Demographic Issues as a Condition for the Regions Sustainable

Development (on the Example of the Irkutsk Region)

O. B. Istomina

, Yu. R. Gerasimova

and M. K. Gaiday

Irkut State University, Irkutsk, Russia

Irkut National Research Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia

East Siberian Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, Irkutsk, Russia

Keywords: Russian Region, Demographic Structure, Migration, Population Movement, Quality of Life, Life Expectancy,

Sustainable Development.

Abstract: The authors analyze the state, forms, demographic structure dynamics factors and their role in the regions

sustainable development program. The article justifies the viewpoint on the demographic indicators and the

region socio-economic situation interdependence. The data from statistical agencies on the natural and

migration decline of the population are analyzed. As determinants of transformations of the Irkutsk region

quantitative and qualitative population characteristics, the authors identify destructive changes in the quality

of life of the population in the region, a decrease in the human development index, a steady decline in

population real incomes and, in this regard, the persistence of trends in subsidizing the poor, an increase in

the volume of this stratum in the social structure, the entrenchment of negative trends in short life expectancy

and problems with providing medical services, as well as environmental threats. In the article, the authors

substantiate the demand for serious long-term socially-oriented measures for the peripheral northern territories

development, the population preservation and multiplication, improving the quality of life to ensure the

effectiveness of sustainable development programs measures, as well as the integrity of the state borders and

the elimination of socio-economic and stratification disunity of the Russian regions.

1 INTRODUCTION

The choice of the research topic is caused by the

significant changes in the demographic structure in

many regions of modern Russian society. The Irkutsk

region is a prime example of the transformations that

are typical for the entire Siberian Federal District. The

dynamic state is characterized by a number of

polyvariant forms and social expressions from mass

migration to the central part of the country and the

northern territories "emptying" to changes in the

ethno-national structure in the studied region,

changes in the gender and age pyramid and a decrease

in the total birth rate. The situation with the

population composition negative dynamics caused by

both natural causes (the health level, the population

life expectancy, an emergency situation for a number

of diseases, including cancer and HIV) and unnatural

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4060-6106

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1428-7319

factors in a socio-economic nature (economic

unattractiveness, a decrease in real incomes, an

increase in labor migration to the central and southern

regions of Russia) raises concerns. The destructive

nature of stable trends in the region demographic

indicators transformation significantly actualizes the

designated topic, which determined the object,

purpose and methods of this study.

The object of the study is the state, forms, factors

of the demographic structure transformation and its

role in the modern region development (based on the

materials from the Irkutsk region).

The purpose of the study is to determine the

Irkutsk region demographic structure current state, to

identify its transformation factors, to analyze the

demographic characteristics of 2000-2021, to identify

the dynamics forms and social forecasts in relation to

Istomina, O., Gerasimova, Y. and Gaiday, M.

Demographic Issues as a Condition for the Regions Sustainable Development (on the Example of the Irkutsk Region).

DOI: 10.5220/0010667400003223

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems (WFSDS 2021), pages 287-292

ISBN: 978-989-758-597-5

287

changes in the demographic indicators of the region

typical for the Siberian Federal District.

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

In the paper the authors conducted a secondary

analysis of the results of surveys conducted by the

All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research, the

Federal State Statistics Service statistical data, the

Federal State Statistics Service for the Irkutsk Region

territorial body, as well as the research materials of

Irkutsk public organizations aimed at determining the

population quality of life and at solving the Baikal

Region demographic structure dynamics problems.

The Russian regions demographic analysis are

characterized components are characterized

according to the data from the National Demographic

Report - 2020 (Ryazancev, Arhangel'skij and

Vorob'eva, 2020) and the census periods of 2002-

2010 results.

The article summarizes the experience of foreign

and domestic researchers to determine the conceptual

positions, among them are: J. Olaguibe, D. López-

Hernández, A.Yu. Chang, V.F. Skirbekk, S.

Tirovoras, S. Kassebaum, Dzh. L. Dil'man, V.N.

Barsukov, O.N. Kalachikova, N.А. Khvylya-Olinter,

O.V. Arakcheeva, I.Yu. Krivdina, S.V. Ryazantsev,

V.N. Arkhangel'sky, O.D. Vorob'eva, O.L.

Rybakovsky, O.A. Tayunova, V.G. Dobrokhleb etc.

(Olaguibe; and López-Hernández, 2021; Chang,

Skirbekk, Tirovoras, Kassebaum and Dil'man Dzh,

2019 Arakcheeva and Krivdina, 2020; Ryazancev,

Arhangel'skij and Vorob'eva, 2020; Dobrohleb, 2020;

Vinokurov and Suhodolov, 2009).

3 RESEARCH RESULTS

The natural and migration decrease of the population

in Eastern Siberia is accompanied by a number of

destructive socio-economic processes, including an

increase in the demographic burden, an aging

population, an increase in the decile coefficient and a

decrease in the quality of life, an increase in ammount

of depressed people against the background of a

decrease in the population real incomes and an

increase in social disadvantage in the region, a

decrease in the human development index. So,

according to the regional Statistics Committee, in the

third quarter of 2020, 92,478 people lived in families

receiving subsidies, which is 7% of the total number

of families. The share of the population with

monetary incomes below the subsistence minimum is

still significant. Today, 17.6% of the total population

receives subsidies to meet the vital order minimum

needs.

These processes indicate the expected objectivity

and the regularity of destructive changes in the

demographic structure of Eastern Siberia in general

and the Irkutsk Region in particular. The negative

processes that have emerged since the late 1990s have

taken root and are showing expansion tendencies. So,

for example, the region population since 1995 has

decreased by 373,052 people (from 2,748,073 people

in 1995 to 2,375,021 people on 01/01/2021). The

current population figures are comparable to those of

the 1970. The natural population decrease in January-

March 2021 was 2,819 people (9,259 deaths for 6,440

births were registered) (Demograficheskie pokazateli

Irkutskoj oblasti, 2020). Due to the new infectious

disease Covid-19, 2,280 deaths were recorded with

66,843 cases of infection as at 05/05/2021. The

number of migrants arriving today does not

compensate the population natural loss. Since the

beginning of this year, the population decrease has

amounted to 647 people (11,691 arrivals account for

12,338 departures) (Ryazancev, Arhangel'skij and

Vorob'eva, 2020) It should be noted that the decrease

in the population in the region is correlated with

losses within the whole state.

The types of migration and its balance in the

Irkutsk Region have been stable since the late 1990s.

There is a negative balance of both interregional and

international migration types (Table 1).

Table 1: The Irkutsk region population migration types.

Migration growth

(decrease)

2019 2020

ration as a whole -3,250 -7,069

Within Russia -7,426 6,753

Intrare

ional 0 0

Interregional -5,614 -6,753

International migration 4,151 -316

With the CIS countries 1,990 672

With other forei

n countries 2,161 -988

Out of the total volume –

the region external

ration

-3,275 -7,069

These changes cause the greatest concern in the

situation with accounting the population average age

(Table 2). On his basis it is not possible to predict

natural population growth in the coming decades in

the region. The transition of the female stratum to the

age group over 40 years causes low expectations for

an increase in childbirth in the region.

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288

Table 2: Average population age (at the beginning of 2020).

Territory All

population

(

both sexes

)

Men

Women

Russian

Federation

40.23 37.47 42.63

Siberian

Federal

District

39.12 36.38 41.49

Irkutsk

region

37.88 34.96 40.4

Moreover, the average age indicators (only at the

initial view) can generate optimistic estimates and

forecasts, while a detailed analysis of the region

population reveals negative trends in short life

expectancy in the region, especially in the male

stratum. Life expectancy in 2021, according to the

Regional Statistics Committee information

references, will be 70.58 years (64.86 years for men,

76.3 years for women). In terms of these indicators,

the Irkutsk Region is significantly behind the average

indicators not only for Russia, the Siberian Federal

District, but also for some regions with traditionally

high life expectancy. Thus, the average population

life expectancy in the subjects of the Russian

Federation was noted at the level of 66.8 years (60.5

years for men; 73.3 years for women), on the 80th

position out of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation.

The Irkutsk Region outpaces only the Republic of

Tyva, the Chukotka Autonomous District, the Jewish

Autonomous Region (the data are given on

01/01/2016). Unfortunately, these trends persist in the

current environment. With the expected decline in the

total birth rate, the destructive vector in the dynamics

of the region demographic structure is objectively

difficult to change (Table 3).

Table 3: Total birth rate (number of children per woman).

Year Total

opulation

Urban

opulation

Rural

opulation

2020 1.697 1.561 2.337

2025 1.581 1.454 2.177

2030 1.641 1.509 2.260

2035 1.693 1.557 2.331

It is important to understand that the demographic

structure state is at the same time the population

quality of life indicator, the region social well-being

indicator and a factor of a region social stability and

territories preservation. With the current population

density of the region (3.07 people per km2 with an

area of 774.8 thousand km2), the Irkutsk region

occupies the 6th place out of 20 regions of Siberia,

which is 150 times less than in the Moscow region.

The settlement unevenness determines not only the

sparsely populated area, but also the weak

development of the northern regions, where

population density differs significantly (more than

100 times from the national indicators) (Vinokurov

and Suhodolov, 2009). This information is important

not only from the state internal geopolitics viewpoint,

from ensuring socio-economic balance and social

justice in different regions of the country, but also in

relation to foreign policy in the context of Western

aggression increasing and the growth in the territorial

interests of Eastern neighbors. Moreover, it is

difficult to overestimate the importance of the number

and territorial location of the population for

preserving the integrity of the state borders.

In modern realities, it is obvious that the expected

birth rate depends not only on the physiological

characteristics of the population in birth age, but to a

greater extent it depends on the region socio-

economic indicators, the quality of life level, the

social well-being indicator and the nature of the

population social expectations.

Risk factors in the region are social indicators that

determine the duration and quality of life, which

prevent the establishment of health-saving behavior

and the active longevity extension. Still some

difficulties remain in providing timely, high-quality

medical care and recreational activities. For several

decades the region has maintained a high mortality

rate from the cardiovascular system diseases,

tuberculosis (it exceeds the all-Russian indicators

twice), HIV (according to the Federal Register of

Patients, as at 01/01/2019, 28,808 people with the

immunodeficiency virus are registered in the Irkutsk

region, 82.6% of the infected people are registered,

60.4% of the dispensary group receive the therapy),

cancer (500 cases per 100,000 people, in the Baikal

region cancer is diagnosed by a thousand more cases

every year). There are still high statistics of primary

drug use and the drug addiction formation (23.7 new

cases of drug use are registered per 100,000 children

and adolescents in the region). The situation is

significantly complicated by the high level of

alcoholization among the population (despite low

incomes, the population spends significant amounts

to meet the needs of alcohol addiction, for example,

according to 2016 data, an adult resident spent 15,724

rubles on alcohol, without taking into account the

alcohol self-production and the technical alcohol-

containing liquids consumption) (Massovoe

otravlenie v Irkutske) and the growth of mass non-

communicable diseases (the morbidity threshold is

1.8 times higher than the all-Russian one due to the

Demographic Issues as a Condition for the Regions Sustainable Development (on the Example of the Irkutsk Region)

289

environmental factors harmful effects) (Press-vypusk

VCIOM). The accumulation of these destructive

processes has been exacerbated by the ill-considered

regional policy of the regional Ministry of Health

since 2018, when a massive reduction in medical

personnel (by 6,000 staff units) was carried out.

According to the experts, today the shortage in the

full-time number of medical staff is approximately

equal to 30,000 employees. The regional medical

institutions are staffed by less than 50%. Moreover,

the data need to be clarified, since during the

pandemic there were even greater losses in the

number of medical staff because of natural losses due

to infection, as well as due to migration from the

profession due to the growth of already high labor

intensity. It is obvious that these listed circumstances

significantly complicate the planned demographic

indicators implementation in the region, objectively

jeopardize the achievement of the total life

expectancy (by 2035, according to the plan in the

region – 76.78 years, 72.13 years for men, 81.23 years

for women). These processes generally have a

negative impact on the social well-being and social

reality perception, which, from an objective and

subjective points of view, contributes to the growth of

depressive moods among the region population.

4 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

There is no doubt that the regional demographic

structure dynamics is a social phenomenon with a

complex nature, determined by the influence of a

composite of objective economic and subjective

socio-psychological factors.

The objective side of the issue traditionally

includes the population nominal and real income, life

expectancy, availability of high-quality medical care

and recreational activities, stable working conditions,

housing conditions that meet sanitary standards, the

amount of vital and cultural goods consumed, and the

safety of life and health.

The subjective, but also relevant side, are social

affiliation, full participation in public life, social well-

being, life satisfaction index, the level of population

inclusion in social relations and cultural

environments.

Despite the current socio-economic situation

disappointing statistics of the region, its territories

today are characterized by social processes of a dual

nature, including not only destruction, but also some

advantages over other Russian regions.

These advantages include the geolocation

features, the natural resources presence and diversity,

the landscape and minerals richness. But at the same

time, there are still real threats to the environmental

situation in the region. There are still unresolved

issues assessed by the modern scientific community

as eco-disasters that pose threats not only to the

region, but also to the territories of neighboring

regions and the entire State, including (these are, first

of all, man-made "traces" in Usolye-Sibirskoye,

Baikal, etc.), "frightening" indicators of the air, water,

and land pollution. The region has an extensive

production, which simultaneously "feeds" the

territory, finances an extensive structure of

educational, cultural and leisure institutions, but also

lays new environmental risks.

5 CONCLUSION

So, the dynamics of the Irkutsk region demographic

structure are influenced by many trends of the current

time. Among them, in our opinion, the most important

are:

 progressing natural population decrease;

 low birth rate;

 the migration losses that increased during the

pandemic and the maintaining traditional

negative migration balance;

 the increase in the decline of the economically

active population migrating to more prosperous

regions, as a rule, to the central part and the

southern territories of Russia;

 the increase in the demographic burden and the

growth of the modern pension system financial

needs due to the aging of the region's

population and the older people stratum

expansion;

 the preservation of low average life expectancy

trends (80th place out of all subjects of the

Russian Federation);

 the unemployment rate, narrowness of labor

spheres in the single-industry cities of the

region (Angarsk, Usolye-Sibirskoye, Baikalsk,

Sayansk, Shelekhov, etc.);

 low real incomes, most of which is spent on the

vital goods, especially in the region remote

areas;

 the labor crisis and the growth of

unemployment, which led to the shadow

employment expansion in all age groups;

 low per capita income;

 the infrastructure development disadvantages;

 small ammount of quotas for providing

affordable recreation for children and adults;

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290

 "personnel shortage" in the health care system

and the resulting medical care problems.

 the insufficient recreational conditions to

ensure active longevity programs, the older

generation active social life development;

 some vital environmental issues that require

government intervention and assistance.

The identified social processes have a negative

impact on the social well-being of the population.

There is no doubt that the region is in great demand

for federal support to prevent a decline in

demographic indicators and to develop the quality of

life of the population in the peripheral territories. It

seems, that long-term, logically verified (on the basis

of social forecasts) additional measures are needed on

the part of the state social protection services

(Istomina; 2013). The corrective nature of these

measures is explained by the importance of the

northern territories development. It is obvious that the

population preservation, the improvement of the

residents well-being is an indispensable condition for

the territories and State borders preservation. It also

contributes to the elimination of regional disunity in

the stratification system of modern Russian society

and it is an indispensable condition for the regions

sustainable development.

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