The economy of the Kemerovo region, as before,
is natural capital intensive and the transition to a new
qualitative level of economic growth is becoming
very problematic.
The economy of the Kemerovo region, as before,
is natural capital intensive and the transition to a new
qualitative level of economic growth is becoming
very problematic. This type of economic
development follows an extensive path and in
conditions of increasing technological potential of
developed and developing countries, it is determined
by an extremely unstable macroeconomic trend.
In modern conditions of the development of
convergent technologies, the sixth wave of
innovations, the sustainability of economic growth
and the development of old-industry regions is
determined by the direction of shifts occurring in the
structure of the economy, and, first of all, in the
structure of reproduction. Thus, structural shifts in
investment in fixed assets by type of economic
activity (Table 1) reveal clear distortions in favor of
the extraction of minerals throughout the entire post-
Soviet period. It is also a regrettable fact that the share
of investments aimed at environmental protection and
rational use of natural resources in the investments
pattern is extremely small and amounts to no more
than 2%, and investments in intellectual property
objects - less than 1%.
Thus, it is the quality of structural changes that
determines the sustainability of economic
development and the stabilization of its growth in the
long term (Uskova, 2020). The presented indicators
characterizing the sectoral makeup of the economy of
the Kemerovo region - Kuzbass demonstrate the
transition of the economy from the late industrial type
with a predominance in its structure of industries
producing goods with high added value to the early
industrial type, specializing in the extraction of
natural resources. The increase in the production
potential of Kuzbass is limited by the growth of the
mining sector, which poses a threat to environmental
safety and, in general, hinders the potential for
sustainable development.
On the other hand, the strengthening of the
industrial orientation of economic growth does not
have a negative environmental effect if high-tech
industries take the lion's share in the structure of
industrial production (Stupen and Taratula, 2019).
But in the Kemerovo region, the situation is
somewhat different.
The rate of accumulation of investments in fixed
assets in GRP in 2015-2018 is almost stable and
amounts to about 20%. In 2019, the accumulation rate
was 26%. Intensive growth and a high rate of gross
fixed capital formation provide only at first high rates
of economic growth and are mandatory, but
insufficient conditions for the implementation of the
concept of sustainable development. The value of this
indicator for the Kemerovo region is low.
Undoubtedly, when a certain level of economic
development is reached, a relatively lower rate of
capital investments will be required to ensure a given
growth as a result of more efficient use of
investments.
The unsatisfactory dynamics of investments in
fixed assets is currently one of the main conditions
that have a disturbing effect on the transition of the
economy to the trajectory of sustainable
development. At the same time, the possibilities of
production growth due to the better use of fixed assets
are extremely limited due to the high level of their
depreciation (over 50%).
According to the chosen logic of the study, let us
turn to the analysis of the ongoing structural changes
in the regional economy (Table 2).
Structural changes in the economy are the drivers
of economic growth. Of course, over time, structural
changes are inevitable due to the differentiated
influence of technological innovations in a number of
industries, different elasticities of demand for goods,
works and services.
Structural changes in output by sectors of the
Kemerovo region's economy in dynamics over 15
years show a decrease in the share of agriculture and
processing in GRP, an increase during the analyzed
period and a slight decrease by the end of 2019 in the
share of mining.
The share of agriculture in the GRP is declining
despite the fact that agricultural products can be an
export commodity. In the context of forced import
substitution due to the imposition of sanctions,
consumer preferences shifted towards the support of
the domestic producer.
We believe that one of the priority measures for a
coal-mining region should be the diversification of
exports (as an option, agricultural products, in
particular, raw materials or certain types of their
primary processing) in order to reduce the
dependence on fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices.
An interesting fact is that, despite the volatility of
energy prices, the transition of a number of countries
to low-carbon development strategies, reduced
demand for coal, the use of renewable energy sources,
the share of production in the GRP structure of the
Kemerovo region is stable. In our opinion, an
alarming trend is the reduction in the share of
processing industries in the GRP of the Kemerovo