Research on Rural Tourism Promoting Regional High Quality

Development based on ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Guangshan

County, Xinyang City

Jiaqi Ma

School of Management, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, China

Keywords: Python, Time Series Analysis, Rural Revitalization, Rural Tourism.

Abstract: The report points out that the issue of agricultural and rural farmers is a fundamental issue related to the

national economy and the people's livelihood. We must always give top priority to solving the "three rural

issues" in the Party's work. The implementation of the rural revitalization strategy can effectively promote the

interaction between urban and rural areas, make cities and villages closely linked and develop harmoniously,

and also lay a solid foundation for the construction of beautiful villages. As a form of tourism rising in recent

years, rural tourism can inject vitality into the prosperity and development of rural areas, make rural economic

conditions develop rapidly, and open up a new way for farmers to increase their own income. At present,

under the important background of rural revitalization, how to promote the development of rural tourism in

China is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first uses Python to predict the number of tourists and

tourism income of Xinyang City from 2011 to 2021 in a 3-year time series, and then uses SWOT method to

analyse the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of rural tourism development in Xinyang. Taking

Dongyue Village of Guangshan County as an example, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to

promote the development of rural tourism, such as establishing the brand awareness of rural tourism

development, strengthening infrastructure construction, and developing rural tourism featured products.

1 INTRODUCTION

For a long time, the leadership of the Central

Committee of the Communist Party of China has

attached great importance to the problems in the rural

economy. Solving the "three rural issues" is the focus

of the work of the whole party and society. We

continue to strengthen the implementation of policies

conducive to farmers, actively promote the

construction of a new countryside, comprehensively

and deeply reform the countryside, and achieve the

historic achievements of agricultural and rural

progress, providing important support and

institutional guarantee for opening a new situation in

the new era. As a new type of rural tourism

development mode in the contemporary era, the rural

tourism revitalization and development mode is a

major strategic measure for China to deeply

implement the national characteristic economy rural

tourism revitalization and development project, and

all regions of the country have launched a series of

measures to vigorously develop rural tourism.

(

Buhalis, D., & Law, R. 2008) Xinyang City is located

in the south of Henan Province, with Huaihe River in

the north and Dabie Mountains in the south. With its

rich red tourism resources, it has established a series

of rural tourism projects under the planning of the

government. In the past few years, a large number of

tourists have come to visit. However, with the

increasing popularity, more and more problems have

been exposed. If these problems are not solved at the

source, the rural tourism industry in Xinyang will

stop. For the sustainable and high-quality

development of rural tourism in Xinyang City, this

paper will comprehensively analyse the problems and

contradictions encountered in its rural tourism

development, and put forward corresponding

suggestions and solutions.

2 RESEARCH BACKGROUND

As a new type of rural tourism development mode in

the contemporary era, the rural tourism revitalization

Ma, J.

Research on Rural Tourism Promoting Regional High Quality Development Based on ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Guangshan County, Xinyang City.

DOI: 10.5220/0012023400003620

In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME 2022), pages 55-60

ISBN: 978-989-758-636-1

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

and development mode is a major strategic measure

for China to deeply implement the national

characteristic economy rural tourism revitalization

and development project, and all regions of the

country have launched a series of measures to

vigorously develop rural tourism. Xinyang City,

located in the south of Henan Province, has

established a series of rural tourism projects under the

planning of the government with its rich red tourism

resources. (

Foster, D. 1985)

A large number of tourists

have come to visit in the past few years. The

following is the data on rural tourism in Xinyang in

the past five years

Figure 1: Total income of tourists and tourism in Xinyang

in the past 17-21 years.

Time series analysis is one of the core methods

of quantitative prediction. Generally speaking, it

mainly includes general statistical analysis,

establishment and inference of statistical models,

and optimal prediction, control and filtering of time

series. The most classical statistical analysis mostly

assumes that data series are independent, but time

series analysis is different from it, focusing on the

interdependence between data series. In fact, time

series analysis is the statistics and analysis of

discrete exponential random processes, so it can

also be regarded as a component of random process

statistics. In this paper, ARIMA is one of the most

widely used time series modeling methods. Let

time series 𝑦



be a single integer sequence of order

d.Mark as 𝑦

~

l(d),

𝜔



∆



𝑦



1𝐿



𝑦



Where 𝜔



is a stationary sequence, that

is, 𝜔



~l0 , so ARMA (p, q) model can be

established for 𝜔



𝜔



c∅



𝜔



⋯𝜙



𝜔



𝜀



𝜃



𝜀



⋯𝜃



𝜀



Represented by lag operator,





𝜔



 𝑐  ΘL𝜀



In the formula,





1𝜙



𝐿𝜙



𝐿



⋯𝜙



𝐿







1𝜃



𝐿𝜃



𝐿



⋯𝜃



𝐿



ARMA (p, q) model after d-order difference

transformation is called ARIMA (p, d, q) model,

which is equivalent to the following equation.

𝜙



𝐿



1𝐿





𝑦



 𝑐  𝛩𝐿𝜀



The Auto Ts library in Python 3.8.12 is used to

realize the 3-year time series prediction of the number

of tourists and tourism revenue in Xinyang City from

2011 to 2021. The better model for the prediction of

the number of tourists is ETS, and the better model

for the prediction of tourism revenue is

AverageValueNaive. The results are shown in the

figure below.

Figure 2: Forecast of the number of tourists in Xinyang in

the next three years.

Figure 3: Forecast of Xinyang's tourism revenue in the next

three years.

It can be seen from the figure that the number of

tourists and tourism income in Xinyang will increase

in the next three years.

ICEMME 2022 - The International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering

3 SWOT ANALYSIS OF RURAL

TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN

XINYANG CITY

Through the analysis and application of SWOT

analysis model, this paper makes a comprehensive

and systematic analysis of the strengths, weaknesses,

opportunities and threats in the development of rural

tourism in Xinyang City, which is of great

significance to the development of rural tourism in

Xinyang City.

Table 1: SWOT Analysis of Rural Tourism Development in

Xinyang City.

Internal

environment

Internal

strengths

Internal

weaknesses

(1) Superior

location

(2) Rich red

resources

(1) Lack of

scientific planning

(2) Serious

shortage of

professionals

External

environment

External

opportunity

External threats

(1) Government

policy support

(2) Good market

prospect

(1) Serious

homogenization of

products

(2) Weakening of

regional

characteristics

3.1 Analysis of Internal Strengths

Xinyang has convenient transportation. It is not far

from many transport hub cities, which makes it easy

for tourists to travel here. The traffic in the city is also

very convenient. Pave asphalt roads between villages

and towns. The initial formation of the rural road

traffic network not only facilitates the travel of

tourists in the city, but also facilitates the

communication between villages and towns, enriches

the travel mode of Xinyang people, and provides

favorable conditions for the development of rural

tourism in Xinyang.

At the same time, Xinyang, as a land with a long

history of Chinese revolution, has inherited the red

gene of its predecessors. Many important events have

taken place here that have affected the Chinese

revolution. Xinyang's red cultural heritage can serve

as the basis for the development of rural tourism and

create a "red brand" belonging to Xinyang.

3.2 Analysis of Internal Weaknesses

Due to the weak concept of development, many

scenic spots in Xinyang have not carried out unified

scientific planning, so there are many problems. In

addition, in the process of rural tourism development

planning, development is emphasized over planning,

and local culture and rural customs of the village itself

are ignored. Moreover, most scenic spots only see

short-term benefits. They blindly build projects that

can make money quickly, which greatly reduces the

tourists' sense of experience.

In addition, professionals play a key role in the

implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

However, due to the insufficient attention of Xinyang

local government, a large number of professionals

have been lost. Nowadays, most people engaged in

rural tourism are villagers. Because of their low level

of education and lack of formal training, they often

force them to buy and sell fake goods. The progress

of rural tourism in Xinyang is directly affected by the

lack of attention paid by the local government to

talent introduction and the large number of local

people.

3.3 Analysis of External Opportunity

On April 29, 2021, the 13th National People's

Congress passed the Law of the People's Republic of

China on the Promotion of Rural Revitalization. This

policy reflects the strong support of the state for rural

development, actively leads social capital to invest in

rural development, combines with local agriculture,

and drives rural tourism of urban residents, laying a

good political foundation for the development of rural

tourism. On May 13, 2020, the General Office of

Henan Provincial People's Government issued the

Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Rural

Tourism. This opinion is based on the actual situation

of rural areas in Henan Province. In order to promote

rural development, the Henan Provincial Government

combines tourism according to local conditions,

aiming to form a new pattern in which agriculture and

tourism develop side by side and urban and rural areas

progress together. On September 30, 2016, Xinyang

City approved the Regulations on the Protection of

Traditional Villages in Xinyang City, providing legal

protection for traditional villages.

3.4 Analysis of External Threats

Xinyang Municipal Government has introduced

mature rural tourism routes from other cities and

transferred them to the development of rural tourism

Research on Rural Tourism Promoting Regional High Quality Development Based on ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Guangshan County,

Xinyang City

in Xinyang. This method neglects the integration of

local unique cultural resources in the process of

development, which will have a bad impact on it.

In addition, due to the rapid development of rural

tourism in Xinyang City, the original ecological

landscape of the countryside has been greatly

damaged, and the most unforgettable local flavor of

the countryside has been lost in the process of

construction, and the rural flavor has gradually

weakened.

4 CASE ANALYSIS OF RURAL

TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN

GUANGSHAN COUNTRY

4.1 Dongyue Village Develops

Ecological Industry to Promote

Rural Revitalization

Dongyue Village is located 24km to the southwest of

Guangshan County, which belongs to shallow

mountain and hilly terrain. There are 145 registered

poor households with 598 people in the village. By

developing ecological industries such as camellia,

rice and tea, Dongyue Village will lift itself out of

poverty in 2018. In recent two years, tourism in

Dongyue Village has become increasingly

prosperous, becoming a new growth point of

employment and income. The per capita income

reached 12700 yuan. Dongyue Village has won the

honorary titles of "Henan Civilization Demonstration

Village", "National Beautiful Leisure Demonstration

Village", etc. The main practices of Dongyue Village

are:

4.1.1 In Response to the National Poverty

Alleviation Policy, a Large Number of

Camellia Trees Were Planted

The country began to implement the policy of

returning farmland to forests in 2009, and Dongyue

Village has also begun to actively respond to the

national policy, and through the introduction of

experts to conduct field visits,follow the experts'

suggestions, and develop the camellia industry

consistent with the actual situation of Dongyue

Village. After more than ten years of efforts, the

Camellia oleifera industry in Dongyue Village has

now established a large-scale production base in

Guangshan County and formed a one-stop modern

agricultural industry chain. When Dongyue Village is

vigorously developing modern agricultural industry,

the ecological environment of its villagers has also

been improved and a sustainable development path

has been taken. The harmonious development of the

industrial environment has been realized, and Jinshan

Yinshan is a place where green water and green

mountains are truly realized. Green water and green

mountains have also brought wealth to the villagers

of Dongyue Village.

4.1.2 Integrate Resources by Using the

Sharing Economy Model

Dongyue Village is dominated by hills and shallow

mountains, and its lakes and ponds provide unique

conditions for food planting and duck raising. A large

number of ducks not only promoted the growth of

meat and duck egg production, but also gave birth to

the down clothing industry. In terms of grain planting,

local villagers actively develop rice shrimp farming

by using water resources to achieve double harvests

of one field and two waters. (Van der Zee,

E.&Vannest, D.2015) In addition, hardworking

villagers have created unique "Guangshan Ten

Treasures" agricultural products through their own

wisdom. By vigorously developing the "E-

commerce+Guangshan Ten Treasures" industrial

poverty alleviation model, we led all villagers to

achieve poverty alleviation.

4.1.3 Maximize the Use of Rich Historical

Culture

Dongyue Village has a profound history, and every

tree and grass here is the witness of red culture.

Dongyue Village is the birthplace of the proletarian

revolutionaries of the older generation. It publicizes

the red culture of Dongyue Village through the

glorious deeds of red characters. As the "signboard"

of Dongyue Village, Huagu Opera has a long history

and plays an important role in the life, culture and

entertainment of ordinary people. It has brought

laughter and laughter to Dongyue Village, and it is

also an intangible cultural heritage, which plays a

good role in promoting the inheritance of the

excellent character of Dongyue villagers.

4.2 Summary of Dongyue Village's

Experience in Developing Rural

Tourism

Dongyue Village was once a contiguous national poor

village. In order to change the backwardness of the

village and enable the villagers of Dongyue Village

to live a well-to-do life, village cadres led the

ICEMME 2022 - The International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering

villagers to actively respond to national policies and

vigorously develop rural tourism against the

backdrop of rural revitalization. Dongyue Village

relies on the new industrial model of rural tourism and

combines the characteristics of the village to create a

local rural tourism brand. In recent years, due to the

continuous efforts of Dongyue people, the local rural

areas have gradually lifted out of poverty and become

rich, and the culture of Dongyue Village has been

promoted and developed in Henan and even the

whole country. Rural tourism has driven the income

of local people. The following is a summary of

Dongyue Village's experience in developing rural

tourism.

4.2.1 Nature Protection

Dongyue Village always adheres to the concept of

protecting nature when developing rural tourism,

does not destroy every tree and grass in the village,

protects the original natural scenery, and lives in

harmony with nature. The village has set up a number

of garbage dropping points to meet the needs of

customers to throw garbage when they play. At the

same time, the village has a dedicated person

responsible for daily cleaning every day, so that

tourists have a good sense of sightseeing experience.

4.2.2 Protection of Rural Aboriginality

Rural localization is an important factor in the

development of rural tourism. In the process of

developing rural tourism, Dongyue Village always

combines the scientific planning concept with the

evolution law of rural development, and promotes

rural construction in an orderly manner while

maintaining the rural and local characteristics of rural

tourism.

4.2.3 Building Local Brands

When developing rural tourism, Dongyue people, in

combination with the characteristics of the village,

established a local rural tourism brand belonging to

Dongyue Village, and created unique "Guangshan

Ten Treasures" agricultural products: brick bridge

moon cakes （ Wei, L., & Ullah, S. 2022), sweet

potato noodles, sweet rice wine, camellia oil,

Jigongtan Ciba, salty duck eggs, fried noodles, and so

on.

4.2.4 Media Publicity

Dongyue Village established an e-commerce service

platform in 18 years, and Zhongyuan Publishing and

Media Group helped Dongyue Village carry out

"618" online live streaming of goods on several e-

commerce platforms. On August 5, 20, China Central

Radio and Television (CCTV)'s "World Finance and

Economics" program, "Going to the Village to Live

Watch Poverty Alleviation", went to Dongyue

Village for live broadcast.

5 CONCLUSION

5.1 Establish a Good Brand Awareness

of Rural Tourism Development

It is very important to establish a good brand

awareness of rural tourism, which can promote the

development of rural tourism. We should strengthen

publicity, broaden publicity channels, and combine

offline and online models. For online promotion, it is

necessary to establish a complete network marketing

system, and do a good job of tourism promotion and

rural landscape display through various social

networks and short video platforms. For offline

publicity, we should enrich the types of tourism

activities and attract various social activities to be

held in Xinyang, which can rapidly enhance the

influence and development of rural tourism in

Xinyang.

5.2 Strengthen the Cultivation of

Professional Talents

In the implementation process of rural revitalization,

talents are a very important link and also the key. In

order to improve and develop the quality of local rural

tourism, the local government needs to build a high-

quality tourism talent team. （

Yang, J., Luo, J. M., &

Yao, R. 2022)To this end, government departments can

take some measures to mobilize the enthusiasm of

local farmers, let them actively participate in the

work, and contribute their own strength. (

Woodside, A.

G., & Martin, D. (Eds. 2008)

At the same time,

government departments should implement regular

training for practitioners in tourist attractions, and

constantly improve the overall quality of

practitioners. In addition, we can also attract

professionals to invest in the construction of rural

tourism in Guangshan County through high salary,

which is very conducive to promoting the

development of rural tourism industry.

Research on Rural Tourism Promoting Regional High Quality Development Based on ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Guangshan County,

Xinyang City

5.3 Strengthening Rural Tourism

Development Planning

Strengthen rural tourism development planning,

constantly improve the rural tourism development

planning system, and optimize rural leisure tourism.

In the process of rural tourism development planning,

first of all, we should attract excellent rural tourism

planning talents at home and abroad. (Woodside, A.

G., & Martin, D. (Eds.). 2008) Second, local

governments should pay attention to strengthening

the strictness of project approval. It is essential to

grasp this degree, which can thoroughly solve the

important problem of too many scenic spots of the

same type. Finally, we will hold lectures on rural

tourism to instill the correct concept of development

for relevant investment enterprises.

5.4 Maintain Rural Localization

In the process of rural tourism planning, we should

avoid the weakening of rural localization. For the

development of rural tourism in Xinyang, the local

government should always combine the scientific

planning concept with the evolution law of rural

development, and promote the rural construction

orderly while maintaining the rural and local

characteristics of rural tourism.

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