Simulation of Regional Development of Bioeconomy under

Slowbalization

Iluta Arbidane

, Hanna Purii

, Alla Dvigun

, Mansur Mamanazarov

and Oleg Padalka

Rezekne Academy of Technologies, 115 Atbrivosanas aleja, Rezekne, LV-4601, Latvia

State University of Economics and Technology, 16 Medychna Str., Kryvyi Rih, 50005, Ukraine

National Institute for Strategic Studies, 7-A Pyrohova Str., Kyiv, 01030, Ukraine

National University of named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Tashkent, 100060, Uzbekistan

National Pedagogical Dragomanov University, 9 Pyrohova Str., Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine

Keywords: Stratification, Regional Economic Systems, Slowbalization, Regional Greening Programmes, Greening Trend

of the Economic Development, Environmental Performance Index, Changes in The GDP Growth, Regional

Development Simulation, Environmental Innovation, Bioeconomy Development.

Abstract: The article studies preconditions for stratification of regional economic systems. The study shows that

development of greening processes is becoming much more complicated due to slowbalization of regional

economies and the COVID-19 pandemic. It substantiates the need to coordinate regions’ greening

programmes with development of their economic systems and strategies stimulating bioeconomy to recover

economies and achieve results of greening in the context of slowbalization. The article considers ongoing

processes of protectionism of national economies at the regional level under slowbalization. It analyzes the

world’s real GDP by regions as an indicator of economic systems’ activity. The authors give prospective

assessment of development scenarios for economies of emerging markets and developing countries. It

substantiates main tasks of bioeconomy development, implementation of which will ensure the economic

growth required for the effective use of the biological system with minimal harm to the environment and, in

general, harmonize the socioeconomic development.

1 INTRODUCTION

Over the past decades, extensive greening has been

taking place in many European countries. At present,

research centres are being established, scientific and

technical programmes to support environmental

innovative technologies are being organized.

Sustainability issues are slowly but surely embracing

the global community. The main research fields are

global warming and alternative energy sources as a

precondition of future survival and safety of the world

population.

For example, Norway aims to be a country with

virtually zero industrial CO

emissions by 2030.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9762-3874

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4226-4445

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0168-8682

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3936-0954

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5846-4826

Germany is going to switch to 100% alternative

energy sources by 2040, while Sweden wants to make

the majority of houses fuel-free as early as in 2020

(Kharin and Purii, 2020). The Icelandic government

actively promotes the use of green technologies (The

Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy,

2019). To explain why this movement is intensifying,

it should be marked that enhancement of

environmental legislation and state subsidies play an

important role.

However, the total greening rate at the regional

level has bigger differences. It is obvious that highly

developed regions have greater opportunities for

investing in resource conservation and reducing the

Arbidane, I., Purii, H., Dvigun, A., Mamanazarov, M. and Padalka, O.

Simulation of Regional Development of Bioeconomy under Slowbalization.

DOI: 10.5220/0011341900003350

In Proceedings of the 5th International Scientiﬁc Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence (ISC SAI 2022) - Sustainable Development and Global Climate Change, pages 85-92

ISBN: 978-989-758-600-2

destructive impact on the environment. Concurrently,

their negative impact on the world environment is

growing with the development of industry.

Meanwhile, underdeveloped regions have a sufficient

level of environmental safety due to low rates of

environmental destruction explained by low rates of

industrial development in these regions. At the same

time, the level of implementation of environmental

innovations in these systems remains low.

Development of greening processes is becoming

much more complicated due to slowbalization of

regional economies and the COVID-19 pandemic. In

2020, the global pandemic and corresponding

restrictive measures led to the worst economic crisis

since the World War II. It mainly impacted the

service sector, transport and carbon-intensive power

generation. Installation of new capacities for wind

and solar panels had higher growth rates during the

crisis, which are expected to maintain the same high

level in future (Arbidane et al., 2021).

However, in 2021, good economic recovery is

expected in the G20 countries, judging by the first

few months, as their GDP will surpass the 2019 value.

In 2020, energy consumption retarded sharply, with

the exception of China, but this was only a cyclical

drop as in 2021 energy consumption will return to the

level of 2019 (International Energy Agency, 2021).

Therefore, there is a need to coordinate regional

greening programmes with the development rate of

their economic systems and design of strategies that

promote bioeconomy to recover economic systems

and achieve goals of greening in the context of

slowbalization.

The research aims to study correlation between

changes in the environmental performance index

(EPI) values and changes in the GDP growth in

developing regions of Europe and substantiate the

need to introduce basic principles of bioeconomy

development for the effective use of the biological

system with minimal harm to the environment.

Research methods. During the research, methods

of analysis and synthesis are used. The study is based

on official data from key world energy statistics,

world economic statistics and Internet resources.

2 RESULTS

In the last decade, the world economy is transiting

from total globalization to more restrained slow

stabilization. Escalating tension between nationalism

and globalization is going to become one of the most

determinant into the next decade. Protectionism of

national economies at the regional level will be the

key to further development in the context of

slowbalization.

Current processes of slowbalization can

strengthen regional ties within economic systems.

However, regional de-globalization provokes new

challenging conditions for development. For

instance, between 1990 and 2010, most rapidly

developing countries were able to partially bridge the

gap between themselves and developed countries,

which allowed them to compete on global markets.

Although in the context of regional slowbalization, it

will be even more difficult to bridge the gap between

developing and developed regions. After all,

developed regions will be able to make a rapid leap in

their development due to high initial potential. At the

same time, weak economic systems without such a

foundation will depend on developed systems.

Thus, slowbalization will not solve the problems

created by globalization, but will only cause even

greater stratification of economic systems.

Rapid development of regional slowbalization

during the coronavirus crisis has caused a slump in

the GDP of many countries (Table 1) (The World

Bank, June, 2021a).

Table 1: Real GDP in the world regions as compared to the

previous year, %.

Region 2017y 2018y 2019y 2020y

Worl

3.3 3.2 2.5 -3.5

Developed

economies

2.5 2.3 1.6 -4.7

Emerging

markets and

developing

countries

4.5 4.6 3.8 -1.7

Eastern Asia and

the Pacific re

ion

6.5 6.5 5.8 1.2

Europe and

Central Asia

4.1 3.5 2.7 -2.1

Latin America

and the

Caribbean re

ion

1.9 1.8 0.9 -6.5

Near East and

Northern Africa

1.1 0.6 0.6 -3.9

South Asia 6.5 6.4 4.4 -5.4

Africa to the

south of the

Sahara desert

2.6 2.7 2.5 -2.4

The global economy is expected to increase by

5.6% in 2021, this fact indicating the fastest recovery

rate after the decline for the past 80 years. This

recovery is uneven and largely driven by an increase

in economic activity in some large countries. In many

emerging markets and developing countries, barriers

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

to vaccination continue to hamper their economic

activity.

About two-thirds of these economies will not be

able to compensate for the decline in per capita

income by 2022. At the global level, there is a

predominance of a negative development risk.

Possible new waves of COVID-19 and financial

shocks against the background of a high debt level of

developing countries are some of risk factors here.

Policymakers will have to balance the need to foster

economic recovery and maintain price and fiscal

stability, as well as making further efforts to

implement reforms that boost the economic growth.

Now, to overcome stagnation and stratification in

European countries is an urgent problem. Central

Europe is expected to increase its economy by 4.6%

between 2021 and 2022, which is supported by

restored trade. Exceptional stimulus policies are

expected to continue throughout 2021. It is also

expected to prolong the EU-provided large-scale

finance packages intended for the EU Member States

to compensate for the investment gap (The World

Bank, June, 2021b).

In general, the economic growth is expected to

stabilize at the level of 3.9% in 2022. However, the

GDP per capita is forecast to be 5.3% lower as

compared to expectations at the start of the pandemic

(The World Bank, June, 2021b).

At the same time, in recent years, the trend of

“greening” economic development can be observed

in all the regions, yet, the rate and scale of

transformations are far from the desired level.

The pandemic and the economic crisis have

impacted almost every aspect of energy production,

supply and consumption around the world. The

pandemic set energy and emissions trends in 2020

reducing fossil fuel consumption for most of the year,

while renewables and electric cars, two of the main

building blocks of clean energy transition, were

largely insensitive.

According to the latest statistics, since primary

energy demand fell by almost 4% in 2020, global

energy-related CO

emissions reduced by 5.8%,

which had been the largest annual percentage decline

since the World War II. In absolute terms, a reduction

in CO

emissions of almost 2.000m t is unprecedented

as, broadly speaking, it is compared to removing all

European Union emissions from the global total.

Fossil fuel demand hit the hardest in 2020, especially

oil, which fell by 8.6%, and the coal industry, which

reduced by 4%. The annual decline in oil was the

largest ever accounting for more than half of

reduction in global emissions. Global emissions from

oil use fell by more than 1.100m t of CO

, down from

about 11.400m t in 2019 (International Energy

Agency, 2021).

These factors have influenced ranking values and

dynamics of the most environmentally friendly

countries in the world. The Environmental

Performance Study measures a country’s

achievements in terms of the environment state and

natural resource management based on 22 indicators

in 10 categories that reflect various aspects of the

natural environment and viability of its

environmental systems; conservation of biological

diversity, counteraction to climate change, the state of

people’s health, economic activity and its load on the

environment, as well as effectiveness of the state

policy in the field of environment protection

(Table 2) (Wendling, et al., 2020; Hsu, et al., 2014;

Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2016;

Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2018).

Table 2: EPI ranking: European countries (2014y – 2020y).

Country EPI

2014

2016

2018

2020

France 71.05 88.20 83.95 80.00

Denmar

76.92 89.21 81.60 82.50

Malta 67.42 88.48 80.90 70.70

Sweden 78.09 90.43 80.51 78.70

Luxembur

83.29 86.58 79.12 82.30

Austria 78.32 86.64 78.97 79.60

Irelan

74.67 86.60 78.77 72.80

Finlan

75.72 90.68 78.64 78.90

ain 79.79 88.91 78.39 74.30

German

80.47 84.26 78.37 77.20

Bel

66.61 80.15 77.38 73.30

Ital

74.36 84.48 76.96 73.00

The Netherlands 77.75 82.03 75.46 75.30

Greece 73.28 85.81 73.60 69.10

rus 66.23 80.24 72.60 64.80

Portu

al 75.80 88.63 71.91 67.00

Slovakia 74.45 85.42 70.60 68.30

Lithuania 61.26 85.49 69.33 62.90

Bulgaria 64.01 83.40 67.85 57.00

the Czech Re

. 81.47 84.67 67.68 71.00

Slovenia 76.43 88.98 67.57 72.00

Latvia 64.05 85.71 66.12 61.60

Croatia 62.23 86.98 65.45 63.10

Hungary 70.28 84.60 65.01 63.70

Rumania 50.52 83.24 64.78 64.70

Estonia 74.66 88. 59 64.31 65.30

Polan

69.23 81.26 64.11 60.90

Ukraine 49.01 79.69 52.87 49.50

Meanwhile, low-carbon fuels and technologies, in

particular solar photovoltaic and wind energy, have

reached the highest annual share in the global energy

balance in history, increasing it by more than one

Simulation of Regional Development of Bioeconomy under Slowbalization

percentage point and exceeding 20% (International

Energy Agency, 2021).

In 2020, energy-related CO

emissions reduced

dramatically. One of the main reasons for that was a

strong impact of the pandemic on the transport sector

and the decline in fossil fuel power production. Yet,

in the future, a jump is expected with energy intensity

returning to its historical trends.

In particular, scientists predict recovery of the

coal industry that in 2021-2022 will exceed the level

of 2019 by 1%. A significant recovery in power

demand is also expected + 3%. At the same time, not

all strategic areas of the economy will be able to

promptly restore their previous volumes. Gas

consumption will decrease by 0.1%, the transport

system will continue to stagnate (-4%), the oil

industry will not be able to exceed consumption

levels of 2019 (-2.9%) (Figure 1-3).

Comparison of changes in the EPI with those in

the GDP growth in developing regions of Europe

indicates a stable decrease in the level of their

greening (Fig. 1-3). Dynamics of changes in the EPI

values determines the nature of the dependence and

enables building dependence equations for further

prediction. According to the equations obtained (Fig.

1-3), R² = 0.98 which indicates significance of certain

dependences and allows you to forecast the EPI for

the regions under analysis (Figure 4).

Reduction in energy demand, and consequently in

emissions in 2020, will be actually offset in the

forecast period, while the numbers of 2021-2026 will

be lower than those in 2019, even in the context of a

slow recovery of regional economies.

As can be seen from Fig. 4, the countries

possessing natural resources are facing another

problem – a strong dependence on the export of fossil

fuels and products of “environmentally unfriendly”

industries (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.). This

makes it difficult to implement greening in the

countries that are reluctant to change their industry,

while there is a strong demand for those products on

international markets. High-income countries,

especially those operating within the EU and OECD

legal framework, are actively involved in greening

their economies due to strict requirements imposed by

these international organizations, financial and

methodological support, technological cooperation

and exchange of experience. Without international

participation, commitments and implementation

mechanisms, many countries tend to adopt

predominantly declarative goals, not implementing

their greening strategies and basically avoiding

setting clear qualitative and quantitative targets.

* forecast period

Figure 1: Comparison of changes in the EPI with those in the GDP growth in Uzbekistan in 2014-2020 (Wendling,

et al.

2020; Hsu,

et al.

, 2014; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2016; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy,

2018; The World Bank,

Dec,

2021a).

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

* forecast period

Figure 2: Comparison of changes in the EPI with those in the GDP growth in Latvia in 2014-2020 (Wendling,

et al.

, 2020;

Hsu,

et al.

, 2014; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2016; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2018;

The World Bank, Dec., 2021b).

* forecast period

Figure 3: Comparison of changes in the EPI with those in the GDP growth in Ukraine in 2014-2020 (Wendling,

et al.

, 2020;

Hsu,

et al.

, 2014; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2016; Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2018;

The World Bank, Dec., 2021c).

Simulation of Regional Development of Bioeconomy under Slowbalization

* forecast period

Figure 4: Dynamics and forecast of changes in the EPI in Uzbekistan, Latvia and Ukraine in 2014 -2026 (built by the authors).

At the same time, some European countries are

actively involved in the greening agenda and have

succeeded in that. Slovakia has become the leader in

terms of greening indicators surpassing many

developed countries, while Slovenia is the best in eco-

innovations in Eastern Europe and Eurasia.

On the other hand, low-income countries continue

to struggle with socio-economic challenges and

poverty, rather than implement greening and

sustainability strategies.

To some extent, the current energy systems and

infrastructure inherited from the socialism times, as

well as behaviour, managerial and business models

represent a significant barrier to greening. On the

other hand, lack of financial resources and experience

in implementing the "green" approach also hinders

rapid evolution of the socioeconomic system,

especially in low- and middle-income countries. In

this respect, international support (including financial

assistance, technology transfer, knowledge exchange

and potential development) is essential, and large-

scale international cooperation with low-income

countries should play a leading part in the greening

process. Analysis of this region’s countries indicates

the key barriers to effective greening policies which

include frequent political changes, lack of

institutional potentials, insufficient financing, wrong

priorities, corruption and dominant traditional

businesses in elaboration and implementation of

economic policies.

Total research and development costs in

developing European countries are very low as

compared to those in developed countries. This may

result from poor patenting activity and lack of

competence in major green innovations and

technologies. For this reason, in this situation, green

technologies can be based on borrowing foreign

innovations and adapting them to local conditions, at

least in the medium run.

The obtained results of regional development

simulation in the context of slowbalization indicate

the need to introduce basic bioeconomy principles to

enhance the economic growth due to effective use of

the biological system with minimal harm to the

environment and, in general, harmonize

socioeconomic development (Tilica, 2021).

Bioeconomy is the economy based on application

of biotechnology with renewable biological raw

materials. Development of bioeconomy sectors

involves increasing energy efficiency, application of

waste materials, development of renewable biomass

energy, greening of the industrial sector, increased

sustainability of agriculture, production of new food

products, and development of medical technologies.

Implementing bioeconomy principles has resulted

in recent environmental innovations, which ensure

rapid greening of regional economic systems.

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

Among the latest green innovations are saving

natural resources and reducing harmful effects on the

environment (Figure 5).

Figure 5: The latest green innovations.

The latest green innovations, namely:

- E-streets as the illumination technology used in

Europe;

- the autonomous eco-city of Masdar in the UAE

designed to implement various eco-technologies

without negative impacts on the environment;

- HCPV-systems as effective and inexpensive

sources of power;

- biodiesel as a rapeseed oil-based fuel that is

environmentally friendly and reduces carbon

emissions;

- electric cars as personal vehicles not emitting

exhaust gases (Kharin, et al., 2020);

- wood fuel briquettes for heating boiler rooms

with minimal smoke emission;

- Dustbot robot cleaner removing rubbish and

monitoring the air pollution level;

- synthetic trees for CO

absorption;

- a Chinese power plant on chicken manure that

uses poultry farm waste as fuel;

- the road surface that cleans the air from exhaust

fumes that is produced from concrete with added

titanium dioxide (Dogaru, 2020).

Therefore, creation of an ecosystem for startups is

a prerequisite for increasing the number of domestic

“green” innovations. The process of invention and

obtaining innovative products and technologies is

time- and labour-consuming. There is a need for

effective legal regulation and institutions, venture

capital funds, support for product commercialization

and market access. Currently, most innovations result

from long-term corporate investments, while market

barriers to innovations are still high.

3 CONCLUSIONS

International experience shows that the following

environmental policies can contribute to the

sustainable and “green” economic growth in

slowbalization conditions:

- supporting an increase in natural, physical, and

human capital (Botelho et al., 2021);

- increasing productivity in terms of renewable

energy sources (Kharin, Purii, 2020);

- boosting “green policy” incentives for

innovations to improve the environmental

performance of firms and households in the regions

(The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate

Policy, 2019)

Introduction of “green growth” technologies in

slowbalization conditions requires more active and

effective integrated work aimed at controlling the

market. “Green” innovations in the industrial policy

should be intensified and accompanied by eliminating

barriers that negatively affect “green” transformation.

The research indicates that there is no single solution

for different regions, as the best solutions for each

region result from different institutional potentials,

transparency, reporting and the degree of community

involvement. At the same time, “green” growth

strategies should meet specific requirements of each

country. So, care should be taken when applying the

best practices to real-life conditions.

Based on the above, it can be stated that

development of bioeconomy requires cooperation

between governments, businesses, academic and

expert circles to solve the following tasks:

- creating the national greening strategy to achieve

ambitious “green” results and developing a roadmap

for fulfilling specific tasks;

- creating a system of greening indicators to

monitor and evaluate the process, identify failures

and develop corrective measures;

Simulation of Regional Development of Bioeconomy under Slowbalization

- adapting implementation mechanisms based on

goals and objectives defined in the Greening Strategy:

“green” taxes, pollution duties, subsidies for green

transport and eco-technologies, elimination of fossil

fuel subsidies, green purchases, green bonds, etc.;

- increasing awareness and provoking behavioural

changes of firms and individuals: the faster people

open up to greening, the faster and smarter it will be;

- building a potential for deep and widespread

changes in the economy, production and

consumption, expanding specialists’ competencies

and qualifications;

- supporting eco-innovations and “green”

technologies, creating ecosystem startups;

- financial resources that are the foundation for

greening and eco-innovations; venture capital

required for domestic innovations and startups, as

well as for adapting foreign innovations;

- international commitments and opportunities

that can enhance the economic growth.

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