A Path-Depended Passenger Flow Forecasting Model for Metro Rail
Systems Using LSTM Neural Network
Jaison Paul Mulerikkal
1 a
, Deepa Merlin Dixon
2
and Sajanraj Thandassery
2 b
1
Dept. of Information Technology, Rajagiri School of Engineering and Technology,Kochi, 682 039, Kerala, India
2
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Rajagiri School of Engineering and Technology,
Keywords:
Passenger Flow, Short-Term, Long Short-Term Memory Network, Support Vector Regression.
Abstract:
The primary goal of this work is to develop a framework for short term passenger flow prediction for metro rail
transport systems. A reliable prediction of short-term passenger flow could greatly support metro authorities’
decision process. Both inflow and outflow of the metro stations are strongly associated with the travel demand
within metro networks. Sequestered station-wise analysis ignores the spatial correlations existing between
the stations. This paper tries to merge the spatial with the temporal by employing an indirect method of
computing flow through O-D estimates for the same. Path-depended station-pairs of O-D flow are considered
for employing a customized LSTM network. Experimental results indicate that the proposed passenger flow
prediction model is capable of better generalization on short-term passenger flow than standard models of
learning compared. This work also establishes that O-D prediction provides an indirect estimation procedure
for passenger flow. The specific use case for this work is Kochi Metro Rail Limited (KMRL). A highlight of
the work is that the whole analytics and modelling procedures are written on a customized scalable big-data
platform (Jaison Paul Data Analytics Platform) JP-DAP which was developed prior to this work.
1 INTRODUCTION
Metro railways are one of the new additions to intel-
ligent transportation systems. Due to increasing pop-
ulation and ever extending city coverage, commuters
rely more on public transit systems such as metro rail-
ways. Recently, with efficient, reliable and safe ser-
vice, metro networks are experiencing a sharp hike in
ridership. Short term traffic flow prediction is an in-
tegral component of the operational decision making
pipeline. Short term passenger flow prediction aims
at estimating the number of commuters given a spe-
cific station and a time interval, which is an important
problem to address in metro transportation manage-
ment (Li et al., 2017). Prediction of passenger flow
information is of immense value in facility improve-
ment, operation planning, revenue management, and
even emergency evacuation. The literature supports
both parametric and non-parametric models, paramet-
ric models include Auto-Regressive Moving Aver-
age(ARMA), seasonal ARMA, Kalman filtering, etc.,
a
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5266-2159
b
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2899-0184
while some frequently used non-parametric models
are k-Nearest Neighbors algorithm (kNN) and spec-
tral analysis. Recently, with incredible developments
in artificial intelligence and explosive growth in com-
putational power, there is a significant leap from ana-
lytical to data-driven modelling.
Since the operations of the metro, with an expand-
ing user base, is a source of big data, analytical sand-
boxes designed to perform inferential procedures can-
not be deployed as a real time solution as long as the
scalability aspect is left unaddressed. The analytics
presented here were therefore preceded by develop-
ing a customized distributed and scalable platform,
JP-DAP. The models presented here were developed
and run on the platform. The system is populated us-
ing the data received from KMRL (The project has
a data sharing agreement with KMRL). In this work,
propose an efficient and reliable travel pattern predic-
tion through Origin-Destination (O-D) matrix estima-
tion. This indirect approach is better than direct esti-
mation of travel patterns which overlooks the spatial
interconnections between stations. O-D distribution
is distinct for different station-pairs since the usage
distributions of stations are not identical.
Mulerikkal, J., Dixon, D. and Thandassery, S.
A Path-Depended Passenger Flow Forecasting Model for Metro Rail Systems Using LSTM Neural Network.
DOI: 10.5220/0011840800003479
In Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems (VEHITS 2023), pages 257-264
ISBN: 978-989-758-652-1; ISSN: 2184-495X
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
257
In the current trend most of the algorithms con-
sider either entry flow or the exit. In this case, we
have included origin-destination flow to make the
flow path dependency between two stations. Here the
case study has included the path from station A to sta-
tion B, and also considered the direction flow from B
to A. So that the mapping become 1:1.
The proposed model outperforms some widely
used forecasting models such as the Support Vector
Regressor (SVR), Bayesian regressor and Regression
Tree.
The remainder of the paper is organized as fol-
lows. Section 1.1 describes the related work in the
area. This section gives a comprehensive review of
big data analytics in railway transportation. The fol-
lowing section 2 provides an intuitive analysis of the
data, formats and basic architecture of JP-DAP. Sec-
tion 3 provides a detail explanation about the fare card
based learning for short term passenger flow predic-
tion. Section 3.1 explains the proposed network archi-
tecture and passenger flow prediction model based on
long short term memory (LSTM). Comparative anal-
yses of the prediction performances are provided in
Section 4. Finally, conclusions drawn and future re-
search directions are discussed in Section 5.
1.1 Related Works
In recent years, Intelligent transportation systems
(ITS) have a significant role in smart cities. Short
term traffic flow prediction plays an indispensable
role in ITS (Ci et al., 2017). Hence considerable ef-
fort is made to develop efficient traffic flow prediction
methods, which is backed by a large number of pub-
lications in this field. The purpose of short term traf-
fic flow prediction is to facilitate dynamic traffic con-
trol proactively by monitoring the present traffic and
foreseeing its immediate future (Tang et al., 2019).
Apart from that, it provides accurate and timely traf-
fic volume information for individual travelers, busi-
ness sectors and government agencies (Tian and Pan,
2015). At the same time, any transportation net-
work is a very complex system composed of many
other factors such as weather conditions, region, etc..
Hence, the short-term traffic flow is highly non-linear
and stochastic, which makes it a huge challenge to
be predicted accurately (Tian and Pan, 2015). From
previous studies, diverse deep learning methods have
been applied to traffic flow prediction as they can cap-
ture the complex non-linear relations and the latent
correlation features in traffic flow data. Furthermore,
short-term passenger flow prediction for metro rail
systems is a relatively new research field when com-
pared to traffic prediction for ground transport.
A seminal work, Ahmed et al. (1979) proposed
a model for short-term prediction of freeway traffic
flow using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Aver-
age (ARIMA) (Ahmed and Cook, 1979). In 2009,
Tsai et al. (Tsai et al., 2009) constructed two types
of improved neural network models based on distinc-
tive railway data for short-term railway passenger de-
mand forecasting. The first is a neural network with
several temporal units that interprets raw material us-
ing specific connections inside the network. The sec-
ond method uses a parallel ensemble neural network,
which processes various input data using various in-
dividual models. Both neural networks outperform
traditional multilayer perception neural networks, ac-
cording to the data. Later in 2013, Teresa Pamuła
(Pamuła, 2013) developed a neural network model
for accurate short term traffic flow forecasting with
the data obtained from two video detectors located
at the ends of a transit road in the city of Gliwice.
In this work, tests were performed using three dis-
tinct classes of time series corresponding to: working
days, Saturdays and Sundays. In (Sun et al., 2015)
proposed a hybrid model of Wavelet Support Vector
Machine (SVM). The method first decomposes the
passenger flow data into different high frequency and
low frequency series by wavelet and then prediction
performed using SVM.
In 2018, Xiaoqing Dai et al. (Dai et al., 2018)
developed a data-driven framework for short-term
metro passenger flow prediction which utilizes spatio-
temporal correlations. The travel demand within the
metro networks are closely related to inflow and out-
flow of the metro stations. Hence, in this work they
collect the O-D information from the smart-card data
to explore the passenger flow patterns and propose a
data driven framework for short-term metro passenger
flow prediction. This method utilizes two forecasts as
basic models, adaptive boosting and k-Nearest Neigh-
bors (kNN) and then uses a probabilistic model se-
lection method to combine the two outputs for better
forecast.
From the literature survey, it was evident that
LSTM based sequence prediction systems have not
received much attention in metro related studies.
Also, there are some existing gaps in metro passen-
ger flow forecast such as unclear influencing factors,
low accuracy, passenger congestion, unbalanced ca-
pacity and demand etc.(Zhang et al., 2020). A metro
path defined to a travel from the origin station to
alighting station of a passenger, which indicates the
movement of a commuter within the metro network.
Thus O-D flows is a potential feature to boost pre-
diction (Dai et al., 2018). Therefore, in this work
the O-D flows extracted from AFC data can be suc-
VEHITS 2023 - 9th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems
258
cessfully utilized to describe different metro rail travel
patterns. Hence the proposed forecasting framework,
especially the LSTM method, can improve the per-
formance of short-term transportation forecasting for
metro rail.
2 EXPERIMENTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND DATA
SET
Kochi Metro rail (KMRL) (Metro Rail, 2017) net-
work in Kerala, India, is selected as the use case for
this research work. During the time interval consid-
ered, the metro line in the city covered only 16 sta-
tions with an average daily passenger volume of about
50,000. This dataset provides an insight into typical
growth and demand pattern of a new-built metro sys-
tem. The dataset is collected from Automatic Fare
Collection (AFC)(Ampelas, 2001) system and covers
667 days, from 2017 (from June), 2018 and 2019 with
a size of 5GB. A detailed description of AFC is given
in Section 2.1.
The software ecosystem on which the experimen-
tal procedure and analysis were conducted consists of
:
Customized Hadoop based platform with Apache
Spark integration and GPU support (JP-DAP)
Python 3 with associated packages including Ten-
sorflow, Keras and Scikit-learn for implementa-
tion of the analytic models.
On the hardware side, the computational nodes were
configured with Intel Xeon E3 series server-grade
processor with 4 cores and 32 GB RAM and NVIDIA
Quadro P1000 graphics card with 4GB of GPU mem-
ory. The data are received through system APIs and
are appropriately transformed into forms suitable for
analysis and visualization. The structured informa-
tion is stored in Hive database. Spark (Zaharia et al.,
2010) is responsible for the computation and transfor-
mation process, with distributed memory computing.
Details of JP-DAP is provided in Section 2.2.
2.1 Automated Fare Card Data
The compiled data used for this research work is pro-
vided by by the AFC Analysis Department of KMRL.
The data is stripped of sensitive private attributes and
anonymized by the department before making it avail-
able for analysis. The detail data format is shown in
Table 1.
2.2 Big Data Platform
In this section, the description of the big data plat-
form called Jaison Paul Data Analytics Platform (JP-
DAP)(Mulerikkal et al., 2022) built on Hadoop with
supporting analytics components is given. This is
a prior work done which is already communicated.
The system accepts data from a spectrum of distinct
sources associated with the metro presently. The ar-
chitecture has been designed to provide enough lee-
way to seamlessly integrate other modes of transport
as well as the future expansions in the metro itself.
The data is received through system APIs. The core
analysis covered by a set of internal APIs within the
platform .
3 SHORT TERM PASSENGER
FLOW PREDICTION FROM
O-D FORECAST
Short term passenger flow prediction is an important
aspect of usage trend analysis and provides a very
useful feature for deciding staffing pattern and train
schedules. For effective metro system management
and to help commuters adjust their travel timings or
in extreme cases, assist emergency management an
effective passenger flow prediction is required (Dai
et al., 2018). The passenger counts in both up and
down directions of each station provide its distinct be-
havioral travel pattern. The passenger count can be
station wise or pair-wise total entry and total exit. For
the analysis of passenger flow, different time frames
are considered and day-wise prediction is performed.
An accurate short term passenger flow at each (O-
D) path can be predicted by combining the legacy in-
formation of both inflow and outflow of each metro
station (Dai et al., 2018). Hence, for time series
forecasting for each path, the O-D information is ex-
tracted from AFC data. The entire travel paths, both
forward and backward of the metro system is shown
in Fig. 1(a) and Fig. 1(b). In the figure, S
O
and S
D
are the target origin and destination stations. Hence
the path connecting S
O
and S
D
is the targeted path.
The proposed model is trained for predicting the pas-
senger flow of the targeted O-D based on legacy O-D
data. The O-D matrix of the metro system consisting
of m stations is shown in equation 1. Where P
i j
rep-
resents the total count of passengers from station i to
station j for a predefined time window.
A Path-Depended Passenger Flow Forecasting Model for Metro Rail Systems Using LSTM Neural Network
259
Table 1: Dataset Description.
Database Entry Description / Contents
Stations
All working station information (till Feb 2019)
Aluva, Pulinchodu, Companypady, Ambattukavu,Muttom, Kalamassery, Cochin University,
Pathadipalam, EdapallyChangampuzha Park, Palarivattom, JLN Stadium, Kaloor,
Lissie, M.G Road, Maharaja’s College
Equipment
Type
Mode of Taking Tickets have done (3 Modes)
EFO (Excess Fare Office)
TOM (Ticket Office Machine)
GATE (AFC Gates)
Equipment ID Unique ID of each Machines
Fare Product E-Purse, SJT (Single Journey Ticket), Free Exit Ticket, Paid Exit Ticket, Staff Card
Fare
Media
EMV (using Kochi One Card) , QR (Normal Paper Ticket), RPT (RF-ID Paper Ticket)
Ticket
Card Number
Unique Ticket ID Information
Transaction
Type
Top-up, Issue , Adjustment, Entry, Exit ,Cancel
Transaction
Time
YYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS Format
(a) Forward Path of Passengers for Different O-D’s (b) Backward Path of Passengers for Different O-D’s
Figure 1: Passenger Flow Paths in Metro System.
Figure 2: Illustration of the Inner Structure of an LSTM Layer.
OD
Matrix
=
0 P
1,2
P
1,3
.....P
1,m
P
2,1
0 P
2,3
.....P
2,m
P
3,1
P
3,2
0......P
3,m
. . .
. . .
P
m,1
P
m,2
P
m,3
.....0
(1)
In the proposed method, a feature matrix com-
prised of O-D information based on the time win-
dow is computed over a period of time, forming a 2-D
time sequence. A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)
is trained to make short term O-D predictions from a
sequence collected over a span of d consecutive time
VEHITS 2023 - 9th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems
260
windows.
Feature
Matrix
=
P
1,1
td+1
··· P
1,m
t
.
.
. ·· ·
.
.
.
P
1,m
td+1
·· · P
1,m
t
P
2,1
td+1
·· · P
2,1
t
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
P
m,m
td+1
·· · P
m,m
t
(2)
3.1 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
Neural networks outperform most of the traditional
machine learning techniques because of its unique
non-linear adaptive processing ability(Xiao and Yin,
2019). The inability of traditional neural networks in
handling long sequences due to undesirable behaviour
of training gradients hindered their application on
structured learning problems until the path-breaking
invention of LSTM networks (Hochreiter and
Schmidhuber, 1997). Literature amply supports the
application of LSTM for traffic flow prediction(Xiao
and Yin, 2019). The architectural checks to prevent
gradients from going haywire are implemented using
input, output and forget gates, which regulate the flow
of gradients through the neural units (LSTM cells) (Ci
et al., 2017). The LSTM cell unit is depicted in Fig. 4.
With reference to Figure 2, the equations listed be-
low describe how an LSTM unit works at every time
step t. The expressions f
t
, i
t
,
e
C
t
, O
t
and C
t
represent
the forget gate, input gate, candidate cell state, output
gate and cell state respectively. C
t
combines past in-
formation with present input. The final cell output is
represented by h
t
where the typically used activation
function is tanh (Xiao and Yin, 2019). σ(x) and tanh
are the standard activation functions used in neural
networks as given in equation 9 and 10. And W and
b are the weight vector matrix and bias vector respec-
tively.
f
t
= σ(w
f
.[h
t1
, x
t
] + b
f
) (3)
i
t
= σ(w
i
.[h
t1
, x
t
] + b
i
) (4)
e
C
t
= tanh(w
c
.[h
t1
, x
t
] + b
c
) (5)
C
t
= f
t
C
t1
+ i
t
e
c
t
(6)
O
t
= σ(w
o
.[h
t1
, x
t
] + b
o
) (7)
h
t
= O
t
tanh(C
t
) (8)
σ(x) =
1
1 + e
x
(9)
tanh(x) =
e
x
e
x
e
x
+ e
x
(10)
The transmission of information in the hidden state
are controlled by the input gate, the forget gate and the
output gate (Han et al., 2019). The input and forget
gates decide the strength of input and previous state
signals used in deciding the state of the cell. The out-
put gate modulates the non-linearly transformed state
and can helps local control of the output signal prop-
agated. LSTMs are highly effective in passenger flow
prediction as observed in (Han et al., 2019). The goal
of this work is to implement a path-dependent pas-
senger flow forecasting model. The detailed explana-
tion of proposed LSTM network for path-dependent
passenger flow forecasting is given in the following
Section.
Figure 3: Architecture of LSTM.
3.2 Path-Dependent Passenger Flow
Prediction Model Based on LSTM
The passenger flow forecasting is defined as predict-
ing future passenger volume y, from the historical
passenger flow at each station. Localized passenger
flow analysis of O-D pairs is an important technique
in spatio-temporal traffic analysis and is of great as-
sistance in service scheduling and logistics manage-
ment. We use LSTM model to forecast the traffic
through O-D paths. Suppose the input passenger flow
sequence of a certain O-D path is x = (x
1
, x
2
, x
3
...x
n
),
the vector sequence of the memory cell in LSTM is
h = (h
1
, h
2
, h
3
...h
n
), the output predicted y is the fi-
nal predicted passenger flow sequence for the O-D
path. For training the model, feature matrix is col-
lected from O-D information as given in equation 2.
The inflow and outflow of at each station is the ag-
gregated result of predicted path-dependent passen-
ger flows. The feature matrix is scaled in the range of
0to1 before being fed to the model. The architecture
of the proposed LSTM neural network is shown in fig
3. The input layer size is same as the input feature
matrix sequence length.
The proposed model consists of an LSTM layer
followed by a dense layer. The intermediate output
of the LSTM does a revealing representation of the
temporal correlations existing in the passenger flow
sequence. Hence the dense layer performs better than
when the sequence is directly fed to it. The dense
functions as a regressor for the scaled passenger flow
output. The network requires a single neuron in the
A Path-Depended Passenger Flow Forecasting Model for Metro Rail Systems Using LSTM Neural Network
261
output layer with a linear activation to predict the
passenger flow at the next time step. The optimiza-
tion of the dense layer is gradient descent and the
loss function is Mean Squared Error (MSE). Since
it is a single dense layer network the computation
done by it can be summarized by the equations below:
O
f inal
= f (W
i
X
i
+ B)
X
i
: input matrix
W
i
: weight matrix, B : bias
(11)
All the analytical procedures are performed in JP-
DAP software platform using relevant APIs and
deep learning libraries such as Google TensorFlow(Ci
et al., 2017). The other internal libraries used from the
JP-DAP platforms are ML-lib, Scikit-learn, OpenCV.
The LSTM model can be generalized to other com-
plex metro systems connecting other modes of trans-
port with O-D matrix providing relevant insights for
the future research.
4 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
AND ANALYSIS
This section presents the experiment outcomes of the
proposed model and discusses them in comparison
with other conventional machine learning algorithms
like SVR, Regressor and Regression Tree.
LSTM model is implemented using Keras library
(Chollet et al., 2015) on top of Google’s TensorFlow
machine learning framework (Abadi et al., 2016). To
analyze the passenger flow at each station and also to
find the anomalies present in the data, box plot analy-
sis is performed. All those points outside the min and
max are considered to be the outliers in the data. Out-
lier removal is performed as part of pre-processing.
Figure 4: Heat-map of Origin-Destination Matrix.
Further, the heatmap of O-D matrix for Kochi
metro stations per day is shown in Fig 4. From
the heatmap for a single day it is can be in-
ferred that, the frequent travel paths in the
Kochi metro network or the path-dependent stations
are (Edappally-Aluva), (Maharajas-Aluva), (Aluva-
Edappally), (Aluva-Maharajas), (Edappally- Mahara-
jas), (Maharajas-Edappally). Different machine
learning models such as the SVR, Bayesian Regres-
sor and Regression Tree are trained along with LSTM
network using scaled metro data. For training the
models, 60% from the whole data set is selected ran-
domly and the rest 40% is used for validation and
testing the network. LSTM is trained using stochastic
gradient descent algorithm. For more efficient passen-
ger flow prediction model, the maximum number of
epochs set to be 1000. From the experimental analysis
of the fare card dat based learning (AFC), the model
is best fit when it has 250, 40 and 6 neurons respec-
tively. Conventionally, the model training is stopped
if the loss of validation dataset does not decrease af-
ter five loops. The single step training and validation
loss of the proposed LSTM model is shown in Fig-
ure 5(a). Figure 5(b) provides the valid versus pre-
diction result of data points. Moreover, we train our
models by minimizing the mean square error for 500
epochs with a batch size of 100. The optimizer learn-
ing rate is experimentally fixed to 0.05. In any time
series forecasting method, performance metric is an
indispensable part. The accuracy assessment methods
for passenger flow prediction is given in the following
subsection.
4.1 Performance Metric
The statistical test indicators that we used to compare
the performance of the traffic flow prediction models
are Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared
Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). It is
defined as follows:
MSE =
1
n
n
i=1
(y
t
x
t
)
2
(12)
RMSE =
s
1
n
n
i=1
(y
t
x
t
)
2
(13)
MAE =
1
n
n
i=1
|y
t
x
t
| (14)
4.2 Evaluation and Inferences
The evaluation results of different models using O-D
is shown in Table 2. The model is compared with
a trained SVR model, Bayesian Regressor and Re-
gression Tree. With reference to Table 2, it is ob-
VEHITS 2023 - 9th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems
262
(a) Single-step Training and Validation Loss (b) Vaild vs Prediction based on the data-
points(Passenger Day Count)
Figure 5: Single-step Training and Validation Loss of LSTM and Valid vs Predction on datapoints.
(a) Short Term Path-wise Passenger Flow Prediction us-
ing LSTM
(b) Short Term Station-wise Passenger Flow Prediction
using LSTM
Figure 6: Path-wise and Station-wise Passenger Flow Prediction using LSTM.
Table 2: Accuracy Metrics for Time Series Forecast.
Model MSE RMSE MAE
SVR(kernel)
Linear 0.0023 0.0486 0.0476
Polynomial 0.0084 0.0924 0.0899
RBF 0.0031 0.0553 0.0541
Bayesian Regressor 0.00018 0.01376 0.003435
Regression Tree 0.00072 0.02688 0.01099
LSTM 0.00015 0.01253 0.003539
served that the best kernel for the SVR model is linear.
Also, the performance of the model is evaluated us-
ing accuracy measuring metrics such as MSE, Root
Mean Square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error
(MAE). From the experimental analysis and results
obtained, proposed passenger flow prediction model
using LSTM outperforms most of the traditional ma-
chine learning techniques. The LSTM model is de-
signed using all possible paths existing in the current
metro system. The time series prediction of passen-
ger count using the LSTM neural network is shown
in Figure 6(a). The inflow and outflow of each sta-
tion is the aggregated result of predicted O-D flows as
depicted in Figure 6(b).
5 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE
WORK
This work attempts to tackle the problem of flow pre-
diction for metro rail transport using path-dependent
station pairs to increase the accuracy of the predic-
tion. By examining the observations it was found
that LSTM network in conjunction with a non-linear
dense prediction layer performed better than other
models. Experimental results have derived that that
incorporation of spatial information is a performance
enhancer and blazes a direction worth further explo-
ration. Moreover unlike conventional ML methods
the intermediate features generated by the LSTM con-
vey the temporal structure more effectively. The ex-
A Path-Depended Passenger Flow Forecasting Model for Metro Rail Systems Using LSTM Neural Network
263
traction of OD matrix is computational bottleneck in
this process. We identify employment of distributed
computational methods as a potential future work for
solving this problem. Another intended area of future
work is to further explore is the effect of external fac-
tors like weather conditions and bring them into the
scope of the model.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research is supported by Interdisciplinary Cyber
Physical Systems Division of Department of Science
and Technology (DST), Government of India (Project
ID : DST/ ICPS/ CPS Individual/2018/1091).
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