Sustainable Regional Development based on the Inflation Forecasts: The Adaptive Models Application

I. A. Astrakhantseva, M. D. Ermolaev, A. S. Kutuzova

2021

Abstract

The article proves the dependence of the regions sustainable development on the inflationary processes dynamics. The practice of using various mathematical models to predict the consumer price index is considered. The experience in the regional inflation forecasting on the basis of a recurrent neural network is presented. The mechanism of forecasting the inflation level on the basis of adaptive models is shown. The algorithm was tested on the basis of indicators for the Ivanovo region. The source of the primary data was the monthly data of the chain consumer price indices (CPI) in the Ivanovo region in 2009-2020. The predictive model was validated on the basis of the consumer price index data for the first three months of 2021. Independently, the issue of assessing the federal-level inflation dynamics impact on the regional-level inflation dynamics is considered.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Astrakhantseva I., Ermolaev M. and Kutuzova A. (2021). Sustainable Regional Development based on the Inflation Forecasts: The Adaptive Models Application. In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS, ISBN 978-989-758-597-5, pages 313-319. DOI: 10.5220/0010667800003223

in Bibtex Style

@conference{wfsds21,
author={I. A. Astrakhantseva and M. D. Ermolaev and A. S. Kutuzova},
title={Sustainable Regional Development based on the Inflation Forecasts: The Adaptive Models Application},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS,},
year={2021},
pages={313-319},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010667800003223},
isbn={978-989-758-597-5},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS,
TI - Sustainable Regional Development based on the Inflation Forecasts: The Adaptive Models Application
SN - 978-989-758-597-5
AU - Astrakhantseva I.
AU - Ermolaev M.
AU - Kutuzova A.
PY - 2021
SP - 313
EP - 319
DO - 10.5220/0010667800003223