Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and

Opportunities to Overcome Them

A. I. Akavova

and S. A. Beguev

State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “Dagestan State University of National Economy”,

Makhachkala, Russia

Kadyrov Chechen State University, 32 Sheripova Street, Grozny, Russia

Keywords: Low-carbon development, energy transition, decarbonization, renewable energy sources, energy policy,

greenhouse gases, global warming, cross-border carbon regulation, carbon tax, cap-and-trade.

Abstract: The article discusses the low-carbon development of energy, the energy transition, which is the energy basis

for transforming the world to a low-carbon economy. The climate agenda of the European Union is analyzed.

Threats and risks for Russia associated with cross-border carbon regulation in the EU, shrinkage of global

fossil fuel markets, and increased competition on them. The possibilities of Russia's international cooperation

in the provision of fossil fuels are being explored. Approaches that reduce threats to Russia in the process of

transition to a low-carbon economy are considered.

1 INTRODUCTION

The transition to a low-carbon economy in recent

years has become an important direction in the

development of many countries of the world

community, which largely determines the

possibilities for economic growth, the direction and

effectiveness of international cooperation.

A low-carbon economy is characterized by low

consumption of fossil fuels. The need for a transition

to such an economy is associated with global climate

change caused by anthropogenic emissions of

greenhouse gases into the atmosphere: such as carbon

dioxide CO2, methane CH4, ozone O3, etc. This

leads to an increase in temperature on the planet,

melting ice, rising sea level, brings irreversible

damage to the environment, causing irreversible

climate change. The greatest impact on the climate

has an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide

CO2 in the atmosphere. Methane (CH4) and other

greenhouse gases have a much lesser impact on

climate change.

The global nature of the "transition" requires the

combined efforts and coordinated approaches of

countries at different levels of economic

development, primarily in the energy sectorHowever,

in the context of expanding and deepening

international cooperation, the role of the political

factor in solving emerging problems is growing, and

the transition to a low-carbon economy can become a

hostage to political intrigues and big politics.

The situation is complicated by the SOUGO-19

coronavirus infection, as a result of which

cooperation channels within the country are limited,

borders between countries are closed, foreign

economic relations are curtailed, and production

chains are being destroyed. On world markets, as a

result of the slowdown in production, demand for

Russian energy carriers is decreasing.

The energy policy of the European Union, the

United States, and a number of other countries of the

world community is aimed at reducing the

consumption of fossil fuels, and strict carbon

regulation measures are being introduced. Under

these conditions, Russia, which plays an important

role in the global energy supply, in the near future

may be under pressure from the compression of

foreign markets for fossil fuels, strict measures of

carbon regulation. There are risks and threats for the

development of its economy.

To overcome them, systemic transformations of

the Russian economy are needed, it is necessary to

create capable institutions with effective tools and

mechanisms for strategic planning that will make it

possible to switch to a low-carbon economy and

energy, to enter the trajectory of sustainable

development.

Akavova, A. and Beguev, S.

Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them.

DOI: 10.5220/0011555200003524

In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Methods, Models, Technologies for Sustainable Development (MMTGE 2022) - Agroclimatic Projects and Carbon Neutrality, pages

88-95

ISBN: 978-989-758-608-8

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

The energy basis for the transformation of the world

to a low-carbon economy is the fourth energy

transition. It is generally accepted that so far mankind

has experienced three energy transitions to a new

combination of energy carriers: from biomass

(including firewood and waste) to the dominant

position of coal, from coal to the decisive role of oil,

and from oil to the increasing role of gas, hydropower

and nuclear fuel.

And if earlier an important motive for switching

from a combination of some energy sources to others

was their efficiency and competitiveness of costs,

now, in addition to these factors, decisive attention is

paid to the decarbonization of the energy sector

(reducing the share of fossil fuels in the energy

balance, developing the electric power industry, and

reducing the energy intensity of the economy).

The energy sector of the world economy, which

accounts for the main greenhouse gas emissions, is

central to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The

energy sector in the world accounts for about 80% of

all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into

the atmosphere. Their main source is fossil fuels. In

the global structure of energy consumption in 2020, it

accounted for 83.1%, in Russia's energy consumption

- 86.4%1.

Energy decarbonization implies a reduction in

carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy

produced, which is associated with technological

modernization and significant structural changes in

the economy (Glazyev, 2021). Without a new

technological base, it is impossible to drastically

reduce the use of fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas

emissions, and reduce the share of industries with a

high carbon footprint in the economy. With low-

carbon development, it is necessary to close coal-

fired thermal power plants, cement and glass

production, metallurgical enterprises, and reduce the

car park that uses fossil fuels. It is necessary to

expand the use of electrical energy and improve the

energy efficiency of the economy.

In Russia, energy is not only a carbon-intensive,

but a backbone sector of the economy. In the process

of transition to low-carbon development, energy is

the core of structural and technological

transformations, the adaptation of the Russian

economy to the new climate agenda.

In the process of energy transition, the use of

fossil fuels (primarily coal, oil, and in the more distant

future, gas) is gradually decreasing in the structure of

energy production, and the share of renewable energy

sources (RES) in the energy balance is being

increased. Nuclear power is being developed in a

number of countries. Much attention is paid to the

development of electrification, the use of hydrogen as

an energy carrier and energy storage, the

modernization of the technological base at all stages

of the energy flow.

An important technical content of the fourth

energy transition is the fifth and sixth technological

modes. The fifth mode is based on the achievements

of microelectronics, information technology, genetic

engineering, fiber optic communication systems. The

sixth technological order is based on the development

of nano- and biotechnology, nanoenergy, molecular

and cellular technology. The emergence of new

technologies makes it possible to ensure progress in

the creation of efficient renewable energy sources, the

use of hydrogen, the development of nuclear energy,

and the creation of controlled thermonuclear

installations. At the same time, they make it possible

to drastically reduce the energy and material intensity

of production, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases

and other pollutants, i.e. ensure low-carbon

development of the economy.

“As the next technological order develops, a new

type of infrastructure is created that overcomes the

limitations of the previous one, and a transition is

made to new types of energy carriers that lay the

resource base.

for the formation of the next technological

paradigm"

The transition to a new combination of energy

sources makes it possible to increase the efficiency of

the use of energy resources, reduce the dependence of

economic growth on energy consumption, switch to

clean energy and the economy as a whole, and

thereby prevent negative climate change associated

with rising global temperatures. The transition to a

new energy base will largely determine the success of

the transformation of the world economy to a low-

carbon economy (Gorodnitsky, 2019).

Limiting the global warming of the Earth's

climate is one of the fundamental ideas that is at the

heart of the need to move to low-carbon development.

However, it should be noted that among scientists,

politicians, economists there is no unambiguous view

on the causes of global warming. According to a

number of experts, global warming is a myth that

frightens all of humanity. From their point of view,

the cause of global warming is not associated with

anthropogenic and man-made factors, with

greenhouse gas emissions. It is associated primarily

Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them

with fluctuations in solar activity and other natural

factors.

One can argue about whether the theory of global

warming really reflects the processes that occur in the

planet's atmosphere, but it gives a powerful impetus

to the entire world community towards a more

rational combination of energy sources, the transition

to a new technological order. This allows us to

significantly improve the technical level in all sectors

of the economy, increase the efficiency of capital

investment, and move to a new level of energy

consumption. And in this sense, the idea of low-

carbon development has many advantages.

However, if global warming is in no way or

weakly related to anthropogenic emissions of

greenhouse gases, then this fundamentally changes

the approaches, methods and mechanisms for the

transition to low-carbon development.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The energy basis for the transformation of the world

to a low-carbon economy is the fourth energy

transition. It is generally accepted that so far mankind

has experienced three energy transitions to a new

combination of energy carriers: from biomass

(including firewood and waste) to the dominant

position of coal, from coal to the decisive role of oil,

and from oil to the increasing role of gas, hydropower

and nuclear fuel.

And if earlier an important motive for switching

from a combination of some energy sources to others

was their efficiency and competitiveness of costs,

now, in addition to these factors, decisive attention is

paid to the decarbonization of the energy sector

(reducing the share of fossil fuels in the energy

balance, developing the electric power industry, and

reducing the energy intensity of the economy).

3.1 Energy Transition

The energy sector of the world economy, which

accounts for the main greenhouse gas emissions, is

central to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The

energy sector in the world accounts for about 80% of

all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into

the atmosphere. Their main source is fossil fuels. In

the global structure of energy consumption in 2020, it

accounted for 83.1%, in Russia's energy consumption

- 86.4%1.

Energy decarbonization implies a reduction in

carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy

produced, which is associated with technological

modernization and significant structural changes in

the economy. Without a new technological base, it is

impossible to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels,

reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce the

share of industries with a high carbon footprint in the

economy. With low-carbon development, it is

necessary to close coal-fired thermal power plants,

cement and glass production, metallurgical

enterprises, and reduce the car park that uses fossil

fuels. It is necessary to expand the use of electrical

energy and improve the energy efficiency of the

economy.

In Russia, energy is not only a carbon-intensive,

but a backbone sector of the economy. In the process

of transition to low-carbon development, energy is

the core of structural and technological

transformations, the adaptation of the Russian

economy to the new climate agenda.

In the process of energy transition, the use of

fossil fuels (primarily coal, oil, and in the more distant

future, gas) is gradually decreasing in the structure of

energy production, and the share of renewable energy

sources (RES) in the energy balance is being

increased. Nuclear power is being developed in a

number of countries. Much attention is paid to the

development of electrification, the use of hydrogen as

an energy carrier and energy storage, the

modernization of the technological base at all stages

of the energy flow.

An important technical content of the fourth

energy transition is the fifth and sixth technological

modes. The fifth mode is based on the achievements

of microelectronics, information technology, genetic

engineering, fiber optic communication systems. The

sixth technological order is based on the development

of nano- and biotechnology, nanoenergy, molecular

and cellular technology. The emergence of new

technologies makes it possible to ensure progress in

the creation of efficient renewable energy sources, the

use of hydrogen, the development of nuclear energy,

and the creation of controlled thermonuclear

installations. At the same time, they make it possible

to drastically reduce the energy and material intensity

of production, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases

and other pollutants, i.e. ensure low-carbon

development of the economy (Yulkin, 2019).

“As the next technological order develops, a new

type of infrastructure is created that overcomes the

limitations of the previous one, and a transition is

made to new types of energy carriers that lay the

resource base. for the formation of the next

technological paradigm"

The transition to a new combination of energy

sources makes it possible to increase the efficiency of

MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon

neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher

the use of energy resources, reduce the dependence of

economic growth on energy consumption, switch to

clean energy and the economy as a whole, and

thereby prevent negative climate change associated

with rising global temperatures. The transition to a

new energy base will largely determine the success of

the transformation of the world economy to a low-

carbon economy.

Limiting the global warming of the Earth's climate

is one of the fundamental ideas that is at the heart of

the need to move to low-carbon development.

However, it should be noted that among scientists,

politicians, economists there is no unambiguous view

on the causes of global warming. According to a

number of experts, global warming is a myth that

frightens all of humanity. From their point of view,

the cause of global warming is not associated with

anthropogenic and man-made factors, with

greenhouse gas emissions. It is associated primarily

with fluctuations in solar activity and other natural

factors.

One can argue about whether the theory of global

warming really reflects the processes that occur in the

planet's atmosphere, but it gives a powerful impetus

to the entire world community towards a more

rational combination of energy sources, the transition

to a new technological order. This allows us to

significantly improve the technical level in all sectors

of the economy, increase the efficiency of capital

investment, and move to a new level of energy

consumption. And in this sense, the idea of low-

carbon development has many advantages.

However, if global warming is in no way or

weakly related to anthropogenic emissions of

greenhouse gases, then this fundamentally changes

the approaches, methods and mechanisms for the

transition to low-carbon development (Bashmakov,

2021).

3.2 Climate Agenda

Global warming, climate change leads to the

deterioration of the ecological situation on the planet,

hinders the development of the world community.

The global climate agenda is gaining more and more

support among the countries of the world community.

For the first time, the foundations of international

climate policy were laid down in the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) in 1992. Its ultimate goal is to “achieve

stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere at a level that excludes dangerous

anthropogenic impact on the climate system.”

An important step in the fight against negative

climate change for the entire world community was

the Paris Climate Agreement, which was adopted in

December 2015 and entered into force in 2021.5 It is

aimed at combating global warming, limiting

greenhouse gas emissions and came to to succeed the

1997 Kyoto Protocol. It is intended to ensure that

peak CO2 emissions are reached as quickly as

possible, to keep the increase in global average

temperature "well below" 2°C, and to "make efforts"

to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5°C6. As of

November 2020, 194 states and the European Union

have signed the agreement.

The most radical and ambitious measures for the

transition to low-carbon development are being taken

by the European Union. As part of the New Green

Deal project 2019, it is planned to reduce greenhouse

gas emissions (among which CO2 is the main one) by

2030 by at least 55% compared to 1990. By 2050, it

is planned to achieve carbon neutrality, that is,

emissions of carbon dioxide and its analogues are

offset by their absorption (carbon-negative projects).

The main ideas and provisions of the New Green

Agenda project were further developed in two

important strategic documents aimed at achieving

climate neutrality. These include: Strategy for the

integration development of the energy system

EU (An EU Strategy for Energy System

Integration, Brussels, 8.7.20 208) and A Hydrogen

Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe, Brussels,

8.7.20 209. They were submitted by the European

Commission in July 2020.

Energy system integration refers to “the planning

and operation of the energy system as a whole”,

covering many energy carriers, infrastructures and

consumption sectors, by creating stronger links

between them in order to provide low-carbon, reliable

and resource-efficient energy services at the lowest

possible cost to society”

The transition to a more integrated energy system

will provide an opportunity to strengthen the

interconnectedness of individual sectors of the EU

energy economy. Regional and cross-border

coordination among EU Member States will become

increasingly important. It is planned to develop

common market rules for various sectors of the

energy economy, strengthen cooperation in the

planning and management of electricity and gas

networks, which is especially important in the context

of the expected significant growth in demand for

electricity during the transition to a climate-neutral

economy. All this will help to improve the efficiency

of energy use.

Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them

The share of electricity in final energy

consumption is projected to increase from 23% in

2019 to about 30% in 2030 and to 50% by 2050. The

basis of the growing demand for electricity will be

renewable energy sources. By 2030, the share of

renewable energy sources in the electricity mix may

double to 55-60%, and by 2050 it will be about 84%.

The need to increase the supply of electricity will be

met through the operation of renewable energy

sources not only on land, but also on the shelf. The

potential of offshore wind power in the EU by 2050

will be 300-450 GW against today's capacity of about

12 GW.

In the future, the volume of natural gas

consumption in the European Union will gradually

decrease. However, it is assumed that gaseous fuels,

as before, will continue to play an important role in

the energy mix. Along with the traditional "fossil"

natural gas, a mixture of gaseous energy carriers -

biogas, biomethane, hydrogen, synthetic gases - will

become more widespread. According to estimates, by

2050 the share of fossil natural gas in the total

consumption of gaseous fuels will be reduced to 20%,

and the remaining 80% will fall on a mixture of

gaseous energy carriers (renewable gases,

decarbonized gases). It is planned to revise the

legislative framework in order to create a competitive

market for decarbonized gas suitable for the use of

renewable gases.

The integrated energy system opens up new

opportunities for attracting investments in clean

technologies, minimizes the costs of transition to

climate neutrality, provides additional flexibility for

the overall management of the energy system, and

strengthens the EU's industrial leadership at the

global level. Energy system integration, realizing the

potential for energy efficiency, is essential to achieve

higher climate goals by 2030 and climate neutrality

by 2050.

The “Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate Neutral

Europe” involves the widespread use of hydrogen,

which can be used as a fuel or raw material in

industry, transport, energy, construction and

households. Hydrogen can be used to produce, store,

store and deliver energy. The main difference

between hydrogen and other energy carriers is that it

does not emit CO2 and, when used, almost does not

pollute the air. The transportation of hydrogen

through the existing transport network (pipelines) and

its long-term large-scale storage, unlike electricity,

can be well mastered, which allows creating, if

necessary, energy reserves for their use at the right

time. The share of hydrogen in the energy mix will be

comparable to that currently occupied by certain

types of fossil fuels. The share of hydrogen in the EU

energy balance is projected to grow from the current

level of less than 2% in 2018 to 13-14% by 2050. The

priority direction of the hydrogen strategy is the

production of hydrogen using renewable energy

sources - wind and solar. At the first stage it is

supposed to use low-carbon hydrogen.

It is supposed to create an open and competitive

EU market with unhindered cross-border trade in

hydrogen, which will create conditions for deeper

integration with other energy carriers. Hydrogen

issues can be included in EU international agreements

in the field of energy and diplomacy, as well as in the

field of climate, research, trade and international

cooperation. This will contribute to the emergence of

a global competitive hydrogen market, international

trade in hydrogen of the European Union with other

countries.

Accelerating the transition to "green" energy, the

European Union is taking measures to accelerate the

development of renewable energy sources, reduce

carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, reduce

the consumption of fossil fuels, and by 2050 to

abandon its consumption. The plans are ambitious,

and this does not mean that they will be fully

implemented, but they do exist and they must be

taken into account, taken into account when

developing a strategy for Russia's long-term

development.

By adopting the Paris Agreement, Russia has

assumed voluntary limits on greenhouse gas

emissions. But these restrictions are associated with

significant risks for the national economy, primarily

energy and energy-intensive industries (metallurgy,

production of nitrogen fertilizers and cement). Russia

has a significant part of its income from natural rent.

In its export-oriented raw material model, an

important place is played by the extraction of fuel and

its supply abroad. If, when limiting their emissions,

the real opportunities and interests of the Russian

economy are not taken into account, if the

effectiveness of measures that limit greenhouse

emissions is not assessed, then this may lead to an

increase in threats to the national security of the

country of Russia (Glazyev, 2018).

Russia is the fourth country in the world in terms

of greenhouse gas generation. Carbon dioxide CO2 is

used as an equivalent for estimating total emissions.

In 2020, in terms of CO2 emissions, Russia ranked

fourth in the world (4.6%) of total carbon dioxide

emissions among 65 countries that provide about 95%

of all global emissions. In the first place in this

indicator was China (30.7%), the second - the USA

(13.8%), the third - India (7.1%).

MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon

neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher

In terms of the intensity of carbon dioxide

emissions in kilograms per unit of GDP, Russia and

China occupy leading positions in the world

community. In

It presents two low-carbon development

scenarios: inertial and targeted (intensive), which is

proposed as the main one. Achievement of carbon

neutrality of the Russian Federation is scheduled for

2060, but possibly even earlier. The carbon intensity

of the economy should be more than halved. Net

greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 60% by

2050 compared to 2019. Increasing the absorptive

capacity of Russian forests from the current 535 to

1200 million tons13 of carbon dioxide equivalent by

2050 is becoming an important way to achieve carbon

neutrality.

3.2.1 Threats and Risks

Low-carbon development in the conditions of the

existing world order (lack of balance of power in the

world community and coherence of international

processes) brings, first of all, benefits to those

countries that do not have significant reserves of

fossil fuels, but have leadership in scientific and

technological progress, occupy leading positions in

the knowledge economy.

The closest and real threat to the Russian economy

is the cross-border carbon regulation (TCR), which is

supposed to be introduced by the European Union.

Cross-border carbon regulation (CTR) refers to the

imposition of duties on carbon-intensive goods

imported by the EU. This tax is introduced for exports

from countries that do not charge for high CO2

emissions.

European companies currently pay billions of

euros annually for CO2 emissions. They pay about 30

euros per tonne of CO2 emissions. A similar carbon

tax is expected to be introduced in the US and

Canada. In order to create a level playing field for

European companies and those outside the EU, it is

proposed to impose duties on carbon-intensive goods

imported by the EU. The introduction of EU

transboundary carbon regulation aims the countries of

the world community to reduce carbon emissions,

directs them to reduce the carbon intensity of exports.

However, such regulation can significantly change

the structure and direction of international

commodity flows, affecting all links in the value

chains, as competitive advantages in the European

market change (Nikoláeva, 2018).

A large-scale plan to introduce a carbon tax in the

EU on imported goods has been in the process of

development since March 2020. The COVID-19

pandemic has not slowed down work on the creation

of new tax instruments, but has only accelerated it.

The parameters of the carbon tax should be prepared

by the European Commission and come into force by

November 1, 202314. The main indicators and

mechanisms of this tax will be included in the

European climate law. Cross-border carbon

regulation makes it possible to ensure the

competitiveness of relatively expensive products

produced in the European Union, but with minimal

CO2 emissions, with goods from other countries that

use cheaper, but carbon-intensive technologies, with

significant greenhouse gas emissions.

World experience shows that for limiting and

reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the most

effective are economic instruments that form the price

of carbon. These include carbon taxes and emissions

trading systems (ETS). “This allows us to include in

the cost of production those external costs that the

economy and society as a whole will have to bear to

overcome the consequences of emissions,

“monetizing” the damage to the environment”

There are estimates according to which Russia

ranks second in the world after China in terms of

carbon-intensive exports to the EU: annually 150-200

million tons of exports of CO2 equivalent for all

goods and services. Depending on the calculation

methodology, the level of the taxable base for tax

collection can be significantly lower and amount to

100-160 million tons16. In this case, the calculation

does not take into account some of the goods and

services, for example, transport, which are not yet

included in the EU ETS (Emission trading scheme -

greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme). If we

assume that the entire volume of emissions is taxed,

and the possible value of the fee per ton of CO2

emissions is estimated at 30 euros, then the additional

tax burden for Russian exporters will be 3.0-4.8

billion euros per year. Other calculation options are

also possible, when only the excess of emissions

above the established level is taxed.

The carbon tax on imports reduces the

competitiveness of Russian goods compared to their

European counterparts, and such basic sectors of the

Russian economy as the energy and chemical

industries, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy are

significantly affected. The competitive struggle of

Russian goods in the EU market is escalating. A

cross-border carbon tax could require additional costs

for Russian oil and gas, coal and steel companies in

the millions of euros per year. All of the above can

become an important factor affecting the

competitiveness of Russian products.

Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them

Under the current conditions, in order to adapt the

economy to the introduction of EU transboundary

carbon regulation in the short term, Russia could take

the following steps:

- it is necessary to develop a national standard

for carbon reporting in Russia so that it

corresponds to international analogues that

meet more stringent European environmental

standards;

- evaluate the extent to which the proposed

restrictions on international trade do not

contradict international standards and comply

with WTO rules. Cross-border carbon

regulation should not create conditions for

unfair competition, when EU companies

acquire preferences from their governments,

gaining advantages over Russian companies;

- it is necessary to create a national system for

trading greenhouse gas emissions. For Russia,

which has significant opportunities for natural

absorption of CO2 by forests and natural

ecosystems, it is advisable to form a market for

greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide),

introduce quotas for greenhouse gases, and

create conditions for trading them.

With the transition to a low-carbon economy, the

peak of demand for the main product that Russia

produces and that is in demand abroad - fossil fuels is

significantly approaching in time. After reaching it,

there is a drop in demand for it. The global market for

fossil fuels is shrinking. There are estimates

according to which, as a result of the low-carbon

development of the economy, the world coal

consumption peak should occur in the 2020s and

2030s. - world peak oil consumption and 2040s. -

world gas consumption peak17.

In the future, a situation may arise when there will

be no place left in the external, as well as in the

domestic, markets for fossil fuels, i.e. what Russia is

rich in and on which its economic growth largely

depends, will not be in demand. Keeping the focus on

the raw material model focused on the export of fossil

fuels in the conditions when the world is moving to a

low-carbon economy, Russia will increasingly lag

behind other countries in the world community, will

lead to a slowdown in economic growth until they are

completely zeroed, and then fall.

The contraction of the world markets for fossil

fuels is accompanied by increased international

competition on them. Such major transnational

corporations as Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil

Co, Gazprom, Exxon Mobil, PetroChina, Rosneft,

BP, Royal Dutch/Shell, Chevron Texaco, Total,

Kuwait Petroleum Corp. In the transition to a low-

carbon economy, competition is shifting from

competition for resources, for access to the most

efficient hydrocarbon deposits, to a fierce struggle for

markets.

The result of the shrinkage of world energy

markets, if we do not get away from the raw material

export model, will be the strengthening of Russia's

isolation in the world economy, the reduction of the

opportunity to develop due to the advantages of the

international division of labor. This will hit the

economy of the country, which, after the collapse of

the USSR, has significantly expanded foreign

economic relations and become less self-sufficient,

becoming largely dependent on Western technologies

and equipment. It is impossible to develop hard-to-

recover oil and gas fields without the use of advanced

Western technologies. Import substitution can give

some positive results in certain sectors of the

economy, but in conditions of isolation it is difficult

to overcome a significant technological gap. Much

more development opportunities lie in the advantages

of the international division of labor (Porfiriev, 2010).

In the process of transition to a low-carbon

economy, Russia faces the risk of a fall (decrease) in

the geopolitical potential of the country, which

currently largely depends on the availability and

volume of natural resources, primarily fossil fuels,

with which the country is rich. Russia owns 6.2% of

the world's oil reserves, 19.1% - gas, 15.2% - coal.

Russia accounts for 11.5% of world oil production,

17.6% for gas, and 5.4% for coal18. Such a powerful

energy base made it possible for Russia to supply

energy carriers abroad on a significant scale and,

through energy ties, to strengthen its position in the

system of international relations. Today those times

are passing. The transition to a low-carbon economy

reduces the opportunities for international

cooperation at the expense of fossil fuels. The internal

reserves of economic development are also shrinking.

As a result, Russia's geopolitical potential is

decreasing. The country is losing its competitive

position in the world community, in the formation of

regional economic unions.

Summarizing the above, it should be noted that

the transition to a low-carbon economy reduces the

threats and risks for the world community associated

with environmental degradation, depletion and

uneven distribution of traditional fossil resources.

However, for Russia, the transition to low-carbon

development is a source of new threats and risks for

its economy. The most significant of them include:

- the exhaustion of the export-raw material

model of the development of the Russian

economy in the conditions of unrealized

MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon

neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher

innovative growth factors, the loss of its

investment attractiveness;

- contraction of world energy markets, increased

international competition on them;

- strengthening the isolation of Russia in the

world economy, reducing the opportunity to

develop due to the advantages of the

international division of labor;

- the loss of competitiveness of the Russian

economy, the decrease in the profitability of its

energy sector and a number of other sectors that

produce products with a high carbon intensity;

- the fall of the geopolitical potential of Russia.

The decline of its leadership positions in the

formation of regional economic unions.

Reducing Russia's ability to strengthen its

position in the post-Soviet space, in the

European Union and the world community.

To solve these problems, systemic

transformations are required, both in the fuel and

energy complex and in the country's economy as a

whole. The Energy Strategy of the Russian

Federation for the period up to 2035 (ES-2035) could

become, but did not become, the basis for such

transformations (Temnov, 1987).

4 CONCLUSIONS

The main drawback of ES-2035 is that it does not

reflect the key issues of transition to a low-carbon

economy, which requires systemic transformations in

the energy complex and the country's economy. It

does not have a clearly defined goal of phasing out

the use of fossil fuels, and does not show the ways

and mechanisms for the transition to low-carbon

development. In EU-2035, as in previous strategies,

the focus is on increasing the production of fossil

fuels and ensuring a high level of its exports. A

significant adjustment of the goals and objectives set

in ES-2035 is required.

It is necessary to change the role of the state in

regulating economic processes. The formed executive

vertical of power allows the practice of manual

control. Tactical managerial decisions are made at the

very top, and the whole system becomes clumsy. In

order for the management system to become mobile,

tactical decisions must be transferred to a lower level.

At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the role

of the state in strategic level of energy regulation.

Without this, the system is not capable of either

strategic planning or strategic vision. Hence, in

reality, the planning horizon can only be short,

although the development of the fuel and energy

complex requires a long-term vision.

We need systemic transformations in the energy

sector, which include a wide range of issues related to

demonopolization and the creation of a competitive

environment, the liberalization of economic life,

institutional and structural changes aimed at moving

away from the raw material development model, and

the integration of the energy sector into the system of

world economic relations.

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Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them