In the current trend most of the algorithms con-
sider either entry flow or the exit. In this case, we
have included origin-destination flow to make the
flow path dependency between two stations. Here the
case study has included the path from station A to sta-
tion B, and also considered the direction flow from B
to A. So that the mapping become 1:1.
The proposed model outperforms some widely
used forecasting models such as the Support Vector
Regressor (SVR), Bayesian regressor and Regression
Tree.
The remainder of the paper is organized as fol-
lows. Section 1.1 describes the related work in the
area. This section gives a comprehensive review of
big data analytics in railway transportation. The fol-
lowing section 2 provides an intuitive analysis of the
data, formats and basic architecture of JP-DAP. Sec-
tion 3 provides a detail explanation about the fare card
based learning for short term passenger flow predic-
tion. Section 3.1 explains the proposed network archi-
tecture and passenger flow prediction model based on
long short term memory (LSTM). Comparative anal-
yses of the prediction performances are provided in
Section 4. Finally, conclusions drawn and future re-
search directions are discussed in Section 5.
1.1 Related Works
In recent years, Intelligent transportation systems
(ITS) have a significant role in smart cities. Short
term traffic flow prediction plays an indispensable
role in ITS (Ci et al., 2017). Hence considerable ef-
fort is made to develop efficient traffic flow prediction
methods, which is backed by a large number of pub-
lications in this field. The purpose of short term traf-
fic flow prediction is to facilitate dynamic traffic con-
trol proactively by monitoring the present traffic and
foreseeing its immediate future (Tang et al., 2019).
Apart from that, it provides accurate and timely traf-
fic volume information for individual travelers, busi-
ness sectors and government agencies (Tian and Pan,
2015). At the same time, any transportation net-
work is a very complex system composed of many
other factors such as weather conditions, region, etc..
Hence, the short-term traffic flow is highly non-linear
and stochastic, which makes it a huge challenge to
be predicted accurately (Tian and Pan, 2015). From
previous studies, diverse deep learning methods have
been applied to traffic flow prediction as they can cap-
ture the complex non-linear relations and the latent
correlation features in traffic flow data. Furthermore,
short-term passenger flow prediction for metro rail
systems is a relatively new research field when com-
pared to traffic prediction for ground transport.
A seminal work, Ahmed et al. (1979) proposed
a model for short-term prediction of freeway traffic
flow using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Aver-
age (ARIMA) (Ahmed and Cook, 1979). In 2009,
Tsai et al. (Tsai et al., 2009) constructed two types
of improved neural network models based on distinc-
tive railway data for short-term railway passenger de-
mand forecasting. The first is a neural network with
several temporal units that interprets raw material us-
ing specific connections inside the network. The sec-
ond method uses a parallel ensemble neural network,
which processes various input data using various in-
dividual models. Both neural networks outperform
traditional multilayer perception neural networks, ac-
cording to the data. Later in 2013, Teresa Pamuła
(Pamuła, 2013) developed a neural network model
for accurate short term traffic flow forecasting with
the data obtained from two video detectors located
at the ends of a transit road in the city of Gliwice.
In this work, tests were performed using three dis-
tinct classes of time series corresponding to: working
days, Saturdays and Sundays. In (Sun et al., 2015)
proposed a hybrid model of Wavelet Support Vector
Machine (SVM). The method first decomposes the
passenger flow data into different high frequency and
low frequency series by wavelet and then prediction
performed using SVM.
In 2018, Xiaoqing Dai et al. (Dai et al., 2018)
developed a data-driven framework for short-term
metro passenger flow prediction which utilizes spatio-
temporal correlations. The travel demand within the
metro networks are closely related to inflow and out-
flow of the metro stations. Hence, in this work they
collect the O-D information from the smart-card data
to explore the passenger flow patterns and propose a
data driven framework for short-term metro passenger
flow prediction. This method utilizes two forecasts as
basic models, adaptive boosting and k-Nearest Neigh-
bors (kNN) and then uses a probabilistic model se-
lection method to combine the two outputs for better
forecast.
From the literature survey, it was evident that
LSTM based sequence prediction systems have not
received much attention in metro related studies.
Also, there are some existing gaps in metro passen-
ger flow forecast such as unclear influencing factors,
low accuracy, passenger congestion, unbalanced ca-
pacity and demand etc.(Zhang et al., 2020). A metro
path defined to a travel from the origin station to
alighting station of a passenger, which indicates the
movement of a commuter within the metro network.
Thus O-D flows is a potential feature to boost pre-
diction (Dai et al., 2018). Therefore, in this work
the O-D flows extracted from AFC data can be suc-
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