Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects as a Way to Ensure

Sustainability of the Arctic Territories

Irina Makarova

, Ksenia Shubenkova

Krzysztof Zabinski

Kazan Federal University, Syuyumbike Avenue, 10A, Naberezhnye Chelny, 423822, Russia

University of Silesia in Katowice, Będzińska 39, Sosnowiec, 41-200 Poland

Keywords: Risk Management, Ecosystems, Northern Sea Route, Problem Tree, Delivery Time, BSC, KPI.

Abstract: Climate change opens up great opportunities for the development of the Russian Arctic. Significant reserves

of minerals, easy access to the sea for the transportation of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other resources

make this region promising and energetically important. This investment area is a priority for Russia and can

bring positive effects. At the same time, development of the northern territories is associated with inevitable

problems caused by the vulnerability of their ecosystems. Air pollution poses serious health, environmental

and economic problems for urban areas and contributes to global climate change. Among the atmospheric

pollutants, black carbon has an extremely negative impact on the environment, especially in the Arctic

territories. Although the Northern Sea Route is a direct route, some sections of it are too shallow for large

container ships. There are a number of other equally important operational restrictions, for example,

environmental issues: emissions from ships, oil spills on ice, etc. Article presents main directions for the

implementation of the Arctic region development concept in the framework of the large infrastructure projects

realization. Factors that negatively affect ecological state of the Arctic territories are highlighted, methods to

reduce black carbon emissions for the Murmansk region are described taking into account various types of

activities in the region. As a result, authors show that there is a significant potential for reducing emissions of

pollutants, including black carbon. In order to increase the sustainability of the region, authors classify

possible types of risks and suggest a conceptual model of the risk management system. As an example, the

reasons and consequences of improper planning of supply chains are considered. While drawing up

development strategies, risks that can disrupt the balance of ecosystems should be taken into account. This in

general will contribute to the sustainable development of the Arctic territories.

1 INTRODUCTION

The issues of sustainable territorial development

acquire special relevance in the 21st century, since the

depletion of natural resources forces, along with the

implementation of comprehensive strategies for their

careful use, to search for their new sources. The new

territories development is associated with a number

of problems, which are caused by their inevitable

urbanization, ecosystems disruption due to various

types of activities, which will especially negatively

affect the Arctic zone. Currently, a number of

complex projects are being implemented in the

Russian Arctic. Within their framework it is planned

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to develop industrial and touristic sectors of

economy, which is possible only by creating transport

corridors to ensure the raw materials’ export and

goods delivery, as well as solving the population

mobility problems. All of these activities are

accompanied by different risks that can lead to

serious consequences. In order to reduce possible

damage, it is necessary to understand the reasons

causing risky situations, as well as possible ways to

prevent their occurrence and to minimize the likely

consequences. The relevance of the Arctic marine

environment’s integrated management based on the

ecosystem approach is obvious. This is evidenced not

only by the activities of the Arctic Council and its

Makarova, I., Shubenkova, K. and Zabinski, K.

Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects as a Way to Ensure Sustainability of the Arctic Territories.

DOI: 10.5220/0010663200003223

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems (WFSDS 2021), pages 23-32

ISBN: 978-989-758-597-5

working groups, but also by broader international

activities to implement the goals of sustainable

development. Therefore, strategic planning and

forecasting is important when creating development

programs and infrastructure projects, taking into

account risks and consequences for the short and long

term (Makarova et al., 2013; Makarova et al., 2017a;

Pernebekov et al., 2014).

Strategic vision for the Arctic zone development

is determined both by its resource potential, which

includes about 25% of the world’s undiscovered

mineral reserves, and by new opportunities in

creating transport and logistics corridors (TLC) due

to global climate change. A special role in the

implementation of the Arctic development projects

plays the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which has a

great potential in the formation of international

transport corridors (ITC) between Europe and Asia.

However, despite the obvious advantages of water

transport over its other types (low cost; large carrying

capacity of sea vessels and their versatility), there are

significant limitations: low speed of goods delivery;

high production cost of ships and specially equipped

seaports; significant operation costs for ships and

infrastructure (seaports, terminals, etc.);

environmental problems associated with ships’ diesel

emissions, especially in coastal areas and port cities.

All this requires a detailed study of development

prospects, taking into account economic and

environmental factors and risks.

2 METHODS OF RISK

RESEARCH IN THE ARCTIC

REGION

2.1 Ecosystems’ State, Risks and

Methods to Maintain Their

Sustainability

Climate change could irreversibly modify the Arctic

ecosystems. To preserve vulnerable Arctic tundra

landscapes in the various anthropogenic activities

context, a system of specially protected natural areas

of the Russian Arctic has been created and is

developing (Aleinikova et al., 2020). Voronina

(2021) formulates principles of ensuring the

environmental safety of the Arctic region, which can

be used in strategic planning for the Arctic

development and for implementation of

environmental protection measures. In the climate

change context, the Arctic landscapes transformation

monitoring is relevant, because it contributes to the

environmental problems’ solution, as well as to

preservation of not only the natural, but also the

Russian historical and cultural heritage. Chekmareva

et al. (2019) explore the anthropogenic impact on the

species community’s composition in the high-latitude

Arctic and their ecological state. It is shown that

modeling makes it possible to establish the system

degradation degree, as well as the level of additional

permissible load, at which the system will not lose the

ability to self-recover. And for the active cruise

tourism development in the Barents Sea region, it is

needed to reconstruct the maritime transport and

navigation infrastructure along the entire planned

shipping corridor of the NSR, as well as to reopen the

seaports (Sevastyanov et al., 2021).

Issues of the Russian Arctic region’s ecological

and economic system’s managing are relevant due to

a number of aspects, including the increased costs of

production and life support, the economic situation’s

uncertainty and the need to minimize the technogenic

impact on the vulnerable Arctic environment. For this

reason, it is necessary to improve the methodology for

an objective assessment of the environment state; to

develop actions to increase efficiency of the regional

ecological and economic system’s management; to

improve the regulatory framework; and to ensure the

monitoring of financial costs for environmental

protection and the environmental policy results

(Tsukerman et al., 2020). Stepanko and Tkachenko

(2020) outline the main priority areas of activity for

the balanced ecological and economic development

of the Russian Far East Arctic territories, taking into

account traditional employment sectors.

2.2 Methods to Implement

Infrastructure Projects and Their

Impact on the Territories’

Sustainability

The Arctic territories development involves the

infrastructure projects implementation, which include

industrial enterprises construction and creation of a

transport and logistics framework for the raw

materials and goods delivery. In connection with the

activities of transport and industrial complex, the risk

of accidents and man-made disasters increases.

Katansky et al. (2020) have developed models to

reduce the risk of major accidents with petrochemical

pollution of environmental objects, to increase

industrial safety of water and coastal areas of the

Barents Sea Kola Bay in case of oil spillings.

Alekseeva et al. (2020) show that to monitor the state

of oil-producing areas, to detect timely and to assess

oil pollution risks in hard-to-reach and fragile tundra

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

and marine ecosystems, it is important to use space

images. The proposed methodology using remote and

ground data will make it possible to identify areas of

environmental oil pollution risk and develop plans for

preventive and remediation measures. Yakovlev et al.

(2019) have developed a technology to manage the

Arctic regions’ technogenic and environmental

safety, as well as an information and analytical

system to support planning of emergency protection

at the level of potentially hazardous production

facilities and complexes.

Varotsos and Krapivin (2018) use the

Geoecological Information Modeling System

(GIMS) as one of the Big Data tools to assess the

impact on the Arctic Basin’s ecological system and

the pollution of its waters. In simulation, heavy

metals, petroleum hydrocarbons, and radionuclides

are considered as primary pollutants, and to predict

the Arctic ecosystem’s state indicators of bio-

complexity and survivability are used. Shulga et al.

(2020) using mathematical model of multifunctional

energy complex have shown that transition to

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) should significantly

improve environmental conditions.

Port infrastructure’s development can

significantly worsen environmental conditions. As

the China experience has shown, with the ports’

development, emissions from cargo ships and

container ships have become one of the most

significant sources of air pollution in port cities and

surrounding areas. Such studies are described by

Zhao et al. (2020), Xu et al. (2018) and Wan et al.

(2019), who have found that emissions depend on the

type and size of ships and the highest percentages of

pollutant emissions are ships with a large gross

tonnage and with a high rated power of the main

engines, such as cruise ships, container ships and

tankers for liquefied gas transportation. For example,

López-Aparicio et al. (2017) emphasize the

importance of a detailed emission inventory as a basis

for the development of efficient measures to reduce

emissions from shipping in port areas. Authors have

used a bottom-up approach to develop a

comprehensive emission inventory for the Oslo Port.

The main sources of ocean-going ships’ emissions,

according to the research, are international ferries,

cruise ships and container ships. Sorte et al. (2019)

have used numerical simulations based on the web-

based study screening tool C-PORT to study ship

emissions in Porto harbors (Portugal) to estimate the

relative contribution of different source sectors to

emissions, including ports (terminals, ships and

roads), road traffic and industrial (oil refining)

sources that potentially affect the port vicinity,

including residential areas.

2.3 Methods to Study Negative Impact

of Transport on the Arctic Zone’s

Ecosystems

Negative impact of transport on the Arctic

ecosystems is associated, first of all, with

development of shipping along the NSR, as well as

with the logistics of raw materials and goods for the

industry and life development in this region. Since the

traffic on the NSR is still insignificant, prospects and

risks of the NSR development can be assessed quite

easily. However, the negative impact of road and rail

transport will depend on support zones development

strategy and many factors that are stochastic. For the

purposes of analysis and forecasting, it will be

necessary to apply multivariate analysis and

modeling, including data mining, machine learning,

neural networks, genetic algorithms, dynamic

programming, etc. (Żabiński and Zielosko, 2021).

Numerous researches are devoted to the shipping

impact along the NSR on the ecosystems’ state in the

Arctic, which is seen as a promising area for

economic activity and a potential connecting corridor

between Asia and Europe / America. Growth of

number of ships passing the NSR means an increased

accidents risk and related oil spills. Since the window

for successful cleaning will be short, according to

Kelly et al (2018), it is necessary to take into account

the duration of the recovery period from pollutants.

Dalaklis et al. (2018) show that, as activity is

expected to increase in this region, it is imperative to

assess the current level of support for ships that will

traverse the region; and capabilities related to search

and rescue operations and oil spill response.

Arctic exploration and transportation pose

significant risks due to the region unique features,

such as ice, harsh operating conditions, unpredictable

climatic changes and remoteness. Khan et al. (2018)

propose a model of an object-oriented Bayesian

network for dynamically predicting the probability of

a ship colliding with ice and assessing the risk,

including the likely consequences, taking into

account the state of the navigation and operating

system, weather and ice conditions, as well as human

errors. Lin and Chang (2018) propose a new risk

model using a Bayesian network applicable to the

NSR to study the possibility of marine accidents such

as collision, flooding and grounding. The proposed

model takes into account various operational and

environmental factors. When researching and

controlling the negative environmental impacts of

Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects as a Way to Ensure Sustainability of the Arctic Territories

shipping in the Arctic, travel time, fuel consumption

and related exhaust emissions from ships must be

taken into account (Schröder et al., 2017).

Chou et al. (2017) determine the navigation

efficiency along the NSR between different ports by

fuel consumption, arguing that fuel consumption and

carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by transit

from different ports along the European Sea Route,

and that navigation efficiency is determined by

distance. Analysis of NSR’s sea traffic flows differs

from other transport modes, since navigation follows

the recommended routes, depending on ice and

hydrometeorological conditions. The GIS for the

NSR, developed by Ol’khovik (2018), allows

calculating models of potential hazards depending on

the distance between ships, course crossings, ice

conditions and navigation area hydrographic studies.

Afonin et al. (2018) propose the GIS including data

on the speed and routes of various sizes vessels, as

well as data from remote sensing of ice conditions.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

RISK MANAGEMENT TO

IMPROVE SUSTAINABILITY:

CASE STUDY OF MURMANSK

REGION

3.1 Murmansk Region as a Support

Zone for the Arctic Development

Arctic development is planned through a system of so-

called “support zones”. There are nine such zones

defined in the State program “Socio-economic

development of the Russian Federation Arctic zone”

(2014). Their task is to connect all projects and

resources located on their territory for the development

of socio-economic activities, communication and

resource potential in the Arctic zone and to obtain the

maximum synergistic effect. The basis of the support

zones’ spatial structure is the transport-industrial

framework, which includes transport, industrial and

multifunctional objects (Dmitrieva and Bury, 2019).

The main consequence of such projects’

implementation will be urbanization of the territories,

that have been deserted before. This will inevitably

affect ecosystems’ state.

The Kola support zone provides for the

implementation more than 30 large-scale investment

projects. According to the sectoral principle, they are

combined into seven clusters: transport and logistics;

marine service; petrochemical; mining, chemical and

metallurgical; fishery; tourist and recreational;

scientific and educational. Development of the first

two of them is directly connected to the Arctic

projects, activities of the rest will contribute to the

Arctic’s evolution indirectly, however they will

directly affect its regional socio-economic progress.

3.2 Actions to Reduce Negative Impact

of Industrial Facilities on the

Region’s Environment

Fast industrial development is an important change

factor for the Arctic Ocean and coastline: the Arctic

was once perceived as a region with no prospects, but

now, due to rich natural resources and new

opportunities for shipping, interest is growing.

Expansion of activities such as coastal and offshore

fisheries, coastal and offshore hydrocarbon

exploration, its mining and shipping can drive

development in the region, but also threaten

ecosystems (Avila-Diaz et al., 2021).

Murmansk region’s industry is historically built

around mining industries and ports. The peninsula

territory is rich in ore with a high-solid of valuable

metals and minerals: sulfide copper-nickel fields, iron

ore, apatite, nepheline and baddeleyite concentrate.

About a quarter of all minerals known on Earth have

been discovered on the region’s territory. The region

provides 10% of the total Russian production of iron

ore concentrate, as well as 7% of refined copper. In

2019, mining took just over a quarter in the structure

of shipped industrial products (137.5 billion rubles);

60% were provided by manufacturing (319 billion

rubles), and 11% – by the electricity provision, gas

and other energy sources.

Due to the fact that nickel and copper production

impacts negatively on the environment, obsolete

production facilities are being closed. Thus, together,

shutdown of smelters in Nikel and Monchegorsk will

reduce sulfur dioxide emissions on the Kola

Peninsula in 2021 by 85 percent compared to 2015.

The mining and metallurgical industry of the

Arctic is also faced with the problem of local ore

fields depletion, many of which have been developed

since the 30s of the last century. An urgent scientific

and technical problem that is being solved by the Kola

Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences

scientists is the development of technologies that

allow additional extraction of useful components

from substandard ores and mining and processing

waste. In the last decade, pilot work has begun on

heap leaching of poor copper-nickel sulphide ores, in

which useful components are extracted from the ore

using special solutions. About 20 percent of copper is

produced in the world today using this technology.

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Black carbon (BC) poses a huge threat to the

Arctic, polluting snow, darkening its surface. This

enhances the absorption of solar radiation, heating the

snow and causing it to melt. Due to their low weight,

BC particles are spread by air currents over huge

areas, which makes the Arctic a particularly

vulnerable part of the planet (Chen et al., 2021). Thus,

the largest source of BC emissions in the Murmansk

region is the mining industry, which accounts for 71%

of total emissions. There are at least 250 diesel-

powered mining trucks operating in the industry,

which are a significant source of BC emissions.

Because mining truck engines have a relatively short

lifespan, there are many options to choose from to

reduce emissions, such as investing in replacing

engines with cleaner engines that run on LNG. In this

case, fuel efficiency can increase by 5-15% and BC

emissions can sharply decrease with a relatively small

increase in engine cost (Kholod et al., 2015).

Murmansk region has made the top ten Russian

regions in the rating of socio-economic sustainability

and has made the top twenty in the rating assessing

efficiency of regions’ activity. In addition to benefits

for residents of the priority development area “Arctic

capital” and the Arctic zone of Russian Federation, a

federal law “On protection and encouragement of

investments” has been launched. It provides tax rates

fixing during the realization period of such projects

as “Olkon”, which will develop the new

Pechegubskoye iron ore deposit, where production

will begin in 2022. The second project is the

expansion of “Oleniy Ruchey” mine, where 600 new

jobs will be created. At present, the third Investment

Protection and Promotion Agreement (IPPA) is being

prepared for the project for the development of

“Fedorova Tundra” platinoid deposit.

Another area that is actively developing is fishing

and fish processing. 15% of all Russian fish is caught

near Murmansk. According to Russian Federal

Fisheries Agency, in 2019, almost 659 thousand tons

of fish were caught in the region (mainly horse

mackerel, scomber, sardines and cod), 90% of which

was processed in Murmansk and shipped to retail

chains. Three seaports in the region have been loaded,

including the leader in the goods transportation in the

north-western part of Russia, JSC “Murmansk

Commercial Sea Port”.

Much attention is paid to energy and its eco-

efficiency. The Kola Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is a

unique energy enterprise: it is the first nuclear power

plant built in the harsh Arctic climatic conditions

located beyond the Arctic Circle (commissioned in

1973); and it is the northernmost in Europe. In 2006,

an unparalleled liquid radioactive waste processing

complex was created at the Kola NPP, which uses a

unique ion-selective sorption technology that allows

cleaning liquid radioactive waste and converting it

into a safe salt melt. This technology makes it

possible to reduce amount of radioactive waste to be

buried by 100 times. In 2019, the plant successfully

completed a large-scale modernization of the first

stage power units, which made it possible to

significantly increase their safety level and extend the

service life until 2033 and 2034.

3.3 Negative Impact of Transport and

Daily Living Activities on

Urbanized Areas and Ecosystems

Transport framework of Murmansk region is being

formed within the development of Kola support zone.

Road transport, including diesel vehicles with BC

emissions, is a significant contributor to air pollution

in the region. As in the whole Russia, the problem is

exacerbated by the growing diesel vehicles’ fleet

(Analytical agency “AUTOSTAT”, 2021). For

example, in Murmansk, the percentage of passenger

cars running on diesel fuel is 12% (Evans et al., 2015)

and almost the entire trucks’ fleet and buses also run

on diesel fuel. The use of gas diesel (Kapustin et al.,

2020) or natural gas as a vehicle fuel contributes to

the reduction of vehicles’ emissions, which will

significantly reduce BC emissions. Switching to

natural gas will increase the environmental class of

vehicles, increase engine life and reduce fuel costs by

40-60%. Russia is uniquely positioned to use natural

gas because it is the largest natural gas producer and

also has technologies to produce Compressed Natural

Gas (CNG) vehicles and buses. Considering that an

LNG transshipment terminal will be commissioned in

Murmansk in 2022, the possibility of switching from

diesel to gas is becoming a reality (Tikhonov, 2020).

Another emissions source, including BC, is

maritime transport. Murmansk, with its ice-free Kola

Bay, is the western gateway to the Arctic, and

Murmansk region has several ports. A great prospect

for the NSR development was showed by the

congestion that recently formed in the Suez Canal,

which indicated the high risks of traditional sea routes

and demonstrated their limited capabilities. Since the

NSR is now becoming an increasingly viable

alternative to the traditional southern sea routes, it is

obvious that emissions from shipping will continue

growing.

Since the main cargo flows today are tankers

carrying hydrocarbons, the future NSR economic

efficiency will be determined by the large-capacity

fleet presence, for passage of which hydrographic

Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects as a Way to Ensure Sustainability of the Arctic Territories

studies and new high-latitude deep-water routes are

required. At the same time, it will be necessary to

carry out work on the ports’ reconstruction. In

parallel, implementation of dredging works should be

carried out taking into account recommendations of

ecologists, so as not to harm the ecosystem. Russian

nuclear icebreaker fleet’s role is growing, and today

there are nuclear icebreakers of this class only in

Russia. Such vessels can operate autonomously

without entering the port for reloading for several

months, which determines their main advantage.

According to the projects for the icebreaker fleet’s

modernization by 2035, the Arctic fleet should

consist of 5 nuclear-powered icebreakers of the UAL

type with a capacity of 60 MW, three icebreakers

“Leader” with a capacity of 120 MW, four

icebreakers powered by gas fuel engine with a

capacity of 40 MW and an atomic icebreaker “50 Let

Pobedy” (Kashka et al., 2021).

In the Arctic, in addition to icebreakers, they use

ice-class vessels – tankers, etc. The main tasks of the

new nuclear-powered ships should be to ensure year-

round navigation along the NSR and expeditions to

the Arctic. To create conditions for safe navigation

and maintenance of year-round transit along the NSR

and in accordance with the Transport strategy of the

Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 (2008),

it is planned to build ships to support the fleet. These

are nuclear icebreakers for escorting transport ships;

diesel-electric icebreakers for servicing fields on the

Arctic shelf; multifunctional rescue vessels; new

generation tugs; technical rescue equipment from

offshore oil and gas facilities in ice conditions. The

NSR has a network of control and corrective stations

that ensure the operability of coastal navigation aids,

as well as GLONASS / GPS monitoring and

correction stations. This creates conditions for

increasing the reliability and accuracy of

observations, provides the calculation of the position

of the vessel, and contributes to the safety of

navigation, in general (Strategy for the development

of inland waterway transport of the Russian

Federation for the period up to 2030, 2016). The use

of fuel which is cleaner from the point of view of

emissions will make navigation along the NSR more

environmentally friendly, as well as will reduce the

negative impact on the environment in the port area.

Waste is a problem in urbanized areas. In Russia,

gas-fueled municipal vehicles on the KAMAZ

chassis are already in operation (Makarova et al.,

2020); their use in the Arctic zone is a good way to

reduce the burden on the environment. In addition,

since January 1, 2019, the Murmansk region switched

to a new waste management system: regional operator

for the management of municipal solid waste (MSW)

put into operation a waste sorting complex and a solid

waste landfill, as well as two waste transfer stations

in closed administrative-territorial entities.

An energy efficiency project is being

implemented in a number of pilot municipalities in

the Murmansk region. In Kirovsk city, a set of

measures is envisaged that should save up to 70% of

the consumed heat resource by 2025. The funds saved

within the program framework are fully directed to

the social sphere development. The environmental

aspect associated with the enterprises transition to

new energy sources is important for the region.

3.4 Risk Management as a Way to

Reduce Negative Impact on the

Environment: Case of Transport

and Logistics Processes

To minimize the vulnerability of the population and

economy sectors (agriculture, industry, housing and

communal services) to climate change, a national

climate risk management system is being created in

Russia. Russian Ministry of Natural Resources has

developed new requirements for environmental

impact assessment (EIA) materials, which will take

effect from September 1, 2021. In order to assess

correctly prospects for the implementation of long-

term strategies, it is necessary to assess risks

(Makarova et al., 2017b). For the Arctic, these are,

first of all, environmental risks. If to analyse the life

cycle of any technical system, you can see that among

the various risks types, environmental risk is present

at all stages (Figure 1).

Analyzing the main risks identified in numerous

studies, they can be grouped according to different

criteria: by the influenced object (ecosystem,

atmospheric air, water area of seas and rivers, etc.),

by activity type (production, transportation, tourism,

etc.), by the impact’s duration (seasonal, permanent).

In addition, it is necessary to understand what is the

likelihood of a risk situation, whether its occurrence

is inevitable and whether its consequences can be

reduced. Figure 2 shows the main risks’ types that

must be taken into account when developing a

strategy for the Arctic development.

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Figure 1: Classification of risks by life cycle stages of technical systems.

Figure 2: Groups of risks per activity types.

Since a transport framework is being created to

implement the development strategy for the Arctic

zone, the supply chains will include various transport

types (Almetova et al., 2019; Shepelev et al., 2019;

Galkin, 2019; Kush et al., 2018). In this case, the total

time of cargo delivery can be estimated as it is

presented in formula (1), where:

w, p = {1 – road transport, 2 – water transport, 3 –

rail transport, 4 – air transport}, w ≠ p;

is the travel time on the i-th section by the w-th

transport type;

is the time of customs documents registration at

the j-th point;

is the time of loading, unloading and storage at

the k-th point;

, B

, C

are the sets of transportation sections,

customs clearance points and points of loading and

unloading by w-th transport type, respectively.

r is the duration of unplanned repair impacts on

the vehicles’ fleet and infrastructure facilities;

is the number of downtimes for the w-th

transport type, taking into account unplanned repair

actions;

v is the downtime duration associated with the

working and resting periods of drivers;

z is the downtime duration or an increase in the

travel time associated with bans on the heavy vehicles

movement;

E, F are the number of vehicle’s downtime, taking

into account the specified reasons, respectively;

is the transshipment time at the o-th point from

the w-th to the p-th transport type;

w, p

is the set of transshipment points from w-th

to p-th transport type.

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Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects as a Way to Ensure Sustainability of the Arctic Territories

At the same time, the risks that characterize each

transport type should be additionally taken into

account. Evaluating the route efficiency can also

include price indicators and other factors.

Creation and development of infrastructure and

supply chains is inevitably associated with potential

risks: environmental, social and economic. Usually

they appear due to errors in the planning and

implementation of the development strategy. The

Tree-like method is widely used to assess the

likelihood of such problems’ occurring. Particular

attention should be paid to the problem of

underdevelopment and imperfection of infrastructure,

since there is a high risk of man-made disasters.

Therefore, we built a tree that helps to analyse various

situations, highlighted the root causes and

consequences (Figure 3).

The complex risk of event G is estimated as the

sum of basic events and can be calculated using the

formula:







kjp

kjk

xqxqxqGQ

111111

)()()()(

(2)

where Q is the upper event’s probability (namely the

G event); n is the number of child events for G event;

, r

are the number of child events for events x

, x

;

q (x

), q (x

kjp

) is the probability of events x

, x

kjp

of the first, second and third levels, respectively.

The basic events’ probability q (x

kjp

) can be estimated

by statistical analysis of historical data on operation.

To manage risks, a balanced scorecard (BSC) can

be used. For this purpose, key performance indicators

(KPI) are developed. Figure 4 shows a conceptual

model of a System to manage risks using BSC.

Figure 3: Problem tree to streamline the causes and consequences of the underdeveloped infrastructure of the NSR.

Figure 4: Conceptual model of a Risk Management System.

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

4 CONCLUSIONS

Climate change opens up wide opportunities for the

development of the Russian Arctic, including the NSR.

However, along with the positive effects due to the

development of the Arctic zone, there will be problems

caused by the vulnerability of its ecosystems. Authors of

the paper analyse economic and environmental aspects

of the Arctic region’s development, including the use of

the NSR for the transportation of resources extracted in

the Arctic, development of cruise tourism in the Arctic

zone, and also as an alternative route from Europe to

Asia. It is shown that it is necessary to implement

projects for the creation and development of the Arctic

support zones, as well as to modernize and expand the

capacities of the nuclear icebreaker fleet, since the pace

of implementation of the Arctic projects will directly

determine the volume of traffic along the NSR, which

will be the main route as an export channel for raw

materials from the Arctic. Efficient functioning of global

logistics systems is possible only when implementing

complex projects, taking into account various factors:

transport costs, optimal routes, environmental impact.

To overcome barriers and constraints that impede

sustainable development, it is necessary to build an

effective risk management system. For these purposes,

the article identifies factors that negatively affect

ecological state of the Arctic territories, classifies

possible types of risks, and develops a conceptual model

of the risk management system. Using the example of

the Kola support zone, it is shown that various types of

activities are associated with environmental risks and

methods for reducing negative consequences are given.

Possible actions to reduce black carbon emissions are

presented. Thus, the proposed methodology and the set

of presented solutions may be of significant interest in

terms of reducing the negative anthropogenic impact on

the Arctic territories, and will also contribute to their

sustainable development.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The reported study was funded by RFBR, project

number 19-29-06008 \ 20.

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