The Impact of One Belt One Road on India’s Imperative Maritime

Policy: Counterbalancing Efforts in Restricting China’s Influence

Ni Putu Triska Paramitha and Irfa Puspitasari

International Relations Department, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Universitas Airlangga

Keywords: Counterbalancing, China, India, One Belt One Road

Abstract: India, which also seeks to improve its economic and military capabilities in an international constellation, is

threatened by China's aggressiveness. The Chinese policy related to One Belt One Road that connects Asia

and Europe through Indian Ocean, threatens the position of India. The current Chinese potential to be a rival

for the major power such as the United States, has pushed India to develop counterbalancing policy in the

Asian region by partnering with Japan. This is for maintain its influence in the Indo-Pacific. In this case, the

use of the level of analysis of international systems by Valerie Hudson was chosen to explain the conditions

that represent interactions of countries at the global level. In addition, with Long Cycles Theory it was found

that this Chinese appearance threatened the position of the United States, which is an alliance of India. The

authors argue that this counterbalancing policy shows India's fear of China's aggressiveness, in addition to

limit the dominance indirectly.

1 INTRODUCTION

Relations between India and China are often

contested. This is also supported by India’s closeness

with the United States in a cooperation called IOZOP

(Indian Ocean Zone Of Peace) in the 1980s in the

Indian Ocean. This partnership is a reward from India

because the United States has supplied limited

technology in its defense field, and the United States

is promoting India as a regional security provider. It

can be seen from Indian intervention in the conflict in

Sri Lanka in 1987 and the Maldives of 1988

(Brewster, 2015). Moreover, in the economic field,

India which occupies the sixth position as a country

with 6% GDP rate increase per year shows that India

has the capability in international competition (IMF,

2017). By initiating the formation of the IOR-ARC

(Indian Ocean Rim Association Regional

Cooperation) in 1997, India then sought to play an

active role in regional security (Kalegama, 2009).

However, the Indian effort has little to do with

China’s initiative in building Maritime Silk Road or

China’s One Belt One Road. The trade route that

China was trying to build to connect East Asia to

mainland Europe then considered as a threat by India

(Brar, 2014). So under the leadership of Narmenda

Moodi, India seeks to protect its position in South

Asia by issuing a policy to engage Japan in

counterbalancing China's efforts.

The Indian economy, despite have a significant

increase of 6% per year by 2017, not been able to

compete with China’s nominal economy of US$8,123

per year in 2016 and India only 1US$,709 (World

Bank, 2017). The Rising economy of China not only

shocked India but also the United States. This

ultimately led India to be wary of its policy towards

China’s One Belt One Road.

In this case the author seeks to use the

international system level of analysis approach to

explain how the influence of the current international

system can induce India to issue a joint

counterbalancing policy with Japan. The systematic

of writing that will be presented is, first about how the

dynamics and transitions that affect the current

international system. In this case the author uses the

methods of Valerie Hudson and Long Cycles Theory

to explain the foreign policy caused by the changing

international system. Second, briefly describe the

new challenger in the international system and its

impact. In this case China is considered a threat

through its One Belt One Road initiative. Third, the

analysis of India’s counterbalancing policy involving

Japan in an attempt to stem the massive influence of

Chinese trade dominance.

536

Paramitha, N. and Puspitasari, I.

The Impact of One Belt One Road on India’s Imperative Maritime Policy: Counterbalancing Efforts in Restricting China’s Inﬂuence.

DOI: 10.5220/0010279900002309

In Proceedings of Airlangga Conference on International Relations (ACIR 2018) - Politics, Economy, and Security in Changing Indo-Paciﬁc Region, pages 536-542

ISBN: 978-989-758-493-0

2 TRANSITION OF THE

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

AND THE DYNAMICS OF A

COUNTRY POLICY

International systems become important when

confronted with their influence on state action in

response to an issue. The development of a world that

is no longer bipolar and tends to be unipolar when the

United States triumphs, in fact raises a new question

that leads to a multipolar international system.

Related to this, the international system is an external

factor that capable of influencing the state in its

foreign policy formulation (Singer, 1961). In a policy

formulation, countries will be realistic about what

policies will be adopted based on international

environmental considerations. Policymakers should

be able to see opportunities, especially those that can

secure their national interests in the international

political constellation (Breuning, 2007). In addition,

Laura Neack (2008) in her article The New Foreign

Policy: Power Seeking in a Globalized Era states that

when in reviewing foreign policy, using international

system as tool of analysis focuses on state versus state

studies, geostrategy of countries in the region, and

also countries behavior in international organizations.

The international system has considerable influence

to the exemplary country at the end of the Cold War

with the collapse of the Soviet Union. This condition

ultimately led the countries that originally taking side

to the Soviet Union to do rearrangement towards their

foreign policy.

According to Valerie Hudson (2007), international

system is a level of analysis consisting of national

attributes system and its application utilize system

theory. There are at least six attributes in international

system variables that can affect interactions at the

global level. 1) Number of actors, this affects a policy

when the interaction created involves many or few

countries. The fewer countries involved will be easier

to analyze, and vice versa. 2) the distribution of

forces, usually to know the classification of the

capabilities of each country. 3) the sum of the major

powers involved, on an issue in the international

environment will be easily analyzed when the major

countries involved are powerful nations, thus

demonstrating the policy issued will be bargaining at

the international level. 4) the level of state

compliance, when a major state make a foreign

policy, this system will affect its compliance or make

other international actors comply to the system. 5) the

presence or absence of supranational organizations,

and 6) the number of issues that are debated. These

points can determine whether a country’s policies are

caused by the international environment. Breuning

(2007) explains at least three categories of countries

that also play a role in the international system,

namely great power, emerging power, and small

power. Great power are countries that have sufficient

capabilities to affect the international system and

affects other countries. Middle power are countries

that have not been able to directly influence the

international system, but have the potential to make

changes. Finally, small power are countries that has

limited ability to influence both regional and

international systems (Breuning, 2007).

Table 1: Modelski’s Long Cycles. Sumber: Modelski, 1981 dalam Hudson, 2007.

Year Phase Military

Buildups

World

Economy

Main Actors

1763-1792 Deconcentration Risin

Expandin

France as Main Challen

1792-1815 Global War Depleting Scarcity The Defeat of France, UK

sta

1815-1848 World Powe

Risin

Expandin

UK as Global Powe

1848-1873 Dele

itimation Depletin

Scarcit

German-US Rise, UK Sta

nan

1874-1913 Deconcentration Rising Expanding Germany as Main Challenger,

UK Decline

1913-1946 Global War Depleting Scarcity Defeat of Germany, Fall of UK,

US Replaced UK

1946-1973 World Powe

Risin

Expandin

US as Global Powe

1973-2001 Delegitimation Depleting Scarcity Decline of US? Rise of Multi-

Actors?

2001-2030 Deconcentration Risin

Expandin

China as Challen

er?

2030-2060 Global Wa

Depletin

Scarcit

China as Global Power?

The Impact of One Belt One Road on India’s Imperative Maritime Policy: Counterbalancing Efforts in Restricting China’s Inﬂuence

537

In this case, the author also uses the Long Cycles

Theory by Georg Modelski (1981) to find out a

transition that taking place in the international

system. In his argument, a system undergoes

dynamics and transitions every 120 years. When

associated with the current international system, the

United States that won the Cold War did not rule out

the possibility of being shifted by other countries that

have the potential and actual power in rival the

position of the United States. In the table below

described the cycle according to long cycles theory.

Associated with the table, Georg Modelski (1981)

has seen that China can be a major contender in the

current international system. Modelski (1981) also

describes there are at least four phases in the

international system, the Global War and the

emergence of the new Great Power, World Power,

Delegitimization of the World Power, and

Deconcentration of Power to Other Actors. In the case

of China’s One Belt One Road and India’s response,

it is found that this existence of China is quite

threatening especially for the country which initially

holds the status quo of the United States. This will

affect India and its territory will be affected by

China’s influence, but the United States, which is an

ally of India’s declining performance, has also

provoked fears from India when the United States

could not compete with China and its attempt to

become a leader in the Asian region will eventually

failed. The author also argue that India’s

counterbalancing policy involving Japan in relation to

the deconcentrated phase of great power states and in

this case Japan is one of the world’s major navies and

regional power (Thompson, 1990). Thus, efforts to

contain China’s influence especially in the Indo-

Pacific region can go smoothly with the help of Japan.

Although in some statements, India has said it

supports One Belt One Road policy by visiting China

but the authors believe that the decision to choosing

counterbalancing strategy is used to suppress China’s

influence because of the bad history of their

relationship in the past. India that seeks to build its

international capabilities often undergoes

contestation. In the Cold War era, the policy of Look

East which sought to be developed during the

leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru seeks to draw closer to

China and other Asian countries in equally contrary to

the West. This move began in 1939 when Nehru

visited China to approach each other (Jaffrelot, 2003).

In 1947, when India gained its independence from

Britain, through Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit at the United

Nations First Conference in San Francisco, India will

assure itself as a leader for Asia. However, at the

Asian-African Conference, it is highlighted by China.

His efforts in becoming a leader in the Asian region

are experiencing a contest which India and China both

want to attract the attention of countries in Asia. In

addition, the border dispute between India and China

in the Tibetan region in 1959 and the Sino-India war

of 1962 made their relationship worse. The feud both

lasted long enough especially when India finally tried

to get closer to the United States (Jaffrelot, 2003).

3 INDIA’S RESPONS RELATED

TO THE TRANSITION IN

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM:

CHINA’S DOMINATION IN

ONE BELT ONE ROAD

POLICY

China stole international attention when the United

States experienced an economic malaise that use by

China to exploit the situation to spread its influence

globally (Chow, 2014). The open economic and

policy reforms adopted by China in 1978. This

openness was then developed by becoming a country

with exporters of cheap goods to all countries

resulting from overproduction in the country. In

addition, China is increasingly taken into account in

addition to rising economically, but other

achievements are with its membership in the WTO in

2001. Furthermore, in 2002 to 2008 it experienced an

increase in terms of exports by 27.3%. Bijun Wang

and Xiang Li From World Factory to World Investor:

The New Way of China Integrating Into The World

(2017) explains that China’s influence globally is the

acceleration of its economy, especially exports and

investments. In terms of exports, China has

experienced a recession in its exports but ODI

(outward direct investment) can actually close the

decline of exports experienced by China.

Figure 1: Chinese exports grow at lower speed and ODI

increases.

Source: Wang and Li, 2017

ACIR 2018 - Airlangga Conference on International Relations

538

This ODI is a step taken by China by spreading its

influence beyond their boundaries which is one of its

initiatives is One Belt One Road. In 2012, China

became the third largest investor country after the

United States and Japan. Then, in 2015, this ODI flow

reaches the non-financial sector which reaches 118.0

billion US dollars while FDI in the same sector only

touches 111.3 billion US dollars (Wang and Li,

2017). China’s progress also challenged the United

States’ position in Asia and made the United States

issued a pivot policy to Asia to draw attention back in

the region. China according to many experts will

achieve a position as global power just like the United

States early in the 19th century. The Indian Ocean

then became an area of contestation and expansion of

Chinese influence which then confronted India’s

maritime imperatives policy. China is trying to

approach countries in the Indian Ocean coast such as

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Myanmar, as well

as build several docks and send naval vessels to fight

piracy at sea (Pan, 2014).

India who has ambitions in leading Asia, is in a

confusing situation. The development of One Belt

One Road threatens India’s position within the Indo-

Pacific. The Chinese initiative create open access

through Pakistan to the wharf of Gwandar through

Karakoram makes India. On the one hand, China does

not feel India a threat, but India considers China a

threat. Below, will show the success of India

compared to China based on IMF data (2017). It was

explained that the imbalance that exists, especially

the economic aggressiveness of China enough to

threaten the position of India, especially as a

dominant country in South Asia.

Table 2: China and India Economic Achievement

Country Subject

Description

Units Scale 2015 2016 2017

China GDP, Current

Prices

U.S.

Dollars

Billions 11,226.186 11,232.108 11,937.562

Total

Investments

Percent of

GDP

44.748 44.181 44.048

Volume of

exports of goods

and services

Percent

change

-2.216 1.077 4.700

India GDP, Current

Prices

U.S.

Dollars

Billions 2,089.867 2,263.792 2,439.008

Total

Investments

Percent of

GDP

32.904 30.376 29.938

Volume of

exports of goods

and services

Percent

change

-4.481 6.621 7.500

Source: IMF World Economy Outlook 2017

From the data above, although the export volume of

goods and services from China is outdone by India,

but the total GDP from current prices of Chinese

revenues with India is quite unbalanced. By 2017,

China is able to reach about 11.937 billion US dollars

compared with India which only reached 2.439

billion US dollars. The distance between the two

ranged from 9,000 billion US dollars. Here the author

see that India’s response to counterbalance policy

because it is caused by China’s economic power is not

impossible also will develop things other than trade,

but also in the military. Based on Global Fire Power

(2017) the ranking of the Chinese Navy is in 2nd

place with 714 fleets, while India is in position 5 with

a total of 295.

The Impact of One Belt One Road on India’s Imperative Maritime Policy: Counterbalancing Efforts in Restricting China’s Inﬂuence

539

India’s relations with China had suffered a tension

that India’s “make in India” policy was a response to

support China’s One Belt One Road policy. In this

case both India and China visit each other. However,

this support subsequently stagnated when China was

unable to provide clarity with respect to the details of

the OBOR roadmap. India then launched a naval

communications satellite that could cover the entire

Indian Ocean region (Gokhale, 2013 in Hornat,

2015). In addition, India is also building port facilities

in Chabahar, Iran, monitoring stations in Madagascar,

and closer to Southeast Asian countries as part of the

Look East policy. In addition, the policy of

counterbalancing with Japan (Hornat, 2015). The

author then sees this counterbalancing policy aimed

because of China’s closer relations with Pakistan,

which Pakistan is the enemy of India, attempting to

be equated with choosing Japan which in fact is

China’s rival in East Asia.

4 INDIA’S COUNTERBALANCE

POLICY: RESPONSE TO

CHINA’SONE BELT ONE

ROAD

The Indian tendency in the Indo-Pacific region,

especially in the One Belt One Road policy, shows

that the international order is shifting which China

emerges as one of the global challengers. This change

ultimately also led to policy evaluations from

countries directly concerned with China’s economic

rise. When discussing India’s One Belt One Road

policy, using Valerie Hudson’s international system

attributes (2007) there are several points that can be

covered and some not. First, regarding the number of

actors involved. India’s counterbalancing policy

involves several state actors. In this policy there is an

effort by India to get closer to Japan and the United

States which indirectly also regard China as a new

threat (Hornat, 2015). However, this Indian policy is

still less able to affect other countries considering the

economic level of India itself has not been able to

compete with China.

Second, related to the distribution of power. The

conditions of the world that currently undergo a

transition from unipolar to multipolar makes the

power no longer centralized, makes the countries

have their respective roles. China’s defeat as a global

challenger as described in the Long Cycles theory is

in fact consistent with current conditions. For

countries with interests opposed to China, China will

consider China a threat, in which case India considers

China’s presence in the Indo-Pacific to shift India’s

position as a security provider. Third, due to the

degree of compliance caused by the involvement of

major power, the Indian policy has not been able to

balance the policies of the Chinese that have attracted

the attention of international actors. India is only able

to control the cooperation of IORA, but basically

India also can’t fully guarantee the compliance of

countries to actively engage (Kalegama, 2009). Its

policy of focusing on ASEAN also has not been fully

successful which Indonesia has supported the policy

of China’s One belt One Road. In addition, the degree

of compliance from another countries are caused by

the investment of China to the world. Even based on

data HKTDC Research (2016) India is actually

countries that receive ODI from China.

Figure 2.

From the data above, obtained that India entered

as one of the recipients of ODI with a total of 4.603

million US dollars. The policies taken by India are

often fluctuating, on the one hand favoring or even

rejecting it. Fourth, the existence of supranational

organizations in this case does not appear at all.

Because the intention is still classified as a policy

without involving direct force so that the participation

of supranational organizations in this case is not

found. Fifth, the contentious issue is related to

maritime domination. This is demonstrated by one

belt one road which then indirectly has the potential

to weaken India’s maritime imperatives policy. This

policy then feared could derail India’s ambitions.

According to long cycles theory by Georg

Modelski (1981), the current world conditions are

multipolar. China’s progress as a country with a fast

growth rate has finally made the countries of the

world begin to consider China’s position. Especially

the condition of the world that is currently

deconcentrated ultimately exploited China to expand

its influence through One Belt One Road. India as one

of the countries that also experienced significant GDP

growth, in fact also felt the needed to do reevaluation

in their policy.

ACIR 2018 - Airlangga Conference on International Relations

540

Figure 3: India vs China GDP Growth.

From the data above, it is found that although both of

them are emerging economies, China’s GDP level is

still far above India. In this regard, despite China’s

declining GDP figures, the average decline is still

above the Indian GDP. This is then feared by India,

that with such stability, it is not impossible for China

to advance as a hegemonic country. The more

hegemonic China then India indirectly will

experience stagnation and made other countries will

try to get closer to China. So then the author found

that the logical policy taken was balancing by looking

for alliances as well as sending a diplomatic signal

(Mearsheimer, 2001). India in this case invites Japan

to cooperate in improving its infrastructure in the

Indo-Pacific region in order to maintain its position.

Japan has been one of the largest investors in India

since 2003-2004 through ODA (Official

Development Assistance) which continued until

2014, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited

India and supported the construction of infrastructure

in the region by providing assistance around 35 US

billion dollars in various sectors over a five-year

period (Sahoo and Bishoni, 2016). In this case the

author found that India tried to hold Japan in

counterbalancing business is due to the proximity that

has been going on for quite a long time and the

similarity of interest in efforts to limit the influence

of China. Particularly in history, there is an

unfavorable relationship between the two that has

lasted long enough between Japan and China. In

accordance with the long cycles theory, India and

Japan cooperation efforts did not rule out the

possibility of a global war. The deconcentrated

international system has finally triggered the

intentions of the state to dominate, one of which is to

form alliances such as India and Japan, although it has

not led to joint-military cooperation.

5 CONCLUSION

From the above explanation it can be concluded that

there are indications that the international system

ultimately influenced India’s foreign policy. This

refers to a shift from unipolar to a more multipolar

system. The emergence of new actors such as China

is ultimately considered a potential threat to the

position of the United States as a global force today.

However, not only the United States, but India also

experienced the impact of China’s aggressiveness,

especially in China’s One Belt One Road policy. The

initiative try to connect China with countries in the

Middle East and Europe through countries such as

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and others, including the

Indian Ocean. This location is quite crucial for India

because India has ambitions to become the leader of

Asia and trying to dominate the Indo-Pacific maritime

especially the Indian Ocean. The Indians are affected

by the argument of Alfred Thayer Mahan who says

that when the country is able to rule the Indian Ocean

it will be able to dominate the world. This is agreed

by India by trying to realize maritime imperatives

policy by inviting coastal countries to engage in

IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association).

However, the One Belt One Road policy

considered more interesting than the policies made by

India, and that makes India feel threatened by China.

There is evidenced by the development of ports in

Gwandar, Pakistan by China that ignites

disappointment from India, especially Pakistan as the

strategic competitor from India. In addition, evidence

that China’s significant economic acceleration will be

successful in its initiative. With the ODI that China

throws at the non-formal sector indirectly raises the

interdependence of the receiving countries, so that

there is a tendency towards China. India sees this as a

threat, threatened when its GDP levels are not able to

compete with China entirely so they decided to seek

friends by involving Japan. This common purpose

then creates a balancing policy election. In

accordance with the international system level of

analysis, it is found that the Indian policy is not as

influential in the international political constellation.

But the emergence of China as a global challenger

has enough impact on decision making in India that

decided to do counterbalancing with Japan. In

addition, the involvement of major power such as the

United States, is actually seen implicitly which India

and Japan as partners of the United States have also

helped to push its involvement in the Indo-Pacific

forum. But the role of supranational organizations is

not found in this case since what seen today are the

tendencies of states to contest that able to disturb the

The Impact of One Belt One Road on India’s Imperative Maritime Policy: Counterbalancing Efforts in Restricting China’s Inﬂuence

541

world stability. The issue that discussed more here in

this regard is the maritime affairs which are the focus

of India so that with substantial Chinese revenues and

investments eventually reduces its position in the

region. Although there has been no official statement

by India stating that One Belt One Road policy in the

future will harm the Indian economy, but this

anticipation step is enough to show India’s efforts in

limiting the dominance of China in the region,

especially the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

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