Measuring Population Ageing in Russian Regions: A Step-by-Step

Approach

Elena V. Vasilyeva

Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia

Keywords: Ageing Population, Age Structure, Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Region.

Abstract: The article assesses the process of population ageing in Russian regions. The analysis was carried out using

an algorithm of step-by-step assessment, which was developed based on the demographic approach. This

algorithm correlates the population under study with one of the ageing stages taking into account such criteria

as the proportion of the elderly population and reproduction trends. The assessment was made on statistical

data provided by Rosstat. According to the results, the population is ageing across all Russian regions,

although this process is extremely uneven. The population is younger in those Russian subjects, where either

the process of demographic transition is in the initial stages or the reproduction of the population is determined

by migration. In the majority of Russian subjects, the process of population ageing occurs ‘from below’,

determined by a decline in fertility rather than a decline in mortality. At the same time, in many regions,

mortality among women is shifting markedly to later ages, contributing to a higher feminization of the ageing

population. It is only in Moscow that an older age structure has been formed. Here, the life expectancy of the

elderly population continues to grow. Given a gender gap, the population ageing was assessed separately,

excluding the male mortality. The adjusted assessment showed that (1) 8 Russian regions are characterized

by the ageing population ‘from below’ (both men and women); and (2) the ageing process ‘from above’ occurs

in 66 Russian regions, where women of 55 years and older have a relatively high life expectancy associated

with social, cultural and economic factors forming a healthy lifestyle and self-preserving behaviour. The

revealed specifics of population ageing in Russian regions should be considered when developing state

policies aimed at improving the living standards of the elderly population. The priority tasks should be health

preservation of the population (particularly relevant for men), higher living standards and improved working

conditions.

1 INTRODUCTION

The ageing of the population is a global demographic

trend affecting all societal levels. Due to the

significant regional heterogeneity of Russia, the

ageing of the population here is uneven (Dobrokhleb

and Barsukov, 2017).An increase in the proportion of

the elderly population in some Russian regions may

indicate the presence of socio-economic problems,

rather than demographic trends. Therefore, the

knowledge of the current age structure is important

for revising state policies aimed at improving the

living standards of the elderly population. The

purpose of this research is to assess the level of

population ageing in Russian regions.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0446-1555

According to the definition of population ageing,

its most obvious measure should be the proportion of

the elderly in the total population (ageing coefficient).

However, from the standpoint of decision-making, it

is important to consider not only the process of

population ageing, but also its underlying reasons.

Since declining fertility and mortality have a different

impact on population ageing, the adaptation

mechanisms to the resulting negative changes should

be flexible (Kapelushnikov, 2019). Moreover,

population ageing can be accompanied by both an

increase in the demographic burden on the working-

age population and its decline, depending on the

growing or reducing proportion of children

(Vishnevsky and Scherbakova, 2019). Therefore, the

policy measures taken in response to population

234

Vasilyeva, E.

Measuring Population Ageing in Russian Regions: A Step-by-Step Approach.

DOI: 10.5220/0010666600003223

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems (WFSDS 2021), pages 234-239

ISBN: 978-989-758-597-5

ageing should be based on changes in the age

structure, i.e. considering the type of ageing. When

the population is ageing ‘from below’,the health of

the population becomes the major focus. Therefore,

primary measures aim toimprove theefficiency of the

healthcare system and the living and working

conditions of the population. When the population is

ageing ‘from above’, the state should target the

education system, creation of new employment

opportunities and raising the retirement age.All these

measures create the conditions for the potential of the

elderly population to be fully realized.

Nevertheless, the use of conventional

indicatorsbased on fixed threshold values (60, 65

years or retirement age) is justified, because they

form a basis for social programmes and normative

documents regulating the life of elderly people,

including pension legislation. These indicators are

supported by state statistical data and require no

additional calculations, thus allowing a regional and

international comparative analysis. Therefore, an

approach to measuring population ageing should

include both conventional indicators and those

describing the reasons for changes in the age

structure. Taking this into account, the author

developed an approach for assessingpopulation

ageing.

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

On the basis of theoretical and empirical studies, in

particular, the theory of demographic transition, a

scheme for assessing population ageing was

developed (Figure 1). This scheme is a step-by-step

assessment algorithm, which considers the reasons

underlying changes in the age structure based on

statistical data provided by Rosstat.

By analogy with the ageing scale proposed by the

United Nations, three main stages of the age structure

are distinguished: young, ageing and old populations.

Since the causes of ageing are of fundamental

importance, the types of ageing are also highlighted:

an ageing population ‘from below’, an ageing

population ‘from above’, as well as an ageing

population under the influence of external factors

(natural disasters, epidemics, military operations,

etc.). The population under study is correlated with

one of these stages taking into account the criteria

characterizing the proportion of the elderly

population and trends in population reproduction.

Thus, a certain stage of population ageing is revealed

step by step as follows:

 first step – identification of the population with

a young age structure;

 second step – identification of the population

whose age structure is formed under the

influence of external factors;

 third step – identification of the population

ageing ‘from below’;

 fourth step – identification of the population

ageing ‘from above’;

 fifth step – identification of the population with

an old age structure (Vasil’eva, 2021).

The basic criterion in this approach is the population

ageing rate, which uses the working age as the age

limit. According to the current legislation of the

Russian Federation, the working age for men and

women comprises 16–59 and 16–54 years old,

respectively. Such a limit of the old age facilitates the

collection and processing of data, as well as their

economic interpretation. Taking into account the

level of dependency ratio (Avraamova et al., 2017)

and the optimal proportions between workers and

retirees (The ratio of workers ..., 2018), the following

scale in terms of the proportion of the population over

working age in the total population is proposed:

 young population – 20% or less;

 ageing population – 20 to 25%;

 old population – 25% and more.

Since young population is determined only on the

basis of the ageing coefficient, other stages of

population ageing require additional criteria to

characterize trends in the natural reproduction of the

population. These criteria include fertility and

mortality. The fertility rate of the population and its

reproductive attitudes are taken into account through

the total fertility rate. The threshold value of this

indicator is determined by the level of simple

reproduction, i.e. 2.1 children per one woman. Since

the mortality rate determines population ageing only

in older age groups, the stages of ageing are

determined based on the value of life expectancy

considering the gender context. The threshold value

of this indicator is determined taking into account

international trends (Life expectancy ..., 2019) and

actuarial calculations that implement the insurance

principle of equivalence of pension rights and

obligations (length of service and the period of life)

(Solov'ev, 2012): for men – 20 years, for women – 25

years old.

Since the rate of ageing is influenced by the

direction and intensity of population migration, the

6th step determines the presence of such an effect on

each of the identified stages. When the inflow or

outflow of migrants exceed 0.5% of the population,

the ageing process either intensifies or slows down.

Measuring Population Ageing in Russian Regions: A Step-by-Step Approach

235

The described step-by-step algorithm enables one

to assess the level of population ageing, at the same

time as considering its underlying reasons. This

facilitates the development of strategic decisions

aimed at improving the living standards of older

generations.

Figure 1: Population Ageing Assessment Scheme.

Note: AС – ageing coefficient (proportion of the population over working age in the total population), %; TFR – total

fertility rate, the number of children per woman; LEM – life expectancy of men having reached the age of 60 years, years;

LEW – life expectancy of women having reached the age of 55 years, years; CMG – coefficient of migration growth,

people per 10 thousand people.

Source: Authoring.

Demographic

indicators

Young

population

AC>20

Strengthening/slowingdownofthe

ageingprocessduetothepopulation

migration

Ageingpopulation

frombelow

Noimpactofpopulationmigrationonthe

agestructureofthepopulation

Ageingpopulation

from

above

Old

population

AC>25

LEM>20and

LEW>25

TFR<2.1

YesNo

YesNo

YesNo

YesNo

YesNo

Ageingpopulationdueto

externalfactors

CMG>50and

<‐50

WFSDS 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

236

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The ageing of the population in Russian regions was

assessed taking into account its level and the

underlying reasons. Only 10 subjects of the Russian

Federation, including the Far North, 3 republics of the

North Caucasus and 2 subjects of Siberia, are

characterized by a young age structure.

In these RF subjects, the ageing coefficient is the

lowest in Russia. In 2018, this coefficient ranged

from 10.4% (Chechen Republic) to 18.5% (Republic

of Altai and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug), which

can be explained by the regional specifics. On the one

hand, the Far North regions (the Republic of Sakha,

Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty-Mansi and

Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) are industrialized

areas with a relatively high level of wages, which

determines the inflow of young labour migrants

(Mkrtchyan and Florinskaya, 2018). On the other

hand, the harsh natural and climatic conditions here

makeretirees to move to more favourable regions,

both independently and under programmes funded by

the state and enterprises (Karachurina and Ivanova,

2017). This internal migration contributes to the

rejuvenation of these subjects.

The subjects of the North Caucasus (the Republics

of Ingushetia, Dagestan and the Chechen Republic)

and Siberia (the Republics of Altai and Tyva) are

characterized by a high fertility rate typical of rural

populations in agrarian regions with more traditional

families. Moreover, if the total fertility rate in the

Republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan differs slightly

from the national average and is below the level of

simple reproduction, the Republics of Altai,

Chechnya and Tyvashow its highest level in Russia

(in 2019, 2.3, 2.6 and 3.0 children per one woman,

respectively). This indicates the incompleteness of

demographic transition in these subjects. In addition,

the Republics of Altai and Tyva are characterised by

a high mortality rate, including infant mortality,

which reflects an unsatisfactory medical-

demographic and socio-economic situation.

The population in the majority (74 out of 85

subjects) of Russian subjects is classified as the

population ageing ‘from below’, i.e., the ageing

process occurs due to a decrease in the fertility rate,

while maintaining a high mortality rate in older age

groups. In Russia, there is a significant gender gap in

the life expectancy of the population (Belov and

Rogovina, 2014; Smirnova, 2014), which exceeded

11 years in the Bryansk region in 2018. Given this

gender gap, the population ageing was assessed

separately, excluding the male mortality.

First, the adjusted assessment showed that 8 RF

subjects are characterized by the ageing population

‘from below’ (both men and women): Far East

(Zabaykalsky, Kamchatka and Primorsky Krai,

Amur, Magadan and Sakhalin oblasts and the Jewish

Autonomous Oblast) and Murmansk Oblast.

According to the analysis of the spatial patterns of

mortality in Russia (Andreev, 1979), such an

unfavourable demographic situation in these regions

have persisted since the 1970s. However, although

the inequality between the regions is decreasing due

to a reduced contribution of external factors in

younger and middle age groups and diseases of the

circulatory system in middle age groups, the regional

gap in mortality in older agesis growing (Danilova,

2017). This is largely because some Russian regions

started a new stage of epidemiological transition

(Vishnevsky, 2014) (“second epidemiological

revolution”, “sanitary transition”,

“cardiovascular revolution”), reducing mortality

from non-infectious causes. Conversely, other

regions have not yet succeeded in limiting the role of

external death factors.

Second, the ageing process ‘from above’ occurs in

66 RF subjects, where women of 55 years and older

have a relatively high life expectancy associated with

social, cultural and economic factors (Ivanova, 2010;

Roshchin, 2005) forming a healthy lifestyle and self-

preserving behaviour. In almost all countries of the

world, women live longer than men; therefore, as a

rule, the population ageing process is accompanied by

its feminization (Arber, 2016). In these RF subjects,

the difference between the life expectancy of men and

women who have reached 60 and 55 years,

respectively, is about 10 years.

Taking into account all the criteria, it is only in

Moscow that the old population structure has

developed. Although the ageing coefficient here is

not the highest among other regions, in 2018, 27.2%

of the population was older than the working age. In

terms of this indicator, Moscow ranked the 30th

among all RF subjects. However, compared to other

RF subjects with an ageing coefficient of over 25%

(in 2018, this number was 45), the Moscow

population is ageing as a result of a decreased

mortality among the elderly rather than an increased

fertility. In Moscow, the life expectancy of men who

have reached 60 years exceeded 20 years, which is

associated with the availability and quality of medical

services, as well as health-preserving behaviour of the

population.

A high migration outflow of the population is

observed from the subjects of the North-West, Far

North and Far East, as well as from the border

Measuring Population Ageing in Russian Regions: A Step-by-Step Approach

237

regions. These regions are considered unfavourable

due to the climatic conditions and low living

standards. In Russia, centres of attraction for migrants

were formed: national (Leningrad, Moscow and

Kaliningrad Oblast, Sevastopol, Moscow and St.

Petersburg) and regional (Tyumen Oblast, the

Republics of Ingushetia and Adygea). The centre-

peripheral migration movement is determined by

various, in particular, economic factors. As noted by

Becker G. (Becker, 1993), the migration decision is

made by weighing the potential advantages and costs,

as well as by comparing the current standard of living

with the expected one. Therefore, the unsatisfactory

quality of life in peripheral regions forms a negative

migration balance, which makes younger populations

to migrate to more prosperous central regions.

4 CONCLUSIONS

According to the conducted analysis, the process of

population ageing is observed across the entire

territory of Russia. However, this process is

extremely uneven between Russian regions. Thus,

younger RF subjects are those, where either the

process of demographic transition is in the initial

stages or the reproduction of the population is

determined by migration. In most RF subjects, the

process of population ageing occurs ‘from below’,

with its reason being a decline in fertility rather than

a decline in mortality. At the same time, in many

regions, mortality among women is shifting markedly

to later ages, contributing to a higher feminization of

the ageing population. An older age structure was

formed only in Moscow, where the life expectancy of

the elderly population is steadily increasing.

The revealed specifics of population ageing in

Russian regions should be considered when

developing state policies aimed at improving the

living standards of the elderly population. The

measures of the so-called silver economy, such as

provision of geriatric services and creation of new

jobs friendly to older people, can only be effective

when the overall mortality rate is decreased and

shifted to later ages. Therefore, the priority tasks

should be health preservation of the population

(particularly relevant for men), higher living

standards and improved working conditions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The article was prepared with the support of the

Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Grant No.

19-010-00373 «Security and pseudo-security of the

economic development of Russian regions influenced

by multidirectional trends»).

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