Comparative Analysis of Crime Trends in Russia and Bulgaria

(2019-2021)

Anna Mantarova

and Elena Bagreeva

2,3 b

Institute of Philosophy and Sociology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Republic of Bulgaria

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

Moscow State Regional University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: Criminological Analysis, Crime, Comparative Analysis of Crime in Russia and Bulgaria, Pandemic.

Abstract: A comparative analysis of crime in Russia and Bulgaria in recent years was carried out in order to understand

the impact on criminological processes of the changed conditions of all spheres of our life in the situation of

the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The study uses the method of comparative analysis of statistical

information from official sources of the Russian Federation and Bulgaria for 2019-2021. As a result of the

conducted research, a significant change in the structure of crime in two countries was revealed: in general, a

decrease in some indicators and an increase in others. There has been a significant decrease in the first months

of a number of "street" types of crimes and an increase, first of all, in the indicators of cybercrime; the growth

of a number of crimes has become significant: fraud using IT technologies, domestic violence and theft. The

theoretical and practical significance of the study is to identify the impact of the social environment changed

as a result of the occurrence of extraordinary circumstances on crime. As well there is the need to study the

limit of the use of law enforcement agencies to ensure public order, the conditions for achieving balance and

maintaining the trust of citizens in curbing the growth of crime is justified. Analysis of crime statistics and

changes in the socio-economic sphere of Russia and Bulgaria for 2019-2021 allows us to formulate predictive

trends in crime changes in the near future.

1 INTRODUCTION

Crime as a phenomenon that accompanies the life of

society throughout the thousand-year history of

mankind stimulates scientists to analyze its

tendencies and identify the reasons for its

manifestation. Epochs changed, wars began and

stopped, political regimes changed, some countries

conquered others, economic crises and revolutions

unfolded and were overcome, and crime, like a

"tenacious virus", accompanies human life all this

time.

Such social processes as globalization,

multiculturalism (

Kucheryavaya et al., 2020)

, migration

(

Nitschke, 2019)

, pandemic Covid-19 and others set in

motion all spheres of human activity. Russia and

Bulgaria being the European countries are no

exception.

The nineties of the last century in Russia showed

an unprecedented surge in crime under the conditions

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9599-257Х

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1407-1574

of a changing social system, but same as in Bulgaria,

after several unprecedented leaps in the 90s, the crime

rate has stabilized.

During the past three years, life has presented the

whole world with another test - the coronavirus

pandemic, and criminologists, sociologists,

psychologists, political scientists and other scientists

are faced with the task of analyzing its social

consequences, including crime.

2 RESEARCH METHODS

Scientists of the two countries, using the comparative

method, analyzed the changes in the structure of

crime in Russia and Bulgaria over the past three years

in order to understand the impact of the spread of the

coronavirus pandemic on the state of crime, which

has changed the conditions of all spheres of life. The

156

Mantarova, A. and Bagreeva, E.

Comparative Analysis of Crime Trends in Russia and Bulgaria (2019-2021).

DOI: 10.5220/0011112300003439

In Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference "COVID-19: Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals" (RTCOV 2021), pages 156-165

ISBN: 978-989-758-617-0

use of a comparative method of analyzing statistical

information from official sources of the Russian

Federation and Bulgaria for 2019-2021 made it

possible to present a change in the structure of crime

(a decrease in some indicators and an increase in

others), identify trends and predict their development.

Analysis of the current state of crime in our countries

allows us to assert its theoretical and practical

significance in solving problems of identifying the

impact on crime of the social environment changed as

a result of emergencies, justifying the need to study

the reasons for the commission of criminal acts by

individual citizens in a situation of general danger.

3 RESULTS

Studying the official statistical "picture" of Russian

crime today (Brief, 2021), it should be noted positive

changes in the reduction of illegal acts in January-

July 2021. For example, the number of murders and

attempted murders decreased by 8.4%, intentional

infliction of serious harm to health – by 12.4%,

brigandages – by 19.5%, robberies - by 20.4%. Based

on these indicators alone, it can be concluded that the

atmosphere in the country is quite favorable and

controlled.

However, it is important to analyze the changed

structure of crime, and, therefore, to understand the

behavior of people who allowed themselves to

commit crimes in a situation of a coronavirus

pandemic that threatens citizens with mortal danger.

We will make sure that some citizens, such as doctors

and volunteers, joined the ranks of fighters against the

virus and its consequences, while others by their

actions aggravated the criminal, economic and

psychological instability of society. In the article we

will look at the crime trends of the last three years in

more detail.

In Bulgaria in the XX1 century, crime also

stabilized and, under the influence of a number of

socio-economic and demographic factors, began to

decline. After fluctuations during the economic crisis

of 2009 and the political instability of a slightly later

period, a few years later the downward trend was

consolidated (

Crime Trends, 2020).

If the number of crimes committed in 2016 in

Bulgaria is taken as 100%, then in 2020 they already

amount to 78.2%. Over the past few years, the decline

compared to the previous year was, respectively,

9.39% in 2018, 7.25% in 2019 and 9.59% in 2020.

Note that the level of registered crimes per hundred

thousand people is also decreasing.

Figure 1: The state of crime in the Russian Federation.

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157

Figure 2: The number of registered crimes in Bulgaria.

Figure 3: Registered crime rate in Bulgaria per 100,000 people.

A number of different factors determines the

downward trend in registered crime. Demographics

cannot be ignored either. True, based on Bulgarian

statistics, the indicator of registered crimes per one

hundred thousand people reflects a decrease in the

population (from 2016 to 2020 it decreased from

7101859 to 69165481, or by 185311 people). But

there is one very important fact - a very significant

decrease in the number of people in the age groups

whose criminal activity is highest

from 20 to 39 years. From 2016 to 2020, they

decreased by 186,806 - from 1810955 to 1624149

people (

National Statistic).

In Russia, on the contrary, in 2020 the number of

registered crimes is insignificant, but increased by

1.0% (

Crime in Russia, 2021). According to data

published by Rosstat, back in 2019, there were signs

of an increase in the crime rate after a rather long

period of decline that began in 2007. According to the

Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Prosecutor

General's Office of the Russian Federation, the

growth of general crime continued in 2020. However,

the number of crimes per 100 thousand people of the

permanent population in 2020 was 1,400 - and this is

the lowest figure compared to all previous years,

since 1991. In addition, the number of deaths as a

result of criminal assaults decreased by 5.4%

(

Ministry, 2021; Prosecutor, 2021).

The crime situation in 2020 in both Russia and

Bulgaria was influenced by situational factors - the

spread of COVID-19, measures introduced to limit it

and minimize the consequences: they have had a

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serious, albeit ambiguous, impact on the level and

structure of crime. Statistics of the Ministry of

Internal Affairs of Bulgaria allows you to track

changes in crime in 2019, 2020 and 2021 (

Ministry of

Internal Affairs)

If we look at the structure of crime, we will see

that the most significant decrease in relative

proportions is marked by crimes against citizens'

property, followed by particularly dangerous crimes.

There is a similar picture in Russia and Bulgaria,

characterized by a decrease in mortality rates as a

result of criminal acts. So, in 2020, 66 premeditated

murders were registered in Bulgaria, which is 17.5%

less than a year earlier. In Russia, per 100,000

permanent residents, the number of deaths as a result

of criminal assaults has decreased (from 54 in 2001)

to 15 in 2020. In Bulgaria, the number of rapes from

the category of crimes against the person has

significantly decreased - by 12.7% less.

In Russia, more than half of all registered crimes

are crimes against property, primarily theft of other

people's property and, first of all, theft. The theft rate

is quite high in the overall crime structure, despite the

fact that it decreased in 2020 to 36.7% (compared to

2002), and in January-July of the current 2021 it

decreased by another 19.5% compared to last year. In

addition, robberies have steadily declined in recent

years, dropping to 1.9% in 2020.

Figure 4: Crimes against the person in Bulgaria.

Figure 5: Crimes against property in Bulgaria.

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Figure 6: Registered robberies in Bulgaria.

In Bulgaria, crimes against property have also

decreased markedly in recent years: in 2020, 33,649

(41,024 for 2019) were recorded, or 18% less. 1002

robberies were registered (1183 for 2019), which is

15.3% less.

Among crimes against property in Bulgaria, the

largest share is theft - 80.3%. 27,036 such crimes

were registered (33,172 for 2019), or 18.5% less. The

bulk of the thefts are committed by burglary. In 2020,

5,344 cases were registered, which is 14.2% less than

in 2019. There is a positive trend in thefts of housing

- a decrease of 15.2% compared to 2019.

There is an obvious difference in the monthly

statistics: in contrast to 2019, when there was an

increase in thefts in March and April, whereas in

2020, a sharp decline in indicators was recorded in the

same months.

As for this type of crime as fraud, the picture in

the two countries is exactly the opposite: if in Russia

the share of registered fraud cases is steadily growing

in the total number of crimes, which increased from

3.2% in 1997 to 16.4% in 2020, then in Bulgaria there

was a decrease of 34.6% in fraud. Moreover, the

number of telephone frauds also decreased by 77%,

129 were registered (561 in 2019), which is 432 less.

Unfortunately, in Russia, these figures have

slightly increased: in January - August 2021, more

than a third (40.2%) of the crimes committed using

information and telecommunications technologies

accounted for crimes using mobile communications

(144.4 thousand; +6.4%).

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Figure 7: Registered thefts in Bulgaria.

Figure 8: Theft of motor vehicles in Bulgaria.

Moreover, crimes committed using information

and telecommunication technologies or in the field of

computer information were registered by 12.7% more

than in the same period last year: their share increased

from 23.3% in January - August 2020 to 26.5%.

In Russia, in January-July of the current 2021, the

number of vehicle thefts decreased markedly – by

27.4% and thefts - by 16.3%. The number of car thefts

in Bulgaria is 1,582 (1,641 were registered in 2019),

which is 3.6% less.

In Bulgaria, drug-related crime decreased by 28.2%

compared to 2019.

The criminological picture in Russia is also

encouraging, but not so impressive indicators. So, in

January - August 2021, 123.4 thousand crimes related

to drug trafficking were detected, which is 4.1% less

than in the same period last year. In addition, every

tenth (10.6%) crime, using information and

telecommunication technologies or in the field of

computer information, was committed for the purpose

of illegal production, sale or shipment of narcotic

drugs: 37.9 thousand (+47.5%).

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Figure 9: Drug-related crimes in Bulgaria.

Hooliganism has sharply decreased in Bulgaria -

by 65.8%. Russia can also be proud of the decrease in

the level of street crime: in parks, squares and on the

streets, the number of robberies has significantly

decreased.

4 DISCUSSION

Undoubtedly, the restrictive measures introduced and

the increased police presence have had a significant

impact on crime, especially on certain types of

crimes. In general, we can say that during 2019-2021,

a decrease in both ordinary and organized crime is

recorded. Along with this, there has been a shift in

criminal activity in cyberspace - fraud, extortion, theft

of personal and bank data, fraud and speculation in

the prices of medicines and protective equipment, etc.

If we take a closer look at the statistics of the

Ministry of Internal Affairs of Bulgaria for individual

months and link them to the presence and type of

restrictive measures, we will see a decrease in March

- May 2020. compared to the same period in 2019, it

is 13.72%, and in the second period with the

strengthening of restrictive measures - November and

December, the decrease is even greater - by 18.48%.

And vice versa - for the "free", so to speak, months -

January, February, June, July, August, September,

October 2020 - the decrease is only 4.77%, i.e. half of

the total annual figure in recent years.

Among crimes against property in Russia and

Bulgaria, the largest share falls on theft: these

indicators are still high, but statistics indicate some

positive downward trend. It should be noted that since

2018, there has been an increase in thefts in Bulgaria

only by persons in case of recidivism: this fact

indicates problems in the judicial system and with

solving the problems of their re-socialization in an

open society.

Despite a noticeable decrease in thefts in Bulgaria

over the past year, this type of crime occupies a large

share in the overall crime picture of the country, far

exceeding the Russian indicators for this type.

Perhaps the reason for such a high percentage in

Bulgaria is low control and insufficient equipment

with technical means (surveillance cameras) of the

housing stock. And the significant improvement in

the situation should be explained by the restrictive

measures taken in connection with coronavirus

infection, the improvement of the work of law

enforcement agencies around the world (

Kugler et al.,

2021). The pandemic has created new challenges and

problems in the field of cybercrime with the

"possibility" of theft of personal and banking

information, fraud and smuggling. There is an

increase in crime in the online space, social networks

and "darknet". The demand and shortage of certain

goods, especially medical devices and equipment, has

led to an increase in the trade in counterfeit goods and

fraud.

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- - - 2009 — 2020

Figure 10: The number of registered crimes in Bulgaria.

Figure 11: Detained at the entrance and exit through the state border and detected in illegal stay in the country.

The most common forms of computer crimes

remain financial crimes and illegal content on the

Internet. During the year, numerous preliminary

checks of cyberattack signals were carried out in

Bulgaria, during which Internet banking accounts

were hacked. Every month, both in Bulgaria and in

Russia, Facebook, Google, Twitter, non-

governmental organizations and other organizations

receive signals related to the distribution by

consumers of materials representing the sexual

exploitation of children on the Internet. In this regard,

for example, an interdepartmental working group was

established in Bulgaria to prepare a draft update of the

National Cybersecurity Strategy "Cyber Sustainable

Bulgaria 2020"(

An interdepartmental, 2020

International cooperation of specialists from

different countries will allow to resist a number of

crimes using the Internet space.

The picture of illegal crossing of the state border

is dynamic. During the first wave of the pandemic,

the number of illegal border crossings decreased

significantly. Bulgarian statistics on detainees

entering and leaving the state border and the detection

of illegal stay in the country in April showed the

minimum number of registered violations. In May

2020, in contrast to 2019, when there is a sharp

increase, the absolute values achieved are much

lower. On the other hand, in contrast to the June

decline in the previous two years due to the easing of

restrictive measures, their growth was observed in

2020.

These offenses are fully conditioned by many

objective and subjective political and organizational

factors, processes (

Bagreeva and Mottaeva

). It is

noteworthy that after a noticeable decline that

occurred with the outbreak of the coronavirus

epidemic in Europe, in May 2020, the influx of

migrants to the EU increased again, and sharply. In

May, the European border service Frontex registered

almost 4,300 cases of unregulated crossing of EU

borders on the main migration routes - almost three

times more than in April, the Funke group reported

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on June 14, citing statistics (Markov, 2021).However,

statistics show that migrants arriving in Bulgaria were

increasingly trying to leave the country quickly. Even

more significant growth was recorded in 2021. The

total number of detainees by August 31 amounted to

4,934 people (compared to 1,378 in the same period

in 2020), respectively 765 at the entrance through the

state border (249 in 2020) and 651 at the exit (461 in

2020).

5 CONCLUSIONS

The state and structure of crime in Russia and

Bulgaria over the past three years has been influenced

by a wide range of specific social facts and processes.

Some of them had a positive effect, limiting the

possibility of committing certain crimes, for example,

home thefts, acts of physical violence, especially as a

result of conflict situations, etc.

But at the same time, there were factors that have

a certain criminogenic effect: for example, crimes

committed using information and telecommunication

technologies or in the field of computer information.

New opportunities have predetermined the increased

interest of cybercriminals in the relevant platforms.

Digitalization has significantly expanded the

"criminal field" and changed the structure of crime in

general.

Prolonged suspension of classes and the lack of

opportunities for students and students to continue

normal life activities (for example, sports, fitness,

etc.) also had some criminogenic effect. With such a

long period of inactivity, it became possible to fill

your free time with other activities, including

telephone fraud, search and drug use. With the

increasing use of the Internet, their vulnerability and

the risk of becoming victims of cybercrime have also

increased.

In Bulgaria, the return from abroad of a huge

number of Bulgarian citizens, some of whom were

involved in illegal and criminal activities abroad

(pickpockets, prostitutes, pimps, beggars, organizers

of human trafficking, drug dealers, etc.) added work

to law enforcement agencies. This situation carries

the risk of their continuing criminal activity in the

country and creates a situation with criminogenic

potential at different times.

The growth of domestic violence in our countries

is caused by a sudden change in the way of life, based

on the well-known dependence "frustration -

aggression". Stress, from fear, anxiety, insecurity,

isolation, provokes aggression, which during stay in

homes is very often directed at those who are there,

and this determines

Expectations regarding the future dynamics of

crime are formed on the basis of an analysis of the

changes in the social environment that have occurred

and are expected in the near future and the

criminogenic effects already established for them.

Poverty carries a special risk, which is even more

likely in the coming months, taking into account the

growth of inflation. The impact of poverty on the

level of property crimes is well known. The

psychological consequences of the crisis caused by

the coronavirus will be heard for a long time. Stress

itself reduces the threshold of irritability and reaction

- it is easier to provoke aggression and violence in

their various forms. And from the literature and in

practice, the relationship "frustration – aggression" is

well known, and this carries the risk of an increase in

the number of crimes against the individual.

However, the most serious challenges facing

society are related to cybercrime. Criminal groups

have already managed to reformat their activities,

actively using information and communication

technologies, involving more and more new people

experiencing various kinds of problems with

earnings. The boundlessness of the Internet and the

use of its capabilities creates an environment for the

commission of transnational, cross-border crimes that

do not exclude the involvement of minors.

During the state of emergency, e-commerce and

electronic payments increased dramatically. Habits of

extensive use of the Internet for purchases and

services purchased during quarantine are likely to

persist. In addition, more importantly, an increasing

number of representatives of the so-called

"generation Z" are entering an active life - "those born

after 2000 are called digital children. The technology

is innate to the representatives of Generation Z,

because they have not witnessed the changes with the

advent of the Internet and these innovations, but were

born in this environment...’

On the one hand, it is necessary to oppose

cybercriminals with measures to increase the level of

legal culture of citizens on the use of innovative

digital technologies and ways of its legal regulation

(

Bagreeva et al., 2020). On the other hand, improving

the activities of law enforcement agencies in both

Russia and Bulgaria by expanding the staff in this

area, increasing their professionalism.

There are also all the prerequisites for the growth

of the hidden economy. In addition to the desire of the

self-employed and employers to save on taxes, social

security and other payments, during a crisis,

criticality always decreases and tolerance increases

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on the part of both the employed and society as a

whole.

Another expected consequence is the growth of

trade in low-quality products and imitation of branded

goods. On the one hand, it is obvious today that there

is a decrease in the purchasing power of citizens and

the need for cheaper products, low quality goods and

services. On the other hand, small enterprises that are

experiencing an especially acute economic crisis are

ready for any "manifestations of tolerance". This

gives reason to expect an increase in smuggling in the

near and medium term.

In order to keep the business and not be involved

in criminal activity, many small and medium-sized

businesses have either already been reformatted or are

in the process of transforming their activities. The

Russian leadership sought various ways and forms of

support for small and medium-sized businesses: from

insurance payments to targeted assistance (

Shelemekh

et al., 2021

). Russian scientists have developed a

classification matrix of sources of new knowledge as

a tool for planning innovative activities of the

company, the application of which will improve the

work of enterprises taking into account new realities

(Khoroshavina et al., 2018).

Especially for Bulgaria, we can expect a

continuation and even an increase in the flow of

people illegally crossing the state border. The

palpable economic crisis in a number of countries has

prompted many people to migrate in search of a better

life to richer countries. In addition, socio-political

reasons in Afghanistan have become a serious source

of migration flows.

So, analyzing the situation with the pandemic and

the criminogenic picture in our countries in 2019-

2021, we note its stages, its motley nature and the

change of vectors of statistics of individual forms and

types of crimes. Strict restrictions on self-isolation,

the closure of borders, enterprises, industries have

had an extremely negative impact on the economy of

our countries, which has led to socio-economic,

socio-cultural and socio-psychological causes of

crime.

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