To show the calibration results clearer, in figure
10, we exhibit the best-fit of Lorentz transition
distribution with the high frequency crude oil future
SC2209 during the period from May 11, 2022, to
August 4, 2022 with different time interval โt=1, 10,
30, 60, 80, 100 minutes, respectively. As can be seen
in figure 10, the Lorentz transition probability
distribution describes well the price variation
distribution of crude oil future SC2209.
Figure 10: The best-fit of the probability density
distributions P
๏บ
Z
โ๎ญฒ
๏ป
of price variation for the crude oil
future SC2209 with time interval โt=1, 10, 30, 60, 80, 100
minutes with ฮณ = 0.012, and ฯ=0.005463.
4 CONCLUDING REMARKS
With the deepening of the financialization of the oil
market, the importance of the oil futures market is
highlighted. The high volatility of crude oil futures
prices inevitably has a major influence on global
financial markets and the healthy development of
world economy. Therefore, modelling accurately
and estimating the volatility of crude oil futures
prices has important theoretical and practical
significance for investors and for preventing energy
market risks. In this paper, we study the distribution
of high- frequency crude oil futures price changes.
Many empirical studies have shown that the
distribution of financial assetsโ price changes has
fatter tail than lognormal distribution. Various
efforts have been made to improve the modelling of
financial assetsโ price variations. In particular, many
scholars have paid special attention to the power-law
tail and scaling property of the price variation
distributions. In this paper, we try to model the
leptokurtic distribution of high frequency crude oil
futures using a combination of transition probability
distribution and Lorentz stable distribution. The
newly built model has fatter tail than log-normal
distributions. Using high frequency data of crude oil
future in Chinaโs future market, we calibrate our
theoretical model and have proved the consistency
of our theoretical model with the real market.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We appreciate Prof. Xiang-Bin Yan for useful
discussions and encouragements. This work was
supported by the China Postdoctoral Science
Foundation (Grant No.2021M700398).
REFERENCES
Ballocchi, G., Dacorogna, M. M., Gencay, R., and
Piccinato, B. (1999). Intraday statistical properties of
Eurofutures. Derivatives Quarterly, 6: 28-44.
Black, F. and Scholes, M.,(1973). The pricing of options
and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy,
81: 637-659.
Blanc, P. Chicheportiche, R., and Bouchaud, J. P. (2014).
The fine structure of volatility feedback II: Overnight
and intra-day effects. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics
and its Applications, 402: 58-75.
Bollerslev,T.(1986). Generalized Autoregressive
Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of
Econometrics, 31(3): 307-327.
Bouchaud J. P. and Potters, M. (2003). Theory of
Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing: from
Statistical Physics to Risk Management . Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 2nd edition.
Bouchaud, J. P. (2000). Power-laws in economy and
finance: some ideas from physics,
https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0008103v1.
Chicheportiche R. and Bouchaud, J. P. (2014). The fine-
structure of volatility feedback I: Multi-scale self-
reflexivity. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its
Applications, 410: 174-195.
Dumas, B. Fleming, J., and Whaley, R. (1998). Implied
volatility functions: empirical tests. Journal of
Finance, 53(6) : 2059-2106.
Dyson, F. J. (1949). The radiation theories of Tomonaga,
Schwinger, and Feynman. Phys. Rev. 75: 486-502.
Engle R. F. and Patton, A.J. (2001). What good is a
Volatility Model? Quantitative Finance, (2) :237-245.
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional
heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of
United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4): 987-
1007.
Fouque, J. P. Papanicolaou G., and Sircar, R.(2000).
Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility. International
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 3(1):
101-142.