Sustainable Development of Tourism Services in the Russian

Federation on the Example of Work Efficiency Analysis of the FTP

«Development of Domestic and Inbound Tourism in the Russian

Federation (2011-2018)» and Advisability of the Prolongation for

2019-2025

Nadezhda Yu. Agaeva

and Irina P. Shchetilina

Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies, Voronezh, Russian Federation

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Russian Federation, Federal Target Program (FTP), Prolongation, Development,

Forecast, Tourism, Indicators, Economy.

Abstract: The development and increase of profitability in all spheres and sectors of the economy is the main strategic

task of any state. Tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. Considering the huge variety

of values of Russia, cultures, nationalities, it can be assumed that the potential of Russia is enormous and at

the moment is not just partially in demand. Based on this, the government of the Russian Federation is

developing and putting into effect a large number of programs supported by legislative acts, decrees of the

President of Russia and the development and popularization of Russian culture at all levels of government. In

this regard, the authors in the article investigated the effectiveness of the program directly related to the field

of tourism. The authors carried out a comprehensive study and critical analysis of the program data and

comparison of the predicted values. The article summarizes the data forecasted for the period of the program

for the development of tourism at the external and internal levels. The corresponding program is aimed at

identifying the effectiveness of the tourism industry,in accordance with its indicators. These indicators

characterize the industry and its development in terms of the growth of collective accommodation facilities,

the flow of tourists (Russian and foreign), an increase in the number of places in collective and individual

accommodation facilities, an increase in the number of jobs, and the positive dynamics shows the

development of the industry and makes it possible to identify the main indicators, which need to be further

emphasized. Previously, the forecasting of target values for 2018 was carried out with the aim of further

research, analysis and confirmation of the corresponding values in order to determine the effectiveness of the

program and its further prolongation.

1 INTRODUCTION

The country's economy is at a completely new stage

of development. The corresponding stage is

characterized and expressed in the intensive growth

of economic indicators, inflation, an increase in

innovation and investment activity, reorientation to

the domestic consumer (Erdem and Jiang, 2016). In

this regard, the tourism sector can become a powerful

tool for the development of Russia from a socio-

economic point of view.



https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8623-265

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2462-1480



The tourism sector has a very significant impact

on the socio-economic stability of the state,

moreover, tourism is very important for the

development of small business forms. Through the

tourism sector, a fairly large number of jobs are

created, and there is a significant increase in the self-

employed.

Looking at the industry in its dynamics, one can

observe intensive growth, outstripping the global

average. The development of tourism stimulates the

development of related industries. At this stage, the

tourism industry forms 3.4% of the country's GDP,

Agaeva, N. and Shchetilina, I.

Sustainable Development of Tourism Services in the Russian Federation on the Example of Work Efﬁciency Analysis of the FTP «Development of Domesic and Inbound Tourism in the

Russian Federation (2011-2018)» and Advisability of the Prolongation for 2019-2025.

DOI: 10.5220/0010665300003223

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems (WFSDS 2021), pages 151-158

ISBN: 978-989-758-597-5

151

and has an impact on 53 parallel industries.

Moreover, it should be noted that the creation of one

job in the tourism industry contributes to the creation

of up to 5 jobs in related industries.

2 THEORY

At the present stage of development, the government

of the Russian Federation pays great attention to the

introduction of programs of various levels and

directions, which contributes to the impetus for the

development of individual areas of the economy.

Programs are often backed up by numerous decrees

of the President of the Russian Federation,

multipurpose in nature and require rapid

implementation (Set, Agbola, Mahmood, 2017). So in

2011, for the first time, a program for the

development of domestic and inbound tourism was

developed and put into effect. The program had a

targeted character, was one of the tools for the

implementation of state policy in the field of tourism.

The main goal of the program was to significantly

increase the competitiveness of tourism products on

the domestic market. Special attention was paid to

improving the quality of the formed tourist products

in order to meet the needs of consumers (Russian and

foreign citizens). Moreover, an improvement in

quality entails an increase in demand for a tourist

product, which in turn has a positive effect on profits

from this area.

According to the Strategy for the Development of

Tourism in the Russian Federation for the period up

to 2020, tourism is considered as an essential

component of the country's innovative development

(Internet portal «Codex»).

It is necessary to pay attention to the key

directions, which contribute to the growth and

development of the tourism sector, that can be

catalysts for the growth of the well-being of citizens

of the Russian Federation, development,

popularization and drawing attention to the territories

of Russia that thus require special attention. Russian

Federation pays close attention to these territorial

resources of cultural, historical, ethnocultural and

other potential. Numerous decrees, programs of

federal, regional significance, grant resources aimed

at the development and preservation of the country's

cultural heritage and attracting additional attention of

the foreign flow of tourists to it have been developed

(Agaeva, et al., 2020).

The FTP«Development of domestic and inbound

tourism in Russian Federation (2011-2018)»,

established by decree 644 of the Russian Federation

government from August 2, 2011,aimed at the

development of tourism and the promotion of tourist

destinations, on both external and internal levels. The

results achieved were monitored annually. The

evaluation of the program was carried out using a

sample of certain indicators, which determine the

positive or negative dynamics of work. Target

indicators are the key factors that characterize the

effectiveness of this program. The main goal of the

program is to achieve the set values or to get as close

as possible to them.

Based on the initial data taken for analysis from

the Rostourism website, the following conclusion can

be drawn: in the period from 2019 to 2025, in

accordance with the established specified parameters

of the FTP and its positive work, the share of tourism

in the country's GDP should increase by 5%

(Rostourism website).

3 METHODOLOGY OF THE

WORK

The main purpose of this work was to predict the

target values specified in the study program, further

forecast the change in target indicators and assess the

effectiveness of the program based on the final data

for the study period.

Objectives of the work: analytical review,

generalized analysis, identification of the most

promising directions of tourism, forecasting changes

in target values at the end of the program in the study

period 2011-2018 using the method of polynomial

approximation, critical analysis of the results and

their comparison with the established target

indicators.

In order to optimize indicators and further

convenience of performing calculations, some

indicators were combined on a similar basis, namely:

 the number of citizens of the Russian

Federation and foreign citizens accommodated

in collective accommodation facilities (the

total number of persons accommodated in

collective accommodation facilities);

 the number of persons working in collective

accommodation facilities and working in travel

agencies (total number of persons working in

the tourism sector);

 the volume of paid tourist services rendered to

the population and the volume of paid services

of hotels and similar accommodation facilities

(the total volume of paid tourist services and

hotel services) (Agaeva, et al., 2018). In the

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152

course of data analysis, we can note a general

growth trend in tourism indicators in the

Russian Federation by the end of 2017.

According to the values obtained by the methods

of analysis of Microsoft Office Excel, in 2018 a

decrease in the values of indicators of the number of

collective accommodation facilities and persons

accommodated in them is expected. The analysis was

carried out in 3 different ways of calculation and by

plotting a trend line on a diagram. From the

calculation methods, built-in functions of Microsoft

Office Excel were used, such as «TREND",

«LINEST" and «PREDICTION».

The calculation by using the «TREND» and

«PREDICTION» functions was carried out by

substituting the available values of the population

indicators, the time interval and the value of the

forecast year (2018) in the form. The calculation

using the «LINEST» function was carried out by

obtaining the coefficients of the linear trend a and b,

then their further setting into the linear equation

y=a+b*x, where the desired value of the indicator is

y, and x is the year of the forecast (WTTC website).

As a result of all three calculation methods, the

same values were obtained. For the indicator of the

number of collective accommodation facilities, the

value was obtained - 20391 units of accommodation

facilities (Figure 1), for the indicator of the number of

persons accommodated in them – 54 189.82 thousand

people (Figure 2).

The trend line format on the diagram was chosen

polynomial, degree 5, so the indicator curve has

maximum and minimum points, on both diagrams

there are 4 such points, and the degree number is

taken by one. The value of the approximation

reliability, obtained by plotting the trend line on the

diagram, has a high reliability value, for the indicator

of the number of collective accommodation facilities

– 0.9816 and for the number of persons

accommodated in them – 0.9863.

Figure 1: Forecast of changes in the number of collective

accommodation facilities by the end of 2018.



Figure 2: Forecast of changes in the number of persons

placed in collective accommodation facilities by the end of

2018.

The sphere of tourism is a collective concept that

includes many components, including collective

accommodation facilities (Furmanov, Balaeva,

Predvoditeleva).

The projected changes in the number of places

available for placement in the DAC show a decrease

in the indicator to a value of 1 786.7 thousand

(Dedkova, Gudkov, 2019). The value of the accuracy

of the approximation is equal to 0.9908. The forecast

of the number of places in the DAC is presented in

Figure 3.

Figure 3: Forecast of changes in the number of places in

collective accommodation facilities by the end of 2018.

Based on the predicted values, the area of the

room stock of the DAC in 2018 will increase to 16

192.4 thousand square meters (Figure 4). With the

value obtained by the three above-mentioned

methods of calculating in Microsoft Office Excel, the

value of the accuracy of the approximation is 0.7913.

Figure 4: Forecast of changes in the area of the room stock

of collective accommodation facilities by the end of 2018.

The world economic situation leaves its mark on

the development of all spheres of the economy,

including the tourism sector (Alegre, Pou, Sard,

Sustainable Development of Tourism Services in the Russian Federation on the Example of Work Efﬁciency Analysis of the FTP

«Development of Domesic and Inbound Tourism in the Russian Federation (2011-2018)» and Advisability of the Prolongation for

2019-2025

153

2019). It is possible to observe – changes in the

consumption of tourism services, and the level of

employment in the tourism sector by people directly

correlates with the consumption and development of

tourism (Bronner, De Hoog, 2016). The projected

number of people employed in tourism will also

increase in 2018 to 481 138 people (Figure 5). In this

case, the value of the accuracy of the approximation

is 0.8594.

Figure 5: Forecast of changes in the number of people

working in the field of tourism by the end of 2018.

The volume of investments in fixed assets will

continue to grow, reaching the value of 59 747.14

million rubles (Figure 6). The value of the accuracy

of the approximation is 0.6202.

Figure 6: Forecast of changes in the volume of investments

in fixed assets aimed at the development of DAC by the end

of 2018.

A positive forecast is also for the volume of paid

tourist services and hotel services. According to the

forecast, the value of the indicator in 2018 will be

425 360.56 (Figure 7). In this case, the value of the

accuracy of the approximation is equal to 0.9975.

Figure 7: Forecast of changes in the volume of paid tourist

services and hotel services by the end of 2018.

4 SCOPE OF THE RESULTS

An analysis of the results obtained shows both an

increase in certain indicators and a decrese in others.

Indicators of the FTP efficiency, for which there is an

increase: the area of the numbered DAC, the number

of people employed in the tourism sector, the volume

of tourist services and hotel services, the volume of

investments in fixed assets. A decline in indicators is

predicted: the number of collective accommodation

facilities, the number of persons placed in the DAC

and the number of places available for placement.

Let us compare the predicted values obtained in

the course of the calculations with the target

indicators of the FTP efficiency. For convenience of

comparison, let us summarize the results obtained in

the table of planned and predicted values. The

summary table is presented below (table 1).

As can be seen from the comparison of the

forecasted values with the target indicators of the FTP

efficiency, only the indicator of the volume of

investments in fixed assets of the DAC exceeds the

planned value. The rest of the indicators are below the

planned values.

Table 1: Summary comparison of the forecasted values with

the planned indicators of the FTP.

Joint target indicators of

the FTP efficiency

Unit of

measure

ment

Plan

Forec

ast

2018

Number of beds in

collective accommodation

facilities

Thousan

d units

189

1787

The area of the room fund

of collective

accommodation facilities

Thousan

d sq.

meters

547

192

Total number of persons

accommodated in

collective accommodation

facilities

Million

people

68 54

Number of persons

working in the tourism

secto

Thousan

d people 794 481

Fixed capital investments

in accommodation

facilities (hotels,

temporary

accommodation)

Million

rubles

025

747

The volume of paid

tourism and hotel services

(including similar

accommodation facilities

)

Billion

rubles

917 425

According to the data obtained, the forecasted

values of the federal target program «Development of

domestic and inbound tourism in the Russian

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154

Federation (2011-2018)» will be carried out only in

terms of investment in fixed assets of the DAC.

Based on the result obtained for the predicted

values, an analysis was carried out using statistical

data posted on the official tourism websites at the end

of 2018. The state statistics data were updated, which

made it possible to draw a conclusion about the

effectiveness of the FTP «Development of domestic

and inbound tourism in the Russian Federation (2011-

2018)» for specific indicators, as well as to assess the

reliability of the forecast obtained by Microsoft

Office Excel analysis methods. Indicators used in

data comparison:

 combined target indicators of the FTP

efficiency;

 the number of beds in collective

accommodation facilities;

 the area of the room stock of collective

accommodation facilities;

 the total number of persons accommodated in

collective accommodation facilities;

 the number of persons working in the field of

tourism (the number of persons working in

collective accommodation facilities and

working in travel companies);

 investments in fixed assets of accommodation

facilities (hotels, places for temporary

residence);

 the volume of paid tourist and hotel services

(including similar accommodation facilities).

According to the values obtained by the methods

of analysis of Microsoft Office Excel, in 2018 a

decrease in the values of indicators of the number of

collective accommodation facilities and persons

accommodated in them is expected. The analysis was

carried out in 3 different ways of calculation and by

plotting a trend line on a diagram. From the

calculation methods, built-in functions of Microsoft

Office Excel were used, such as «TREND",

«LINEST" and «PREDICTION».

The calculation by using the «TREND» and

«PREDICTION» functions was carried out by

substituting the available values of the population

indicators, the time interval and the value of the

forecast year (2018) in the form. The calculation

using the «LINEST» function was carried out by

obtaining the coefficients of the linear trend a and b,

then their further setting into the linear equation

y=a+b*x, where the desired value of the indicator is

y, and x is the year of the forecast (Furmanov,

Balaeva, Predvoditeleva).

As a result of all three calculation methods, the

same values were obtained. For the indicator of the

number of collective accommodation facilities, the

value was obtained - 20391 units of accommodation

facilities (Figure 1), for the indicator of the number of

persons accommodated in them – 54 189.82 thousand

people (Figure 2).

The trend line format on the diagram was chosen

polynomial, degree 5, so the indicator curve has

maximum and minimum points, on both diagrams

there are 4 such points, and the degree number is

taken by one. The value of the approximation

reliability, obtained by plotting the trend line on the

diagram, has a high reliability value, for the indicator

of the number of collective accommodation facilities

– 0.9816 and for the number of persons

accommodated in them – 0.9863.

Based on the data analyzed, we can note a general

growth trend in tourism indicators in the Russian

Federation in 2018. According to the updated state

statistics of July 7, 2019, the number of collective

accommodation facilities in 2018 is 28072 units (The

number of collective facilities for placing EMISS).

The number of persons accommodated in them is 73

694 thousand people (The number of persons placed

in the collective accommodation facilities of the

EMISS). The number of collective accommodation

facilities (25291 units as of 2017) increased by 11%

or 2 781 units compared to the previous 2017. The

number of persons accommodated in them (61 623

thousand people as of 2017) increased by 19.6% or

12 071 thousand people. The actual statistical

indicators exceed not only the planned values, but

also the indicators for the last year, which indicates

an improvement in the situation of the tourism sector

in the Russian Federation.

The forecast of changes in the number of places

available for placement in the DAC shows a decrease

in the indicator to a value of 1 787 thousand places.

The value of the accuracy of the approximation is

equal to 0.9908. The forecast of the number of places

in the DAC is presented in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Forecast of changes in the number of places in

collective accommodation facilities by the end of 2018.

The number of places available for placement in

the DAC, as of 2018, is 2 415 thousand places (The

number of places in the collective accommodation

facilities of the EMISS). The actual value of 2018

Sustainable Development of Tourism Services in the Russian Federation on the Example of Work Efﬁciency Analysis of the FTP

«Development of Domesic and Inbound Tourism in the Russian Federation (2011-2018)» and Advisability of the Prolongation for

2019-2025

155

exceeds the last year's figure (2 168 thousand seats in

2017) by 11.4% or 247 thousand seats.

According to the forecast, the area of the DAC

rooms in 2018 will increase to 16 192 thousand

square meters. With the value obtained by the three

above-mentioned methods of calculating Microsoft

Office Excel, the value of the accuracy of the

approximation is 0.7913. The area of the room fund

in 2018 increased compared to the previous year to an

indicator of 21 633 thousand square meters (The area

of the room stock of collective accommodation

facilities of the EMISS). According to the statistics of

2018, the area of the room fund has increased by

11.2% or 2 181 thousand square meters in relation to

the previous indicator (19 452 thousand square

meters).

The projected number of people employed in

tourism will also increase in 2018 to 481 138. In this

case, the value of the accuracy of the approximation

is 0.8594. Due to the updating of the calculation

method for the sum of OKVED codes of 2

organizations included in the collective group

«Tourism», the average number of employees has

undergone a change (Federal State Statistics Service.

Annual statistical information on the collective group

«Tourism» based on OKVED 2). As of 2018, the

average number of employees is 1 167 549 people,

which is more than 2 times higher than the forecasted

value.

According to the forecast, the volume of

investments in fixed assets will continue to grow,

reaching 425.4 billion rubles. The value of the

accuracy of the approximation is 0.6202. In 2018, the

actual volume of investments in fixed assets reached

314.8 billion rubles. Compared to last year (300.3

billion rubles – 2017), the indicator increased by

12.5% or 14.5 billion rubles.

A positive forecast for the volume of paid tourist

services and hotel services. According to the forecast,

the value of the indicator in 2018 will be equal to

425 361 million rubles. In this case, the value of the

accuracy of the approximation is equal to 0.9975. The

actual volume of paid tourist services and hotel

services in 2018 is 427 798 million rubles. Compared

to the 2017 indicator (386 436 million rubles), the

volume of services increased by 10.7% or 41 362

million rubles.

5 CONCLUSIONS

Let us compare the predicted values obtained in the

course of the calculations with the target indicators of

the FTP efficiency (Federal target program

«Development of domestic and inbound tourism in

the Russian Federation (2011 - 2018)»). For ease of

comparison, we will summarize the results obtained

in a table with the values of the target indicators. The

summary table is presented below (table 2).Let us

compare the predicted values obtained in the course

of the calculations with the target indicators of the

FTP efficiency (Federal target program

«Development of domestic and inbound tourism in

the Russian Federation (2011 - 2018)»). For ease of

comparison, we will summarize the results obtained

in a table with the target indicators values. The

summary table is presented below (table 2).

Table 2: Summary comparison of the forecasted values with

the planned indicators of the FTP.

Joint target

indicators of

the FTP

efficienc

Unit of

measure

ment

Plan

Forecas

Actual

2018

Number of

beds in

collective

accommodation

facilities

Thousand

units

1 452 1 787 2 415

The area of the

room fund of

collective

accommodation

facilities

Thousand

sq. meters

16 192 16 193 21 633

Total number

of persons

accommodated

in collective

accommodation

facilities

Million

people

43.7 54.2 73.7

Number of

persons

working in the

tourism secto

Thousand

people

621.5 481.1 1 167.5

Fixed capital

investments in

accommodation

facilities (hotels,

temporary

accommodation

)

Million

rubles

238.2 425.4 314.8

The volume of

paid tourism

and hotel

services

(including

similar

accommodation

facilities

)

billion

rubles

917 425 428

An analysis of the results obtained shows an

increase in the actual indicators compared to the

previous 2017. As can be seen from the comparison

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156

of the actual values with the predicted indicators of

the FTP efficiency, all indicators exceed the predicted

values, except for the volume of investments in fixed

assets of the DAC. The actual indicator of the volume

of paid tourist services and hotel services is almost 2

times less than the planned value. According to the

obtained forecasted values, the FTP «Development of

domestic and inbound tourism in the Russian

Federation (2011-2018)» was carried out for all

indicators, except for the volume of paid tourist

services and hotel services.

Based on the analysis, the authors fully confirmed

the predicted results, moreover, the forecast and the

actual values exceeded even the most daring

expectations and overlap in terms of performance

with the report given in official sources.

Therefore, we can draw the following

conclusions:

 during the period of the program, previously

undeveloped territories were involved, which

contributed to the popularization of the

«territorial» potential of the Russian

Federation.

 in about 35 constituent entities of the Russian

Federation, the development of tourist and

recreational clusters was carried out, the

necessary infrastructure was created (or

reconstructed), objects of cultural display were

improved or «renovated».

 during the period of the program, a large

number of engineering networks were

modernized.

 an increase in the internal tourist flow in the

country has been achieved.

Accordingly, it can be considered that the

programs developed and implemented by the

government of the Russian Federation clearly outline

the range of issues aimed at sustainable development

of all sectors of the economy, including tourism. The

tourism industry has proven its effectiveness through

the implementation and effective operation of

programs at the federal, regional and local levels.

This fact is confirmed by the steady increase in the

number of collective accommodation facilities, the

tourist flow both at the internal and external levels of

jobs.

Based on the foregoing, we can safely talk about

the advisability of prolonging the FTP«Development

of domestic and inbound tourism in the Russian

Federation (2019 - 2025)», as a program that has

proven to be effective and confirmed its

effectiveness.

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2019-2025

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