A Formally Correct and Algorithmically Efficient LULC Change Model-building Environment

François-Rémi Mazy, Pierre-Yves Longaretti, Pierre-Yves Longaretti

2022

Abstract

The use of spatially explicit land use and land cover (LULC) change models is widespread in environmental sciences and of interest in public decision-help. However, it appears that these models suffer from significant biases and shortcomings, the sources of which can be mathematical, conceptual or algorithmic. We formalize a modeling environment that distinguishes a calibration-estimation module and an allocation module. We propose an accurate calibration-estimation method based on kernel density estimation and detail an unbiased allocation algorithm. Moreover, a method of evaluation of LULC change models is presented and allows us to compare them on various fronts (accuracy, biases, computational efficiency). A case study based on a real land use map but with known (enforced) transition probabilities is used. It appears that the estimation error of the methods we propose is substantially improved over the best existing software. Moreover, these methods require the specification of very few parameters by the user, and are numerically efficient. This article presents an overview of our LULC change modeling framework; its various formal and algorithmic constituents will be detailed in forthcoming papers.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Mazy F. and Longaretti P. (2022). A Formally Correct and Algorithmically Efficient LULC Change Model-building Environment. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management - Volume 1: GISTAM, ISBN 978-989-758-571-5, pages 25-36. DOI: 10.5220/0011000000003185

in Bibtex Style

@conference{gistam22,
author={François-Rémi Mazy and Pierre-Yves Longaretti},
title={A Formally Correct and Algorithmically Efficient LULC Change Model-building Environment},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management - Volume 1: GISTAM,},
year={2022},
pages={25-36},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0011000000003185},
isbn={978-989-758-571-5},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management - Volume 1: GISTAM,
TI - A Formally Correct and Algorithmically Efficient LULC Change Model-building Environment
SN - 978-989-758-571-5
AU - Mazy F.
AU - Longaretti P.
PY - 2022
SP - 25
EP - 36
DO - 10.5220/0011000000003185