Forecasting Extractions in a Closed Loop Supply Chain of Spare Parts: An Industrial Case Study

Emna Turki, Emna Turki, Oualid Jouini, Ziad Jemai, Laura Urie, Adnane Lazrak, Patrick Valot, Robert Heidsieck

2022

Abstract

In healthcare industry, companies like GEHC (General Electric Healthcare) buy back their products at the EOL (End of Life) phase and reuse the spare parts composing them. This process is referred to as spare parts harvesting. The harvested parts are included in the spare parts supply chain which presents specific characteristics like the availability of critical parts and the intermittent demand behavior. Add to that, the unpredictability of the parts’ supply capacity from bought back systems is a challenge for healthcare companies. The focus of this paper is to provide an accurate forecasting method of the harvested parts supply capacity for GEHC. To achieve this objective, a comparative study is carried out between statistical forecasting models. Then, a forecasting process employing the most accurate models is provided using TSB-Croston, the 12-month moving average, the best ARIMA model chosen with the Box-Jenkins methodology, and an introduced business knowledge based model. In order to improve the designed method accuracy, the statistical models’ forecast is adjusted using contextual information. An error measurement based on a modified MAPE error is introduced to evaluate the forecast. By means of the designed method, the monthly accuracy is improved by 9%.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Turki E., Jouini O., Jemai Z., Urie L., Lazrak A., Valot P. and Heidsieck R. (2022). Forecasting Extractions in a Closed Loop Supply Chain of Spare Parts: An Industrial Case Study. In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, ISBN 978-989-758-548-7, pages 236-243. DOI: 10.5220/0010906700003117

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icores22,
author={Emna Turki and Oualid Jouini and Ziad Jemai and Laura Urie and Adnane Lazrak and Patrick Valot and Robert Heidsieck},
title={Forecasting Extractions in a Closed Loop Supply Chain of Spare Parts: An Industrial Case Study},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,},
year={2022},
pages={236-243},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010906700003117},
isbn={978-989-758-548-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,
TI - Forecasting Extractions in a Closed Loop Supply Chain of Spare Parts: An Industrial Case Study
SN - 978-989-758-548-7
AU - Turki E.
AU - Jouini O.
AU - Jemai Z.
AU - Urie L.
AU - Lazrak A.
AU - Valot P.
AU - Heidsieck R.
PY - 2022
SP - 236
EP - 243
DO - 10.5220/0010906700003117