remittances and the United States GDP, as well as a
long-term negative relationship between remittances
and Mexico's GDP and between remittances and the
real exchange rate.
Another study from our country is the one
presented by Salas and Pérez (2006), it analyzes the
influence of macroeconomic variables on the sending
of remittances from the United States to Mexico and
the effect that these have on the distribution of income
in Mexico. To do this, they use a short-term
econometric model that relates remittances to
Mexican monetary policy variables (inflation,
interbank interest rate, and exchange rate) as well as
economic variables (foreign direct investment,
Mexican GDP, and United States GDP). They find
that Mexico's GDP and inflation inversely affect
remittances sent to the country, while the United
States' GDP affects them directly.
Another study, Islas and Moreno (2011), analyzes
the macroeconomic variables that determine the flow
of family remittances from the United States to
Mexico. To do this, it carries out an econometric
exercise using Vectors Autoregressive with Error
Correction (VAR) to identify, from a synthetic
perspective, the long-term determinants of family
remittances that arrive in Mexico. Their results show
that remittances are the consequence of an investment
decision rather than altruism on the part of migrants
since the impact of interest rates is clearer than the
impact of Gross Domestic Product.
For the case of other countries, Suamy (1981)
gathers available data on the remittances of workers
from Turkey, Yugoslavia, and Greece and analyzes
the regional structure and the growth of these flows;
he relates the flow of remittances to the level and
fluctuations of economic activity and to inflation in
the recipient countries. The results of the analysis
show that these last variables, as well as the number
of migrants and their wages, significantly affect a
large part of the variation in remittance flows; while
the relative rates of return on saving both in the host
country and in the home country and the incentive
schemes in the country of origin, such as the foreign
currency deposit scheme and the exchange rate
premium, do not seem to have a significant impact on
total remittances.
There is also the work of Elbadawi and Rocha
(1992), which proposes an empirical model for the
determination of remittances, which includes
demographic, macroeconomic, and portfolio factors as
well as special incentive policies. They use data from
5 labour-exporting countries in North Africa and
Europe: Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia, Turkey, and the
former Yugoslavia. Their results show that remittances
are significantly affected by the economic policies of
their country of origin (labour exporting countries) and
that special incentive schemes to attract international
remittances cannot substitute a stable and credible
macroeconomic policy.
The study by El-Sakka and McNabb (1999)
considers the macroeconomic determinants of
remittances from migrants to their home countries. In
the case of Egypt, they find, in contrast to other
studies, that both the real exchange rate and the
differential in interest rates are important for
attracting remittances through official channels.
On one hand, Tuncan, Neyapti, and Metin-Ozca
(2005) point out that the flows of workers'
remittances in Turkey have increased since the 1960s,
and they continue to be a significant proportion of
imports. They presented empirical evidence that the
premium of the black market, interest rate
differential, inflation rate, economic growth, income
from both home and host countries, and periods of
military rule have significantly affected remittance
flows to Turkey. Among them, the negatively
significant effects of the black-market premium,
inflation, and the military regime dummy indicate the
importance of sound exchange rate policies and
economic and political stability for attracting
remittance flows; likewise, there are reasons for both
consumption and investment smoothing, although the
latter seems more prevalent after the 1980s.
On the other hand, the article by Rapoport and
Docquier (2005) reviews the recent theoretical and
empirical economic literature on migrant remittances
in a microeconomic section on the determinants of
remittances and a macroeconomic section on their
effects on growth. At the micro level, they present in
a completely harmonized framework the various
motivations to refer described in the literature. The
results of empirical studies show that a mixture of
individualistic and family motives explains the
probability and size of remittances. At the macro
level, they briefly review the standard (Keynesian)
literature and trade theory on the short-term impact of
remittances. They then use an endogenous growth
framework to describe the growth potential of
remittances and present the evidence for different
growth channels.
Also, Vargas-Silva and Huang (2005) examine
the determinants of workers' remittances. They use
variance decompositions, impulse response
functions, and Granger causality tests derived from an
error correction vector, to test whether remittances
are affected by macroeconomic conditions in the host
country (sending remittances) or the home country
(remittance recipient). The data used correspond to