee at the level of

920 thousand rubles in 2018 (779 thousand rubles in

as o 2015)

A very interesting empirical fact that characterizes

the degree of openness of the social and economic

system of Krasnodar Krai and the scale of its

integration into the national economic space is the

proximity of the region GRP and the monetary

income of the population of the territory: in 2018,

cash incomes amounted to more than 2.28 trillion

rubles or 95.1% of GRP (having decreased over 4

years by more than 11.5% in relative terms, including

5.2% over the last year).

According to regional statistics, against the

background of a real decline in the population cash

income, Krasnodar Krai in 2015-2018 characterized

by an increase in the effectiveness of the

implementation of the social function of state

administration of the territory in relation to the

population with incomes below the subsistence level:

for 2015-2018, the number of those decreased to the

level of 10.9% of the total resident population of the

territory, the positive change was 0.8% with stable

dynamics for the period under review. At the same

time, every tenth inhabitant of the region experienced

an acute shortage of cash income and was balancing

on the brink of physical survival, which was an urgent

and significant regional trend and a problem of

promising territorial social and economic

development.

3.2 Problems of the Regional Social

Infrastructure

It should be emphasized that the current level of

social and economic development of Krasnodar Krai

is actually characterized by the following significant

features:

 the transfer of the task of providing local social

infrastructure to the municipal level with the

burden of residential real estate developers in

terms of the obligation to provide infrastructure

for the locations being developed;

 focusing exclusively on specific quantitative

assessments of local infrastructural provision,

which regional executive authorities are unable

to exert real influence on;

 disintegration of the functions of managing the

processes of creation and operation of

local/municipal social infrastructure facilities

and the lack of one-man management at the

municipal/regional levels;

 implementation of the main form of support for

local processes of infrastructural

modernization in the form of targeted regional

financing against the background of a constant

budget deficit (as of October 1, 2019, the state

debt of the region exceeded 110.6 billion

rubles, the regional budget deficit in 2019 is

projected at level 3.6-4 billion rubles);

 the lack of opportunities to influence the

quality of provided social and infrastructure

services;

 the lack of a regional system for monitoring the

satisfaction of the population of the region and

its constituent locations with the level of

infrastructure provision and the quality of

services provided, which can act as factors of

the stability of the regional settlement system,

or, conversely, the cause of irrevocable

migration.

3.3 Review of Forecasts for the

Development of Regional Social

Infrastructure

In accordance with the social and economic

component of the regional Development Strategy for

the long term in Krasnodar Krai in 2019-2024 the

following significant social trends were recorded and

predicted (Strategy, 2018):

 the steady growth of the region population with

low reproductive activity and the presence of

natural decline, due to growing migration

flows;

 the lack of infrastructure capabilities of

preschool and school blocks of the regional

educational system;

 the growth of intraregional differences in the

provision, accessibility and quality of health

care services;

 lack of opportunities to attract investment

financing in the field of physical culture and

mass sports, as well as culture due to the lack

ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure

288

of commercial attractiveness of such areas of

investments;

 a consistently high level of social protection

and services for vulnerable groups of the

population against the background of

operational problems in the functioning and

development of the corresponding

infrastructure of federal subordination.

Table 1: Forecast of the dynamics of the availability and level of use of the components of the municipal social infrastructure

of the city of Krasnodar for the period up to 2027 (in accordance with “Program for the Comprehensive Development of

Social Infrastructure of the Ministry of Defense of Krasnodar for 2017-2027”).

Target indicator Measuring unit 2019 2020 2021 2022/

2027

Additional places in organizations o

preschool education of municipal

subordination

places 3,900 1,0200 1,7300 171,900

Dynamics of the number of the

contingent of general education

organizations

thousand

people

138.00 140.20 143.50 156.80

Additional places in general

education organizations

places 56,000 22,000 26,500 1,053,250

Proportion of schools meeting the

classroom standar

% 86.80 89.30 95.20 1,000

Proportion of schools with one-shift

educational

rocess

% 250 420 510 1,000

Dynamics of the number of

stationary healthcare facilities for

the cit

ulation

unit 1,220 1,240 1,260 1,390

The growth of the involvement of

urban resident population in

systematic sports and physical

education

% 46.40 47.10 48.80 49.80

Dynamics of the number of citizens

involved in systematic sports and

sical education

thousand

people

407.30 408.30 409.30 409.60

Forecast of regular users of

municipal library resources

thousand

eople

148.00 154.00 162.10 199.80

Dynamics of members of cultural

associations and clubs

people 57,530 69,830 78,030 78,030

The growth of the contingent of

students in the field of art and

culture in the format of additional

education

people 123,100 125,200 125,200 141,200

At the same time, it is planned to achieve specific

results in terms of infrastructural support of municipal

social and economic processes:

 increasing the level of accessibility of

municipal organizations of preschool education

to 100% and eliminating queues for

kindergartens;

 full transition to a one-shift mode of

functioning of municipal comprehensive

schools;

 an increase in the number and capacity of

municipal health care organizations in

locations where intensive new construction is

underway;

 increasing the infrastructural capabilities of the

population of the municipality in terms of

access to municipal library funds and cultural

and leisure opportunities.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The central result consists in the formulation of the

author's position on the research topic, which consists

Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure

Innovation Design

289

in emphasizing the impossibility of systemic and

long-term social and economic development of a

specific territory (location, municipality, region,

macro region) without changing the existing

scientific and managerial approaches to

understanding the fundamental subjectivity of the

resident population as the main beneficiary of the

regional economy and solving the national economic

problem of a regional scale to increase the quality and

scale of social, social and economic interactions as

the basis for progressive and productive local and

regional economic activity.

Strengthening such forms of activity, in turn,

requires the implementation of local and regional

scenarios of expanded reproduction and social and

economic development, which are impossible outside

the infrastructural form of organizing the

corresponding processes. The needs of the population

of the territory for infrastructural services are specific

reasons and should act as the basis for choosing

directions for the development of regional social

infrastructure as a critically important component of

the regional economy, which determines the rates and

proportions of regional production and reproduction

processes.

The applied implementation of the priorities of

sustainable, balanced and systemic regional social

and economic development currently requires the

advanced development of the regional and the

municipal and local social infrastructure that form it,

while the growth of the regional competitiveness of

Krasnodar Krai directly depends on the improvement

of the characteristics of the reserve group of regional

labor potential, including in terms of developing and

improving the characteristics of regional human

capital - permanent residents of the territory with

entrepreneurial and innovative competencies. Such

dynamics is possible only with full-fledged social and

infrastructural support of local, municipal and

regional scale and requires appropriate targeted

efforts, the implementation of which will ensure the

mobilization and productive use of internal social and

economic factors and reserves in the regional

economy.

REFERENCES

Alberio, M., Sousa, J. (2020). The Resilient and Innovative

Spirit of the Nonprofit and Social Economy .University

of Alberta Libraries in Canadian Journal of Nonprofit

and Social Economy Research Canadian Journal of

Nonprofit and Social Economy Research, Volume 11,

pp 5-5; doi:10.29173/cjnser.2020v11n2a400

Antonyuk, V.S., Danilova, I.V., Mitel'man, S.A.,

Bulikeyeva, A.Zh. (2015). Upravleniye sotsial'noy

infrastrukturoy regionov v sisteme instrumentov

povysheniya kachestva zhizni naseleniya regionov.

Ekonomika regiona, 3:53-66. doi 10.17059/2015-3-5

Afonasova, M.A. (2018). K voprosu o drayverakh rosta

ekonomiki i kachestva zhizni naseleniya sel'skikh

territoriy. Alleya nauki, 5:256-259.

Balobanov, A.Ye., Golubev, S.V. (2012). Kachestvo zhizni

– klyuchevoy parametr sovremennoy strategii

mirovogo goroda. X Obshcherossiyskiy forum liderov

strategicheskogo planirovaniya: doklady uchastnikov.

SPb., Leont'yevskiy tsentr, 109–118.

Bykovskaya, I.V. (2012). Rol' i znacheniye sotsial'noy

infrastruktury v funktsionirovanii regional'nykh

sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem. Aktual'nyye

voprosy ekonomicheskikh nauk, 27:82-85.

Busquet, G. (2011). Spatial determinism and territorial

public action in France: Challenges and evolutions.

Journal of urban and regional analysis. 1 III. DOI:

10.37043/JURA.2011.3.1.5

Degil', O.V. (2012). Metodika opredeleniya kachestva

zhizni naseleniya regiona na osnove kompleksnogo

indikatora kachestva zhizni. Global'nyy nauchnyy

potentsial. №11: 132-138.

Galitskaya, V.A. (2018). Osobennosti sotsiokul'turnoy

modernizatsii v Tomskoy oblasti (na primere analiza

gosprogramm «innovatsionnoye razvitiye i

modernizatsiya ekonomiki» i «novoye kachestvo

zhizni»). Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo

universiteta. Filosofiya. Sotsiologiya. Politologiya. 45:

138-145. DOI: 10.17223/1998863Х/45/14

Glass, M.R., Addie, J.-P. D.,Nelles, J. (2019). Regional

infrastructures, infrastructural regionalism. Regional

Sudies, pp. 1651-1656.

https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2019.1667968

Hefferan, M., Fern, A., (2018). Questioning the value of

government support for start-up, knowledge-intensive

companies: emerging evidence and future options.

Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, Vol. 24, No.

1, pp. 78-95

Klimenko, O.I., Botalova M.Ye. (2018). Obzor

metodicheskogo instrumentariya otsenki regional'nogo

razvitiya sotsial'noy infrastruktury. Vestnik

Belgorodskogo universiteta kooperatsii, ekonomiki i

prava, 1(68):64-74.

Kozma, D.E. (2019). Comparative analysis of the

sustainable development strategies and indicators of the

V4. Deturope, 11(2):101-120.

Marques, T.S., Saraiva, M., Santinha, G., Guerra, M.

(2018). Re‐Thinking Territorial Cohesion in the

European Planning Context. Paper in regional

science.pp.547-572. DOI: 10.1111/1468-2427.12608.

Matz Dahlberg I. B. (2020). Immigration, new religious

symbols, and the dynamics of neighborhoods. Journal

of regional Science. 8(12),pp. 929-958.

Minyakova, T.Ye. (2012). Uroven' zhizni naseleniya:

perspektivy i tendentsii razvitiya (na primere Rossii i

Kitaya). Ul'yanovsk, UlGTU, 135 s.

ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure

290

Mora, T. (2018). Regional economic policy in Europe.

New challenges for theory, empirics and normative

interventions – Edited by Ulrike Stierle‐von Schütz,

Michael H. Stierle, Frederic B. Jennings Jr. and Adrian

T.H. Kuah. Papers in regional science Volume89,

Issue2, pp. 465-466.

Oomura, I., Yamashita, N., Tanoue H., Jorinbou, I. (2017).

A Study on the Grows and Development of the Infant

in Kagoshima Prefecture, Bulletin of the institute of

Minami-Kyushu regional science, №33, pp.19-27.

Strategiya (2018). Razrabotka Strategii sotsial'no-

ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Krasnodarskogo kraya na

dolgosrochnyy period. URL:

https://economy.krasnodar.ru/razr-strat/

Vavilina, N.D. (2013). Kachestvo zhizni v sisteme

innovatsionnogo razvitiya regiona. Metodologiya

analiza i sistema pokazateley kachestva zhizni

naseleniya. Mir nauki, №3, p. 3.

Vavilina, N.D. (2013). Kachestvo zhizni v sisteme

innovatsionnogo razvitiya regiona. Metodologiya

analiza i sistema pokazateley kachestva zhizni

naseleniya. Mir nauki, №3. S. 3.

Wetwitoo, J.J., Kato, H., (2017). Inter-regional

transportation and economic productivity: a case study

of regional agglomeration economies in Japan. The

Annals of Regional Science, volume 59, pp.321–344.

Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure

Innovation Design

291