3) DAG Mapping: To enable the calculations,
the model has to be mapped into a Directed Acyclic
Graph (DAG). DAGs have the same characteristics
as a BBN, but are not limited to BBN typical goals.
Hence, our tool creates a decreased model, only con-
taining relations and elements concerning the assess-
ment attribute. Directed relations present the assess-
ment attribute dependencies. In addition, to make the
DAG mapping suitable for IoT models special uncer-
tainty nodes are introduced which face the possibility
of new unknown devices. These have to be taken into
consideration as they bring new impacts in the model.
4) Discretization of Nodes and Determination
of Probability Tables: Every node in the DAG repre-
sents a variable with value of the assessment attribute.
To enable the usage of probability tables, as required
in BBNs, the values have to be discrete, e.g., discrete
values to assess availability ”Up” and ”Down” time
can be used, i.e. ”Up = 0.3” and ”Down = 0.7”. After
discrete values are set a Probability Table (PT) and a
Joint Probability Table (JPT) per each node are cre-
ated by the tool. A PT represents the current state of
the assessment value, whereas a JPT contains the cal-
culated assessment value of the associated node and
all ancestors. A final joint probability (FJP) of all
nodes is calculated through multiplication of indepen-
dent probabilities. Since the values are independent
without an accident or attack happened, which cause
impacts, the tables contain not conditional values.
5) Simulation of Event: After we defined the cur-
rent state with our tool, we are able to simulate the
identified possible accident or attack in the model. As
the model elements are influenced from now on the
presented BBN formula to calculate the new depen-
dent values of nodes depending on its new ancestors
values are used. Therefore, CPTs are calculated for
every node of the DAG and JPTs respectively FJP
are updated. The final sub-step is the identification
of impacted nodes. Hence, our tool create differen-
tial matrices regarding the changes of assessment val-
ues and highlights the severeness of impacts. Nodes
highlighted in red are endangered and needs further
assessment respectively countermeasures.
To evaluate this part of our IoT tool we used the
introduced case study. Figure 1 shows FIA results of
a wellbeing IoT model. A flaw identification has rec-
ognized a vulnerable heart rate sensor in sensing and
acting layer caused by lack of encryption possibilities.
Hence, a DAG was created with all dependencies of
defibrillator which the sensor is part of. The most im-
portant feature of a defibrillator is guaranteed func-
tionality. Therefore, we chose availability as assess-
ment attribute. After the discretization of all nodes,
the event was simulated and all tables were calculated
or updated. The differential matrices of each element
show their current conditional availability highlighted
depending on the scale. Elements with a low avail-
ability were highlighted red, whereas unharmed ele-
ments with still a high availability stayed green. E.g.
heart rate sensor went down to 10.4%, whereas bat-
tery defi remained high as it was not impacted. As
multiple nodes are endangered and all layers were im-
pacted further assessment is necessary.
3.2 Quantitative Impact Analysis
The financial aspect, mostly of security attacks, have
to be analyzed as often countermeasure decisions de-
pend on possible loss of attacks. QIA aims in quan-
titative assessment of the impacted path discovered
in a previous conducted FIA. Therefore, QIA calcu-
lates costs of services or processes of the impacted
DAG. Through quantity of events, costs per event
and likelihood of occurrence a financial assessment
will be calculated. QIA helps to estimate appropri-
ate efforts to mitigate the impacts, e.g if the occur-
rence is low or the financial impacts are weak coun-
termeasures would cause disproportionate expenses.
Our approach is leaned on (Breu et al., 2008) and
(Innerhofer-Oberperfler and Breu, 2006). They cre-
ated a security enterprise model with a high-level
business security goal and calculate the looses if the
security goal fails. We adapted this approach not even
to make it suitable for IoT but also to enable the as-
sessment of financial impacts of safety events. To
calculate our QIA goals requirements and weights of
nodes or relations are transmitted from FIA results.
1) Impact Graph Generation: Elements which
are not impacted of a flaw don’t have to be checked for
financial effects. To minimize the elements that will
be reviewed, the tool automatically create an impact
graph containing only elements with a negatively dif-
ferential matrix in FIA results. Hence, a flawed path
through the IoT model is created which can be ana-
lyzed for possible costs of events.
2) Setting of Weights and Requirements: To en-
able calculation of costs safety or security require-
ments must be set to identify corresponding risk and
severity. In addition, every leaf node has to be as-
signed a rate of occurrence (RO) depending on its
risk. This can vary from past attacks, happened acci-
dents to average downtime. Leaf nodes are nodes with
direct known safety or security events which cause
further issues. To weigh the graph the contained edges
get assigned values through calculated probabilities of
FIA’s CPTs. This represents the probability relation
of two dependent nodes respectively risks.
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