Personnel Training System Intersectoral Modeling in the Context of
Digitalization
Natalia Yu. Anisimova
a
Institute of Economics and Management, V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Sevastopolskaya St. 21/4, Simferopol,
Russia
Keywords: Personnel Training, Additional Education, Intersectoral Balance, Modeling, Digital Economy.
Abstract: The article reflects the testing the intersectoral modeling methodology results of the regional economy need
for highly qualified personnel. Based on the conducted monographic research, the official and scientific-based
methods shortcomings are identified, and possible leveling ways are proposed. On the example of the
Republic of Crimea, the additional professional education system modeling is carried out, taking into account
the possibilities of its digitalization and the specifics of individual sectors of the region's economy seasonal
functioning. Based on the data on the gross regional product and the employees average monthly salary, the
number of employees calculations in the forecast period were carried out by extrapolation using the dynamics
series trend models. Reasonable indicators of the quantitative and qualitative needs of the Republic of Crimea
economy for highly qualified personnel can be used for strategic and tactical planning by state and municipal
authorities.
1 INTRODUCTION
Digitalization is rapidly changing all spheres of
public life. The training system is not only placed at
the center of this process, but also produces digital
changes itself, being self-taught (Lalitha and Sreeja,
2020). The transformation of educational
technologies, the blended learning forms
development, the graduates digital competencies
formation is not a complete list of the modern training
system innovative opportunities. The result of the
implementation of these changes should be an
increase in the industrial and labor relations
efficiency, provided with qualitatively new highly
qualified personnel characteristics.
Education, as the basis of the personnel training
system, is to a certain extent a public good, as a result
of which it occupies an important place in the state
social policy. At the same time, the authorities are
interested not only in the budgetary, but also in the
economic efficiency of the educational process,
expressed in the subsequent growth of the gross
domestic product. Models of intersectoral balances of
the personnel training system and the labor market are
developed and applied at various levels of
a
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5975-3213
management as an element of strategic planning
(Podverbnykh and Samokhvalova, 2019).
The purpose of the article is the scientific
substantiation of the personnel training system
intersectoral modeling methodology in the conditions
of digital industrial and labor relations.
2 METHODS
Modeling the digital economy needs for highly
qualified personnel has its own characteristics in each
country and region (Leshukov, 2020). In the Russian
Federation it is based on the methods of forming the
state task for the educational services provision,
control figures for the students admission and the
needs of employers in personnel (Fridman and
Verbetskaia, 2020). A positive trend of the current
regulatory framework is the gradual transition from
calculating the number of applicants to determining
the number of graduates required by the economy.
However, in general, the methodology of the
personnel training system inter-sectoral balance
adopted at the state level does not have adaptability
to modern digital relations in the labor market.
Anisimova, N.
Personnel Training System Intersectoral Modeling in the Context of Digitalization.
DOI: 10.5220/0010596407130718
In Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 713-718
ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7
Copyright
c
2021 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
713
The annual economy staffing needs are covered
mainly by educational organizations graduates, as
well as partly by retraining the unemployed,
interregional and foreign labor migration (Sigova,
2009). At the same time, the potential of personnel
professional training and retraining is not taken into
account by authors specializing in forecasting the
economy need for qualified personnel (Subanakova
and Byuraeva, 2018).
Official and scientific-based methods are focused
on the offer of educational services that are formed at
the higher, secondary and primary levels of
professional training. Modern realities dictate the
need for education level continuous improvement and
competencies expansion throughout the entire career.
It requires taking into account the educational
services market opportunities to quickly solve these
problems within the institute additional professional
education framework through the tools of
professional retraining and advanced training of both
persons with secondary vocational and (or) higher
education, and those in the process of obtaining the
education. It should also be taken into account that
thanks to digital educational technologies and
distance learning, the response time of the
educational services market to the current economy
demands is reduced to several months (Lee and Choi,
Cho, 2019).
Another important addition to the training system
intersectoral modeling methodology at the regional
level is to take into account structural changes in the
economy within a single forecast period (in this study
– a year). Regional specifics, expressed in the
contrasting seasonality of the activities number (in
particular, in the agro-industrial and recreational-
tourist complexes) (Tsehla and Plugar, 2017), dictate
the need for the labor market flexible adaptation to
irregular demand, which, to a certain extent, may also
be solved within the framework of additional
professional education institution.
3 RESULTS
Testing of the methodology for modeling the
personnel training system in the digitalization
conditions was carried out on the example of the
Republic of Crimea, a region that has a pronounced
seasonality of the main budget-forming industries
development.
As input parameters that determine the overall
dynamics of the additional professional education
market development in the region, the indicators were
considered, the official forecast of which is given in
regional and sectoral development programs, as well
as the Republic of Crimea Socio-Economic
Development Strategy until 2030, i.e. the growth rate
of the economy by the activity type, the number of
employees for the current period, the average salary
(and the index of its growth) by economic sector, the
volume of investment, the labor resources use
seasonality coefficient by type of economic activity.
Forecast indicators of the economy dynamics and
investment activity in the context of economic
activities are also reflected in the annual forecasts of
the Republic of Crimea socio-economic
development, officially published by the Ministry of
Economic Development of the region.
According to current documents and official
statistics, the Republic of Crimea is expected to
prioritize the development of health resorts and
tourism, healthcare, agro-industrial and fisheries
complexes, chemical industry and construction. This
is confirmed by the dynamics of the gross regional
product of the Republic of Crimea for 2015-2019,
presented in Table 1. The largest specific weight is
occupied by trade and real estate operations (on
average, 16.0% and 11.0%). The share of agriculture,
manufacturing and public administration (9.0%),
healthcare (8.0%) and construction (7.0%) is a bit
lower, but at a fairly high level.
ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure
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Table 1: The gross regional product of the Republic of Crimea structure, on average for 2015-2019, %.
T
yp
e of activit
y
S
p
ecific wei
g
ht, %
A
g
riculture, forestr
y
, huntin
g
, fishin
g
and fish farmin
g
9
Minin
g
o
p
erations 3
Manufacturing industries 9
Electricity, gas and steam provision; air conditioning 5
Water supply; water disposal, waste collection and disposal organization,
p
ollution elimination activities 1
Construction 7
Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles and motorcycles repai
r
16
Transportation and storage 6
Hotels and caterin
g
establishments activities 3
Information and communication activities 3
Financial and insurance activities 1
Activities related to real estate transactions 10
Professional, scientific and technical activities 2
Administrative activities and related additional services 2
Public administration and militar
y
securit
y
; social securit
y
9
Education 4
Health and social services activities 8
Activities in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment 1
Other types of services provision 1
Total for the surve
y
ed t
yp
es of economic activit
y
100
The main trigger for both employed persons who
are able to master new professions or move to a
qualitatively new level of professional training, and
for applicants who choose the direction of their future
professional activity, is the absolute value and the
average salary growth rate, which causes an increase
in the supply of higher-paid professions and
positions. The average level enterprises employees
and organizations nominal wages of the Republic of
Crimea for 2017-2019 is presented in Table 2:
Table 2: Average monthly nominal salary of the 1st
employee in the Republic of Crimea, on average for 2017-
2019, RUB.
T
yp
e of activit
y
rub.
Managers 56,505
Specialists of the highest level of
q
ualification 35,944
Mi
d
-level s
p
ecialists 29,886
Employees engaged in the preparation and
execution of documentation, accounting and
maintenance 25,973
Employees of the service and trade sector,
p
rotection of citizens and
p
ro
p
ert
y
22,289
Qualified personnel in agriculture, forestry,
fish farmin
g
and fishin
g
27,512
Qualified personnel in industry, construction,
transport, and related occupations 32,346
Operators of production plants and machines,
assemblers and drivers 31,807
Unqualified personnel 18,723
From the data given in Table 2, it follows that the
highest level of average wages in the Republic of
Crimea is offered by the construction and mining
industries. In second place in terms of remuneration
are the categories of workers in the region electricity
and water supply industries. The average level of
wages is observed in the sectors of trade,
transportation and storage, information and
communication, and healthcare. The agricultural
workers remuneration is comparable to the real estate
transactions activities. The least attractive activity,
from the point of view of remuneration, is the activity
in the field of culture, sports, leisure and
entertainment of the Republic of Crimea.
The number of employees calculation in the
forecast period was carried out by extrapolation from
trend models of the dynamics series, taking into
account official information on the trends in the
development of the region economy and expert
adjustments (Antyukhova and Kasatkin, 2021). All
trend models constructed for each main type of
economic activity are statistically significant and
have a determination coefficient higher than 0.7. The
calculation data are summarized in Table 3.
Personnel Training System Intersectoral Modeling in the Context of Digitalization
715
Table 3: Forecast of the number of people employed in the
economy of the Republic of Crimea, 2022.
Type of activit
y
p
eople
Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and
fish farmin
g
8,237
Minin
g
o
p
erations 2,863
Manufacturing industries 35,043
Electricity, gas and steam provision; air
conditionin
g
11,096
Water supply; water disposal, waste
collection and disposal organization,
p
ollution elimination activities 10,450
Construction 11,874
Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles
and motorc
y
cles re
p
ai
r
13,430
Transportation and storage 31,040
Hotels and catering establishments activities 12,876
Information and communication activities 2,105
Financial and insurance activities 4,110
Activities related to real estate transactions 3,860
Professional, scientific and technical
activities 6,120
Administrative activities and related
additional services 14,730
Public administration and military security;
social securit
y
40,056
Education 56,034
Health and social services activities 70,901
Activities in the field of culture, sports,
leisure and entertainment 7,050
Other types of services provision 4,785
Total for the surveyed types of economic
activit
y
8,237
Based on the calculations, the growth of the
demand for highly qualified personnel in the region is
expected in the following industries: manufacturing,
water supply, construction, transportation and
storage, hotels and catering enterprises,
administrative activities and public administration,
health care.
The reducing the number of people employed in
the Republic of Crimea trend will be typical for
agriculture, mining, electricity supply, trade,
information and communication activities, finance
and insurance, real estate transactions, science and
education, culture and sports.
In general, it should be noted that by 2022, in
relation to the level of 2019, the total expected
increase in employment (by 56,416 people) will
exceed the reduction (by -29,938 people) in the
number of jobs in industries with a negative trend in
the development of the labor market by 26,478 jobs.
Of course, the upcoming changes will require the
working-age population to improve their skills,
expand their competencies, change their occupation,
and adapt flexibly to the new digital industrial and
labor relations (Oberländer et al., 2020).
The calculations results are the basis for
determining the potential market capacity of
additional professional education programs in the
region. Since it was found that the proportion of
students studying simultaneously in the programs of
higher, secondary and additional professional
education in the region over the past five years was
less than 1.0%, this number was not taken into
account by us among the persons potentially focused
on professional retraining and advanced training.
In general, in the framework of the proposed
methodology for predicting the number of students
enrolled in secondary professional education
programs, higher professional education and at the
same time mastering additional professional
education programs, it is necessary to calculate the
trend equations in the context of enlarged groups of
training areas/specialties on the retrospective data
basis.
4 DISCUSSION
In order to characterize the prospective situation on
the labor market of the Republic of Crimea more
fully, the annual additional demand of the economy
for personnel by type of economic activity was
calculated.
In the framework of modeling the interaction of
the additional professional education market and the
regional labor market, the additional annual demand
of the economy for personnel was considered, due to
both the economy growth and investment activity in
the region, and the replacement due to natural-age
retirement.
The values of these parameters were calculated
according to the method of V.A. Gurtov and E.A.
Pitukhin (Gurtov and Pitukhin, 2017):
∆𝐿
,
𝐿
,
𝐿
,
(1)
where ∆𝐿
,
is the additional demand of the
regional economy for personnel caused by the
development of industries (the need for "growth");
𝐿
,
- the number of people employed in the
economy by type of economic activity (e) in the year
(t).
𝐿
,
𝑘
,
∗𝐿
,
𝐿
,
- additional demand of the regional economy
for personnel caused by the working population aging
(the need for "replacement");
𝑘
,
- the coefficient of natural and age-related
attrition of employees in the economic sector (e).
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716
In addition, an important methodological
addition, from our point of view, is to take into
account the seasonal factor and calculate the
additional seasonal demand for personnel𝐿
,
.
Thus, the total annual additional demand includes
three growth factors, they are economic development,
natural-age retirement, seasonality, which is
mathematically expressed by the formula:
∆𝐷
,
∆𝐿
,
𝐿
,
𝐿
,
(2)
The parameter 𝐿
,
is proposed to be calculated as
an absolute indicator of seasonality for (e) type of
activity, which is equal to the maximum value of the
difference between the actual level of the series and
the average annual value smoothed along the trend
line for the forecast period (t). Its final value is subject
to expert adjustment, taking into account the industry
development scale:
𝐿
,
max 𝑦
𝑦
(3)
𝐿
,
- additional seasonal demand for personnel (e)
type of activity in the period (t);
𝑦
– the actual level of the series for period (j);
𝑦
– the average annual value of the aligned
(theoretical) level.
We propose to forecast the seasonality of the labor
resources use with the help of an additive model in
the context of economic activities. This procedure
was carried out according to official statistics for
2015-2019, with a preliminary alignment of the series
according to the trend equation.
The calculation data is presented in Table 4.
Table 4: Forecast of the total additional personnel needs of the Republic of Crimea economy, 2022.
Type of activit
y
p
eople
A
g
riculture, forestr
y
, huntin
g
, fishin
g
and fish farmin
g
110
Minin
g
o
p
erations -644
Manufacturin
g
industries 4,694
Electricity, gas and steam provision; air conditioning 71
Water supply; water disposal, waste collection and disposal
or
g
anization,
p
ollution elimination activities 1,242
Construction 2,611
Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles and motorcycles repai
r
-337
Transportation and storage 4,693
Hotels and caterin
g
establishments activities 4,223
Information and communication activities -829
Financial and insurance activities -586
Activities related to real estate transactions -237
Professional, scientific and technical activities -890
Administrative activities and related additional services 2,375
Public administration and militar
y
securit
y
; social securit
y
3,111
Education 1,804
Health and social services activities 9,639
Activities in the field of culture, sports, leisure and ente
r
tainment -1,293
Other types of services provision 2,759
Total for the surve
y
ed t
yp
es of economic activit
y
32,516
The proposed approach allows us to take into
account the actual employment dynamics during the
year, to track industries with high seasonal
fluctuations in the level of employment, and also to
take into account structural shifts in personnel needs
caused by changes in the proportions in the economy
of the region.
As a result of the calculations, by 2022 the total
additional need for personnel in all sectors of the
economy will amount to 32,516 people, including due
to growth it will ammount 12,832 people, due to
retirement it will ammount 13,283 people, due to
seasonality it will ammount 6,400 people. At the
same time, due to the seasonal factor, the greatest
demand is observed in agriculture, electricity supply,
hotel and restaurant business, education, as well as in
health care. At the expense of retirement it is
observed in education and health care, as well as in
manufacturing and public service. Due to the growth
it can be seen in manufacturing, transport and
communications, hotel and restaurant business,
administrative and public services, health care of the
Republic of Crimea.
5 CONCLUSION
Summing up the results of the conducted research, it
can be stated that intersectoral modeling of the
Personnel Training System Intersectoral Modeling in the Context of Digitalization
717
personnel training system in the digitalization
conditions requires the adaptation of the applied
methods at all levels of management. The
opportunities for self-education provided by the
digital economy throughout the entire period of an
individual's working life open up broad prospects for
the additional professional education system
development. The approbation of the methodology
for modeling the number of labor resources for the
needs of the regional economy of the Republic of
Crimea, taking into account the peculiarities of its
seasonal nature, indicates the possibility of its
application by the regional authorities. The
prospective nature of the intersectoral planning model
allows us to predict the effectiveness of both the
region education system and its economy as a whole.
The area of further research of the personnel
training organization methodology in the digital
industrial and labor relations system is in the plane of
scientific substantiation of indicators and criteria for
measuring digital labor.
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