Problems of Developing Methodology for Assessing and

Strengthening Stress Resistance of the Russian Economy

V. M. Bezdenezhnykh and V. I. Prasolov

Department of economic security and risk-management, Financial University under Government of the Russian Federation,

Moscow

Keywords: Stress resistance, complex socio-economic system, assessment of the level of stress resistance, economic

security, risk management system, formation of a stress management system.

Abstract: Currently, the economic and management concept of stress resistance is absent as a methodological model in

academic analysis and in management practice. This is accompanied by the lack of Russian scientific activity

in the articulation of stress resistance in the discourse of national risk-oriented management, while at the level

of individual economic entities (for example, financial and credit institutions), stress testing is used quite

actively in order to strengthen the stability of organizations. It is necessary to develop a unified interpretation

(since this is, to a large extent, a conventional form) of the Russian-language concept of resilience, as well as

to determine the main directions of scientific study of this problem.

1 INTRODUCTION

Over the past 20 years, we have become accustomed

to the constant crisis phenomena in our lives and in

general have learned to live in such a reality,

monitoring oil and currency rates, political events and

hedging various risks. The COVID-19 pandemic has

become a new experience for the global economy. It

is unlikely that in 2018-2019, someone assumed that

2020 would be held under the banner of a global

pandemic, which would lead to a significant drop-in

business activity in Russia and the world's largest

economies, an increase in the costs caused by it, while

at the same time losing income at all levels. The

current situation has shown the importance of a

scenario approach in planning and budgeting,

including those that we do not expect to be likely. The

correct construction of stress forecasts at the same

time becomes an important business task (Palmer,

2013; Trofimov, 2021).

When conducting discussions on global and

regional problems of practical application of

measures to strengthen the stress resistance of large

socio-economic systems, wide interest was noted by

such leading international organizations as the UN,

OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development), IMF, IEF in Davos (Switzerland),

regional economic organizations. Back in 2016, the

European Union discussed and adopted a program of

strengthening resilience (stress resistance) as the

basis for the idea of a global strategy in its foreign

policy and ensuring security in Europe.

The concept of resistance to stress at the level of

complex socio-economic systems has only become

more and more diversely used in the research and

practice of organizations at various levels (mainly

large systems) in the last 12-15 years. Stress

(sometimes the term shock borrowed from medical

practice is used) is usually considered the impact on

complex multilevel economic systems of unlikely,

but very significant in terms of consequences,

manifestations of shock threats and risks. The

expanding practice of consulting and expert activities,

especially in the credit and banking sector, has

gradually consolidated the term stress resistance of a

complex system in the field of risk management as an

element of overall management of an organization

(Trofimov, 2021). In economics, in addition to the

early stages of ecology, such works have found

application, first of all, in the financial and credit

sphere (they have become mandatory), there are some

examples of research on food stress resistance of the

national economy, energy stress resistance, fire stress

resistance and in a number of other areas of economy

(Blaschke, 2001).

A noticeable and quite independent distribution of

the system of measures to strengthen stress resistance

Bezdenezhnykh, V. and Prasolov, V.

Problems of Developing Methodology for Assessing and Strengthening Stress Resistance of the Russian Economy.

DOI: 10.5220/0010695700003169

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc-Practical Conference "Ensuring the Stability and Security of Socio-Economic Systems: Overcoming the Threats of the Crisis Space" (SES 2021),

pages 161-164

ISBN: 978-989-758-546-3

161

was reflected in the security programs of the leading

countries of the world, the number of which grew

from year to year (UN Resolution, 2020). The basic

model of economic regulation is based on the

conformity of the basic provisions of the doctrine of

strengthening stress resistance to the concept of the

neoliberal paradigm of sustainable development.

Emphasis is placed on introducing the concept of

control parameters and determining their relationship

to the parameters of the systems controlled by them.

This model approach can be defined as a separate

stage in the development of theoretical concepts for

assessing the stress resistance of complex systems as

a mechanism for regulating the stability of the

development of complex socio-economic systems.

The next step in the development of assessment

models of stress tolerance in anti-stress management

was forward and backward modeling as a task

focused on the vulnerability of regulatory systems for

their growth trajectory. Such practice of specifying

evaluation vectors as a certain kind of rationalization,

when literally executed, can lead to a reduction in

control actions, a reduction in the horizon of control

forecasting. This is confirmed in some of today's

decisions by leading Western states. Management of

a complex system ceases to be an end in itself for the

work of the management system, and state interests

come into conflict with the practice of choosing

directions and development goals that do not

contribute to strengthening its stress resistance

(Romanova, 2017). New model approaches are

needed that are more consistent with the modern

practice of making and implementing control

decisions to strengthen the stability of complex open

multilevel systems (Henry J., Kok C., (2017).

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

Currently, the concept of resilience (resilience –

vitality, flexibility or pliability) is absent as a

theoretically and methodologically grounded and

economic and management model in academic

analysis and in practice. This is manifested in the

unsettled, in terminological terms, scientific practice

of interpreting stress resistance as a mechanism, as a

model of risk-oriented management, a system of

relations or the state of a complex multi-level system.

At the same time, at the level of individual economic

entities (for example, financial and credit

organizations), stress testing in order to strengthen the

stability of organizations is used quite actively and

gives useful results. In our opinion, it is necessary to

develop a unified interpretation (since this is, to a

large extent, a conventional form) of the Russian-

language concept of resilience. Existing international

practices of interpretation (see, for example, the

Sendai UN Program on Disaster Risk Reduction),

offer a translation of the term resilience into Russian

as “resilience potential”. But this, at least, requires

discussion and clarification. In UN documents, you

can find the concept of "resilience" as a term that has

the meaning of flexible (regulated) resilience of a

complex socio-economic system to external serious

influences and threats that bring great changes in the

economy and society (UN Resolution, 2020). In this

respect, this understanding approaches the

interpretation of the stability and safety of the system.

In the Russian practice of regulating the development

of complex socio-economic systems, the main

mechanism for ensuring economic security,

according to the «Strategy for ensuring the economic

security of Russia until 2030» (clause 24) is a risk

management system (RMS). With this approach,

counteracting stresses and shocks is part of the RMS,

but it considers that part of risk management that

includes unlikely risks, but that can cause serious

large-scale consequences of various nature

(Romanova, 2017). This approach is currently being

implemented everywhere in stress testing in financial

and credit institutions for quite a long time.

At the same time, not only financial and economic

factors, but also other factors that are becoming more

and more significant, have an increasingly noticeable

effect on the state and behavior of the economy.

Among them, we should note the increasingly acute

problems of social development, infrastructural

changes, regional imbalance, resource provision,

information security of the system, powerful natural

disasters and others, which are also manifested in the

economic sphere. Each of them individually

contributes to the violation of systemic stability, but

their interconnected manifestation can now critically

change the situation and seriously affect the security

of the economy and society, along with financial or

economic issues.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

These problems have not yet been studied either in

scientific-methodological and applied terms, the need

for their comprehensive scientific understanding is

becoming more and more obvious. In a difficult

environment of instability in the global context,

Russia prioritizes its development in the formation of

an independent vector of counteraction to attempts to

dominate Western countries (USA, Europe), which

SES 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC-PRACTICAL CONFERENCE "ENSURING THE STABILITY AND SECURITY OF

SOCIO - ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: OVERCOMING THE THREATS OF THE CRISIS SPACE"

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limits the possibilities of its participation in the

discussion of the problems of assessing the stress

resistance of world processes, as well as Russia's

possible participation in managing these processes at

the national and regional levels. All of the above

determined the task of a more detailed study of the

issues of the methodology of anti-stress regulation of

the country's economy. It is possible to outline several

directions for conducting research in this area in the

context of ensuring the economic security of the

country, the formation of a methodology and the

development of mechanisms for strengthening the

stress resistance of the economy for its stable long-

term socially-oriented development. To accomplish

this task, it is necessary to investigate issues such as:

 the state and evolution of the existing

theoretical and methodological approaches to

the study of the problems of ensuring ES on the

basis of strengthening its stress resistance,

taking into account the impact of growing

shock threats (Bezdenezhnykh and other,

2020);

 assessment of the possible consequences of the

transformation of traditional and new shock

threats to the economic security of the

development of the Russian economy

(Avdiyskiy, Bezdenezhnykh, 2018);

 systematization of the conceptual apparatus of

the methodology for assessing stress resistance

of complex socio-economic systems and

characterize the main models of stress

resistance in modern discourses of

management;

 methods for conducting a comparative socio-

economic analysis of complicated systems

stress tolerance models using the example of

American, Western European and Russian

management approaches and identifying trends

in their evolution;

 substantiation of the need to identify

mechanisms for strengthening the stress

resistance of organizations as an important

direction in ensuring the economic security of

complex systems (Gibson, 2012);

 analysis of the most important features of the

structure of the formation of stress resistance of

the national economy and assessment of

possible prospects for its strengthening;

 determination of the foundations and principles

of the conceptual methodological complex for

the development of stress resistance of complex

systems and the allocation of priority areas for

ensuring the economic security of Russia on the

basis of strengthening its stress resistance

(Avdiyskiy, Bezdenezhnykh, 2018);

 development within the framework of the G20,

BRICS and other supranational associations of

an alternative model of SSEC stress resistance

that meets the interests of the world community

and modern development trends in opposition

to the pressure exerted by Western countries in

supranational regulation.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The problems of the model of anti-stress regulation of

complex multi-level socio-economic systems have

not yet been studied either in scientific-

methodological or applied terms. This determines the

need for their comprehensive scientific understanding

of these issues, which is becoming an increasingly

obvious task.

All of the above puts forward the priority task of

a more detailed study of the issues of methodology

for assessing and ensuring anti-stress regulation of the

country's economy. The article outlines several main

directions of research in this area in the context of

ensuring the country's economic security, forming a

methodology and developing mechanisms for

strengthening the stress resistance of the economy for

its stable long-term socially-oriented development.

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