Table 9: Returns of B&H strategy and LSTM on numerical
data.
6 CONCLUSIONS
We developed a system which follows the trends of
stocks. After experimenting with the four stock
tickers and each dataset separately, we concluded that
the best scenario for a potential investor is to follow
the LSTM method with the numerical/economical
data.
Understanding the reasons for this observation,
and more specifically identifying the signal in the
sentiment data, is one of the focuses of our future
work. As a motivation, we note that there are many
cases that the LSTM method with sentiment data had
greater returns in comparison to a passive investor.
We argue that these returns can be possibly improved
in the future by including more quality data such as
news titles or articles, or even increasing the volume
of tweets acquired. There are also different
techniques that could be implemented, like ontologies
(Kontopoulos, Berberidis, Dergiades and Bassiliades,
2013) which with the help of more research could
prove to further enhance the results. Overall,
Sentiment analysis turned out to have some potential
for the future, as it was profitable, and sometimes a
better solution than a passive investment. It was
important to test these results over a long period of
two years (~500 business days) in order to come into
conclusions for the scale of the profits of each
method. Based on our results, it appears that the
LSTM method works better than the other machine
learning methods tested. Our research is based or real
hard and soft stock tickers’ data and provides realistic
results that can be used by financial advisors.
In our future work, we are planning to develop our
system to an autonomous system which predicts, each
day, the trend of the stock ticker. For this to work long
term, it is necessary to train the system online over
time to keep it up to date. We will also try alternative
mechanisms to utilize different types of data, to
further improve the prediction accuracy.
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