retrospective trajectories. The only PB1 signature
mutation, PB1-R327K, separating swine viruses from
human viruses was found from both the retrospective
and prospective trajectories. Three PB2 signatures
were also identified from both the retrospective and
prospective trajectories. These findings suggest that
the predicted evolutionary trajectories produced by
prospective simulations are rather consistent with the
retrospective evolutionary trajectories. Furthermore,
it is noteworthy that there was a marked rise in the
frequency of mutations on the signatures during
1990-2000 and 2001-2010, as shown in Tables 2 and
3, which was consistent with the time when the triple
reassortment events occurred.
4 CONCLUSIONS
We proposed a grid-based simulation model to
analyze and predict the evolutionary trends of IAVs.
Unlike previous approaches based on phylogenetic
trees or complex dynamics models, the proposed
simulation model only involves a series of adaptive
walks controlled by stochastic point mutations
constrained within an evolutionary grid. The
experiments of both interspecies transitions and
genomic signature mutations have demonstrated
promising results. It warrants further investigation
into the applicability of the simulation model for
predicting the evolutionary trends of IAVs.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research was partially supported by Ministry of
Science and Technology of Taiwan (MOST 108-
2221-E-009-086).
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