Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow

Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of

Longkou City, Shandong Province

Lei Qiu

, Ting Wang

and Jingyi Huang

Management Science Institute of Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

15852932783@163.com

Keywords: Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Coast, Seawater Intrusion, Water Resources, Adaptive Management, System

Dynamics Model.

Abstract:

In the role of nature - society dual driving force, the problems of groundwater intrusion and deterioration of

water quality in the Coastal Areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are becoming more and more serious,

which hinder the sustainable development of economy and society. In the face of increasingly complex water

resources problems, water resources management should be more flexible and adaptable. Based on the three

dimensions of exposure-sensitivity-adaptability, this paper constructs a SD model of "adaptability" and

determines the regulatory factors according to the combination of regional policy and economic structure,

etc.,then designs the water - saving - oriented water resource adaptability management policy scenario,

conducts quantitative evaluation with Longkou City as an example , and makes policy suggestions for the

water resource adaptability management in the coastal areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. This study

provides a new solution to the problem of seawater intrusion, and provides a new theoretical support and

practical basis for water resource adaptation policies.

1 INTRODUCTION

With the increasing contradiction between the goals

of economic development and groundwater

exploitation, the hydrodynamic balance between

seawater and fresh water has been destroyed. It leads

to the decline of groundwater level and a series of

water ecological problems, especially in the coastal

areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, where the

water resources are scarce and groundwater

overexploitation intensity is large. Therefore, in

order to realize the sustainable development of

economy, society and ecology in the coastal areas,

measures must be taken to strengthen the water

resources management in the coastal areas of the

Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, especially the

groundwater management (Zhong, 2019), to

implement the strictest water resources management

system.

Adaptive management originated from Holling, a

ecologists in 1978 (HOLLING, 1978), who studies

the practice of complex ecosystems, and puts

forward adaptive management as the management

framework to solve complex systems. Whipple

(WHIPPLE, 1998), Werrity (WERRITTY, 2002),

Middelkoop (MIDDELKOOP, 2001), and a number

of foreign scholars have discussed the restoration of

watershed, wetland and coastal areas, the use of

water-saving irrigation technology, flood early

warning and dispatching technology and other

management techniques and methods from the

perspective of adaptability. Domestic scholars

innovatively put forward adaptive management

theory and use adaptive management method to carry

out empirical analysis. Based on the uncertainty of

system management, Tong Jinping and Wang

Huimin (Tong, 2006; Wang, 2016)

think

adaptive

management realizes system health and sustainable

management of resources. Xia Jun et al

(Xia, 2015)

puts forward the theory and method of water

resources adaptability combining multi-information

analysis and decision-making under climate change.

Based on the CGE model, Li Changyan (Li, 2014)

brought

the vulnerability of water resources into the

framework of water resources adaptive management,

compiled the SAM table, and constructed policy

Qiu, L., Wang, T. and Huang, J.

Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of Longkou City, Shandong Province.

DOI: 10.5220/0011755200003607

In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology (ICPDI 2022), pages 699-705

ISBN: 978-989-758-620-0

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

699

simulations under different scenarios for

comparative analysis to study the adaptive

management ability of water resources.

Comprehensive analysis of relevant studies at home

and abroad shows that, on the one hand, the challenge

of adaptive management of water resources is mainly

due to the uncertainty of the external environment, so

adaptive management policies are according to the

characteristics of regional development. It is

beneficial to reduce the vulnerability of water

resources. On the other hand, the adaptive

management of water resources in China is mostly

from the perspective of climate change, but there are

few studies on the adaptive management of water

resources under seawater intrusion. Therefore, this

paper constructs the analysis framework of water

resources adaptive management system, sets the

policy scenario, analyses which policy can improve

the contradiction between water supply and demand

and ecological environment, promotes economic

development, alleviates the economic and social

water use dilemma, and provides the theoretical and

methodological basis for regional water resources

adaptive management analysis.

2 ANALYSIS OF WATER

RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

China's coastal areas have superior geographical

location and dense population. More than 70% of

large and medium-sized cities gathered here. With

the rapid economic and social development of coastal

areas, there are great differences of precipitation

from temporal and spatial in coastal areas. Surface

water can no longer meet the increasing economic

and social development needs. People continue to

extract groundwater, resulting in a continuous

decline in groundwater level. Sea water invades

freshwater aquifers and pollutes groundwater

sources, making limited groundwater resources more

scarce. The Mainland coastline of our country

stretches for 19000 km. The seawater intrusion

mainly occurs in the coastal areas with large amount

of groundwater resources exploitation, such as

Shandong, Tianjin and other places. After the

seawater intrusion was discovered in Dalian coastal

area in 1964, it was discovered in other provinces in

the late 1970s. During 2014, the total area of

seawater intrusion in China exceeded 2000 km2,

which caused damage and loss to groundwater

ecological environment and local economic

development. The seawater intrusion in the coastal

area makes the groundwater quality deteriorate. At

the same time, it reduces the groundwater

availability, destroys the production and living

equipment, and brings serious influence to the

industrial and agricultural production and the

people's life in the coastal area. The coastal area of

the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea is located in the plain.

The land is fertile. The industry and agriculture are

more developed. At present, due to the invasion of

seawater, the water quality deteriorates and causes

soil salinization. Most farmland reduces production

by 20%~40%, which reduces the supply capacity of

water resources and restricts the development of

regional industry and agriculture. On the one hand,

the unreasonable groundwater overexploitation

causes the groundwater level to decrease greatly, the

hydrodynamic balance between seawater and fresh

water is destroyed, and the vulnerability of water

resources is obvious. On the other hand, seawater

intrusion makes groundwater quality worse and

supply capacity weakened, which leads to

salinization of cultivated land and the enhancement

of water resources vulnerability, that restricts the

sustainable development of economy and society.

Therefore, in order to maximize social welfare,

water users and relevant government departments

adopt economic and non-economic means to adapt

water resources policies, such as open source, water

and pollution control, and industrial structure

adjustment to adjust social structure, industrial

structure, and social function, alleviate the

contradiction of water resources, improve the

vulnerability of water resources, and promote

sustainable regional economic and social

development from the demand side and supply side,

as well as the combination of long-term and short-

term approaches. In the case of clarifying the water

resources problems, the adaptive policies of

designing different schemes are incorporated into the

SD model. Different policy scenario effects are

adjusted and controlled by controlling the response

variables.

3 CONSTRUCTION OF SD

MODEL FOR ADAPTIVE

WATER RESOURCES

MANAGEMENT

Using the relationship between water resources

supply and demand, economic development and

population growth as the medium, maintaining the

interrelation of various elements within the whole

ICPDI 2022 - International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology

700

Figure 1: System Flow Chart.

system, forming an organic whole that restricts each

other, using Vensim software to design the SD model

of water resources adaptive management, in which

the variables such as GDP added value, population

quantity, water shortage index and so on combine the

system organically. Water demand for production and

life and water availability determine the water

scarcity index. By exerting pressure on the population

growth rate and GDP growth rate, water scarcity

index influences the economic and social operation,

thus coupling with the economic and social system

and influencing each other, as shown in figure 1. As

for the parameters in the model, on the one hand, they

are sorted out, analysed and calculated according to

the water resources bulletin and statistical yearbook

over the years; on the other hand, data are processed

according to mathematical calculation method,

arithmetic average method and table function

method, etc. For difficult-to-obtain data or to predict

the future change trend of the dependent variable, on

the one hand, according to the development control of

population and economic growth in the 13th Five-

Year Plan and other scholars' relevant literature

research, on the other hand, regression analysis

method is adopted to fit and comparing the simulated

data and real data, so that the parameters in the system

run more fit the real data.

EVIDENCE-BASED RESEARCH

Longkou City has rapid economic development,

dense population and serious groundwater over

mining. With rapid economic development and

surface water resources being insufficient, the two

key monitoring rivers in Longkou City cut, increasing

the demand for groundwater freshwater resources,

resulting in further expansion of seawater invasion

scope, that restricted agricultural development. Some

farmers have suffered heavy losses. It can be

predicted that a series of problems caused by the

future water shortage and the uncertainty of the

external environment will still restrict the economic

and social development of Longkou City. Taking

Longkou City as an example, taking water saving as

the goal, establishing water - saving society, using SD

model to simulate water resources adaptability

management, and discuss the impact of different

policies on water resources vulnerability, so as to

provide ideas for policy makers. According to the

present situation of economic and social development

of Longkou City, this paper formulates the adaptive

management target of water resources in Longkou

City by 2030 from five schemes. The adaptive

management ability of water resources was

investigated from the aspects of GDP added value,

total water demand, available water supply, balance

between supply and demand, sewage discharge, etc.

Specific policy scenario programmes are shown in

tables 1 below:

Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of

Longkou City, Shandong Province

701

Table 1: Design of policy options for adaptive management of water resources.

Programme Content

Programme I

Current status

continuation

Taking the situation of water resources and economic development

of Longkou City in the past ten years (2008-2017), combined with

the outline of the Thirteenth five-year Master Plan for National

Economic and Social Development of Longkou City, setting 2017

as base year, the simulation is carried out according to the present

situation.

Programme II Open Source

On the basis of scheme one, increase the water transfer of South-to-

North Water transfer. In this paper, according to the 2017 water

regulation, a certain amount of water regulation is added each year

to simulate, and the maximum adjustable water quantity is

controlled according to the maximum adjustable water quantity of

Longkou.Therefore , the regulation variable of " South - to - North

Water Diversion Project " is introduced to increase the water

adjustment of 1.5 million m

every yea

Programme III

Streaming Pollution

Control Type

The Streaming Pollution Control Type mainly includes two aspects:

throttling and pollution control. By improving water efficiency of

water resources, this paper adjusts the water consumption of ten

thousand yuan industrial added value to 7 m

The effective

utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation was adjusted to 0.75,

and the effect of water price on demand was adjusted to 0.95. The

reuse rate of water resources sewage is 40% . The water supply of

reclaimed water resources is increased.

Programme IV Industrial restructuring

In the economic development of Longkou City, industry is pillar

industry, and it belongs to high water consumption and high

pollution industry. Therefore, on the basis of scheme one, this paper

reduces the proportion of industry to 49%, increases the proportion

of service industry, and optimizes the industrial structure.

Programme V Integrated

Synthesizing the above four schemes, consider increasing income,

reducing expenditure, pollution control and industrial structure

ustment.

The parameters of the five control variables are shown in Table 2:

Table 2: Policy scenarios and parameters for adaptive management of water resources.

Variable

Programme

III

Programme

The amount of water transferred from south

to north water diversion project (million m

)

0 150 0 0 150

Water consumption per ten thousand yuan of

industrial added value (m

)

9 9 7 9 7

Efficient utilization coefficient of farmland

irrigation (%)

70 70 75 70 75

Sewage recovery rate (%) 25 25 40 25 40

Water price regulation factor 1 1 0.95 1 0.95

The proportion of industrial added value (%) 54 54 54 49 49

By comparing the simulation value of the model

with the real data, this paper selects the GDP and

population as the test variables to judge whether the

model can truly reflect the actual situation of

Longkou City. As shown in tables 3 and 4, the

simulation errors of GDP and population are within

a reasonable range of 10%, which indicates that the

model can better fit the actual situation of economic

and social development in Longkou City.

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702

Table 3: GDP Parameter Test for Model .

Unit: $100 million

Year GDP simulated values GDP actual value

Error

2008 531 570 0.068 4

2009 590.63 623 0.052 0

2010 670.99 680 0.013 2

2011 754.38 778 0.030 4

2012 845.31 840 -0.006 3

2013 933.13 935 0.002 0

2014 1 029.40 1 002.8 -0.026 5

2015 1 088.55 1 035 -0.051 7

2016 1 160.36 1 110 -0.045 4

2017 1 253.52 1 190.935 8 -0.052 6

Table 4: Demographic parameters of the model.

Unit :10 000

Year Population simulation values Actual population Error

2008 63.44 63.44 0

2009 63.43 63.38 -0.000 79

2010 63.38 63.3 -0.001 30

2011 63.36 63.4 0.000 63

2012 63.32 63.49 0.002 74

2013 63.33 63.54 0.003 24

2014 63.29 63.53 0.003 78

2015 63.46 63.7 0.003 71

2016 63.40 63.63 0.003 54

2017 63.49 63.69 0.003 07

Table 5: Results of 5 programme simulation variables in 2030.

Variable Programme I Programme II Programme III Programme IV Programme V

GDP added value (RMB 1 0 0 million) 2 013.68 2 145.30 2 142.62 2 046.76 2 286.38

Total water demand (million m

) 19 047.83 19 690.32 16 958.34 18 288.29 16 967.32

Total water supply (million m

) 11 993.64 13 967.45 12 376.14 11 936.96 14 233.54

Difference between supply and demand

(million m

)

7 054.18 5 722.87 4 582.20 6 351.32 2 733.78

quantity of wastewater effluent (million m

) 1 978.82 2 086.41 1 640.36 1 855.79 1 601.26

Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of

Longkou City, Shandong Province

703

According to the reasonable prediction of

Longkou city's regional development, the 13th Five-

Year Plan, water conservancy planning, and related

measurement software, the results of the change of

other variables caused by policy changes are

analysed. The five schemes are simulated and the

forecast results of Longkou City in 2030 are shown in

Table 5.

By comparing the simulation results of the four

schemes with the current scheme one, it is found that

as long as the economy is developed, the water

demand will inevitably increase. The simulation

results of different policy scenarios are analysed as

follows:

The first scheme is the future water requirements

under current development conditions. The gap

between supply and demand is increasing and the

discharge of waste water is rising rapidly. Compared

with the other four schemes GDP the added value is

the lowest. The pressure of water resource will further

increase.

The second scheme is from the supply side, using

the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, giving

priority to the use of overseas water and protecting

the local water resources environment, which is

superior to the fourth scheme, indicating that the

industrial adjustment can not be realized in the short

term and the demand for water resources is high, so

the water conservancy project should play a good

role.

Compared with the first two schemes, the

economic and social water demand of the third

scheme the least, the waste water discharge is less, the

waste sewage discharge and the total water storage

are lower than the second scheme. The overall

implementation effect is higher than the second

scheme.

The GDP added value of the forth scheme is only

higher than that of the first scheme, the short-term

effect is not good and the economy is impacted. The

demand for water resources is still very strong in the

short term.

The fifth scheme is a comprehensive scheme, the

results are better than other schemes, which can not

only alleviate the shortage of supply and demand to a

certain extent, but also develop economy with the

condition of protecting ecological environment.

5 CONCLUSIONS

According to the theoretical basis of SD model and

water resources adaptive management, this paper

constructs the framework of water resources adaptive

management. According to the regional development,

the "exposure-sensitivity-adaptability" analysis of

water resources is regarded as an important reference

standard for adaptive management regulators, and

five different water resources adaptive management

policy schemes are designed by using the SD model.

The simulation results show that on the one hand, we

should make a policy "combination fist" through

system construction. It is necessary to make full use

of the "invisible hand" and "tangible hand" of the

market and the state, combine short-term with long-

term, make joint efforts on the demand side and the

supply side. At the same time, it should give full play

to the power of science and technology to

continuously improve the utilization rate of water

resources and social development.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

China's key R & D Program Project "Research on

Comprehensive Prevention and Management of Sea

Water Invasion in the Coastal Region of Bohai and

Yellow Sea "(Grant No.:2016 YFC0402808)

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