Deformation of Social Constraints in the Context of the Coronavirus

Crisis on the Example of Industrial Regions

Sergey Gordeev

, Sergey Zyryanov

and Daria Averyanova

Chelyabinsk branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration,

Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

Keywords: Social Space, Region, Social Limitations, Analysis, Visualization, Covid 19, Crisis.

Abstract: The consequences of the covid-19 coronavirus crisis, in many cases, become decisive for adjusting the

prospects for socio-economic development. The social limitations of the coronavirus crisis in terms of

efficiency differ significantly by region. Regional differences predetermine many prerequisites for incomplete

or ineffective fulfillment of part of social restrictions, their deformation. The main points of the study are

devoted to two directions of analysis of deformations and loss of performance of social constraints in

lockdown. The first is to analyze the influence of the region's employment structure on lockdown restrictions.

The second is to analyze the influence of the regional specifics of the social space on the effectiveness of the

lockdown. Within the framework of the analysis, a number of problematic issues of the methodology for

analyzing unstable processes and assessing the comparative effectiveness of "hard" social restrictions

(lockdown) are considered on the example of large industrial regions of the Urals. The study is aimed at

adapting the practice of solving the problems of coronary crisis to regional conditions.

1 INTRODUCTION

The patterns of the spread of covid-19 across

territories inevitably differ. Numerous social features

are characteristic of most regions and countries. The

totality of factors that determine the intensity of

contacts on the territory is reflected in the specifics of

the social space.

Obviously, the spatial distribution of covid-19

differs markedly across territories (Kashnitsky,

2020), and the social factors determining the spread

of the pandemic are diverse (the medical and

epidemiological aspects of the pandemic are

extraterritorial and largely uniform). Social factors

include: the size and density of the population, the

degree of isolation of territories and social groups, the

intensity of interregional and international

communications, population mobility and migration

processes, the economic specialization of the territory

and the structure of employment, cultural traditions,

lifestyle and communication, the organization of

public spaces and much more.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8458-2161

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4879-2081

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0137-8780

The social aspect of the coronavirus crisis requires

separate consideration. The variety and difference of

social factors cause significant differences in the

dynamics of the spread of corona crisis across

territories. The range of various restrictive measures

during the coronavirus crisis is also very wide: from

recommendations on keeping a distance in public

places to “hard” forms of lockdown. The social space

for each territory is unique. Its specificity

significantly affects the effectiveness of restrictive

measures. It is obvious that the use of general

template measures without taking into account the

specifics of the social space will give a significant

difference in the results across territories.

Further, the results of the analysis of the specifics

of regional socio-economic processes in the context

of corona crisis are considered. The features of the

development of social processes of corona crisis in

the context of a lockdown are further considered on

the example of the leading regions of Russia with a

high concentration of the urban population.

Gordeev, S., Zyryanov, S. and Averyanova, D.

Deformation of Social Constraints in the Context of the Coronavirus Crisis on the Example of Industrial Regions.

DOI: 10.5220/0011120500003439

In Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference "COVID-19: Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals" (RTCOV 2021), pages 351-356

ISBN: 978-989-758-617-0

351

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The unpredictable dynamism of the crown crisis

significantly complicates the formalization of various

socio-economic processes. The crisis aspect of a

pandemic, with obvious unpredictability, is becoming

a classic version of the “black swan” (Taleb, 2010).

In such conditions, the construction of a single

universal holistic model of the transformation of

social space is practically unrealistic. In these cases,

it is more expedient to consider the system of local

models of the most significant processes. It is also

necessary to update a number of methodological

foundations of the system analysis of the

development of regional social processes.

Studies of the dynamics of the coronavirus crisis

made it possible to determine a number of

methodological provisions for the regional adaptation

of general measures to combat the coronavirus crisis

(Gordeev, 2020). Variability and limited

formalization make classical approaches of systems

analysis hardly applicable in the context of

coronavirus crisis. The adaptation of the

methodological foundations of systems analysis to

consider complex, dynamic, changeable systems

becomes interdisciplinary. Research in such

conditions is inevitably associated with “soft systems

methodology” (Checkland, 2000). The adaptability of

this methodology makes it possible to introduce

refinements directly into the process of research and

search for solutions.

A special place here is occupied by specialized

information-adapted approaches related to the

visualization and analysis of combined graphical and

digital information (Neytan, 2013; Gray, 2020). Such

adapted approaches provide a combination of

heuristic methods of analysis, the study of graphics

and the formalized mathematical apparatus of

assessments. The advantages of such approaches in

the study of complex processes of spatial

transformations are obvious (Gordeev, 2021).

In studies of social processes in corona crisis, a

special place is occupied by the problem of their

dependence on the trajectory of previous

development (known as "Path Dependence") (Auzan,

2015). The range of issues considered within the

framework of Path Dependence is extremely diverse

(Rastvortseva, 2018). These include the presence of

many sociocultural traditions that determine the

intensity of contacts between people (large number of

families, traditions of communication between

relatives, frequency and scale of feasts, etc.).

“Path Dependence” also includes some

management specific issues (for example, when the

severity of the declared measures is discounted by the

non-obligation of their implementation).

Deformation, as an unpredictable change in social

constraints, in this case is one of the forms of

transformation of the regional social space. The study

of such a dynamic situation is associated with the

analysis of "short" trajectories and change points of

trends in unstable socio-economic dynamics.

The considered areas of research are related to the

analysis of the transformation of the regional social

space corona crisis. Further, regional features are

considered that are of particular importance in the

coronavirus crisis. The first features are determined

by the structure of employment in the region. Other

features are reflected in the inherited stereotypes of

society's behavior, which significantly change the

effectiveness of the effectiveness of social restrictions

in the event of a lockdown. Updating the

methodology and analysis tools open up new

opportunities in the study of regional characteristics,

which are essential for the deformation of social

constraints into lockdown.

3 DISCUSSION

The regional structure of employment and the spatial

system of settlement with the traditions of society

largely determine the deformation and effectiveness

of social restrictions.

3.1 The Influence of the Industry

Structure of Employment on the

Effectiveness of Social Constraints

The possibilities of introducing and the effectiveness

of social restrictions by territories are largely limited

by the s structure of employment. The effectiveness

of any social restrictions is determined by the degree

of coverage of the population of the territory.

However, to ensure life, it is necessary to continue the

work of a number of infrastructure areas and a

number of enterprises and organizations of a

continuous cycle (hereinafter also referred to as life

support). The existence of the sphere of life support

inevitably presupposes a significant number of

residents "falling out" of isolation at any lockdown.

It is obvious that a large number of workers in the

field of life support, their uneven distribution creates

the preconditions for the concentration of people at

certain production and social facilities, which

inevitably reduces the effectiveness of social

restrictions. The number of workers in the field of life

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support is determined by the socio-economic

specifics and can vary significantly across territories.

Taking into account the factor of the working

population excluded from isolation is an important

element of organizing social restrictions and spatial

transformations.

The structure of s employment varies

significantly across regions. The employment

structure of the city of Moscow, as an informal leader

in initiating social restrictions and administrative

reforms in Russia, differs markedly from a similar

structure in other regions. These regions include the

Chelyabinsk Region, one of the leading industrial

territories of the Urals.

Figure 1: Distribution of the number of employees by

industry, in Moscow and the Chelyabinsk region (% of total

employment).

In the diagrams of the structure of employment

(Figure 1), the shares of workers by industry are

ranked according to three categories of importance

for livelihoods (from the largest with dark red

shading, to the least with light blue shading).

Obviously, the presented structures of the number of

employed in the city of Moscow and the Chelyabinsk

region differ significantly. (See Rosstat RF. Regions

of Russia. URL: https://https://rosstat.gov.ru/

folder/210/document/13205). These differences

reflect a significant difference in the proportion of

life-support workers falling out of isolation.

3.2 Influence of the Specifics of Social

Space on the Effectiveness of

Lockdown Restrictions

Figure 2: Dynamics of weekly increase in detected

infections (people) and approximation of a nonlinear trend,

Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk regions.

The effectiveness of various social restrictions (from

the simplest to a complete lockdown) can vary

significantly due to the characteristics of the reaction

of society. For the effectiveness of social restrictions,

the specificity of social space is of particular

importance, which is associated with the possibility

of reducing the number of contacts between people

with the threat of infection. This possibility depends

on many factors of previous development. Among

them are difficult to assess: the nature of social

communications, features of the psychology of social

behavior, etc.

Deformation of Social Constraints in the Context of the Coronavirus Crisis on the Example of Industrial Regions

353

Figure 3: Dynamics of weekly increase in detected

infections (people) and approximation of a nonlinear trend,

Russia.

Figure 4: Dynamics of weekly increase in detected

infections (people) and approximation of a nonlinear trend,

St. Petersburg.

Regional specificity inevitably affects the

dynamics of morbidity after the introduction of social

restrictions. A similar situation is shown by the results

of the analysis of the dynamics of the number of

infections in the regions of Russia after the

introduction of the lockdown in early April 2020

(Gordeev, 2020). The analysis was based on

information from official reporting materials. These

are data on monitoring the current situation in the

regions of the Communication Center of the

Government of the Russian Federation on the

situation with coronavirus (by the number of detected

infections, weekly). The initial initial period of 2020,

when all cases of disease were detected, can be

considered representative. The impact of systematic

reporting errors and misstatements, the traditional

factor of "crafty figure" (Khanin 2018) in this case is

minimal.

Analysis of the dynamics of the number of infected in

the regions of Russia during the period of the first

lockdown - "isolation" (April - May 2020) shows that

the specificity of the social space of the territories

significantly changes the dynamics of the spread of

coronavirus. This explains the relatively low

effectiveness of social restrictions in the most

“severe” lockdown scenarios in some territories. Such

territories include the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk

regions. Strict restrictions (the right to leave the place

of residence only for a specific list of essential

reasons) in these regions did not ensure a quick

change in the situation.

In Figure 2. The general characteristics of the

dynamics of the detected infections in the Sverdlovsk

and Chelyabinsk regions (in the conditions of

"severe" social restrictions) are presented. Including:

 weekly increase in detected infections (people);

 nonlinear trend of the weekly increase in the

number of infections (marked with a solid line)

with an estimate of the approximation accuracy

The presented dynamics reflects only a slight

slowdown in growth towards the end of the period

under review in the Chelyabinsk region. The

dynamics of the Sverdlovsk region is even worse. It

is noticeably inferior to the dynamics in Russia

(Figure 3) where a reversal to a decline is noticeable

in the trajectory. The dynamics of St. Petersburg

looks even more preferable (Figure 4). Although in

this region there was a "milder" lockdown regime.

Strict restrictions were introduced only for certain

risk groups (age groups, those with chronic diseases,

etc.).

Obviously, with the introduction of severe

lockdown restrictions in a number of regions, the

deformation of the social space will be significant.

Inevitably, places of disproportionately high

(excessive) concentration of people in the social

space and “risk groups” of people who have visited

such places of congestion are formed. As a result, the

minimization of the number of contacts is not ensured

and the goal of quickly changing the situation is not

achieved. At the same time, the negative

consequences of social restrictions are significant.

Accurate numerical estimates of direct and

indirect damage to the consequences of irrationally

“hard” restrictions are practically indefinable.

However, they are reflected indirectly in the change

in the quality of life. The results of a sociological

survey of the Chelyabinsk branch of the RANEPA

(Figure 5) indicate a noticeable deterioration in the

quality of life of almost half of the population of the

Chelyabinsk region even before the expiration of the

lockdown from April to May 2020.

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Figure 5: The results of the answer to the question "How

has your financial situation changed over the two"

quarantine "months?", residents of the Chelyabinsk region

in May 2020.

4 CONCLUSIONS

In the general case, social restrictions, other things

being equal, should contribute to a significant

improvement in the situation with the spread of the

disease. However, the real picture in the regions may

be different.

When social restrictions are introduced, in a

number of cases, problems of significant deformation

(unpredictable and “undesirable” transformation) of

social space inevitably arise. The following are

observed: a temporary excessive concentration of

people in certain places, an uneven redistribution of

the load in the sphere of life support, an uneven

contraction of markets and a temporary "shortage" of

goods and services, as well as many other negative

consequences.

The inertia of previous development ("Path

Dependence") is inevitably reflected in the

implementation of many social constraints. Inherited

livelihood traditions, combined with different local

characteristics, can significantly alter the

performance of many social constraints. In some

cases, the consequences of large-scale unbalanced,

irrational social constraints only contribute to the

spread of infection.

The problems of formally imposed restrictions

and managerial stereotypes are especially

problematic in the context of “hard” lockdown

restrictions and uncontrolled deformation of the

social space. In contrast, regions with milder

restrictions have greater opportunities for socio-

economic spatial transformations and significantly

lower losses for the quality of life.

The studies carried out make it possible to form

the basis for considering many interdisciplinary

issues related to socio-economic development in the

context of the coronavirus crisis. A separate place is

occupied by further studies of the previously raised

issues. the relationship between social constraints and

spatial transformations.

In the context of local specifics, adaptable

regional practices and approaches to solving the

problems of coronavirus crisis will be more effective

than standard ones. In the existing conditions of

heterogeneity and low predictability of many socio-

economic processes, new problems of “post-

coronavirus reality” are inevitable. They are

superimposed on previous problems of socio-

economic development (problems of low growth of

the “new normal” (Silin 2016)).

When “new waves” of a pandemic emerge, the

presented research results create the basis for more

correct assessments in the preparation of management

decisions. They help to minimize socio-economic

losses and create prerequisites for the growth of the

effectiveness of social constraints. The way out of the

coronavirus crisis will be more effective with a

differentiated approach, both at the regional and

municipal levels.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This article was prepared with the financial support

of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant

RFBR 19-010-00964 "Modelling and visualization of

spatial development scenarios of cross-border macro-

region by the example of the Urals and the Northern

Kazakhstan".

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