Human Capital in Sustainable Development of the Information

Economy: Euphoria and Reality

Elena V. Krasova

Department of Economics and Management, Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service, 41, Gogol street,

Vladivostok, Russian Federation

Keywords: Human Capital, Information Economy, Sustainable Development, Information and Communication

Technologies, Technological Euphoria, Criticism of Post-Industrialism, Labor Productivity.

Abstract: The article is devoted to understanding the role of human capital in the context of sustainable information

economy development. The subject is very relevant and widely discussed in the world scientific literature.

There are some main approaches to human capital’s role defining: they are based on technological euphoria,

alarmism and study of real trends in economic development. A significant difference in the approaches does

not allow scientists and practitioners to find a general view on human capital’s future and suggests completely

different consequences and responses. The purpose of the research is a critical reflection on the human

capital’s role in the modern steadily developing information economy in the context of multiple approaches

and opinions. The author identifies the prerequisites and factors of the human capital theory development,

determines real trends in the information economy development and concludes that the euphoric and alarmist

approaches to human capital are unusable.

1 INTRODUCTION

Modern science inextricably links the economic

growth with technological development. A human

being with his intellectual potential, knowledge, skills

and competencies is a source of technology

development. Many scientists and specialists,

inspired by sustainable information and

communication technologies (ICT) development and

giant leaps in the IT companies’ capitalization, truly

believe in great perspective in transforming reality.

They regard a rapid growth in labor productivity in all

fields because of the interactive technologies

expansion, total digitalization and robotization.

Based on works of economists and sociologists of the

second half of the twentieth century – Daniel Bell,

Alvin Toffler, John Galbraith, Peter Drucker and

others, these scientists talk about fundamental

changes in socio-economic relations, lifestyle, work,

rest, i.e. in all spheres of social life and consciousness.

In the centre of these changes, there is a human. These

changes are justified by them in the context of our

civilization’s movement to the Sixth technological

cycle, the 4.0 Industrial revolution.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7847-0385

Technological euphoria accordingly changes the

attitude towards people and human capital. Some

experts view human capital as a leading factor in

scientific and technological progress, the main driver

of economic development (Hu, 2021; Novikov, 2009;

Koren et al, 2020). «The foothold of a new economic

structure based on ICT is intellectual activity, pushing

into the background the instrumental and machine

production of material goods» (Abdikeev, 2014).

«Labor is becoming more and more intelligent,

innovative and creative», manufacturing turns into

brainfacturing (Shirinkina, 2019). Science and

education as intellectual structures «will dominate

industrial production, agriculture, construction, etc.»

(Rakitov, 2018). Moreover, some scientists predict

that an era without work, an era of wealth and

enjoying life is coming soon. The era is expected to

give each person the opportunity to reveal his best

creative abilities (Hines, 2019; Campbell, 2019).

The other specialists on the contrary have an

alarmist opinion. The main problem for them is

reduction of jobs as a result of digitalization,

robotization and the Artificial Intelligence (AI)

intrusion. Mass structural unemployment, people’

Krasova, E.

Human Capital in Sustainable Development of the Information Economy: Euphoria and Reality.

DOI: 10.5220/0010593505330539

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 533-539

ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7

533

inability to work in a «digitalized economy»,

inefficiency of the existing education system,

mutation of personal characteristics for many people

are the main economic and social disasters that the

developed and developing countries may face in the

near future (Domini et al, 2020; Brynjolfsson and

McAfee, 2014; Pitaikina and Vlazneva, 2018). «The

question about a conflict of interests between human

capital and AI remains unresolved. As well as the risk

of forthcoming society in which there is no place for

human capital seems very high» (Gorodnova et al,

2019).

The third group of scientists investigates the

processes of ICT development and the role of human

capital without euphoria and alarmism. They speak

cautiously about changes and make their arguments

on data analysis, not on assumed opportunities or

threats. They are critical of the most established

concepts and popular theories, which seem to be

beyond any doubt. About 70 years have passed since

the beginning of the information revolution, and our

days can be called a good moment in order to draw

correct, adequate conclusions about the actual

dynamics of the techno-economics and the human

capital’s role in it.

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The purpose of the research is a critical reflection on

the human capital’s role in the modern steadily

developing information economy in the context of

multiple approaches and opinions. The research

objectives that reveal the purpose are identifying the

prerequisites and factors for the human capital theory

development, determining the real trends in the

information economy development, substantiating

the author’s opinion about the human capital’s role.

The methodological basis of the research includes

the theses of classical economic theory, the human

capital theory, the information economy concept, and

a number of related theories. The research is

methodologically based on general methods of

scientific analysis, including systematization,

generalization, abstraction, analogy, analysis and

synthesis. The article uses the concepts system by

modern science in the context of such categories as

human capital, sustainable development, ICT,

information economy, digital economy, production,

post-industrialism and others.

3 THE RESEARCH RESULTS

The active development of the human capital theory

as an independent research program fell on the Fifth

technological cycle period. In developed countries,

there was a scientific and technological breakthrough,

called later the information revolution. A high

volatility of consumption, income and employment

under the capitalism was also observed. The ICT

progress has significantly changed both production

technologies and the consuming structure in modern

society, lifestyle, and views on economic growth

sources. The main signs of the information revolution

are automation of production processes, new products

and services emergence, new fields of economic

activity. A number of USA economy researchers

believe that the most of productivity dynamics in the

United States in the twentieth century was caused just

by ICT as key technologies that formed a basic

innovations cluster in developed countries.

The development and commercialization of

inventions in the ICT field, made in the 1950s-1960s,

took a long time for education and training of both the

ICT developers and the ICT users. The training period

coincided with a pause in rates of productivity growth

in the 1970-1980s. However, the results of the

training were clearly seen in the second half of the

1990s, when the ICT efficiency had increased

sharply, and the period of computerization and

Internet expansion around the world had begun

(Greenwood and Yorukoglu, 1997). Western

scientists had reasons for expanding the fields of

knowledge, justifying the mechanism of human

capital’s inclusion into socio-economic development

models.

The ICT has significantly changed the nature and

structure of industrial and social relations, so «a post-

industrial society» had been become widely talked

about. The post-industrial society (economy) is

usually understood as an economy with dominant

high-tech sector with high labor productivity and a

relatively high share of the service sector. Forming

and establishing the post-industrial era is a

controversial and debatable question. Nevertheless,

the restructuring of the Western countries’

economies, and then the Eastern European countries’

economies, towards service branches, was definitely

equated to post-industrialism onset. This fact fastened

human capital with information technology

development.

As a base for explaining such connection, the

hypothesis about wide use of workers’ knowledge,

skills and competencies in value creation process

through the innovative ideas application to the

ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure

534

production process is considered. The popular

American futurist Alvin Toffler wrote that such

traditional factors as land, labor, and capital were

giving way to another key factor – knowledge.

Knowledge is a factor in the global powershift. The

knowledge database is being revolutionized, and

advances in different fields of knowledge, far from

the politics, are in fact inextricably linked to today’s

geopolitical explosions (Toffler, 1990). American

sociologist Lewis Mumford even challenged the

materialist dialectic, when said that throughout

human history humanity had had more essential needs

than just getting food. The needs had been based on

human brain capabilities and associated with human

self-identification. The domination of manufacturing

over all other human activities is nothing more than a

distorted view on history and on ourselves (Mumford,

1967).

John Galbraith outlined his vision of a new

industrial society as a key idea of transition in the

production sphere from the power of money to the

power of knowledge (Galbraith, 2004). Peter Drucker

picks out the increase in productivity of intellectuals

who produce knowledge, ideas, information as a key

factor in socio-economic development (Selections,

2004). Spanish sociologist Manuel Castells writes

that information transforms the production process,

makes to improve technologies, knowledge and

management on the base of the technologies,

knowledge and management. This circle increases the

productivity and efficiency of the economy (Castells,

2009). Many modern economists talk about the

information society as a kind of the most acceptable

version of the post-industrial society for today. In the

society, most of the workers are engaged in

production, storage, processing and sale of

information, especially its highest form – knowledge.

Thus, knowledge and professional competencies

are reviewed as a productive resource, capital in

economy that creates, distributes and uses knowledge

to ensure its growth and competitiveness.

«Knowledge enriches all industries, all sectors and all

participants in economic processes», takes the form

of «scientific and various high-tech products,

innovations, highly qualified services, education and

competencies» (Abdikeev, 2014). At the level of

international organizations, we can hear that

information and knowledge are the centre of

sustainable economic growth and development, and

the ability to produce and effectively use information

is becoming a vital skill for many people. In

economic science such concepts as «information

economy», «innovative economy», «knowledge

economy», «intellectual economy», «neo-industrial

economy», «cognitive economy», «creative

economy», etc. have become widespread. In the

context of these ideas, the only way to move towards

the knowledge economy is human capital as a

complex of this knowledge and competencies.

Another aspect of relationship between

information economy and human capital is the

development of consumer values and consumer

culture because of mass production and increase of

goods assortment in the twentieth century. A human

with his knowledge and competencies is not only a

subject of industrial relations, but also an active

consumer. According to the needs raising principle,

the more educated a person is (the more knowledge

and skills he has), the more his needs raise and

become more complex, and the more active he

demands goods and services. In practice, it is already

difficult to distinguish between a producing person

and a consuming person: the satisfaction of some

needs determines the emergence of others. G. Ford

wrote, «Labor is more a buyer than a seller», (Ford,

1926). Lifestyle, wealth level, environment and much

more are formed not by social group, not origin, not

age, not living place, but level of education, social

and professional environment.

We can say that the external, material content of

life depends mainly on the internal content, which is

reflected be the level of human capital’s

development. We began to see it clearly in the

informatization period. American political scientist,

famous researcher of post-industrialism Zbigniew

Brzezinski wrote, «The changes brought about by

communications and computers greatly contribute to

the connectedness of a society whose members are in

continuous and close auditory-visual contacts,

constantly interacting, participating in intense social

trials». Brzezinski supposed that the post-

industrialism was a society, which culturally,

psychologically, socially and economically had been

formed under the technique and electronics affect

(Brzezinski, 2007). Such view made to strengthen the

correlation between the human capital theory and the

knowledge economy concept.

The third important aspect of the human capital

theory development is the socio-psychological one.

The possibility of almost complete satisfaction of

primary needs opens up the potential for secondary

needs implementation. Development of some or many

human capital components furthers the growth of self-

respect, love and favor of others, self-realization, i.e.

everything that meets the «enjoying life» concept. The

psychological nature of the human capital theory

popularity has to be discovered later, throughout the

21st century. However, already today an exciting idea

Human Capital in Sustainable Development of the Information Economy: Euphoria and Reality

535

about human mind’s priority over machines, about

human as a main subject of economic relations and

economic development, gives the human capital

theory a true charm. At the same time, the strict

scientific analysis of the «capital» holders’ living

realities is moved over to the background.

4 THE RESULTS DISCUSSION

It is paradoxically, the variety of concepts and views

that characterize the new quality of socio-economic

relations did not make to clarify and define the human

capital’s role in the modern economy at all. The

emphasis on information and knowledge, the desire

to highlight the intellectual, non-material component

of economic development led to a bias in the study of

resource structure, to unreasonable underestimation

of the industrial base of society. On the background,

the number of utopian and alarmist publications

devoted to humanity’s future has significantly

increased in the world scientific literature. They do

not take into account the real trends and problems as

a rule. Therefore, after a long period of

«information», «technological» euphoria today is the

right moment to criticize the post-industrial ideas.

Contrary to post-industrialism concept

conclusions, the importance of industrial production

does not fall at all. According to the World Bank data,

the share of industrial production in the total world

GDP in 1995 was about 32%, in 2015 – 25%, in 2020

– 30%. Average annual growth rates of world

industrial production for 1998-2017 were just slightly

lower than the world GDP ones: 2.96% versus 3.49%

resp. (World Bank, 2020). Russian scientists’

calculations for 2000-2019 show that number of

industrial workers in the world has increased by 35%

and share of industrial workers in the total number of

workers has increased from 21.2% to 22.85%

(Pavlov, 2020). There is the highest concentration of

working technologies as well as effective

organizational systems in industrial production, since

the approbation and commercialization of

innovations take place mostly in industry. We can see

it in the fact that the share of industrial production in

GDP in many countries exceeds the share of industry

in the total number of employed (FSSS, 2020;

Tsareva et al, 2017).

We challenge the conclusion of the intellectual

economy (or knowledge economy) followers about

due reduction of material production and material

assets because of ICT development and digitalization.

In the heart of Toffler-Drucker society there is an

intellectual who does not dig holes or sew shoes.

However, even the most intelligent person lives in a

house and wears clothes. This means that someone is

building the house, and someone is sewing the

clothes. The intangible component cannot exist

without a material basis, regardless of technology

development level. Moreover, the more refined the

technology is, the stronger material base should be.

Just imagine that ultra-modern expensive software

cannot function if you turn off the computer’s power.

Let’s turn to statistical analysis. The digital

technologies have been used in business models of

different companies already more than 50 years. Data

for 50 the most innovatively developed countries of

the world do not show any significant correlation

between innovative development level and

industrialization level of the countries (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Innovation Indices and Industrialization Levels

for 50 the most innovatively developed countries in the

world, 2020. Sources: UNDP; World Bank, 2020.

Also we can see a weak correlation between

human development index and industrialization level

for 50 countries with the highest human development

index (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Human Development Indices and

Industrialization Levels for 50 countries with the highest

human development indices, 2020. Sources: UNDP; World

Bank, 2020.

Standard

Deviation

of х = 8,4

27,2

Average

share of

industry in

GDP for

50 the

most

innovativel

y …

0204060

Innovation Index , units

Industrialization Level, %

Standard

Deviation

of х = 8,0

28,2

Average

share of

industry in

GDP for

countries

with the …

0,7

0,75

0,8

0,85

0,9

0,95

1,05

0204060

Human Development Index, unit

Industrialization Level, %

ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure

536

Data presented above let make a conclusion that

development of innovation and human capital does

not necessarily lead to reduction in material

production. High indicators of innovations and

human capital development can be achieved both in

industrial economy and in non-industrial one.

Industrialization level is a stand-alone indicator,

which depends first on the resource base and

production specialization of the country. Besides that,

while speaking about the reduction in industry share

in some developed countries (for example, the United

States), we should take into account the relocation of

industry outside the country borders, in particular, to

Asian countries, as well as the measures to protect

intellectual property, which significantly inflate the

value of intangible assets in the USA economy.

Concepts «postindustrialism» and «knowledge

economy» are some of the most deeply established

and at the same time some of the most controversial.

We must notice knowledge is the base of any

economy: human invented the cart, the steam engine,

and the internal combustion engine with knowledge

of the nature laws. The difference is that by the end

of the twentieth century in some high-tech industries,

knowledge has become not a unique, but flow

product. It is created and used simultaneously and

constantly in the production process. Information and

knowledge circulation leads to their rapid

obsolescence and need to obtain new ones in order to

maintain and/or increase the labor productivity. So,

intellectual should learn all his life and it

automatically leads to human capital spheres

development, first of all education and vocational

training. Does it mean a new stage of civilization

development called the knowledge economy? Or is it

just a change of technological landscape on the

background of the same historical form of the society

organization?

Today we do not consider informatization as a

source of threats or unclear perspectives that go

beyond the scientific vision. The sustainable ICT

development does not mean forcing economic growth

yet. Knowledge and competencies creation does not

guarantee their effective application. Practice proves

it. «Now we are not seeing neither a sharp

acceleration in labor productivity (very likely, the

situation is exactly the opposite), nor radical

breakdown of usual people lifestyle. The subject of

discussion is not so much real as expected situation.

No one can be sure whether it will come or not»

(Kapeliushnikov, 2017).

Let us study labor productivity (GDP per person

employed) in the world in dynamics for 1960-2018.

We can see the diverse dynamics: the highest rates of

productivity growth (1.9%) were recorded in 1960-

1973, then 1.6% – in 1974-1991, 1.8% – in 1992-

2007, and 0.8% – in 2008-2018 (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Labor productivity dynamics in the world

economy, for 1960-2018. Source: Labor, 2020.

The reasons for the global slowdown in labor

productivity are discussed in scientific literature. The

most reasonable is the version about a significant

reassessment of ICT in non-manufacturing,

intermediary and consumer sectors – trade,

marketing, finance, entertainment, social networks,

etc. The capitalization of IT companies is growing,

mainly due to the sale of services, which helps to

attract and serve customers. Mobile phones and other

gadgets surround modern people to save their

personal time and energy. At the same time, in people

consciousness there is a frequent substitution of

knowledge effectiveness signs with consumer

informatization signs. The last is a special market

segment where consumers demand goods that

simplifies communicating and searching information.

Largely the ICT are «useless for solving

humanitarian, social, and environmental problems.

They contribute to the technological progress just a

little» (Buzgalin, 2018). Today the consumer

component of human capital is the main source of

profit creation for large transnational corporations. As

for Russia, according to some scientists, there is a

«trend to return to an extensive growth model, when

labor productivity contribution to the added value

decreases» (Smorodinskaya et al, 2019; Andreev et

al, 2020). As a result, there is no need to train highly

qualified personnel, since «the existing economic

model is based on the reduction of labor to the

simplest forms and operations (underdeveloped

human capital)» (Grechko, 2016; Trofimenkova,

2018).

40664 in

1960

51773 in

1973

38331 in

1991

50683 in

2007

54380 in

2018

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

Thousand dollars per one

employed

Human Capital in Sustainable Development of the Information Economy: Euphoria and Reality

537

5 CONCLUSIONS

We can answer those who adheres to euphoric view

the following. «Humanity has met the XXI century

with highly developed, but skewed production forces,

which unable to create a material basis for

overcoming poverty for billions people» (Buzgalin,

2018). It could hardly talk about a society without

labor, about a free creative people’s activity in the

condition of global poverty problem, expansion of

territories with anthropogenic environmental

disasters, and significant differentiation of countries

by the economic development and human capital

level. Rather, we can talk about an increase in

dependence on computers, software and various kinds

of information services, about the uneven distribution

of labor intensity between professions, about the

convergence of work and personal time, about high

intellectual and psycho-emotional overloads while

working with huge mass of information. The work

content is changing rapidly, however, the behavioral

mechanisms, the organization of human activity

remain the same.

Alarmists expecting a massive expansion of

technological unemployment should take into account

the declining labor productivity growth rates and their

generally limited impact on the dynamics of labor

demand in the medium term. There is no «robotization

of human», no «inclusion of robots in our everyday

reality», no «artificial substitutes for human capital in

everyday life», no «crossing of info-, nano-, bio-,

cognitive technologies all over the humanity» as some

authors write (Gorodnova et al, 2019). There is neither

substitution of workers for robots on conveyors, nor

substitution of accountants and secretaries for

information systems, as some write (Shirinkina,

2019). Technological euphoria seriously affects the

ability to think critically. This is especially clearly

presented in the Russian scientific literature.

Leading scientists note that unlimited

development of human needs is the main factor of the

sustainable employment growth in the long term. «As

long as some people needs are still unsatisfied, there

will be no shortage of jobs. Total substitution of

people for machines can be imagined only in a

situation of complete saturation, i.e. in a world where

there is no problem of limited resources»

(Kapeliushnikov, 2017).

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