Assessment of Factors Shaping Sustainable Development of Kursk

Region

S. А. Markina

, L. V. Afanasyeva

and I. N. Rodionova

Southwest State University, Kursk, Russia

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Gross Regional Product, per Capita Income, Inflation, Economic Security, Social

Security, Environmental Security, Integrated Sustainable Development Indicator of the Region.

Abstract: One of the state policy priorities in ensuring economic security is the sustainable development of regions. The

article deals with the problems of sustainable development of the region in modern challenges and threats.

The problems of theoretical and methodological substantiation of the main directions, mechanisms, and

factors of the region's transition to sustainable economic development were investigated. The main approaches

to determining the level of influence of factors on the stability of the regional economic development are

substantiated. The methodology for assessing the region's sustainable development based on the calculation

of private indicators of sustainable development, such as economic, social, and environmental security, is

proposed. The factors that have a dominant influence on the level of sustainable development of Kursk region

were identified. On their basis, the necessary conditions for the development of the economy of Kursk region

were determined.

1 INTRODUCTION

Globalization poses completely new challenges to

society in shaping the concept of international

security, including economic security of the global

space. Decree of the President of the Russian

Federation, dated May 13 2017, approved the strategy

No. 208 "On the strategy of economic security of the

Russian Federation for the period up to 2030". This

document reflects challenges and threats to the

economic security of the Russian Federation, as well

as the goals, main directions, and objectives of state

policy in the sphere of economic security. One of the

state policy priorities in ensuring economic security

is the sustainable development of regions.

Sustainable development characterizes the

strength and reliability of all elements, horizontal,

vertical, and other links within the system. One sign

of sustainability is the long-term stability of

development without sharp fluctuations in economic,

social, and environmental indicators and the gradual

but steady elimination of existing imbalances

(Tsiklauri et al, 2019). The main property that

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determines the system's safety is the balance of

internal and external conditions of its existence,

allowing the system to realize the interests of both its

present and future development.

Russia's security is made up of each territory's

capabilities, so the state of sustainability of socio-

economic development of a single subject of the

Russian Federation is important (Tsiklauri et al,

2017).

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This article will investigate theoretical and

methodological justification of the main directions,

mechanisms, and factors for the region's transition to

sustainable economic development.

K.V. Kopteva notes in her work that sustainable

development combines global, regional, and local

aspects of security into a single systemic whole based

on planetary imperatives. Its synergetic nature is also

manifested in the fact that it integrates at least three

spheres of human activity - economic, social, and

172

Markina, S., Afanasyeva, L. and Rodionova, I.

Assessment of Factors Shaping Sustainable Development of Kursk Region.

DOI: 10.5220/0010665600003223

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems (WFSDS 2021), pages 172-177

ISBN: 978-989-758-597-5

environmental - into a coherent system, creating a

systemic effect of sustainable development that did

not exist before because it focuses on at least three

compatible goals - ensuring economic efficiency,

social justice and environmental imperatives

(Kopteva, 2008).

The problems of sustainability and economic

security of the region should be studied in the same

context due to their proximity and ideological

orientation to ensure normal, effective development

of the region. Sustainable development and security

are essential characteristics of the economy as a

single system (Galbreath et al, 2020).

3 RESEARCH RESULTS

One of the most important indicators of the region's

economic development is the gross regional product,

which characterizes the process of production of

goods and services for final consumption. This

indicator should be considered in the dynamics over

several years in the region as a whole, per capita and

square kilometer.

The dynamics of the gross regional product

indicator in current prices, in the region as a whole,

per capita, and per square kilometer in the Kursk

region for 2015-2020 are presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Analysis of gross regional product indicator of Kursk region for 2015-2020, at the beginning of the year

Interpretation of the indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

In the re

ion as a whole, bln. rub. 298.3 336.9 362.4 387.3 428.4 496.7

Per ca

ita, thsd rub 266.8 301.2 323.1 346.1 385.6 449.3

Per square kilometer, mln rub 9.94 11.23 12.08 12.91 14.28 15.08

Index of physical volume of gross regional

product (in constant prices), in % to the

revious year

104.5 102.9 103.9 102.5 102.6 102.7

From 2015 to 2020, the absolute value of the gross

regional product in the region increased by 198.4

billion rubles (+66.5%), which is a positive trend.

As of 2020, there are four key sectors:

"Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting, Fishing and Fish

farming", "Manufacturing industries", "Mining",

"Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles

and motorcycles" in the structure of gross value added

in Kursk region.

The development of the socio-economic forecast

for Kursk region this year was in a state of uncertainty

due to the spread of coronavirus. At the end of 2020,

there was a decline in the number of economic

indicators. The economy is not expected to recover

until 2021. Moreover, this forecast is moderately

optimistic.

So, the results of 2020 in the Kursk region show a

decrease in GDP by about 3.4%. The Governor has

stated that agriculture in the region is the only

industry that has shown a profit in the current

coronavirus year.

Also, one of the key indicators characterizing the

level of economic security of the region is

"Investment in fixed capital". It is advisable to

analyze this indicator not only in terms of dynamics

over a certain time period, but also to determine its

share in the total volume of gross regional product in

the relevant year.

Table 2 presents the analysis of the indicator

"Investment in fixed capital" (in current prices) for

Kursk region for 2015-2020.

In total, from 2015 to 2020, the volume of

investment in fixed capital in the economy of Kursk

region increased twofold, which in absolute terms

amounts to +79.5 billion rubles. At the same time, at

the end of the analyzed period in the structure of

investments in fixed capital by types of economic

activity, the priority sectors are "Agriculture, forestry,

hunting, fishing and fish farming", "Manufacturing",

"Provision with electric energy, gas, and steam; air

conditioning".

Table 2: Vertical and horizontal analysis of investment in fixed capital (in current prices) in Kursk region for 2015-2020.

Interpretation of the indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Volume of investment in fixed capital, bln.

rub.

73.7 93.7 100.9 120.7 142.7 153.2

Growth rate of investment in fixed assets

com

ared to the

revious

ear %

100.07 127.00 107.73 119.66 118.23 107.36

Volume of investment in fixed capital to

gross regional product, %

21.88 25.84 26.05 28.18 28.73 29.57

Assessment of Factors Shaping Sustainable Development of Kursk Region

173

One of the necessary conditions for ensuring

sustainable development and economic security of

the region is the socio-economic well-being of

citizens. The analysis of the values and dynamics of

these indicators reflecting the socio-economic

situation of the population of Kursk region in 2015-

2020 is presented in Table 3.

Table 3: Analysis of indicators reflecting the socio-economic situation of the population of Kursk region in 2015-2020.

Name of indicato

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average per capita cash income of the population

er month, rub.

25330.2 25354.9 26211.8 27275.4 29246.6 29706.4

Average monthly nominal accrued salary of

employees of organizations, rub.

23921.4 25326.6 27274.1 29937.1 32709.4 35952.0

Number of population with monetary income

below the subsistence minimum from the total

population of the region, %

10.4 10.5 10.3 9.9 9.9 11.0

Officially registered unemployment rate, % 1.2 0.97 0.76 0.69 0.61 2.62

Despite positive growth dynamics of average cash

income per capita (+11.72% in 2015-2020), average

nominal monthly accrued wage (+50.29% in 2015-

2020), the number of people with cash income below

the minimum subsistence level remains at a rather

high level - 11% of the total population in the region

as of 2020. There has also been an increase in

officially registered unemployment (by 2.2 times in

2020 compared to 2015 and by 4.3 times compared to

2019).

Special attention should be paid to the crime rate

in the region. Ensuring a high level of economic

security and development of the region should be

achieved through economic, social as well as law

enforcement measures. Thus, according to the

materials of information and analytical notes on the

results of operational and service activities of the

Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in the Kursk

region for 2015-2020, we can determine the dynamics

of the total number of registered crimes in the region

(figure 1).

Figure 1: Dynamics of the value of the indicator "number

of crimes registered in the territory of Kursk region".

Over the analyzed time interval crime in Kursk

region decreased until 2017, then there is a steady

trend, so in 2020 the indicator is higher than the level

of 2019 by 5.3%, which is a negative trend and a

negative factor in economic security of the region as

a whole.

4 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

The basis for the diagnostics of the region's

sustainable development are the methods of

indicative analysis, according to which the diagnosis

is carried out by a set of indicators of economic, social

and environmental security (Kirilchuk et al, 2018).

On this basis, the methodology for assessing the

sustainable development of the region is presented in

Figure 2.

14224

12190

11864

12210

13203

13903

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

174

Figure 2: Methodology for assessing the sustainable development of the region.

On the basis of the proposed methodology, the

calculation and assessment of particular indicators of

sustainable development of Kursk region was carried

out, the results of the calculations are shown in Figure

Figure 3: Dynamics of particular indicators of sustainable

development of Kursk region.

Figure 3 clearly shows that in Kursk region, the

majority of private indicators of sustainable

Determination of the most si

nificant factors

influencin

the sustainable develo

ment of the re

ion

Formation of a s

stem of indicators of the level of sustainable develo

ment of the re

ion

Determinin

Thresholds for Selected Indicators

Analysis and assessment of criteria for the level of sustainable development of the region

The ratio of the actual values of indicators of sustainable development of the region with their threshold values:

Кi = Ф / П, Бi → max Кi = П / Ф, Бi → min

Кi - estimated indicator, Ф – actual value of the indicator,

П – threshold, Бi – safety factor

Ranking of the calculated values of safety factors on a 100-point rating scale

Assessment of the calculated values of the safety factors on the scale:

Кi > 1,5 – safe state

1 > Кi > 1,5 – pre-crisis state

0,5 > Кi > 1 – crisis state

5 < Кi

–

critical level

Calculation of particular indicators of the stability of the region:

- indicators of economic security

- indicators of social security

- indicators of environmental safety

Calculation of a comprehensive indicator of sustainable development of the region:

У



Экон

Б

Соц

Б

Экол



У – complex indicator of sustainable development of the region; Б

Экон

– private indicator of economic security;

Со

–

rivate indicator of social securit

Экол

–

rivate indicator of environmental safet

Assessment of Factors Shaping Sustainable Development of Kursk Region

175

development during the study period were below the

minimum acceptable level, and in 2020 the indicators

showed negative dynamics and did not reach the safe

level.

The calculated composite indicator of the region's

sustainable development (Fig. 4) allows us to

determine the dependence of Kursk region

development on destabilizing external and internal

influences.

Figure 4: Dynamics of the complex indicator of sustainable

development of Kursk region.

Based on the data of Figure 3, we can conclude

that the Kursk region is characterized by cyclical

changes in the presented indicator, which largely

depends on the economic situation in the Russian

Federation. There is low resilience to external factors

in terms of sustainability.

The use of factor analysis, made it possible to

establish the factors that have a dominant influence

on the level of sustainable development of Kursk

region out of the totality of the analyzed indicators.

Such factors include: GRP; investment in fixed

capital; average per capita income of the population;

population density; generation and use of toxic waste.

The listed main factors will allow us to determine

the ways to improve the effectiveness and

sustainability of individual economic entities, as an

integral part of the unified socio-economic system of

Kursk region in the future.

5 CONCLUSION

Summarizing the above, we can conclude that the

state of economic security of Kursk region is

characterized by the growth trend of gross regional

product, which is achieved mainly through the

effective functioning and development of agriculture,

metallurgy and industrial production, which products

are successfully exported to neighboring and distant

foreign countries.

Another positive factor is the growth of

investment in fixed assets in the economy of Kursk

region, which allows to increase the volume and

quality of products.

However, the pressing economic and social

problems in Kursk region include a high number of

people with incomes below the subsistence level -

almost every 11th inhabitant of Kursk region belongs

to this group.

The level of economic security in Kursk region is

below threshold only by one of 6 indicators - it is the

unemployment rate, which is 0.3% higher than the

permissible norm. In general, the state of economic

security of the region can be considered stable.

Thus, the Kursk region was among the regions

that ensured sustainable development of industry.

Despite the coronavirus pandemic and related

restrictions, the industrial production index for 2020

was 101.7%, above the national average.

The necessary conditions for the development of

the economy of Kursk region are: increasing the gross

regional product; providing the necessary level of the

social and economic well-being of the inhabitants;

ensuring a low level of crime; stability of the

economy of the region as a whole.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Performed as part of the Southwestern State

University state assignment, project code 0851-2020-

0034.

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