Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Precipitation and Runoff in

Mississippi River Basin in Recent 40 Years

Lanshu Jing

1,2,3

, Hongjing Yu

1,2

, Baisha Weng

1,2,*

, Qinghua Luan

, and Shanjun Zhang

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and

Hydropower Research, Beijing, China

Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of steppe Eco-hydrological System, China Institute of Water

Resources and Hydropower Research, Baotou, China

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Keywords: Mississippi River, Precipitation, Runoff, Spatial-temporal evolution

Abstract: As the fourth largest river in the world, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of precipitation and

runoff of the Mississippi River can provide basic support for the global water cycle. Different from the

analysis of single factor characteristics, this paper comprehensively analysed the spatial distribution

characteristics of annual precipitation, runoff into the sea, runoff of each typical station and runoff coefficient

in the Mississippi River Basin. Long-series precipitation and runoff data were analysed by statistical methods

from three aspects of trend, mutation and periodicity. The results indicated that the annual precipitation

increased from northwest to Southeast, with great spatial differences. The annual precipitation trend increased

from the eastern and western edge areas to the middle. The annual precipitation mutation time generally

delayed from high and low longitude areas to middle longitude areas. The annual precipitation periodicity

was characterized by a longer period in the eastern and western edge areas and a shorter period in the central

area. The runoff of the Missouri River, Kansas river and Illinois River showed a decreasing trend, which was

inconsistent with the trend of precipitation. Overall, the spatial distribution of runoff variation amplitude

showed the characteristics of increasing from the east and west to the middle. The amount of discharge into

the sea generally showed a decreasing trend. From 1970 to 2013, the sudden change fluctuation was large,

the main period was 5a and the secondary period was 10a. The runoff coefficient increased from the west to

the East. The Ohio basin was severely affected by human activities. This study can provide a reference for

the study of large-scale watershed water cycle and even global water cycle.

1 INTRODUCTION

According to the AR5 report of IPCC, the global

average land surface temperature increased from 0.

65 ℃ to 1. 06 ℃ between 1880 and 2012 (IPCC,

2013). It may change the temporal and spatial

distribution of hydrological cycle in the world

(Stonevičius et al., 2017; Teklesadik et al., 2018;

Zhuang et al., 2017). In this regard, the evolution of

precipitation and runoff due to the decline of

changing environment has become a hot issue in the

field of hydrology, water resources and climate

change (Onyutha et al., 2016; Arnell, 1992; Ren et

al., 2015). The Mississippi River is the largest river

across the north and south of the United States. It not

only has an important impact on the regional

economy of the United States, but also is of great

significance to the study of the global water cycle

under the changing environment.

To explore the evolution law and trend change of

hydrological cycle, we mainly focus on the change of

hydrological cycle elements and other related

research (Wang et al., 2016). At present, many

scholars at home and abroad have used a variety of

methods to discuss and study the evolution law and

attribution analysis of water cycle elements (Milly &

Dunne, 2001; Nair et al., 2014, Raj et al., 2012). The

most widely used method is statistical analysis, which

aims to reflect the evolution of hydrological cycle

elements in time and space. Generally, it is analysed

from three aspects: trend, mutation and periodicity.

At present, the trend analysis method is used to

Jing, L., Yu, H., Weng, B., Luan, Q. and Zhang, S.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Precipitation and Runoff in Mississippi River Basin in Recent 40 Years.

In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment (WRE 2021), pages 58-64

ISBN: 978-989-758-560-9; ISSN: 1755-1315

analyse the trend change characteristics of historical

data of hydrological cycle elements, such as

cumulative anomaly and climate tendency rate

method. Shi et al (2017) analysed and studied the

temporal and spatial variation characteristics of

temperature and precipitation in Henan Province in

recent 50 years by using the method of climate

tendency rate. mutation analysis method is used to

identify the catastrophe characteristics of historical

data of hydrological cycle elements, and Mann

Kendall order detection and sliding t-test methods are

often used. Fan et al used Mann Kendall order

detection method to analyse the climate change trend

in Shiyang River Basin, which provides a decision-

making basis for water resources allocation (Liu et

al., 2017). The periodic analysis method is used to

reveal the periodic characteristics of the historical

data of hydrological cycle elements. Maximum

entropy spectrum method and wavelet analysis

method are often used. Zhao et al (2009) carried out

periodic identification of annual runoff series of 12

stations in Northern Shaanxi based on the analysis

principles of power spectrum and maximum entropy

spectrum. (Shao et al (2006) revealed the complex

multi-time scale structure of precipitation change in

the Yellow River Basin by using wavelet analysis

method, and determined the main periods of each

series.

Under the background of climate change, there are

great differences in the temporal and spatial

distribution of precipitation and runoff in the

Mississippi River Basin. From the perspective of the

whole basin, taking 2016 as the benchmark,

compared with the precipitation and runoff in the past

100 years, the runoff of the Mississippi River Basin

decreased, but the precipitation showed an increasing

trend, and the precipitation and runoff in the East and

west of the basin were quite different (Simon et al.,

2016). For the upper reaches of the Mississippi River,

the upper Mississippi River and Missouri River are

the main agricultural production areas in the United

States (Lund et al., 2012). They were affected by

human activities, the changes of precipitation and

runoff were very related to the agricultural planting

area in this area (Schilling et al., 2015). From 1939 to

2008, the runoff in this area generally increased,

while the runoff in the western Missouri River

decreased (Anderson & Norton, 2007; Hubbart, 2010;

Anderson et al, 2008). Compared with the upper

reaches of the Mississippi River, the precipitation and

runoff in the middle and lower reaches were larger.

Among them, compared with the last century, the

annual maximum precipitation in most areas of the

Ohio River Basin in the middle reaches had increased

significantly, and the range of extreme precipitation

was wider (Munoz & Dee, 2017). In the lower reaches

of the Mississippi River, the river runoff of the

Arkansas River Basin increased, and the lower

reaches were vulnerable to flood (Elgaali & Garcia,

2006).

Most of the studies on precipitation and runoff

factors in the Mississippi River Basin are single

sequence analysis on its sub basin and time scale.

However, there are relatively few comprehensive

studies on the temporal and spatial evolution of

precipitation and runoff in the whole basin.

Therefore, this paper is based on the precipitation and

runoff data of the Mississippi River Basin, builded

spatial analysis platform, combined with the analysis

methods of trend, mutation and periodicity, analysed

precipitation evolution characteristics of 0.5 ° grid,

which can more intuitively reflect the precipitation

evolution law of the basin. On this basis, 13

hydrological stations are selected to analyse their

runoff evolution characteristics and the time

distribution characteristics of runoff coefficient.

Therefore, the spatial evolution of precipitation and

runoff in Mississippi River Basin is summarized,

which provides a reference for the study of

hydrological cycle and rational allocation of water

resources in large-scale watershed.

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1 Study Area

The Mississippi River Basin is located in the central

United States. The drainage area is 3.2 million km

accounting for 41% of the land area of the United

States. The drainage area is 112 ° - 80 ° W and 29 ° -

49 ° N with a total length of 6021km. The main

tributaries are Missouri River, Ohio River, Arkansas

River and Red River, and the whole basin is in the

shape of "branches", Figure 1. The basin starts from

the watershed of the Rocky Mountains in the west to

the Appalachian Mountains in the East, and the

central great plain is in the middle. Generally, the

terrain is characterized by "high on both sides and low

in the middle". The basin is divided into two climatic

zones, namely subtropical monsoon climate and

temperate continental climate. The southeast of the

basin is subtropical monsoon climate zone. The

annual precipitation is more than 800mm, and the

highest annual precipitation is about 1710mm. The

rest areas are temperate continental climate areas, and

their annual precipitation is less than 800mm,

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Precipitation and Runoff in Mississippi River Basin in Recent 40 Years

especially in the western region of the basin, the

lowest annual precipitation is only about 126mm.

Figure 1: General situation of Mississippi River Basin.

2.2 Data and Methods

2.2.1 Data Source and Formatting

The precipitation data of Mississippi River Basin is

from the website of Global Precipitation Climate

Project (GPCP). We got the global monthly 0.5 ° from

1901 to 2013 grid precipitation data, and extracted the

monthly grid precipitation data within the Mississippi

River basin to calculate its annual precipitation.

Considering the climate division of Mississippi River

Basin and the division of upstream, middle and

downstream, 13 hydrological stations were selected,

shown in Figure 1. Each station was distributed in the

upper, middle and lower reaches of the Mississippi

River and the tributaries of the Missouri River.

According to the basin range of hydrological stations,

the basin surface precipitation data on the monthly

scale of the selected stations were extracted, and their

annual precipitation was calculated. The runoff data

of the Mississippi River Basin were from the websites

of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the global

runoff data canter (GRDC), from which the monthly

runoff and annual runoff data of the above 13

hydrological stations from 1970 to 2013 were

obtained respectively.

2.2.2 Treatment Method and Support

Platform

This paper constructed a spatial analysis platform

based on ArcGIS and MATLAB software to analyse

the spatial distribution characteristics of multi-year

average precipitation, trend and mutation in the

Mississippi River Basin. Multi-year average

precipitation of 0.5 ° grid was calculated, and the

results were converted into ASCII text. The final

results were readied by ArcGIS software to make the

spatial distribution map of multi-year precipitation.

Based on this, combined with the precipitation

tendency rate and the M-K test calculation method,

the trend and mutation characteristics of its spatial

distribution were calculated respectively (Liang et al.,

2015; Zhang et al., 2016; Han et al., 2013). In order

to verify the rationality of precipitation spatial

analysis and analyse the evolution characteristics of

runoff, cubic spline method and cumulative anomaly

method were used to analyse and analysed its trend

(Sun et al., 2012). Mann Kendall method was used to

analyse its mutagenicity (Yan & Weng, 2016). The

maximum entropy spectrum method and wavelet

analysis method were selected to analyse its

periodicity (Modern et al., 1999).

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Analysis of Precipitation Evolution

Characteristics

3.1.1 General Situation and Spatial

Distribution Characteristics of

Precipitation

Figure 2(a) shows the spatial distribution of multi-

year average precipitation in the Mississippi River

Basin. It can be seen from the spatial pattern

distribution that the multi-year average precipitation

in the Mississippi River Basin increases from

northwest to southeast. The high value area of multi-

year average precipitation is mainly concentrated in

the southeast of the basin, which is more than 800mm,

especially in the lower reaches of Mississippi River

and Tennessee River Basin. The low value area of

multi-year average precipitation is mainly

concentrated in the northwest of the basin, all below

200mm, especially in the upper reaches of Missouri

River, the lowest multi-year average precipitation is

only 177mm. The difference between the maximum

and minimum annual average precipitation is

1526mm, which shows that the spatial distribution of

precipitation in the Mississippi River Basin is very

different, which may be caused by the great impact of

climate change and human activities (Xi et al., 2014;

Milly, 2005).

WRE 2021 - The International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

3.1.2 Trend and Spatial Change

Figure 2: a.

Spatial distribution of annual precipitation in

Mississippi River Basin. b.

Distribution of precipitation

spatial tendency rate in Mississippi River Basin. c.

Spatial

analysis of abrupt change in Mississippi River Basin.

Figure 2(b) shows the distribution of precipitation

tendency rate in the Mississippi River Basin, and its

spatial distribution is characterized by decreasing

from the east and west sides to the middle. The central

region is the rising area of annual precipitation,

especially in the middle and upper Illinois River

Basin, the tendency rate is the highest, and the rising

range is 2.5mm/10a. The tendency rate of the eastern

and western marginal areas is the area where the

annual precipitation decreases, especially in the

Kansas River and Platte River basins in the northwest,

the precipitation tendency rate is the lowest, and the

decline range is -0.8mm/10a. In addition, combined

with the cubic spline trend analysis method, this paper

analyses the variation trend of surface precipitation

controlled by 13 hydrological stations, and its spatial

distribution characteristics are basically consistent

with the above analysis. Figures 3(a), Among them,

the station with the largest increase is MS station.

From 1901 to 2013, which shows an overall increase

trend, with an increase range of 16.2mm/10a. The

station with the largest decrease range is MP station.

From 1901 to 2013, which shows a decreasing trend,

with a decreasing range of 0.7mm/10a.

3.1.3 Mutation and Spatial Variation

The spatial distribution of mutation time is shown in

Figure 2(c). The mutation time on the east and west

sides of the Mississippi River Basin is earlier than that

in the middle, that is, the mutation time is generally

delayed from high and low longitude areas to middle

longitude areas. The mutation time of the eastern and

western marginal regions mostly occurred between

1900 and 1920, the mutation time of the central

region mostly occurred between 1950 and 1980, and

the mutation time of the central and western regions

mostly occurred between 1950 and 2010. Combined

with the catastrophe analysis within the watershed of

each hydrological station, four stations are selected in

the upper, middle, lower reaches and Missouri River

area for verification, The mutation time of MS station

in the upstream area is 1973, MP station in the

Missouri River area is 1965, MT station in the middle

reaches of the Mississippi River is 1977, and VIC

station in the downstream area is 1972. The results

show that its spatial distribution characteristics are

consistent with the spatial analysis.

3.1.4 Periodicity and Spatial Variation

According to the distribution of selected stations in

the Mississippi River Basin, combined with the

maximum entropy spectrum method and wavelet

analysis method, the periodicity of 13 hydrological

stations is analysed. It can be seen that their

distribution characteristics are the characteristics of

longer period in the eastern and western edge areas

and shorter period in the central area. Figures 3(b)

show the precipitation wavelet analysis results of the

upper Mississippi River region. The MS station in the

upper reaches has the strongest oscillation scale of 3-

5a from 1970 to 1990. Combined with the analysis

results of the maximum entropy spectrum method, the

peak spectral density is 3a, and its main period is 3a.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Precipitation and Runoff in Mississippi River Basin in Recent 40 Years

Figure 3: a. Cubic spline analysis of precipitation at MS

precipitation station. b.

Wavelet analysis of precipitation in

the upper Mississippi River. c, d.

Interannual variation and

M-K analysis of annual runoff at sea inlet station. e.

Analysis of maximum entropy spectrum and wavelet

analysis of annual runoff at sea inlet station f.

Runoff

coefficient of each station.

3.2 Runoff Variation Characteristics

In addition to the runoff into the sea, the interannual

variation characteristics of the runoff of the other 12

hydrological stations from 1970 to 2013 are listed in

Table 1. It can be seen that the runoff of MSO (- 254

million m

/ a) and MK (- 47 million m

/ a) in the

west of MS shows a decreasing trend, which is

inconsistent with the precipitation trend (Qian et al.,

2007). It may be that the MSO and MK basins are

located in semi-arid areas, with large annual

evaporation, and increased water intake and

consumption for agriculture and industry. The runoff

of MP (- 25 million m

/ a) shows a decreasing trend,

which may be caused by the decrease of precipitation.

The runoff of MA (- 56 million m

/ a) and MR (- 192

million m

/ a) in the western area of the lower MS

also shows a decreasing trend, which is inconsistent

with the precipitation trend, which may be the

increase of water intake caused by the westward

migration of the American population (Griffin &

Friedman, 2017). Although the precipitation of the

MI in the eastern region shows an increasing trend,

the runoff shows a decreasing trend, which is caused

by land cover change (Knight et al., 2012; Tayyebi et

al., 2015).

Table 1: Interannual runoff variation characteristics of

hydrological stations in Mississippi River Basin.

River

Runoff

Trend

Variation

range

/million

·a-1

Mutation

time

Main

cycle/a

MS increase 10.35 1982 9

MM increase 0.50 1982 8

MD increase 1.88 1982 9

MC increase 29.00 1981 9

MI reduce -1.16 1983 7

MP increase 0.10 1977 11

MK increase 1.07 2000 6

MSO reduce -34.72 1984 15

MO reduce -100.12 1982 6

MT increase -11.24 1982 9

MA reduce -48.80 1981 9

MR reduce -13.86 1973 9

MS increase 10.35 1982 9

Figure 3(c) respectively shows the annual change

of runoff and the change process of cumulative

anomaly value of estuary hydrological station (VIC)

from 1970 to 2013. It can be seen that the average

annual seawater inflow is 595.7 billion m

, the

maximum seawater inflow is 877 billion m

and the

minimum seawater inflow is 381.7 billion m

Combined with the analysis results of cubic spline

method, the water entering the sea shows a change

process of "increase-decrease-increase-decrease-

increase-increase", but the water entering the sea

shows a decreasing trend (192 million m

/ a) from

1970 to 2013. Figure 3(d) shows the change trend

analysed by Mann-Kendell method at the estuary

hydrological station. It can be seen that the abrupt

changes occurred in 1972, 1976, 2004 and 2012 from

1970 to 2013. Figure 3(e) show the periodicity

characteristics of the VIC station analysed by wavelet

analysis method and maximum entropy spectrum

method. It can be seen that the periodicity is the most

significant from 1975 to 1980 from 1970 to 2013.

Therefore, the main cycle is 5a and the secondary

cycle is 10a.

3.3 Spatial Distribution Characteristics

of Runoff Coefficient

The runoff coefficient can comprehensively reflect

the influence of natural geographical factors on the

relationship between precipitation and runoff. Figure

3(f) shows the multi-year average runoff coefficient

of precipitation runoff series at each hydrological

station. It can be seen that the runoff coefficient of

WRE 2021 - The International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

Mississippi River Basin increases from the west to the

East. The high value area of Mississippi River runoff

coefficient is mainly concentrated in the east, and the

runoff coefficient of Ohio basin is the highest, which

is 0.52. The low value area of runoff coefficient is

mainly concentrated in the western region, and the

runoff coefficient of Platte River Basin is the lowest,

which is 0.05. In this paper, the cubic spline method

is used to analyse the interannual variation process of

runoff coefficient at each hydrological station.

Compared with the change trend of runoff, the runoff

coefficient is basically consistent with the change

trend of runoff. However, MO and MT stations show

the opposite trend, the interannual change of runoff

coefficient of MO station in Mississippi River Basin,

and its runoff coefficient generally shows a

decreasing trend, which may be greatly affected by

the change of land cover type. MT station is the

station in the middle reaches of the Mississippi River

(Zhang, 2010), while MO station is the station where

it flows into the river, and the runoff is large. The

change of runoff coefficient may be affected by the

upstream tributary stations.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The evolution rules of precipitation and runoff in the

Mississippi River Basin are summarized as follows:

The annual precipitation in the Mississippi River

Basin increases gradually from the northwest to the

southeast, and the trend of annual precipitation

increases from the east and west edges to the middle.

The mutation time of the eastern and western

marginal regions is earlier than that of the central

region, and the period of the eastern and western

marginal regions is longer than that of the central

region.

The runoff in the Mississippi River Basin

increases from both sides to the middle, which is not

consistent with the distribution of annual

precipitation. It can be seen that the runoff change in

the Mississippi River Basin is affected by human

activities and climate change. The total amount of

water entering the sea is decreasing. From 1970 to

2013, the runoff mutation point was 1972, 1976,

2004, 2012, the main cycle was 5 years, and the

secondary cycle was 10 years.

The runoff coefficient of the Mississippi River

basin increases from the west to the east. Most of the

basin is much more affected by climate change.

In the future research, we should carefully discuss

the influencing factors of the inter-annual variation

trend of precipitation and runoff in the Mississippi

River Basin, and distinguish the contribution rates of

human activities and climate change, so as to provide

scientific reference for the study of large-scale

hydrological cycle in the basin and even the global

hydrological cycle.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The researchers would like to extend their thanks to

IWHR Research & Development Support Program

(MK0145B022021). The study was also supported by

the General project of Hebei Natural Science

Foundation (NO. E2017402178).

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