E-Commerce Market Pulse in Global Economic Development
Serhii Hushko
1a
, Abdukhakim Mamanazarov
2b
, Azamat Khudaybergenov
3c
,
Temirbay Jiyemuratov
3d
and Kishibay Kudiyarov
3e
1
State University of Economics and Technology, 16 Medychna Str., Kryvyi Rih, 50005, Ukraine
2
Founder of the Center of Economic Culture Development , Tashkent, 100060, Uzbekistan
3
Karakalpak State University named after Berdakh, Ch. Abdirov St. 1, Nukus city,
Republic of Karakalpakstan, 230112, Uzbekistan
Keywords: E-Commerce, Mobile Payments, Chatbots, Internet Sales, Development, COVID-19 Pandemic, B2B,
Forecast, Digital Divide, Regulation of Economic Development.
Abstract: The article outlines international trends of electronic commerce or e-commerce in global economic
development. Types of e-commerce are under study. Dynamics, forecasts, volumes of the mobile payment
market and expansion of the global chatbot market are analyzed. The rating of e-commerce retail sales
countries is presented. E-commerce sales dynamics and forecasts in 2014-2024, dynamics of global Internet
sales in 2011-2021, development of the e-commerce share in total retail sales in different regions during the
COVID-19 pandemic, dynamics and forecasts for e-commerce shares in total retail sales in 2022-2030 are
studied. Economic tools for regulating economic development are proposed to eliminate the digital divide in
global economic development.
1 INTRODUCTION
E-commerce is one of the main components of the
“new economy”, which is gaining greater
significance for further effective development of
commercial activities worldwide. At the present
stage, global e-commerce as the basis of electronic
information business contains a number of issues and
problems to solve, so analysis and detection of its
structural elements, main trends and patterns of
development on the world market is a prerequisite for
further development of commercial activities in
general.
E-commerce is treated as business processes
based on information technology or commercial
activities on the Internet. At present, e-commerce
allows economic entities to significantly reduce
financial and time resources, ensure higher
competitiveness, enter new markets, receive
a
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4833-3694
b
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4253-7629
c
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7316-9021
d
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3680-605X
e
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7305-3942
additional information about consumer needs and
quickly respond to demand changes.
International trends, improvement of the theory
and methods of e-commerce as part of digital
economy at the international level are the issues
included into the circle of scientific interests of such
foreign scientists as D. Johnson, D. Wood and D.
Wardlow (Johnson et al., 2002). However, during the
COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a division of
consumers into electronic and traditional market
ones.
Therefore, the research is aimed at outlining
international trends in e-commerce, identifying
problems and prospects for its development on the
global scale.
To solve the set tasks, the following methods are
used: general scientific methods of cognition (the
system approach, structural and comparative
analysis, regularity trends, subjective and objective
cognition) to determine the essence, types, methods
and tools of e-commerce; analytical methods to
100
Hushko, S., Mamanazarov, A., Khudaybergenov, A., Jiyemuratov, T. and Kudiyarov, K.
E-Commerce Market Pulse in Global Economic Development.
DOI: 10.5220/0011342100003350
In Proceedings of the 5th International Scientific Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence (ISC SAI 2022) - Sustainable Development and Global Climate Change, pages 100-107
ISBN: 978-989-758-600-2
Copyright
c
 2022 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved

nalyze the dynamics of e-commerce in the world;
statistical methods to determine prospects for global
e-commerce development; forecasting methods to
forecast the volume and efficiency of global e-
commerce.
2 GLOBAL E-COMMERCE AS
THE BASIS FOR BUSINESS
Consumers and their benefits are the key factors in
today's rapidly changing world. E-commerce has
always been a way to improve consumer penetration
worldwide. Many companies used to view e-
commerce only as an option. Yet, nowadays, this has
become an obligatory condition for business survival
in the face of severe competition.
E-commerce as a set of economic relations among
subjects of different national economies regarding
exchange, distribution and redistribution of benefits
via computer technologies primarily as a tool of
information exchange becomes a natural result of
scientific and technological advance that is caused by
profound changes in the structure of global
consumption.
In this respect, in the modern economic science,
some concepts are transformed as a result of
emergence of various interpretations of such terms as
e-commerce and e-business.
Two factors have impacted development of e-
commerce. First of all, it is the use of global electronic
networks to transmit and exchange data during
business operations. This phenomenon and the
Internet spread have radically affected business as a
whole expanding commercial relationship via the
Internet.
Today, e-commerce has been incorporated into
people’s everyday life and will remain an integral part
of business relations in the future.
2.1 Types of E-Commerce
E-commerce includes any business processes
performed by means of information technology and
the Internet. There are several basic systems by which
commercial activity is carried out on the Internet.
They are classified by the types of subjects
participating (Murdiana & Hajaoui, 2020) (Table 1).
Table 1: Types of e-commerce.
Types Characteristic
Business-to-Business
(B2B)
It is a form of relations in which commercial enterprises and organizations are parties to
agreements including all levels of information interaction between companies. Specific
technologies and standards of electronic data exchange, such as EDI are used.
Consumer-to-
Consumer (C2C)
This form provides for commercial relations between individuals. By means of specially
organized sites, individuals offer goods and services without any intermediaries.
Business-to-
Consumer/Consumer-
to-Business (B2C/C2B)
E-commerce used to provide the end user with services, so this type has long been the largest
by turnover. A simple example of the B2C system is an online store in which the buyer can
choose the right product and pay online.
Business-to-
Administration (B2A)
Interaction between business and administration involves business ties between commercial
structures and government organizations ranging from local authorities to international
organizations.
Consumer-to-
Administration (C2A)
This direction is the least developed, but has a fairly high potential, which can be used to
arrange interaction between the government and the consumer, especially in the social and
tax spheres.
Business-to-
Government (B2G)
It is a fairly young form of commercial relations that is rapidly developing. This includes
various tenders or public procurement services.
The most common e-commerce options are B2B
(Business-to-Business) and B2C (Business-to-
Consumer). In addition, there are business models
operating in the opposite direction (C2B or G2B)
aimed at supporting business or offering it services.
These forms of relations have not had much coverage
yet and are under development. Since the market of
economic Internet tools is constantly developing,
there arise new options and directions for their
implementation.
As can be seen, e-commerce is present in almost
all traditional forms of commercial and state
structures and continues to develop rapidly.
E-Commerce Market Pulse in Global Economic Development
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2.2 Main International Trends of
E-Commerce
Commercial activities carried out electronically
eliminate some physical restrictions on sales growth
as Internet systems are able to provide orders and
support to customers 24/7, and their area coverage is
limited only by the customer’s access to the network.
The need to reorganize a company’s economic
activity is caused by continuous development and
change of e-commerce technologies which is
associated with technical innovations and changes in
the market space (Hushko et al., 2021).
E-commerce, as one of the most actively
developing sectors of the economy, generates various
trends to keep businesses successful. In the modern
world, the following main international trends can be
distinguished:
1. Mobile purchases and mobile payments.
According to Statista, since 2016, sales on mobile
devices have increased by 15% making 73% in 2021.
In other words, e-commerce sales will be carried out
on smartphones, in particular, due to the demand for
this method of shopping among millennials (people
born from 1980 to 1996) and Generation Z (people
born in 1997-2013) (Figure 1) (The World Bank,
2021а).
* forecast period
Figure 1: Forecast and volume of mobile payments, billion
USD.
2. Voice commerce. Voice assistants such as
Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and Google Assistant
are becoming increasingly popular. It is projected that
by 2023 there will have been 8 billion devices with
voice assistants including smartphones. In fact, voice
purchases are expected to reach 40 billion by 2022.
3. Multichannel e-commerce. The very concept of
multichannel roughly describes the winding route that
the consumer covers from the wish to buy something
until the moment of purchase. It is worth noting that
buyers, who prefer multichannel commerce and
thoughtfully decide to buy, spend more. In fact,
multichannel promotion is simultaneously a science
and art to decipher the most insane nuances of who,
where, when, how and why buys goods through a
particular channel.
4. Artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Artificial intelligence allows technology to
understand repetitive human habits. The potential
power of artificial intelligence and machine learning
is growing day by day.
5. The golden age of virtual reality. Virtual reality
(VR), also known as computer-simulated reality,
makes you feel as if you have entered a simulated
environment. VR will make customers’ shopping
experience even more specific.
6. Improved conversion of e-commerce. To do
business in e-commerce means dealing with a highly
competitive market. That is why, e-commerce
improvement is the key factor as it allows you to stand
out among competitors, build trust, offer a better
customer experience and increase conversion
(Hushko et al., 2019).
7. Chatbots as a progressive way to communicate
with customers. A chatbot is a programme with a
question-answer algorithm in the form of text- or
audio-messages. Its main function is to recognize the
interlocutor’s request and respond correctly to it. This
enables the brand to communicate with its customers
on a twenty-four-hour basis. By 2025, the global
chatbot market is expected to generate profits
exceeding one billion dollars, e-commerce being a
big part of that (Chatbots Market Research, 2020).
Chatbots will continue to be one of the advanced
e-commerce trends in the coming years. The global
chatbot market has reached a huge 24.3% of the total
annual growth rate. 45% of end users consider
chatbots their primary choice for request support.
The forecast and dynamics of chatbot market
development is shown in Figure 2 (Chatbots Market
Research, 2020).
8. Headless е-commerce (HEC). HEC systems are
designed to be compatible with a number of interface
systems: desktop and mobile sites, third-party
platforms such as Amazon and Instagram, voice
assistants (e.g. Amazon Echo), etc.
HEC also allows retailers to control all their
inventory and orders from a single central platform.
This greatly reduces the time it takes to perform
multichannel updates while improving overall user
experience.
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* forecast period
Figure 2: Expansion of the global chatbot market, million
USD.
In fact, HEC enables combining basic operating
systems (supply chain control, consumer
management, financial management, etc.). Besides, it
connects the consumer’s points to this main operating
system without any crossover, which allows you to
quickly make changes.
9. Environmental issue. Modern consumers have
become more aware of how their purchasing behavior
affects the environment. In particular, on the basis of
analyzing purchases, payment eco-cards and
terminals, various services for tracking the carbon
footprint have recently appeared.
10. Visual commerce. The human brain processes
visual information 60 000 times faster than a text.
Experienced online sellers no longer use static photos
of products, they usually include other types of visual
elements such as interactive content, consumer-
generated media, exciting videos, and augmented
reality tools.
2.3 Rating of Top E-Commerce Retail
Sales Countries
It is expedient to analyze the top countries by e-
commerce retail sales in 2020-2021 that follow
international e-commerce trends (Table 2)
(Worldwide Retail and Ecommerce Sales, 2021).
Thus, China is the largest e-commerce market in
the world, not least because of its significant
population. There are over 600 million Internet users
in the country. Shopping is the fastest online activity
in China. At the same time, email marketing is a great
success on the Chinese e-commerce market (Vipin, et
al., 2021). The United States takes the second place
despite the fact that there are about 191.1 million
online buyers and only 28% of small businesses sell
their products via the Internet. In general, more than
a half (57.4%) of American stores work online. For
most American buyers, the ability to check
availability of goods from home (in a storehouse
located nearby or in an online store) is of key
importance.
Table 2: Ten best countries by e-commerce retail sales in
2020-2021.
Countries 2020y 2021y
% of
changes
1. China $2.296.95 $2.779.31 21.0%
2. The USA $794.50 $843.15 6.1%
3. The United
Kingdom
$180.39 $169.02 -6.3%
4. Japan $141.26 $144.08 2.0%
5. South Korea $110.60 $120.56 9.0%
6. Germany $96.86 $101.51 4.8%
7. France $73.80 $80.00 8.4%
8. India $55.35 $67.53 22.0%
9. Canada $39.22 $44.12 12.5%
10. Spain $36.40 $37.12 2.0%
2.4 Global E-Commerce Development
Pulse before the Pandemic, during
the Pandemic and at Present
E-commerce is one of the most dynamic markets and
part of a small number of economy sectors that
continue growing and developing despite the crisis,
currency jumps and other problems faced by
economies of different countries in recent years.
Analysis of the current state of e-commerce
development in the world enables revealing main
trends in this area. In 2020, total Internet sales
amounted to almost 4 trillion USD as shown in Figure
3 (The World Bank, 2021b).
* forecast period
Figure 3: Dynamics and forecast of e-commerce sales in
2014-2024, trillion USD.
As can be seen, in 2020, the pandemic also caused
a drop in online sales indices. However, in 2021, there
has been a jump in Internet sales with increased
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intensity of e-commerce worldwide (Figure 4) (The
World Bank, 2021c).
Figure 4: Dynamics of Internet sales worldwide in 2011-
2021, million GBP.
In 2020, global e-commerce became an increasing
area with no signs of decline even given the
coronavirus crisis. E-commerce remains a popular
choice for investment and new business, and further
growth will contribute to development of user-
friendly techniques, technologies, thus increasing
competition in this regard (Tolstoy, 2021).
However, intensity of dynamics of the e-
commerce share in total retail sales in different
regions of the world is not the same (Figure 5) (The
World Bank, 2021d).
As can be seen from Figure 5, during the
pandemic peak, the share of e-commerce in total retail
sales increased rapidly in all the regions under study.
We can also note a general trend of significant excess
of the e-commerce share in total retail sales in the
current period compared to the pre-pandemic
situation.
Figure 5: Development of the e-commerce share in total retail sales in different regions during the COVID-19 pandemic, %.
At the same time, an increase of the e-commerce
share in total retail sales in different regions is noted
for different intensity. In countries with high
digitalization (Great Britain, the USA, France) during
the pandemic peak, the share of e-commerce
increased by 9%-11%. Countries with lower
digitalization were able to replace retail sales with
electronic ones only partially (3%-6%). However, the
global trend indicates a steady increase in the e-
commerce share in retail sales.
Apparently, given high population density and
rapid spread of information technology, Asia
occupies the leading position. The spread of retail e-
commerce in Asia is associated with improved
communication infrastructure and enhanced security
of calculation methods. Today, more and more
residents of Asia, primarily of China and India, are
getting access to the Internet. Therefore, the annual
20% growth of the online sales rate is expected in this
region (Lytvyn et al., 2021).
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The countries of Europe and America are also
worth noting, as these regions are highly developed
and introduction of Internet technologies is part of an
active increase in business efficiency.
Analysis of the e-commerce market and existing
e-commerce models reveals that B2B total sales
reached 10.8 trillion USD in 2020 (Figure 6) (The
World Bank, 2021e).
Figure 6: Dynamics of B2B e-commerce in 2013-2019,
trillion USD.
Thus, the B2B e-commerce market is twice as
large as that of B2C and it continues to grow.
Development of online-trade, as well as the
economy as a whole occurs cyclically with interaction
of technological innovations, economic and social
factors. These cycles are the basis for building
forecasts. During 2016-2020, the global e-commerce
market was growing at a significant average annual
pace and in the next four years, i.e. in 2021-2025, it is
projected to grow as well.
2.5 E-Commerce Market Development
Forecast
With all the scale and attractiveness of foreign e-
commerce markets, many of Ukrainian B2B
companies avoid them out of fear not to be able to
compete with local and world players. In 2020, e-
commerce sales accounted for 18% of all retail sales
worldwide.
Figure 7 shows the real situation of e-commerce
market development (The World Bank, 2021f).
Based on the analysis of 2015-2021 data, a linear
equation of changes in e-commerce rates is built:
y
= 2,0821x+4,4857 (1)
According to the obtained equation of constraints,
R² = 0.9673, which indicates essentiality of the
relationship between the analyzed indices, it is
possible to predict rapid development of global e-
commerce in the nearest future.
Figure 7: Dynamics of e-commerce shares in total global
retail sales for 2015-2021, %.
Figure 8 shows the forecast of e-commerce
market development (built by the authors).
* forecast period
Figure 8: Dynamics and forecast of e-commerce shares in
total global retail sales for 2022-2030, %.
The gradual growth of the e-commerce share in
the world retail trade in 2015-2019 was transformed
into rapid development in 2019. This is due to the fact
that during the crisis, new technologies and
approaches always appear being a new driving force
for further development (United Nations, 2021).
Consequences of the adverse phase of the
COVID-19 pandemic can last for a long time and e-
commerce in goods and services will continue to
adapt to new conditions. According to the analysis,
we can say that in the short term, negative effects of
the pandemic for the entire segment will be more
significant, and only digital services sector and
certain categories of goods that have increased
demand as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will
benefit from the crisis (Arbidane et al., 2021). In
addition, according to the studies, the growth in
demand was rather short-term. When restrictions
E-Commerce Market Pulse in Global Economic Development
105

weaken, many customers begin to return to more
familiar offline purchases.
However, in the long run, this shock can provoke
acceleration of digitalization of the on-market trading
sector and, as a result, growth of e-commerce
popularity in general. This may, in particular, be
expressed in more active growth of the influence of
existing technological trends in e-commerce and
emergence of new trends.
Freedom of business activity and trade including
the electronic one is the key to development of both
global and national economies. Ensuring a favourable
business climate is becoming a prerequisite for
effective functioning of such high-tech sectors as e-
commerce.
4 CONCLUSIONS
Introduction of social distancing, the quarantine and
other restrictive measures in response to the COVID-
19 pandemic has led to a fundamental shift in the
structure of global demand for online shopping, as
well as to increasing the use of digital communication
and remote consumption tools, such as social
networks, Internet telephony, teleconferencing, and
video streaming.
The analysis of e-commerce volumes in global
retail sales for 2015-2021 reveals the linear character
of the growing curve. The obtained linear dependence
allows predicting the growth rate of e-commerce in
total world retail sales by 2030. According to the data
obtained, in 2030 the share of e-commerce in total
global retail sales will make 34%. This indicates a
change in the structure of the global trade market.
However, not all regions will be able to ensure such
structural changes in the world trade due to existing
digital constraints.
Analysis of the volumes of traditional and e-
commerce in the period of 2015-2020 demonstrates a
sufficient difference in indices with clear
predominance of e-commerce. Transition to online
sales during the pandemic has contributed to this
trend.
As can be seen from the diagrams, in the period
of slowbalization the growth rate of e-commerce is
much higher than in the previous period of
globalization. This is due to the slowdown in physical
international trade accompanied by development of
affordable sales in the digital space.
It is proved that with IT advances and changes
in consumer behaviour it is necessary to follow
current e-commerce trends. Regardless of the e-
commerce direction, one should take it to improve
customers’ shopping experience and build long-term
relationships with them. You can develop together
with e-commerce and take advantage of its current
and innovative trends, thus raising evolution of e-
commerce to a new level.
The pandemic highlights critical importance of
the digital economy and the urgent need to bridge a
digital divide both within and between countries and
exacerbates existing problems of having access to e-
commerce opportunities for small businesses, sellers
and consumers in developing countries.
Many traditional obstacles associated with the
digital divide have become even more serious in the
context of the COVID-19 pandemic. These include
access to online payments, reliable Internet and
electricity connections, high cost of cross-border
trading, visibility issues during online searches, and
difficulties in gaining consumer trust.
Thus, the crisis as a whole has widened the
digital divide between consumers who have access to
the Internet and are digitally literate, and those who
do not possess these skills and opportunities. This
division is especially pronounced between developed
and developing countries, urban and rural areas, the
rich and the poor, large and small firms as well as for
the elderly and people with disabilities.
All these problems can potentially increase
global inequality. Therefore, the digital divide can be
eliminated by economic instruments for regulating
economic development, in particular through:
- developing information support for enterprises
to ensure their effective trade in the digital space
during the pandemic;
- expanding Internet coverage and providing
access to the digital economy in all the regions;
- improving the level of digital literacy;
- developing the section of the labour code for
online workers to provide security and labour safety
of employees working remotely (Hushko et al.,
2021);
- elaborating control methods and ensuring
compliance with safety and quality standards when
implementing e-commerce;
- ensuring cyber-security for e-commerce
consumers and employees;
- providing comprehensive business support
during transition to e-trade under pandemic
conditions;
- developing budget policy measures in the
context of the pandemic to support online sales
channels.
Therefore, in order to use e-commerce and
actively involve developing countries in international
e-business, it is necessary to pursue a systematic state
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policy in the IT sector and introduce advanced tools
in view of current trends. It is proved that
development of information technology and changes
in consumer behaviour make us follow e-commerce
trends. Regardless of the e-commerce direction, one
should take it to improve customers’ shopping
experience and build long-term relationships with
them. You can develop together with e-commerce
and take advantage of its current and innovative
trends, thus raising evolution of e-commerce to a new
level.
The measures presented to eliminate the digital
divide of state economic regulation can only play a
stimulating role and target market failures creating an
environment in which digital business can thrive.
Governments need to realize the potential of private
initiatives in the e-commerce sector to achieve
sustainable development goals during the pandemic.
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