Monitoring, Forecasting and Strategic Planning as a Means of

Effective Management of the Processes of Training Specialists in a

Transport University

Natalia Valeryevna Kalganova

Ural State University of Railway Transport, Ekaterinburg, Russia

Keywords: Monitoring, forecasting, strategic planning, process management, training of specialists, transport university.

Abstract: The article deals with the issues of monitoring, forecasting and strategic planning in a transport university.

The dialectical relationship between these issues and improving the efficiency of the educational process is

analyzed, the role of forecasting, monitoring and strategic planning as important processes and tools in

managing the quality of education at the university is revealed. In his study, the author relied on the works of

domestic scientists, in particular (Morozova, 2003; Erich, 1974; Kochkarov, 2006; Utkina, 1998). Monitoring,

forecasting and planning are important elements of managing all university processes that are a research

process. Thus, forecasting studies strategic problems, achievement of target results, the most likely

consequences of decisions made, and analysis and use of the results developed in the process of monitoring,

forecasting, planning and designing the training of engineering personnel for a certain period from 5 years to

30 years. The revealed information serves to develop options, a scenario for predicting the further

development of a transport university, making managerial decisions, assessing changes and preventing the

occurrence of negative phenomena.

1 INTRODUCTION

The processes of monitoring, forecasting and

planning are important elements of management not

only for each higher education institution, but for the

entire higher education system of the country, which

is confirmed by the governing documents (Consultant

plus, www.consultant.ru; Contour standard,

normativ.kontur.ru; Judicial and regulatory acts of the

Russian Federation, sudact.ru; Official Internet portal

of legal information, publication.pravo.gov.ru). The

fundamentals define the goals, objectives and main

directions of the state policy in the field of strategic

planning, as well as the mechanisms for

implementing this policy, emphasize the relationship

between the achievement of goals by methods of

forecasting, modeling, indicative planning, balance

calculations and information technology to develop a

system for monitoring and controlling strategic

planning processes.

The main purpose of this work is to determine the

most optimal methods of monitoring, forecasting and

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4117-8329

strategic planning based on the principles of a

systematic approach aimed at regularly assessing the

main processes of educational activities and the

prospects for the development of a transport

university, including scientific and pedagogical

personnel, material and technical base and other types

of activities of the university aimed at effective

management of the quality of training specialists for

the transport industry.

2 MONITORING AS A MEANS

OF EFFECTIVE PROCESS

MANAGEMENT IN A

TRANSPORT UNIVERSITY

Monitoring is a constant control, identification and

assessment of the actual state of the education system

and the most important factors that correspond to the

target results of the qualitative and quantitative

characteristics of the transport university processes.

Kalganova, N.

Monitoring, Forecasting and Strategic Planning as a Means of Effective Management of the Processes of Training Specialists in a Transport University.

DOI: 10.5220/0011580900003527

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Transport: Logistics, Construction, Maintenance, Management (TLC2M 2022), pages 163-169

ISBN: 978-989-758-606-4

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

163

Monitoring is the basis for predicting the

development of the education system and regulating

the quality of education when making long-term plans

and management decisions.

The object of monitoring is the quality of

education in a transport university. In the process of

monitoring studies, deep analytical work is carried

out to identify and process a large amount of

information.

The objects of monitoring can be: the educational

process, the academic progress of students, the

formation and development of the teaching staff, the

strengthening of the material and technical base of

universities.

Depending on the selected object of monitoring,

the goals and objectives associated with the

implementation of monitoring in practice are

determined.

Goals are the determining factors of research: a set

of evaluation criteria and indicators is formed on the

basis of the goal, research methods are selected, a

monitoring procedure is built; analysis and further use

of monitoring information are subordinated to goals.

Monitoring objectives are implemented on the

basis of scientifically based principles:

1. The principle of targeting and purposefulness

of taking into account the specifics of the

activities of the department, faculty,

department, branch, staff in the formation of

monitoring indicators, the information

collected correlates with the goals.

2. The principle of objectivity and the possibility

of documentary confirmation of the quality of

data provided by departments.

3. The principle of completeness and continuity,

data collection is carried out continuously and

is aimed at obtaining complete information

about the observed object for a long time in the

form of a permanent or periodic check,

followed by registration of materials.

4. The principle of transparency, openness and

publicity of events and data during monitoring

involves various measures to inform all users

about the information collected during

monitoring.

5. The feedback principle that allows you to make

adjustments to the controlled process. The

implementation of this principle is to

immediately respond to detected problems and

errors.

6. The principle of scientificity and completeness

of information for statistical processing, the use

of reasonable models and tracking parameters.

When organizing and conducting monitoring

studies, a variety of methods are used as ways to

achieve goals. All monitoring methods used can be

divided into the following groups in Table 1.

Table 1: Classification of monitoring methods.

General

scientific

methods

Scientific and

empirical:

Specially-

theoretical

analysis observations system analysis

synthesis comparisons statistical

anal

sis

induction dimension expert

assessments

deduction ex

eriment Del

hi metho

analogy information

and software

data

rocessin

sociological

research

proof score graphical

metho

eneralization the surve

SWOT anal

sis

modelin

testin

ulator

hypotheses and

their

confirmation

polling method formation of a

forecast

To determine the directions for further

development of a transport university, it is necessary

to use a modern method - organizing and conducting

a SWOT analysis of the university. This is a special

kind of expert method that is used in monitoring for

subsequent forecasting and planning.

This methodology can be used in the study of

processes in higher educational institutions, in which

dynamism, controllability, dependence on internal

and external factors of functioning, cyclical

development are considered and taken into account.

To develop a SWOT analysis, the formed team, based

on the main provisions, principles and methods of

monitoring, generates four aspects of SWOT and,

using them, offers options, scenarios for the process

of forming a university development strategy.

Based on the analysis of one of the transport

universities, conducted by the author, a SWOT

analysis was developed in table 2.

When developing predictive indicators in the

plans and programs for the strategic development of

a transport university, it is necessary to provide for

measures aimed at maximizing the impact of

strengths and opportunities on minimizing

(eliminating) weaknesses and threats, i.e. consider the

logical relationship of the matrix (SO) (WT).

In order to monitor the improvement of the quality

of training of specialists, the development of

professional teaching staff, logistics at the university,

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express diagnostics of the main processes and

program documents of the university can be carried

out.

In order to improve the quality of training of

specialists, it is important to conduct a final diagnosis

of the professional readiness of a graduate, which, in

addition to determining the level of socio-

professional knowledge, skills and abilities, includes

a diagnosis of the degree of development of the

qualities necessary for a future specialist.

3 FORECASTING AS THE MOST

IMPORTANT MANAGEMENT

FUNCTION IN A TRANSPORT

UNIVERSITY

The current pace of scientific and technological

progress requires a scientific approach to forecasting

problems. At the end of the twentieth century, there

was a scientific revolution in the field of forecasting.

The end of the 20th century and the current decade

show how the time frames and scales of progress are

radically changing, which makes it especially

necessary to foresee development prospects. At the

same time, scientific and technological progress

should be immediately reflected in educational

programs, especially in the system of higher

education, in particular in the training of engineering

personnel.

The function of foresight, scientific forecasting

not only for the near future, but also for a more distant

future, is an integral element of the management

process.

The urgent need to solve the problems of scientific

forecasting and strategic planning of the socio-

economic development of universities is caused by

the need to participate in solving these problems not

only government agencies, management

organizations, but also prominent scientists. It is

enough to cite the documents (Judicial and regulatory

acts of the Russian Federation, sudact.ru; Official

Table 2: SWOT analysis of one of the transport universities.

Factors of the internal and external environment influencin

the develo

ment of the universit

Strengths

Weak sides W

– high quality of training of specialists

for the transport industry;

– a wide range of transport specialties;

– targeted training of specialists;

– a high level of qualification of the

teaching staff and staff;

– effective management;

– the reputation of the university in the

region;

– distance educational technologies;

- availability of training (acceptable

cost, conditions for admission,

convenient educational process);

– a developed system of career guidance

work of the university;

– organization

international educational cooperation;

– scientific activity of the teaching staff,

a wide range of publications,

preparation and defense of dissertations;

– developed

infrastructure, material and technical

base;

– developed

management system of university

departments;

– high level of publishing activity;

– employment of university graduates.

– lack of budget financing;

– insufficient level of motivation of teaching staff;

– excessive organization of the educational process and educational

and methodological work;

– insufficient

communication with employers;

– low motivation of students;

– lack of a comprehensive offer for the target client;

– template training;

– weak ties with leading Russian universities in terms of attracting

highly qualified teachers;

– absence

material and technical base for scientific research;

– lack of a system of strategic interaction with related companies;

– weak motivation of students, graduate students and teachers for

scientific activity;

– absence centralized management of postgraduate and doctoral

studies;

– association of departments with mixed specialization (there is no

plan for the growth of candidates and doctors of sciences);

– insufficiency of publications in journals included in the list of

Skopus, Web of Science, RUSSIAN SCIENTIFIC CITATION

INDEX;

– skew teaching activities on research;

– participation of teaching staff in grants of various levels;

– a large number of part-time workers among teaching staff;

– a small number of strong technical schools with rich traditions;

– reduction in the number of annual dissertation defenses, incl.

among university staff;

– reduction of the teaching staff from among the young scientists of

the university.

Monitoring, Forecasting and Strategic Planning as a Means of Effective Management of the Processes of Training Specialists in a Transport

University

165

Internet portal of legal information,

publication.pravo.gov.ru; State Duma,

duma.consultant.ru; Morozova, 2003; Erich, 1974;

Kochkarov, 2006; Utkina, 1998), in which, both in

the Decree of the President (Official Internet portal of

legal information, publication.pravo.gov.ru), the

Federal Law (Consultant plus, www.consultant.ru),

and in studies on this topic, the authors (Morozova,

2003; Erich, 1974; Kochkarov, 2006; Utkina, 1998)

give a complete, systematized presentation of

proposals for the development and analysis of

existing experience scientific and technical

forecasting and planning.

The forecasting system is a multi-level structure

based on monitoring results.

Basic principles of forecasting and planning:

– optimality, scientific validity of the planned

solutions in accordance with the selected

criteria;

– balance and proportionality of indicators in

accordance with resource and financial

capabilities;

– allocation of priorities, leading links;

– determination of the time interval («forecast

horizon») for achieving target indicators;

– comparison with similar universities, the

activities of the university and departments;

– continuity, i.e. a combination of long-term and

current plans, continuity, adjustment of

indicators when conditions change;

– substantiation of a backup option (scenario) for

the development of the university, designed to

be implemented in the most unfavorable

conditions.

To determine the directions for further

development of a transport university, it is necessary

to use the methods formulated in the disclosure of the

concept and control functions for subsequent

forecasting and planning.

Table 2: Continued.

Capabilities O Threats T

– formation and dynamism of the list of demanded educational

programs;

– academic mobility at the level of teachers;

– increase in the number of target places with an emphasis on

transport in general and other sectors;

– introduction of a real system for evaluating the effectiveness of

the teaching staff;

– improving the system of remuneration of teachers (including

through additional sources: grants, the federal budget, orders from

large business holdings);

– improving the organization of the educational process (a

combination of traditional and modern forms of education and

types of classes);

– increasing the motivation of students to study;

– equipping classrooms with modern equipment;

– using our own linguistic department to improve the language

competence of teachers and develop international cooperation;

– strengthening communication with employers;

– involvement of representatives of employers in training;

– development of a system of relations between the university and

graduates (lobbying the interests of the university, financing,

moral encouragement, etc.);

– development of programs for the adaptation and retention of

teaching staff, primarily from among young teachers;

– creation of conditions for obtaining a second education and a

second diploma;

– research development

the potential of the teaching staff;

– expansion of the market (expansion of geography) of

educational services both for graduates of educational institutions

and for production workers who wish to undergo retraining,

students of additional education.

– lowering the prestige of the university;

– lack of intrinsic motivation to implement

the strategy;

– liquidation of non-core education that

generates income;

– reduction in the number of defenses of

candidate and especially doctoral

dissertations as a factor in the reduction of

human resources;

– decrease in the number of doctors of

sciences;

– a sudden and sharp decrease in the number

of external part-timers;

– decrease in student enrollment;

– reorientation of transport organizations to

other universities;

– negative state policy in the field of

education for the university;

– decrease in the quality of recruitment of

students (including target ones);

– possible refusal of Russian Railways from

targeted training;

– reduction of budget financing;

– a decrease in demand among the

population for transport specialties, a sharp

reduction in students from among those who

pay the full cost of education;

– closure of a number of specialties.

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In recent years, special methods related to

forecasting have developed especially intensively. In

the monograph (Morozova, 2003), which presents

various (about 100 in total) forecasting methods, as

well as the possibilities and prospects for their use.

Forecasting methods:

1. Intuitive thinking:

– brain attack;

– direct brain attack;

– a method of collecting opinions. Method

«Delphi»;

– The Mendeleev method, which could reveal the

nature and form of interaction between the

elements of the system and their properties, in

particular technologies, before their

identification (invention or refinement), similar

to how the periodic table of chemical elements

was compiled.

2. Exploratory forecasting:

– scenarios;

– iteration;

– historical analogy;

– probabilistic forecasting;

– economic analysis;

– risk assessment;

– statistical models.

3. Normative forecasting:

– resource usage;

– linear programming;

– dynamic programming;

– methods of decision theory;

– System analysis.

4. Methods with feedback:

– integrated information technology systems.

The Delphi long-term forecasting method,

developed by O. Gelmer and his colleagues, has

become widely known abroad. The forecast is carried

out both in the main, priority areas, and in terms of

parameters characterizing the content of the areas:

– in the educational process (indicators of the

quality of training of specialists, digitalization

of all processes in the university, innovative

processes in education, etc.);

– demographic forecasts: the number of

graduates by years of secondary educational

institutions, the plan for entering the university

and graduation;

– dynamics of specialties in the training of

engineering personnel in the region, graduation

plan;

– the dynamics of the teaching staff;

–

scientific sphere (work of graduate and

doctoral students, indicators of dissertation

defenses, grants, number of scientific

laboratories, etc.);

– logistics;

– financial and economic sphere.

A forecast is a set of reasoned assumptions,

expressed in qualitative and quantitative forms,

regarding the future parameters of the educational

system, which is of a probabilistic nature. At the same

time, complex forecasting is considered in different

time periods: as short-term, medium-term and long-

term. One of the conditions for the effectiveness of

the forecasting system is the consistency of forecasts

of different levels of universities of the same profile

of training specialists.

Monitoring, forecasting and planning are

important means of managing university processes,

tools for economic stability and strategic

development of the university. In the case when there

are several ways to implement the plan, scenarios of

possible development are developed.

The forecast horizon is directly related to the

problems of strategic forecasting and designing the

future. Knowing the forecast horizon, one can

estimate what should be measured and how often.

Where, then, are the boundaries of normative

planning? In many cases, they seem to be determined

by the dynamics of the global system of human

society with a deep study of trends.

If long-term normative planning provides for a

new situation in the development of the university,

then it should indicate the time horizon for achieving

these goals. However, this will be an attempt to test

the sufficiency of the university's capabilities to

achieve long-term goals. And if they are not enough,

then forecasting will stimulate the search for new

alternatives, the search for raising funds, and the

mobilization of internal resources.

For forecasting and long-term planning, it is

important to know technologies that affect the main

processes in the educational system, methods of

teaching and mastering knowledge and skills,

assessing the quality of education, and shaping

motivation. A successful forecast should be based on

taking into account all internal and external factors.

4 STRATEGIC PROGRAM AS A

BASIS FOR EFFECTIVE

MANAGEMENT OF

UNIVERSITY DEVELOPMENT

Planning is a hierarchical process of forming

preliminary decisions in the management system that

Monitoring, Forecasting and Strategic Planning as a Means of Effective Management of the Processes of Training Specialists in a Transport

University

167

determines the order with the sequence of individual

events. Depending on the duration of the time

interval, there are short-term, medium-term and long-

term planning. To create a system of regulation of all

processes in the university, it is necessary to develop

a planning and forecasting system and a system of

scientific monitoring;

The system of scientific monitoring, SWOT

analysis, conclusions and indicators based on the

results of the development of forecasting directions

will make it possible to prevent omissions,

weaknesses that can lead to crisis phenomena of a

different nature.

These studies will determine:

– strategic goals of activity and indicators

(indicators) that they intend to achieve, taking

into account the strategy of the Ministry, the

Federal Agency for Railway Transport for the

medium and long term;

– the main tasks through the solution of which

the set strategic goals and the specific areas of

activity corresponding to them are realized;

– intradepartmental and interdepartmental

targeted and other programs, through which the

implementation of certain areas of activity and

the solution of the main tasks are ensured.

Focusing on strategy can help institutions operate

more effectively, make evidence-based decisions,

and set the course for a sustainable future, by

following these guidelines:

– analyze and make decisions regarding the

development of the university, taking into

account the mechanisms that connect all

departments of the university and are

influenced by external factors;

– when developing a strategy, the university

should not be in the role of a passive observer

of external influences, but should develop

measures to manage the external environment

to achieve its own benefit;

– the most important condition for economic

stability and development of the university is

the effective use of finances, savings and cost

reduction.

– redistribution of internal resources, focusing

them on priority areas;

– termination of a non-priority direction that is

not provided with resources, or their

reorientation;

– development of cooperation, partnership, joint

ventures, etc.;

– development of a motivation system for all

university employees;

– constant attention to the dynamic solution of

social problems, such as: raising the living

standards of workers, raising the level of

qualifications, improving the quality of

working life, etc.

Strategy as a field of activity can open up great

opportunities for universities. Taking into account the

experience of a number of universities and theoretical

developments in the field of strategic planning

(Kochkarov, 2006; Utkina, 1998), when formulating

a strategy in Table. 3, the following potentially

important issues should be considered.

The strategy is developed and implemented

through a collective and focused effort. However,

once a strategic program is in place, schools still need

plans to put their strategies into practice. Institutions

must first formulate a strategy and then develop

operational plans to implement the policy provisions

of these statements.

The implementation of plans and projects requires

very significant budget expenditures. It is important

to ensure the sufficiency of these funds for the

implementation of the tasks of the projects, the

effective management of these funds, the possibility

of additional attraction of non-state resources,

provided that the scale is expanded and additional

results are obtained. The allocation of funds for the

implementation of plans and projects must be

justified and carefully calculated.

5 CONCLUSIONS

The article argumentatively shows that monitoring,

forecasting and planning are important elements of

management of all university processes. These

controls represent a research process. So, forecasting

studies strategic problems, the achievement of target

results, the most likely consequences of decisions

taken, as well as the analysis and use of the results of

targets developed in the monitoring process.

Monitoring is a constant monitoring, assessment of

the actual state of the education system, compliance

of the target results with the qualitative and

quantitative characteristics of the development of the

university.

The function of foresight, scientific forecasting is

an integral element of the management process.

An analysis of the experience of a number of

transport universities showed the particular

importance of the strategic planning process, the

formation of preliminary decisions in the

management system. It should be emphasized that

planning is a tool for purposeful management of the

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sustainability and strategic development of

universities, adjustment of approved plans.

REFERENCES

Official site Consultant plus,

http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_

140174/.

Official site Contour standard,

https://normativ.kontur.ru/document?moduleId=1&do

cumentId=332217.

Official site Judicial and regulatory acts of the Russian

Federation, https://sudact.ru/law/postanovlenie-

pravitelstva-rf-ot-05082013-n-662/.

Official website Official Internet portal of legal

information,

http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/00012

02111080023.

Official website of the State Duma,

https://duma.consultant.ru/documents/1163340.

Morozova, T. G., Pikulkin A. V., 2003. Forecasting and

planning in market conditions, p. 279.

Erich, J., Gvishiani D. M., 1974. Forecasting scientific and

technological progress, p. 585.

Kochkarov, R. A., 2006. Strategic planning and forecasting.

Bulletin of the Financial Academy, 4, pp. 97-109.

Utkina, E. A., 1998. Strategic planning, p. 440.

Table 3: Flowchart for the development of the University Strategic Development Program.

Source and guidance

documents (external)

Stages of development Source and guidance documents

(internal)

National Strategy for

Higher Education and

Science.

Railway development

strategy transport in the

Russian Federation and