Emergency Meteorological Data Preparation for Artillery Operations

Jan Ivan

, Michal Šustr

, David Sládek

Jaroslav Varecha

and Jiří Gregor

Fire Support Department, University of Defence, Kounicova 65, Brno, Czech Republic

Department of Military Tactics and Operational Art, Armed Forces Academy of general Milan Rastislav Štefánik,

Demänová 393, Liptovský Mikuláš, Slovakia

Department of Process Engineering, Brno University of Technology, Antonínská 548/1, Brno, Czech Republic

Keywords: Artillery, Knowledge Based System, Meteorology, Military, Synopsys, Tacticle Sensor.

Abstract: The article discusses a research project focused on new approaches to the meteorological preparation of

artillery units. As can be observed in the current conditions of the war in Ukraine, artillery is a key component

of both warring parties. The effectiveness of artillery is based on the accuracy of its fire. However, in order

for the artillery to fire accurately, it is necessary to compensate for all the influences that may affect the shell

flight. The main component of influencing factors are meteorological conditions, which the artillery

determines by upper air sounding of the atmosphere. However, currently used methods are very susceptible

to enemy activity and artillery must therefore be able to obtain meteorological data at any level of degradation

of its capabilities. This article describes the research project which is aimed to create an aggregated predictive

model based on historical meteorological data. Using this model, it would be possible to obtain meteorological

data autonomously, without the need for complex sounding of the atmosphere or obtaining data from external

sources. The article describes the proposed approaches to the solution of the project and the creation of an

aggregated predictive model for the use of artillery units.

1 INTRODUCTION

Although many statements predicted the gradual

decline of artillery in modern conflicts, the opposite

is true. Currently, as we can unfortunately see,

especially in the conditions of the war in Ukraine, the

artillery is an absolutely key component providing

fire support to combat units. However, the degree of

effectiveness of artillery must be seen in the broader

context of its operation and through the lens of all the

data and technologies that artillery uses in order to be

able to fire accurately and efficiently.

Unlike other types of combat support and combat

security forces, which include, for example,

chemical, anti-aircraft, logistics and engineering

forces, artillery is one of the oldest components of the

armed forces, whose principles and principles of

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operation have undergone fundamental changes in the

course of modern history. These changes have

become more or less reflected in the character they

operate on the battlefield (Rolenec and others, 2021).

Artillery is a technical branch of military whose

main purpose is to provide fire support to combat

units. However, this general definition, which can be

found in all sources, must be seen in a clear context.

Providing artillery support to combat units in detail

means providing those units with an effect that they

are unable to achieve with their weapons at distances

that their weapons cannot fire at. In addition to the

size of the effect, there is another aspect to be seen in

the background of the general definition, which is

accuracy. Therefore, if we should mark the clear

pillars of artillery activity, it is accuracy combined

with long range, because these two parameters clearly

define the effectiveness of artillery fire. Thus,

250

Ivan, J., Šustr, M., Sládek, D., Varecha, J. and Gregor, J.

Emergency Meteorological Data Preparation for Artillery Operations.

DOI: 10.5220/0012205500003543

In Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (ICINCO 2023) - Volume 1, pages 250-257

ISBN: 978-989-758-670-5; ISSN: 2184-2809

throughout history, the vast majority of innovations

have been aimed at increasing artillery capabilities in

the area of accuracy and range.

In order to understand the issue of how modern

artillery improves its accuracy by using

meteorological data, it is first necessary to describe

the basics of artillery fire control and the methods of

supplying meteorological data.

2 ARTILLERY FIRE CONTROL

Artillery is a multidisciplinary, technical type of

branch that is quite specific in how comprehensive

data it needs for its operations. In general, artillery

consists of four sub-groups:

1) weapon and ammunition systems,

2) sensors,

3) fire control,

4) supporting means.

Effectors are the most visible part of the artillery,

because they stand at the very end of the entire chain.

In the artillery environment, effectors are cannons

(howitzers), mortars, and rocket launchers. Effectors

are artillery tools, the purpose of which is to deliver

the ammunition, which is the carrier of the effect on

the target. For the effective function of effectors,

firing data is necessary, because they accumulate

positional and ballistic data about the effector, and the

ammunition used by it, as well as the meteorological

data informing about meteorological conditions that

may affect the flight path of the shell. The firing data

are determined within fire direction centers, with

information from the supporting means and other

sources being used to determine them.

Sensors are another combat components of

artillery, which are still necessary even in modern

conditions, because they are the means that allow the

observation of the target, its localization,

identification and subsequent cooperation on fire

control. Fire control cooperation consists in the fact

that the sensors observe the shell impacts and provide

the fire direction centers with their position data,

based on which corrections are made to the firing data

so that the target is hit. Modern sensors can take many

forms and are typically based on optical,

optoelectronic or radar instruments positioned on

self-propelled ground platforms, or aircrafts.

Fire control is one of the main components of

artillery, it is a process that involves planning,

coordinating, preparing and directing the firing of

artillery effectors. Its main objective is to achieve

maximum effect in the target, taking into account the

needs of the operational environment and the tasks of

the supported unit. Generally, artillery fire control is

divided into tactical fire control and technical fire

control.

Tactical fire control is part of the broader fire

control process and focuses on planning and

conducting fire at the tactical level within a specific

combat deployment. Typical tasks of tactical fire

control are the selection of the most suitable fire unit

to meet the objective according to combat

effectiveness, ammunition supply, position and other

metrics. (Świętochowski, 2019)

Technical fire control is the process of converting

the characteristics of weapon sets and ammunition

(ballistic firing conditions), the location of weapon

sets and targets (conditions of topographic-geodetic

connection) and meteorological conditions into firing

data. To put it simply, technical fire control deals with

the calculation of the firing data, which are set on the

effector sights. (Blaha and others, 2016)

Currently, technical fire control is an activity that

can be performed by a human entity or automated tool

using specialized software (fire control system or

ballistic computer). The method of performing

technical fire control is thus divided into manual and

digital gunnery.

Supporting means are a specific components

whose goal is to supply artillery units with all the data

necessary to fire. This is mainly the delivery of

navigation data for effectors and sensors (artillery

survey) and upper air sounding of the atmosphere, the

aim of which is the delivery of actual meteorological

data.

3 METEOROLOGICAL

TECHNIQUES

Meteorological techniques and preparation is a key

component of artillery fire control and artillery target

acquisition. The reason for this is that meteorological

conditions significantly affect the flight path of the

shell. The firing data must compensate for these

conditions in order to adjust the flight path of the shell

to hit the target. Approaches to technical fire control

and the inclusion of meteorological data vary across

individual states. However, in general, when

determining the firing data, corrections are included

that adjust the flight path of the shell for the effect of:

‐ air temperature,

‐ air density,

‐ air pressure,

‐ air humidity,

‐ wind speed and direction.

Emergency Meteorological Data Preparation for Artillery Operations

251

The inclusion of current meteorological

conditions in the firing data allows the artillery to

conduct fires for effect without prior adjustment,

which significantly increases the level of surprise and

the resulting effectiveness of artillery fire (Němec and

others, 2022).

The assessment of current meteorological

conditions can also have a major influence on the

planning of the routes of movement of artillery units

on the battlefield. Patency, security and concealment

are the main requirements for the routes of movement

between non-combat deployment areas, hiding areas

and firing positions. With regard to the increasing

dynamics of conflicts, it is necessary to plan the

routes of movement for artillery reconnaissance

means, fire support means, as well as logistic units

bringing supplies quickly and automatically (Nohel

and Others, 2019, 2022).

3.1 Ascertaining of Meteorological

Conditions

Meteorological conditions can be detected in

different ways. Currently, the most widely used

method is the upper air sounding of the atmosphere,

which is carried out by specialized artillery units,

which are equipped with specific technical means for

this purpose.

In the conditions of the artillery of the Czech

Army, the upper air sounding of the atmosphere is

carried out using the newly developed PODTEO

vehicle. This vehicle consists of a modified wheeled

M65E19WM 4×4 LMV Chassis Cab complete with

a CL 35ARM PODTEO trailer (Figure 1).

Figure 1: PODTEO vehicle.

PODTEO vehicle is equipped with:

‐ meteorological computer Marwin MW32,

‐ radiotheodolite RT20,

‐ CG31 antenna set,

‐ surface station MAWS201M Tacmet.

The operation of this vehicle is based on the

ability to perform the upper air sounding and surface

observations and measurements. Upper air sounding

is realized by releasing meteorological balloons filled

with hydrogen, on which Vaisala RS92-SGP, RS41-

SGP or RS92-D radiosondes are attached (Figure 2a).

(a) (b)

Figure 2: Radiosonde and radiotheodolite RT-20.

These radiosondes transmit meteorological data to

the RT20 radiotheodolite (Figure 2b). Upper air

sounding can be characterized as the main

component, because its goal is to find out the

meteorological conditions at individual heights, in

which artillery shells fly, and thus it is possible to

accurately determine the influence of meteorological

conditions on the flight of the shell.

However, surface observations and measurement

is also important, which is carried out using the

MAWS201M Tacmet surface weather station. The

data detected by upper air or surface measurements

are sent to the Marwin MW32 computer, which

compiles meteorological messages based on them,

and then distribute them to the fire direction centre,

automated fire control system, ballistic computer

and/or sensors.

3.2 Meteorological Messages

Meteorological messages represent the main output

of upper air sounding, as meteorological data are

transmitted by them. These data are:

‐ surface air pressure,

‐ surface virtual air temperature,

‐ surface wind direction and speed,

‐ mean changes in air density,

‐ mean changes in virtual air temperature,

‐ mean wind direction and speed,

‐ direction data and wind speeds in the lower

atmosphere,

‐ air density values and other data.

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Meteorological messages take the form of

a system of alphanumeric characters - data about the

state of the atmosphere in the vicinity of the

meteorological unit that detected these data, up to

a specified height. The determined data are presented

in the meteorological message in two-digit and multi-

digit groups. Individual places in groups have

a predetermined and unchanging meaning. The

groups are sorted in a fixed way and their order does

not change. This guarantees that the placement of

a certain number in a group clearly determines its

meaning, and the order of the group in the report

determines the name of the fact that the data in the

group describes.

Artillery uses following types of meteorological

messages:

- Meteo 11,

- METCM,

- METGM,

- METB3

- others.

These messages are passed directly to software

tools or, in the case of manual calculation of firing

data, they are de-rooted and the individual data used

in an analytical calculation. Without the supply of

meteorological data in the form of a meteorological

message, the artillery cannot fire with such accuracy

that it does not have to adjust the fire. (Blaha and

others, 2018) The ability to create and deliver them is

thus absolutely crucial for the element of surprise and

the resulting effectiveness of artillery fire.

3.3 Identified Downsides

Upper air sounding is advantageous in fact that it

provides up-to-date meteorological data for a given

area, such as an artillery emplacement. However, this

method of determining meteorological data has

several fundamental negatives. The first negative is

the spatial limitation on which the data obtained in

this way can be used. Another negative is the active

radiation of individual devices and the consequent

possibility of locating the meteorological station and

its subsequent destruction. This lack of upper air

sounding of the atmosphere is often observed in the

war in Ukraine, where meteorological assets are

targeted and destroyed so that the artillery does not

have meteorological data available and its fire is not

accurate. (Hrnčiar and Kompan, 2023)

The last of the main shortcomings is related to the

possibility of destruction or malfunction of sounding

devices. Considering that these are highly specific

means, the availability of which, as well as the

availability of specially trained personnel - their loss

(caused by any reason) is very noticeable. As a result

of the unavailability of meteorological data, in

addition to reducing the accuracy of fire control and

the resulting efficiency of artillery activity, it will be

reflected in an increase in the consumption of

ammunition, which is actually a commodity that, with

the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, is proving to

be absolutely crucial. The lack of metrological data

can thus have strategic consequences (Šlouf and

Others, 2023).

For the stated reasons, the effort is to replace the

upper air sounding of the atmosphere with other

methods, which will not be so materially (personaly)

demanding and thus will not be so sensitive to

detection. One of these ways is the acquisition of

gridded meteorological data from multiple sources

within the World Area Forecast Center (WAFC). This

method is advantageous in fact that it is not based on

the discharge of a meteorological radiosonde, and

thus the negatives associated with this means are

eliminated. Even so, this method has shortcomings,

which paradoxically revealed themselves during the

COVID-19 pandemic. One of the main sources on

which this method is based is the data detected by

aerial platforms flying at different altitudes. At the

time of the pandemic, when air traffic was

enormously suppressed, this was reflected in

a fundamental lack of data for compiling

meteorological messages. Although it was a non-war

reason, it can also be expected in the event of armed

conflicts, when civilian air traffic will not be operated

and military platforms will fly only in selected areas

with a lower level of risk from air defense. These

areas can be significantly far from the artillery

deployment areas and the obtained meteorological

data will not be as accurate as needed. The

availability of data obtained in this way can be quite

fundamentally limited even in armed conflicts.

The last of the main limitations is the ability to

distribute the detected meterological data in the form

of meteorological messages. (Blaha and Brabcová,

2010) In the current war in Ukraine, it is possible to

observe a significant capability of electronic warfare,

which is able to effectively disrupt electromagnetic

transmissions. Both the distribution of data from the

radiosonde to the ground station and the distribution

of data from the WAFC can be significantly difficult,

if not impossible. For these reasons, it is necessary to

look for methods that are not based on active

transmission, remote data download and will be

usable even with various degradation of capabilities

so that, even from the point of view of meteorological

preparation, the artillery is autonomous and can thus

Emergency Meteorological Data Preparation for Artillery Operations

253

fire accurately even in the unavailability of any

components of meteorological preparation.

4 EMERGENCY

METEOROLOGICAL DATA

PREPARATION PROJECT

Based on the analysis of the current situation and

findings from the war in Ukraine, two key facts

regarding the meteorological preparation of artillery

were identified. Specifically, it is the fact that

meteorological preparation continues to be an

absolutely necessary part providing key data for

artillery, without which it is not and will not be

possible to fire accurately in the future. The second

fact is that the current methods of obtaining

meteorological data have a number of shortcomings,

which can very easily cause the non-delivery of this

vital data for any reason.

Based on the evaluation of the current situation,

the research team defined a new project, called

Emergency METEO, whose goal is to ensure the

availability of meteorological data for the needs of

artillery fire control in case of degradation of the

capabilities of artillery meteorological units or other

sources from which artillery units obtain

meteorological data.

4.1 Overall Project Concept

The basis of the project is set on the intention of

obtaining an autonomous ability to generate

meteorological data (and from them to create

meteorological messages of any format) without the

need for sounding.

One of the initial insights that the research team

brought to the possibility of autonomous

determination of meteorological data was work with

fire control systems. Some of these software tools

make it possible to generate overall reports, for

example, for a climate zone and a season, if an actual

meteorological message is not available. Determining

firing data based on meteorological messages

generated in this way can generally be better than

working with basic (tabular) values. However, the

errors that arise when using such a message can also

be very large, and therefore it will be necessary to

always conduct fire adjustment. The applicability of

this method is thus close to zero, because on the basis

of the firing data determined in this way, it will not be

possible to conduct accurate fire in the form of

effective fire.

For this reason, the research team came up with

the idea of working on a similar basis of generating

meteorological data based on spatial and temporal

conditions, but with a significantly greater degree of

detail of the underlying data, which will allow the

generation of meterological messages with greater

accuracy, which will already allow firing without

adjustment.

Historical data was identified as the main source

of information, based on which the research team

would like to define a predictive (statistical) model

from which future meteorological data

(meteorological messages) would be generated.

The first step in the research is therefore to

determine the initial demands on the spatial and

temporal scale for the intended predictive model.

4.1.1 Spatial Scale

In the introductory part, the intention is to create a

predictive model that would cover the entire territory

of the Czech Republic.

In order to achieve this spatial coverage, it will be

necessary to obtain historical meteorological data

from the largest possible portfolio of measuring

stations, which would adequately cover the entire

territory of the Czech Republic. In this area, the first

problematic aspect arises regarding the requirements

of artillery for meteorological data and the resulting

requirements for character of sounding from a given

measuring station. One problematic part is the

maximum height from which meteorological data is

collected. The research project is primarily aim for

the firing of 155 mm effectors, which allow firing at

distances of up to 40 kilometers. As the distance

increases, so does the height that the shell reaches

during flight, and thus the height for which

meteorological data must be known. In the case of

155 mm effectors, it is necessary to work with height

parameters also related to shooting at a high angle,

when individual projectiles reach greater heights than

when shooting at a low angle (Balon and Komenda,

2006).

According to the basic data on the height scale of

155 mm shells, it is therefore necessary that only

those stations that carried out upper air sounding of

the atmosphere up to a height of 20,000 meters AGL

are selected for the collection of historical data.

(Figure 3) The reason why this fact is problematic is

that this type of sounding is carried out by only

a limited number of meteorological stations on the

territory of the Czech Republic. With a smaller

number of meteorological stations, the coverage and

therefore the accuracy of the predictive model

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decreases. The further away the place of application

of the aggregated meteorological data would be from

the meteorological station, the greater the error rate of

the predictive model will be.

It is this area that is a possible point of conflict on

which the research team plans to work so that it is

possible to find ways to also use data from

meteorological stations that carry out sounding, for

example by ground measurements or at lower

altitudes, which would increase the spatial coverage.

Figure 3: Maximum heights of artillery ammunition flight

path.

4.1.2 Temporal Scale

Another addressed area is the temporal scale for

which it will be possible to determine data from the

predictive model. As already mentioned, the artillery

needs to work with the most accurate data possible.

The intention of the research team is thus to prepare

a framework prediction of the meteorological

situation for individual days of the year, with the fact

that this general framework will be refined for sub-

parts of the given calendar day.

The output will be a predictive model within

which artillery specialists will be able to generate

a meteorological message for their position and

a specific part of the day of the year. Dividing the day

into individual time stages will be a separate area of

solution, because during the day we will find time

periods with higher weather stability and time periods

where changes occur (for example, sunrise and

sunset, noon, etc.).

4.2 Project Workflow

It is already clear that the creation of such a model

will take a large amount of time and work, as it will

primarily involve working with a large amount of

historical data, which must be analyzed, sorted and

aggregated into a predictive model that can be further

used in specific applications. The research team has

currently defined the successive steps of work on the

new project, which they would like to implement in

the short, medium and long term horizon.

4.2.1 Phase 1 (Short Term Horizon)

The first phase is primarily aimed at finding out

whether the proposed concept of emergency

determination of meteorological messages is

applicable in terms of accuracy, which means

whether the output meteorological data in the form of

a meteorological message is accurate.

Therefore, the predictive model in this phase will

be processed only for one measuring station (Prague)

and a retrospective time horizon of 20 years. The

meteorological station in Prague was chosen for the

reason, because it meets all the initial requirements, it

performs measurements up to the maximum height

(30-35 km) and the measured data is stored for further

use. For this station, it is thus possible to find

historical data up to 49 years back (since 1974).

However, the research team defined a limit of 20

years back, which is the time horizon of

measurements from which the predictive model will

be created.

Complex soundings of the atmosphere at this

measuring station take place three times a day (at 0, 6

and 12 hours UTC), outside these dates on request.

The predictive statistical model will thus be based on

the average values at the height corresponding to the

meteorological situation on the ground to determine

the meteorological conditions of individual days of

the year. This similarity will be defined by the so-

called typification of the synoptic situation. Within

Phase 1, the biggest challenge will be the processing

of a large volume of meteorological data and their

interpretation. One of the biggest problems identified

will be defining the average weather value for each

day of the year.

Approaches to defining the mean value vary, with

the research team intending to involve statistical

specialists in addition to experts in meteorology and

artillery to analyze the data and define the mean

value. In general, the biggest crisis point is the

determination of extreme values on individual days,

which can then affect the mean value. A typical

example of this can be, summer storms with hail,

which can significantly reduce the air temperature

and change the direction and speed of the wind. The

exclusion of such values will therefore have to be

implemented not only by the professional consensus

of artillery experts and meteorologists, but must also

Emergency Meteorological Data Preparation for Artillery Operations

255

be assessed from the point of view of mathematical

and statistical methods.

The main goal of this part will be to find out

whether it is possible to create an applicable

predictive model for artillery and whether it is worth

continuing the research. To achieve this goal,

a predictive meteorological model will be created for

the Prague area. This model will then be verified by

a practical experiment. This experiment will consist

in the fact that the output from the predictive model

is compared with the result from a real upper air

sounding of the atmosphere.

If the results of the experiment are satisfactory,

the research will continue in phase 2. If not, the

research team will look for critical points and try to

eliminate them.

At the moment, the research team is already

working on phase 1, when it analyzes classified data

from the meteorological station in Prague. The

intention of the research team is to obtain the first

outputs for the processing of the predictive model

already in the fall of this year.

4.2.2 Phase 2 (Mid Term Horizon)

If the predictive model is applicable, the research will

enter the second phase, the aim of which will be to

extend its validity to the entire territory of the Czech

Republic. This is a rather challenging part because in

phase 1 the predictive model will be defined for only

one meteorological station and will be checked for

validity at its location. The extension of the predictive

model to the entire territory of the Czech Republic,

however, brings further challenges that will have to

be overcome.

First of all, it is mainly about the fact that it will

be necessary to analyze and process meteorological

data from other meteorological stations. However, the

main problem will be the design of approaches for

aggregating the model to spaces outside the source

meteorological station so that the predictive model

still provides valid data.

In this case, it will be necessary to work with the

variability of the terrain, which will influence the

station from which the primary data will be obtained,

which interpolation method of height data will be

chosen, or which numerical model to use and also

how the model will eventually compare data between

multiple stations according to the position of the

firing position, for which meteorological data will

need to be determined.

The output of this part should be a predictive

meteorological model that will be applicable on the

entire territory of the Czech Republic. The

verification of its applicability will be realized by two

practical experiments. The first experiment will be

identical to the experiment based on the comparison

with the real upper air sounding of the atmosphere.

However, as part of phase 2, this sounding will be

carried out by the PODTEO vehicle, which will carry

it out in a selected area on the territory of the Czech

Republic, outside the stationary meteorological

stations.

The second experiment will be based on the use

of aggregated data during live artillery fire. In this

case, effective fires will be conducted with firing data

incorporating meteorological data from the upper air

sounding and predictive model. The difference in data

will then be compared, as will the accuracy of the

resulting fire.

4.2.3 Phase 3 (Long Term Horizon)

The long-term vision of the research implementation

is the advanced use of meteorological data and the

creation of a progressive version of a predictive

statistical model, which would not only determine the

meteorological report for a given part of an individual

day, but also work progressively with the measured

data view of the outlook for the next hours, days to

weeks.

By analyzing the measured data, it will be

possible to monitor their development over the years,

and the goal of the research team is thus to determine

the curve of the development of the meteorological

situation and the resulting ability to refine the

meteorological predictive model in the form of an

outlook for the next hours, days or weeks.

5 CONCLUSION

The Emergency METEO project is based on current

findings from the war in Ukraine, in which both the

benefits and negatives of modern technologies are

fully manifested. From the artillery point of view, we

can observe that modern technologies significantly

advance the capabilities and effectiveness of artillery.

It can be observed that accuracy and long range are

the absolute basis that define the final effect of an

artillery fire. At the same time, we can see how the

accumulation of fire is gradually abandoned and the

mass deployment of artillery as it was before is

already a thing of the past.

As artillery moves from mass deployment to

precision target engagements, providing supporting

data for fire control support is critical. The ability to

deliver meteorological data is thus absolutely

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essential. However, the environment of modern

conflicts is very demanding in terms of capability

degradation, where many modern technologies are

very sensitive to enemy activity or harsh conditions

on the battlefield. The Emergency METEO project

thus aims precisely at preserving the ability to supply

meteorological data in the event of a degradation of

this ability, which can have major consequences.

The intention is to create an aggregated predictive

meteorological model based on historical data, with

the use of which it would be possible to compile

meteorological messages without the need for upper

air sounding of the atmosphere or obtaining

meteorological data from other, external sources. The

solution to the research project is currently in the

initial phase when, after defining the content of the

project, the research team is developing possible

approaches to data evaluation. The initial design

works with the hypothesis that data from a predictive

weather model will be accurate and applicable to

artillery fire. The current phase of developing the

predictive model is intended to confirm or refute this

hypothesis, or to help identify problematic nodes.

If the research is successful and the predictive

meteorological model provides accurate data, it will

be a major step towards artillery autonomy. Artillery

units of the NATO armies will thus be able to fulfill

the tasks of the main type of branch with an expanded

capability.

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