The Energy Aspect of the Transition to Environmentally Safe

Vehicles in Russia

Irina Belik

1,2

, Tamila Alikberova

and Natalia Starodubets

Ural State University of Railway Transport, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Ural Federal University Named After the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation

Keywords: Environmentally friendly vehicles, environmental pollution reduction, energy consumption, monetary and

non-monetary measures, energy risks, projection of the development of electric vehicles.

Abstract: The article considers the main energy risks of the transition of the Russian transport sector to an

environmentally safe type of motor transport. Numerous studies related to the analysis of the impact of

transport on the environment have confirmed that motor transport is the main source of air pollution not

only in megapolises, but also in large logistics centers, industrial clusters. To solve the problem of air

pollution, the most appropriate way is to replace motor transport with environmentally friendly vehicles,

such as electric cars. However, a wild scale replacement of vehicles with an internal combustion engine

(ICE) with electric cars in megapolises is real, provided that the necessary infrastructure can be created. At

the same time, the policy of replacing traditional cars with ICE raises a question about the increasing

requirements for the environmental purity of energy carriers of motor vehicles. The authors present a

projection of the number of electric cars, on the basis of which the amount of reduction in carbon dioxide

emissions is calculated as well as given a potential estimate of the increase in electricity consumption. As a

result of the study the hidden threats and trends in the transition to environmentally friendly vehicles and the

assessment of the consequences of the introduction of electric cars in Russia were identified.

1 INTRODUCTION

The environmental situation in the Russian

Federation over the past decade indicates that

environmental conditions in the territories

considered to be the most economically developed

remain adverse, and environmental pollution

continues to increase. Many cities in the country

have high average annual levels of air pollution

exceeding sanitary and hygienic standards. The

greatest contribution to the negative impact on air

quality is made by industry and motor transport.

At the moment, limiting the environmental

impact of motor transport is the most significant

problem facing the cities (Jovovic, 2016; Mathew,

2018). In solving this problem, the most important

thing is not only the elimination of the effects of the

impact, but also its prevention or reduction of air

pollution by toxic substances emitted by motor

transport.

The widespread transition from the use of cars

with an internal combustion engine to the use of cars

with an electric engine in industrially developed

countries is still at an early stage, but the world's

largest vehicle manufacturers have already started

mass production of electric cars (for example,

Nissan Leaf, Opel Ampera, Chevrolet Volt,

Mitsubishi iMiEV and others) (Golovanova, 2015).

A number of electric vehicles produced today are

hybrid models, since they use either ICE and electric

engines at the same time, or ICE in addition to

batteries. However, the main long term trend is a

complete rejection of the ICE, and the transition to a

fully electric car, in which an electric motor is used

as an engine, and a battery in one form or another is

used as a power source (Danilov, 2019).

According to the annual "Global Automotive

Executive Survey", published by KPMG, the

growing popularity of electric vehicles demonstrates

a significant change in the automotive industry, as

well as the increasing role of the state. Thus, about

77% of the surveyed managers agree with the

statement that it is the regulatory authorities that will

play a key role in choosing the direction of

development of the automotive industry. State

support is observed in such economically developed

Belik, I., Alikberova, T. and Starodubets, N.

The Energy Aspect of the Transition to Environmentally Safe Vehicles in Russia.

DOI: 10.5220/0011577600003527

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Transport: Logistics, Construction, Maintenance, Management (TLC2M 2022), pages 54-58

ISBN: 978-989-758-606-4

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

countries as the USA, France, Germany, Japan,

China.

The article analyzes the potential risks associated

with the directions of electrification of motor

transport, the dynamics of the current development

of the electric vehicle market in the world and

Russia, and evaluates the prospects until 2035-2040.

Statistical data and data of long-term forecasts of

energy development published by Russian and

international energy organizations (Ministry of

Transport of the Russian Federation; Federal State

Statistics Service) are used for evaluation purposes.

1.1 Current Status and Projection of

the Development of Electric

Vehicles in the World and Russia

Today, the world economy demonstrates the trend of

development of the transport sector in the direction

of production and maintenance of electric vehicles,

which in the future may change its whole basis in

the energy industry. Therefore, we can expect some

additional risks associated with transformation and

variability in the ways of development in the

national energy sector and the petroleum refining

industry.

The global electric vehicle market, even during

the 2020 pandemic, showed a 5% increase,

considering an 18% drop in vehicle sales

(Golovanova, 2015). Three of the ten biggest car

manufacturers (by value) produce only electric

vehicles. Automakers announce new models of

electric cars on a weekly basis and declare the

refusal of ICE. The current situation resembles a

"wave" that has been gaining strength for more than

ten years, and now it is covering the whole world.

More than 20 countries, including European

countries, China, India, Japan, South Korea, etc.,

have already taken measures concerning the

production and marketing of electric vehicles

(Danilov, 2019) In Norway, only electric cars should

be sold from 2025. Other countries plan to

completely displace cars with ICE from the market

for 2030-2040. Probably, by 2030, the majority of

cars imported into Russia will be electric, foreign

markets will be closed for Russian cars with ICE, as

well as roads outside our country (Golovanova,

2018). The fact of the absence of Russian companies

at the stage of formation of the electric vehicle

market may be the cause of the loss of this market.

Foreign experience shows that most countries

use forms of support, such as the demand of private

buyers of commercial organisations for electric cars.

In particular, monetary and non-monetary measures

to support owners of electric vehicles stand out.

Monetary measures include subsidies or tax

deductions provided when buying an electric car.

Non–monetary ones include the right of way on bus-

only lanes, toll roads, quotas, incentive support

measures, etc.

According to the IEA projection, the number of

electric vehicles will increase by about 50% per year

and will reach 30 million units by 2025, and by 2040

it will exceed 150 million units (Fig.1).

Figure 1: Projection of the growth dynamics of electric

vehicles in the world (World Energy Council Regency

House. 2011).

In comparison with the leading countries in the

application of green technologies in transportation,

Russia is still lagging behind. According to the

experts (Romanov, 2017), in the Russian realities,

the most promising areas of transport development

are resources based on natural gas and electricity.

The Russian Federation is currently inferior to

the leading countries in the application of green

technologies in relation to motor transport.

According to many experts, resources based on

natural gas and electricity can become promising

areas for the development of road transport in

Russia.

It is obvious that without the creation of an

appropriate infrastructure, it is impossible to develop

electric vehicles in Russia, the elements of which are

electric charging stations, electric car maintenance

and repair services, diagnostic centers (World

Energy Council Regency House. 2011). In addition,

to stimulate this process, it is necessary to adopt a

national program with clear deadlines and targets,

taking into account the specifics of the regions.

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

Transportation is one of the key components of the

economy, which also has a significant impact on the

development of the oil and gas industry. Thus, more

The Energy Aspect of the Transition to Environmentally Safe Vehicles in Russia

than 60% of the total demand for petroleum products

is formed by the transport sector (Mathew, 2018).

Currently, the automotive industry is going through

structural changes regarding the introduction of

hybrid powerplants and electric vehicles. These

changes will lead to a transformation in the

consumption of petroleum products in the medium

term (World Energy Council Regency House. 2011).

Therefore, the issues associated with assessing the

prospects for the development of road transport in

the regions of Russia from the point of view of the

impact of energy risks are becoming increasingly

relevant.

In most developed European countries, the

desired level of provision of the population with

road motor vehicles is 400-600 cars per 1000 people

(Golovanova, 2018). In Russia, in almost all regions,

the level of motorization is far from this level. On

average, there are 301 cars per 1,000 people in

Russia (Figure 2).

Figure 2: The number of cars per 1000 people in the

federal districts of Russia [data from the Federal State

Statistics Service].

The authors have made a projection of the

number of vehicles per capita until 2035 (Table 1).

The fleet of electric cars was calculated considering

the availability of cars per 1,000 people and the

share of electric cars in the total fleet of vehicles.

For electric cars, it was determined using data

adopted in the Strategy for the Development of the

Automotive Industry of the Russian Federation for

the period up to 2025, taking into account the

dynamics of their development.

Table 1 shows a projected assessment of the

possible consequences of the widespread

introduction of electric vehicles in Russia. Projection

data on emissions and dynamics of specific fuel (gas

and coal) consumption for electricity production

were used in calculations of the environmental effect

and the volume of possible reduction of greenhouse

gas emissions.

Table 1: Assessment of electricity demand and reduction

of greenhouse gas emissions during the introduction of

electric transport in Russia [data from the Ministry of

Transport of the Russian Federation and the Federal State

Statistics Service].

Indicator Indicator by year

2025 2030 2035

Projection of electricity

consumption, billion

kWh

1220 1285 1340

Number of cars per 1000

eople

345 396 456

Percentage of electric

vehicles, %

5 8 12

The total number of

vehicles, million units.

52 60 69

including the fleet of

electric vehicles, million

units.

2,6 4,8 8,28

Reduction of CO2

emissions, million tons

er yea

2 13 17

Increase in electricity

consum

tion, TWh

4 27 36

Based on the forecast for the number of electric

vehicles (10-13 million units in 2030-2035), it can

be expected that the volume of CO2 in the air will

decrease by 13-17 million tons per year. At the same

time, latent threats associated with additional

electricity consumption do not create a problem

situation, since the increase in electricity demand

will be 27-36 TWh (considering battery charging).

The calculations show that about 2.2 to 2.7%

([increase in electricity consumption / projection of

electricity consumption] * 100%) of the total final

electricity consumption will be consumed from the

Russian energy system in 2030-2035 under the

initial scenario of energy supply. According to the

authors, such an increase in electricity consumption

does not pose a serious issue for the country's

electricity industry in the long term.

The ability of the Russian energy system to adapt

to the growth of electricity consumption by the

automotive sector is another possible risk,

considering the degree of differentiation of the

regions by the number of vehicles, which in the long

term may slow down the growth of the share of

electric cars.

However, in accordance with the projection of

additional energy consumption (Table.1), as well as

under the condition of continuous improvement of

energy efficiency of road transport, It can be noted

TLC2M 2022 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CONFERENCE TLC2M TRANSPORT: LOGISTICS,

CONSTRUCTION, MAINTENANCE, MANAGEMENT

that in this segment, the country is able to adapt to

the transition to electric vehicles over a ten-year

period.

That would also facilitate by the transition to

more cost-effective alternative energy sources.

According to the estimated values (World Energy

Council Regency House, 2011; ERI RAS, 2013;

Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com), the

transition to alternative sources by 2040 will entail a

reduction in energy consumption by road transport

from 65.9 million toe to 62.3 million toe (Table 2).

Table 2: Projection of energy consumption by motor

transport, million toe (World Energy Council Regency

House. 2011).

Federal

district

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Central 16,9 16,7 16,5 16,2 15,9

Northwestern 7,5 7,4 7,3 7,2 7,1

Southern 7,3 7,2 7,1 7,0 6,8

North

Caucasian

1,5 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,4

Volga 13,5 13,4 13,2 13,0 12,9

Ural 6,9 6,9 6,8 6,7 6,5

Siberian 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,9 8,8

Far Eastern 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8

Russia 65,9 65,2 64,3 63,4 62,3

The transition to alternative types of energy

carriers, mainly electricity, will lead to a decrease in

the consumption of hydrocarbons (gasoline and

diesel fuel), and consequently to a change in the

model of energy supply to the transport sector.

Obviously, there will be subsequent changes in such

dependent indicators: fuel and electricity prices,

capital investments, fuel and electricity

consumption, etc.

Strictly speaking, the conversion of vehicles to

electricity will cause the modernization of the

Russian energy system and it is important that this

process takes place due to the growth of the share of

clean electricity gained from renewable energy

sources, and that is the best scenario.

3 RESULTS

The viability of transition to an environmentally

friendly transport can be found from the perspective

of assessing the success of the governmental

measures to support and develop the industry:

stimulating the production and sales of electric

vehicles; formation of the domestic market of

electric vehicles; stimulating the development of

electricity gained from renewable energy sources,

subsidizing the modernization of the energy system,

etc.

The research considered only one side of the

issue related to the assessment of the need for

additional energy resources during the transition of

vehicles to electricity. As it turned out, the expected

increase in the volume of additional demand for

electricity does not pose a big threat to the energy

system, the load increase will be 27-36 TWh.

The calculations did not take into account the

tendency to reduce the consumption of oil and

petroleum products used for the production of motor

fuel due to an increase in the consumption of natural

gas used for electricity generation, therefore, the

total amount of carbon dioxide emissions reduction

will be even greater as a result.

Another positive result should also be taken into

account, due to the fact that the transition from ICE

to electric engines reduces the emission of pollutants

into the air, preventing damage to the environment

and preserving its acceptable quality. A positive

impact of the transition to electric vehicles is also

the reduction of heat and noise pollution in

megapolises, which reaches thresholds in present

day processes of urbanization.

4 CONCLUSIONS

It is obvious that in the future, traditional cars

new alternative fuels and energy. In Russia, the

conversion of the car fleet to electric ones will cause

an increase in demand for electricity and its decrease

in motor fuel, as a consequence. However, the

projected estimates show that the rapid development

of electric vehicles over the long term and the

growth of their share in the total fleet of cars in the

country do not pose a serious issue for the electricity

generation sector of our country. This will be

possible thanks to the effective implementation of

green energy carriers for transport, which will

change the dynamics of energy prices.

The research demonstrated that in the medium

term, hybrid cars will occupy a large part of the

electric vehicle market, and plug-in vehicles will

remain in the premium segment of the market for a

ten-year period and will be present on the urban

roadways. However, in the long term, the main

efforts of the developers of new technologies will be

focused towards electric vehicles due to their

environmental and economic benefits.

The Energy Aspect of the Transition to Environmentally Safe Vehicles in Russia

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research was supported by the Russian Science

Foundation and Government of Sverdlovsk region,

Joint Grant No 22-28-20453 «An integrated

approach to the processes of economy

decarbonization: the formation of regional policy».

https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-20453/.

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