Problems of the Implementation of the Paris Agreements in the

Post-pandemic Reality

Alexander Yu. Prosekov

, Artеm O. Rada

and Oksana I. Nikitina

Technological Institute of Food Industry, Kemerovo State University, Krasnaya Street, 6, Kemerovo, Russia

Institute of Digitalization, Kemerovo State University, Krasnaya Street, 6, Kemerovo, Russia

Keywords: Covid 19 Pandemic, Sustainable Development, Greenhouse Gases, Paris Agreement, Global Economy.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermaths impede the achievement of sustainable development goals,

including reducing the carbon footprint and tackling climate change. The purpose of the study is to identify

the main problems and assess the prospects for the implementation of the Paris Agreement in the post-

pandemic world, taking into account the specifics of individual countries. Research methods – analysis of the

growth rates of greenhouse gas emissions by countries of the world, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis,

GAP analysis. As a result, it was found that most countries in the world fulfil the obligations of the Paris

Agreement (especially the countries of the European Union), but the largest emitters of greenhouse gases

(China, India, Brazil, Australia, etc.) increased their emissions in 2019 compared to 2015. Growth in

greenhouse gas emissions in China more than its decline in the European Union. In general, the variation in

the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions is very large. Consequently, the goals of the Paris Agreement are

being implemented extremely unevenly. The study highlights the main barriers to this, and formulates a

number of measures to reduce them. In particular, it is necessary to develop an international consensus with

the participation of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases on the imposition of obligations on individual

countries within the framework of international law. Developing countries must be provided with resources

and expertise to reduce their carbon footprint. However, the decisive importance for the implementation of

the Paris agreements will be the removal of technological restrictions on carbon-free energy.

1 INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus pandemic and the resulting global

economic crisis have sharply exacerbated many

global problems, although even before the pandemic,

progress in most countries of the world in achieving

the sustainable development goals was insufficient

(Shulla et al., 2021). The spread of the new

coronavirus infection COVID-19 also influenced the

possibility of realizing the Thirteenth UN Sustainable

Development Goal, which, as you know, implies

“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its

impacts” (Campbell et al., 2018: 13).

On the one hand, it could be assumed that

lockdowns, restrictions on business life, and social

activity would lead to a decrease in the use of fossil

fuels, a reduction in the carbon footprint, at least to

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some extent (Heggen, Sandseta & Engebretsen,

2020). On the other hand, vital economic activities,

such as mining or agriculture, continued as usual, and

the overall potential for reducing greenhouse gas

emissions was not so great (Wang & Huang, 2021).

At the same time, the economic crisis has reduced the

resource opportunities for investment in reducing the

carbon footprint, especially in developing countries.

Many are looking to use cheap fuel to rebuild their

economies (Ekwebelem et al., 2021). Therefore, it

will be even more difficult for all countries of the

world to achieve carbon neutrality after the pandemic.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the

achievement of sustainable development goals

related to mitigating climate change, reducing the

carbon footprint and reducing greenhouse gas

emissions are discussed in separate studies.

Prosekov, A., Rada, A. and Nikitina, O.

Problems of the Implementation of the Paris Agreements in the Post-pandemic Reality.

DOI: 10.5220/0011111300003439

In Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference "COVID-19: Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals" (RTCOV 2021), pages 103-108

ISBN: 978-989-758-617-0

103

According to estimates presented in a press release

from the United Nations Environment Program, the

COVID-19 pandemic, the ensuing restrictions and

bans on economic activities led only to a temporary

reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the effect of

which quickly disappeared in 2021. In particular,

carbon monoxide emissions in 2020 declined by

5.6%, well below the slowdown in the global

economy, and the concentration of major greenhouse

gases continued to rise in 2020 and the first half of

2020 (United Nations, 2021).

It should be noted that the decrease in greenhouse

gas emissions in 2020 is largely due to the

minimization of civil aviation flights, a decrease in

cargo turnover on sea routes, as well as the limitation

of travel by private vehicles (Le Quéré et al., 2020).

Emissions from thermal power plants remained

virtually unchanged (Forster et al., 2020). Since

measures to restrict movement, tourism, and social

contacts cannot last forever (Sarfraz et al., 2021), in a

post-pandemic situation, no new fundamental factors

arise that could affect the reduction of greenhouse

gases. Rather, on the contrary, the pandemic has

reduced human resources to combat climate change

(Heyd, 2020).

Reviewed by Kumar et al. (2021) states a

scientific consensus on the short-term effect of the

COVID-19 pandemic in reducing greenhouse gases

and the new challenges of reducing the carbon

footprint in the complex post-pandemic reality.

Therefore, further research is needed on how various

countries around the world could reduce greenhouse

gas emissions in difficult economic conditions. As

you know, the obligations of countries to reduce their

carbon footprint are established by the Paris

Agreement of 2015. However, its implementation

even before the pandemic was associated with great

difficulties, and states were only morally responsible

for ignoring their goals (Mitchell et al, 2018).

Therefore, the purpose of the study is to identify the

main problems and assess the prospects for the

implementation of the Paris Agreement in the post-

pandemic world, taking into account the specifics of

individual countries.

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The study employs a blended research strategy

combining quantitative and qualitative methods to

analyse empirical data on the level of implementation

of the Paris Agreement and its prospects for the

future. The study design includes two stages. At the

first stage, using standard methods of descriptive

statistics, the results of the implementation of the

Paris Agreement in 2015-2020 were assessed, on the

basis of correlation analysis; the relationship between

carbon tax and emission reductions in European

countries was investigated. Greenhouse gas

emissions data were obtained from The World Bank

(2020, 2021).

At the second stage of the study, a GAP analysis

was carried out to improve understanding of the main

problems associated with the implementation of the

Paris Agreement in the post-pandemic world. For

this, expert assessments were used, presented in

various sources in natural language, collected and

summarized by the authors. Based on the identified

problems and deviations, key tasks and activities

were formulated that can contribute to a more

complete implementation of the Paris Agreement.

3 RESEARCH RESULTS

Table 1 presents data on the dynamics of greenhouse

gas emissions in the largest countries of the world in

2019 compared to 2015. We do not consider 2020 in

our study, because this year, greenhouse gas

emissions have decreased in almost all countries of

the world under the influence of an external shock

(COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns). We focused

on the largest emitters of greenhouse gases such as

China, India or Russia, as well as the European Union

countries where many measures are used to reduce

their carbon footprint, including a carbon tax.

Table 1: Dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions by

countries of the world, 2019 to 2015.

Countries 2015,

MtCO2e

2019,

MtCO2e

Growth

rate,%

Icelan

4 2

–

50.0

Irelan

60 37

–

38.3

Liechtenstein 4 3

–

25.0

Sweden 4 3

–

25.0

Portugal 53 41

–

22.6

Denmar

6 5

–

16.7

Norwa

7 6

–

14.3

Polan

313 280

–

10.5

German

904 810

–

10.4

Japan 1220 1110

–

9.0

Switzerlan

41 38

–

7.3

ain 288 271

–

5.9

France 339 324

–

4.4

Finlan

55 53

–

3.6

South Korea 697 676

–

3.0

United States 6671 6558

–

1.7

United Kingdo

505 498

–

1.4

Estonia 12 12 0.0

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Latvia 4 4 0.0

Ukraine 4 4 0.0

Brazil 1056 1068 1.1

Russia 2094 2119 1.2

Australia

533 545 2.3

Canada

707 730 3.3

Argentina

344 356 3.5

Indonesia

835 872 4.4

Turkey

473 506 7.0

China

12698 13633 7.4

South Africa

550 600 9.1

India

2797 3153 12.7

Slovenia

6 7 16.7

The data in Table 1 show that not all countries

demonstrate progress in the implementation of the

Paris Agreement. Out of 31 countries, only 17 (about

55%) reduced greenhouse gas emissions, while 11

countries (about 35%) increased them. In another 3

countries, emissions did not change significantly. But

it is important that the reduction in emissions is

observed in those countries that had minimum

volumes already in 2015. For example, in Iceland,

greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 50%, in

Ireland – by more than 38%. But in absolute terms, it

is only 25 MtCO2e, which is not a significant value

on a global scale.

In 17 countries, emissions were reduced by 456

MtCO2e in total. At the same time, China's

greenhouse gas emissions increased by 935 MtCO2e,

leading to an increase in global emissions. As can be

seen from the data in Table 1, economically

developed countries, mainly the countries of the

European Union, as well as the USA, Japan and South

Korea, have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions.

In developing and transitional countries, greenhouse

gas emissions increased, in India the increase was

12.7%, in South Africa – by 9.1%. Even economically

advanced Canada has not been able to move towards

carbon neutrality.

Consequently, almost all of the efforts to reduce

carbon footprint are in the European Union, the

United States and Japan. Other states are unwilling or

unable to take real steps to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions. The large stratification of countries in the

world in terms of the dynamics of greenhouse gas

emissions is confirmed by the descriptive statistics

calculated by the authors (Table 2). We analysed only

the relative reduction in emissions, since the absolute

decline depends on the size of the population, the

volume of the gross domestic product and is

characterized by an even higher variation.

Table 2: Descriptive statistics of the indicator “growth rate

of greenhouse gas emissions” in 2019 relative to 2020.

Arithmetic mean

–

5.82

Modal meaning 0.00

Median value

–

1.70

Swi

e variation 66.70

Avera

e linear deviation 10.66

Corrected

(

unbiased

)

variance 209.07

Standard deviation 14.22

Variation coefficient, percent 244.43 (strong)

Oscillation coefficient, percent

–

1146.18

Tor

ue as

mmetr

coefficient

–

1.25

(

Left-sided

)

Distribution kurtosis 1.58

The data in Table 2 show that the arithmetic mean,

mode and median differ significantly: the median is

much larger. However, it is more typical for the

sample to reduce emissions by at least 1-5%. At the

same time, the variation is quite large; the coefficient

of variation exceeds 240%, which indicates a very

high variation. The range of variation reaches almost

67%. The presence of left-sided (positive) asymmetry

is a consequence of the fact that values below the

average are more often found, i.e. most countries have

reduced their emissions to a greater extent.

The distribution of the studied indicator is not

normal. The observed value of Pearson's statistics

was 168.41 with an interval width of 11.70, while the

critical value is at 37.65. If the observed value of the

Pearson statistic falls into the critical region, it is

necessary to reject the hypothesis that the distribution

is normal. Consequently, there is considerable

variation at the level of different countries of the

world. While most governments, as discussed above,

have reduced their emissions, several large

greenhouse gas emitters have discounted these

efforts. Reduction of emissions by 10% or more was

observed in those countries where the absolute

emissions are low: from 5-7 to 50-60 MtCO2e. In

countries with large absolute greenhouse gas

emissions (2000 MtCO2e and more), the reduction

was minimal (1-3%) or an increase was observed.

In general, developing countries and countries

with economies in transition, as well as some

developed countries, such as Canada or Australia, in

2016-2019 increased greenhouses gas emissions by

1496 MtCO2e or 6.8% in relation to the level of 2015.

Thus, the unevenness of efforts and the results of

different countries in reducing greenhouse gas

emissions lead to the fact that the Paris Agreement is

not being implemented.

An important economic mechanism for reducing

greenhouse gas emissions is considered to be the

carbon tax, which is often used in the countries of the

European Union. Table 3 shows the carbon tax rates

Problems of the Implementation of the Paris Agreements in the Post-pandemic Reality

105

according to the growth rate of greenhouse gas

emissions in Europe.

Maximum carbon tax rates (around € 100 per

metric ton of CO2) have been introduced in Sweden,

Liechtenstein and Switzerland. In countries such as

Poland and Ukraine, they are very low and are more

of a formal political declaration of commitment to

fight than a current method of influencing emissions.

The study calculated the Pearson correlation

coefficient to assess the impact of the carbon tax on

the potential for emission reductions under the Paris

Agreement.

Table 3: The relationship between carbon tax rates and the

dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe.

Countries Growth

rate,%

Carbon tax rate,

€

er metric ton

Sweden

–

25.0 108.81

Liechtenstein

–

25.0 90.53

Switzerlan

–

7.3 90.53

Finlan

–

3.6 62.18

Norway

–

14.3 48.46

France

–

4.4 44.81

Icelan

–

50.0 27.43

Irelan

–

38.3 25.60

Portugal

–

22.6 23.77

Denmar

–

16.7 23.77

United Kin

–

1.4 20.12

Slovenia 16.7 17.37

ain

–

5.9 14.63

Latvia 0.0 9.14

Estonia 0.0 1.83

Ukraine 0.0 0.37

Polan

–

10.5 0.09

The correlation coefficient was –0.2761, which is

below the level of statistical significance (with the

number of degrees of freedom about 30, the module

of the critical value, the correlation coefficient should

be higher than 0.3494 at the 5% significance level).

Consequently, the amount of the carbon tax is not

related to the rate of emission reduction.

Implementation of the Paris Agreement requires the

use of new instruments.

4 THE DISCUSSION OF THE

RESULTS

The survey results show that the Paris Agreement

faced significant challenges during the period 2016-

2019. A large number of developed countries have

made significant progress towards carbon neutrality,

but the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in them

is too small for even a 30-50% reduction to

significantly affect the concentration of CO2 in the

Earth's atmosphere. The growth in greenhouse gas

emissions in China or India is much higher than the

decline in the entire European Union. As noted above,

the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns have

contributed to some reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions, but this is a temporary short-term effect. In

the period of recovery from the pandemic and the

recovery of the global economy, greenhouse gas

emissions will continue to grow, and human resources

for the transition to a low-carbon economy have

already sharply decreased. In this regard, in Table 4,

the authors present a GAP analysis of the

implementation of the Paris Agreement in the post-

pandemic period of the development of the global

economy. For the GAP analysis, the following groups

of problems were identified.

1. The Paris Agreement is not a legally binding

document; rather, it is a declaration of intent that may

not be implemented by individual countries. The

agreement does not contain specific sanctions for

abandoning emission reduction targets and a

mechanism for their application. Ratification of the

Paris Agreement does not impose legal obligations on

the country in the understanding of modern

international law.

2. Objective very large technical difficulties in the

use of renewable energy sources with a low or zero

carbon footprints. The practice of recent years has

shown that it is extremely difficult for wind and solar

energy in developed countries to meet the needs of

industry and a population accustomed to a high level

of comfort. This is especially pronounced during the

period of unfavourable weather conditions

(anticyclones, calm, and frost). In addition, a

significant amount of solid waste accumulates over

time in renewable energy. Alternative promising

energy sources, such as thermonuclear reaction or

hydrogen energy, cannot yet provide the bulk of

humanity's energy needs for technological reasons.

3. For many countries around the world, there is a

lack of both economic opportunity and motivation to

move to a low-carbon economy. In contrast, emerging

developing countries such as Indonesia and the

Philippines are declaring plans to increase production

of the most greenhouse fossil fuels (coal) as a source

of cheap energy and currency. Turkey is also pursuing

a policy of expanding coal consumption. The

financial and technological capabilities of these

countries are significantly lower than that of the

United States or the European Union, and politicians

and the population are often negatively disposed

towards everything that comes from Brussels or

Washington. In many developing countries, there is a

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perception of the use of decarbonization instruments

as a measure of unfair competition. All this leads to

ignorance of the Paris Agreement by many states.

4. The imbalance of the used technical and

economic solutions to reduce the carbon footprint,

due, inter alia, to political competition and lobbying

of various groups of influence. The focus is on the

direct reduction of carbon emissions from burning

fossil fuels, while CO2 is a resource that can be used

in various industries as well as in agriculture.

Table 4: GAP analysis of the implementation of the Paris

Agreement in the post-pandemic period of the development

of the global economy.

Identified

deviations

Key tasks Response plans

1. The Paris

Agreement

is more a

declaration

of intent

than a

binding

document

Creation of a

mechanism of

international

legal

responsibility,

taking into

account the

inalienable

rights of

sovereign

states

Development and signing

under the Paris Agreement

of an additional document

with legally significant

obligations

Progress towards climate

goals as a condition for

inclusion in the

development agenda and

support for developing

countries

Broad international

discussion with the aim of

developing mechanisms to

control and stimulate the

implementation of climate

goals in the framework of

international law

2. Technical

problems

and

limitations

of carbon-

free energy

Development

fundamentally

new

technologies

for generating

energy with a

minimum

carbon

footprint

Stimulating and supporting

research that may result in

fundamentally new energy

technologies

Use of nuclear energy

technologies with minimal

or zero hazard to obtain

electrical and thermal

energy

Development and

replication of fossil fuel

combustion technologies

with capture of greenhouse

gases for their subsequent

use

3. Lack of

opportunity

and

motivation

in many

developing

countries

Normalization

international

relations, the

search for new

forms of

productive

interaction

Creation of investment

funds and financial

institutions that provide

long-term investment

instruments for the

transition of developing

countries to low-carbon

ener

and economies

4. The

imbalance

of different

directions

for reducing

greenhouse

gas

emissions

Smart

selection of

tools for

absorbing

generated

CO2 or

reducing its

emissions by

efficiency

parameter

Implementation of projects

involving the growth of

green mass (planting

forests) and the absorption

of excess CO2 by crop

production

Reduction or transfer to new

technologies, first of all, of

those facilities that give

maximum emissions with

minimum energy efficienc

Achieving climate targets in a post-pandemic

reality will be challenging. Lack of resources,

motivation and technology creates powerful barriers

to reducing your carbon footprint. It can be assumed

that the transition to a low-carbon economy is

possible only with the development of an

international consensus on the need to impose legal,

not just political, obligations to reduce the carbon

footprint.

However, the main thing for the implementation

of the Paris Agreement and other documents on

climate, which may be developed later, is the

emergence of fundamentally new energy

technologies that do not depend or are weakly

dependent on minerals. Existing energy technologies

either do not meet the requirements of carbon

neutrality, or have low productivity, or too high

energy costs. Therefore, it is critically important to

develop innovative ecosystems where basic energy

innovations can emerge.

5 CONCLUSIONS

The study showed that after the COVID-19

pandemic, during the period of global economic

recovery, the implementation of the Paris Agreement

will be very difficult. Analysis of the dynamics of

greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 compared to 2015

(to exclude the impact of the pandemic) showed that

not all countries of the world are committed to the

idea of implementing the Paris Agreement and

reducing the carbon footprint. The countries of the

European Union, as well as Japan, South Korea and

the United States have achieved significant

reductions in CO2 emissions.

However, these efforts have failed to offset the

rapid growth in carbon emissions in China, India,

some other developing countries, and even some

developed ones. The increase in greenhouse gas

emissions only in China was higher than their

decrease in the European Union. The growth rates of

emissions are highly differentiated across the

Problems of the Implementation of the Paris Agreements in the Post-pandemic Reality

107

countries of the world. Most of the countries in the

study have significantly reduced their emissions, but

the largest emitters of greenhouse gases have ignored

the requirements of the Paris Agreement. If this

situation continues after the COVID-19 pandemic,

humankind will not be able to move towards carbon

neutrality.

The study conducted a GAP analysis of the

transition to carbon neutrality, which identified four

main problems. First, sovereign states can ignore their

obligations, since the Paris Agreement does not

impose direct legal obligations. Secondly, the existing

carbon-free energy technologies have significant

economic or technical limitations.

Third, many developing countries lack the

motivation, resources and technology to work

towards reducing their carbon footprint. Fourth, the

most rational and effective directions for reducing

greenhouse gas emissions are not always chosen. To

overcome these problems and barriers to the

implementation of the Paris Agreement in a “post-

pandemic” world, it will be necessary to develop a

global consensus on international legal obligations to

reduce greenhouse gases, to provide resources and

competencies to less developed countries. However,

the main thing is to create conditions for the

emergence of fundamentally new carbon-free energy

technologies.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The research was conducted on the premises of the

Research Equipment Sharing Center of Kemerovo

State University, agreement No. 075-15-2021-694

dated August 5, 2021, between the Ministry of

Science and Higher Education of the Russian

Federation (Minobrnauka) and Kemerovo State

University (KemSU) (contract identifier RF----

2296.61321X0032).

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