Analysis and Research of Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Based on WAM-2layers Calculation Model

Jiaxiang Deng, Quan Quan and Guanyu Zhou

Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, China

Keywords: WAM-2layers, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region, Climate Change, Water Cycle.

Abstract: Moisture, as a key component of the atmospheric branch of global water cycle, are an important basis for

precipitation formation. The warming rate of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 40 years has been two

times of the global concurrent warming rate, and the water cycle and water resource allocation in the region

also vary with the temperature rise. Therefore, to study influences of changes in the water cycle structure in

the permafrost region on the regional precipitation structure, the Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-

2layers) was utilized to track moisture contributing to precipitation in the flood season (July and August) in

the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region from 2014 to 2016. By doing so, the research attempts to determine the

main moisture sources and moisture cycling efficiency in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Main

conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) due to the high elevation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,

precipitation in the region mainly concentrates in the south and the cumulative precipitation in the north is

obviously lower than that in the south. Except for 2016, the cumulative precipitation in August was always

higher than that in July in other years. 2) Due to the fact that the WAM-2layers model only analyzes

precipitation caused by evaporation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, the proportion of internal water

vapor contribution is only 25.5%, but the contribution of internal cycle water vapor is still the largest in the

region. 3) Due to characteristic of WAM-2layers tracing evaporation source of regional precipitation, it is

better at calculating regional precipitation recycling compared to other models. The precipitation formed by

evaporation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region accounts for 57.1% of the total precipitation, and the

precipitation recycling ratio of the plateau itself is 25.5%.

INTRODUCTION

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the average elevation

above 4,000 m, is the source of seven Asian rivers,

including the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, and

the Ganges River and it breeds about 20% of global

population. Therefore, it has huge influences on the

utilization of local water resources, agricultural

production, and socio-economic activities.

Considering this, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is also

termed as the world's third pole and the Asia's water

tower( Xu et al, 2008; Gao et al., 2015;Lin et al.,

2018). Due to the location of the plateau in the

middle troposphere, its thermodynamic action is

closely related to the intensity of Asian monsoon.

The climate change in the region not only affects the

climate pattern of China but also influences the

atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere

and the globe(Mann and Jones，2003; Jones et al，

2001; Kutzbach et al，1993).

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

the global land surface temperature in 2011 ~ 2020

had risen by 1.09℃ above the pre-industrial level

(Pascolini-Campbell, et al 2021). The global

warming intensification has become an indisputable

fact under the background of climate change. Such

situation is particularly significant in permafrost

regions including the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in

China. Previous research has pointed out that the

warming rate of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent

40 years has been two times of the global concurrent

warming rate (CHENG G D, et al.2019). The

temperature rise has caused wide cryosphere

variation in the region, in which the water cycle and

water resource allocation in the region accompany

the temperature rise. Therefore, to deeply study

influences of variation of the water cycle structure in

the permafrost region on the regional precipitation

structure, the moisture sources and moisture

148

Deng, J., Quan, Q. and Zhou, G.

Analysis and Research of Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on WAM-2layers Calculation Model.

DOI: 10.5220/0012276200003807

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd International Seminar on Artiﬁcial Intelligence, Networking and Information Technology (ANIT 2023), pages 148-155

ISBN: 978-989-758-677-4

recycling efficiency in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

region need to be comprehensively analyzed.

Moisture, as a key component of the atmospheric

branch of global water cycle, are an important basis

for precipitation formation, so the variation of

moisture sources and the precipitation recycling

have become research hotspots at present. Aiming at

the moisture sources and the precipitation recycling

process in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, lots of

researchers have proposed different ideas. In terms

of moisture sources, Curio et al. (Curio et al, 2015)

considered that the moisture recycling in the

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau itself provides moisture more

than the external moisture transfer to the regional

summer precipitation. They also highlighted the

influence of moisture recycling on precipitation in

the plateau. Gao et al. (Gao et al, 2015) believed that

relative to the recycling in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

itself, large-scale circulation variation and moisture

transfer outside the region are main causes for

changes in the precipitation in the plateau. In terms

of precipitation recycling, many researchers

estimated the recycling rate of annual mean

precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based

on hydrologic budget or stable isotope and found

that the recycling rate of annual mean precipitation

over the region is as high as 50% ~ 80% (Kurita and

Yamada, 2008; An et al, 2017). However, the

estimate obtained by moisture tracking is below 30%

(Zhang C et al, 2017; Li et al, 2019; Gao et al,

2020). At present, a consensus has not been reached

with regard to the contribution of various moisture

sources to moisture transfer in the Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau.

Inspired by the above studies, the current

research tracked moisture contributing to

precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region

in the flood season (July and August) from 2014 to

2016, attempting to ascertain main moisture sources

and moisture cycling efficiency in the region. The

remainder of the research is organized as follows:

Section 2 introduces the data, research region,

model, and methods. Section 3 provides main results

and discussed these results. Section 4 draws the

main conclusions.

DATA AND METHODS

2.1 Data and the Research Region

Data in the research include the precipitation,

evaporation, and atmospheric data, which were used

as the input data of the moisture tracking model.

These data were derived from the ERA5 reanalysis

dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the spatial

resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The dataset was selected

because it performs better among all reanalysis

datasets for the atmospheric cycle budget (Trenberth

et al,2011; Lorenz and Kunstmann, 2012). The

ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided various data,

including the horizontal radial wind, zonal wind, and

specific humidity of 1-hour pattern; surface pressure

of 1-hour pattern; a group of vertical moisture fluxes

(water fluxes formed by vertical water, and

north/east water vapor, liquid, and ice); and

precipitation and evaporation of 1-hour pattern.

Apart from these, the auxiliary data included the

shapefile format for country borders in the world on

Natural Earth (https:

//www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads), map of

provincial administrative boundaries of China from

a cloud platform of the Resource and Environment

Science and Data Center (http: //www.resdc.cn/

data.aspx?DATAID=200), and topographic data

from the Global Land One-kilometer Base Elevation

(GLOBE) (https: //www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/

topo/gltiles.html).

The research region is displayed in Fig. 1. The

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the research region, located

in the southwest of China (73°00′~104°47′ W,

26°00′~39°22′ N) is a plateau with the highest

average elevation in the world and also the largest

plateau in Asia. The region is rugged and mainly

composed of the Himalaya, Kunlun, and Gangdisê

Mountains. The region features unique and harsh

climate conditions, which are mainly shown as the

plateau climate and cold temperate climate.

Whereas, due to the thin atmospheres, precipitation

is little in the region. The summer mean

precipitation differs across different geographical

locations and elevations. At the mountain feet in the

east and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the

summer mean precipitation is generally high and can

reach 300 mm above, while little precipitation is

received in the middle and west of the plateau, with

the precipitation generally below 100 mm.

Figure 1: Study the district bitmap.

Analysis and Research of Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on WAM-2layers Calculation Model

149

2.2 Methods and Model

1) Water Accounting Model-2layers

Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers) is

an off-line Eulerian numerical model for

atmospheric moisture tracking (Van Der Ent,2014;

Van Der Ent et al, 2010) that is commonly used for

tracking the labeled water and backtracking the

evaporation entering the air, thus quantifying the

sink-source relationship of water . WAM2-layers is

an update version of the original WAM model and it

overcomes defects of the original WAM model in

moisture tracking in regions with high vertical wind

shear by dividing the vertical direction into two

layers. The model has been widely applied to much

research (Keys et al., 2017; van der Ent and

Tuinenburg, 2017; Guo et al., 2019). Compared with

the existing moisture tracking approaches using the

Lagrange method, such as FLEXPART and

HYSPLIT (Chu et al., 2017; Sodemann et al., 2008;

Sun and Wang, 2014), what is tracked by WAM2-

layers is actual surface precipitation water, while

that tracked by the Lagrange method is water release

in the air, rather than actual precipitation observed

on the ground (Huang and Cui, 2015a). Apart from

this, evaporation sources can be tracked for all

precipitation water in WAM-2layers (Zhang et al.,

2017a). The above characteristics render WAM-

layers more suitable for researching the surface

precipitation. The involved equation is

𝜕𝑀



𝜕𝑡

𝜕(𝑀



𝑢)

𝜕𝑥

𝜕(𝑀



𝑣)

𝜕𝑦

+ 𝐸



+ 𝑃



+ 𝜀



± 𝐹

,

where M

is the labeled atmospheric water vapor

in the lower atmosphere; t is time; u and v separately

represent zonal (x) and meridional (y) wind

components. E

and P

separately denote

evaporation entering and precipitation departing

from the lower atmosphere; ε

is the residual error;

, b is the vertical water transport between the

lower atmosphere and the top of atmosphere.

As the backtracking begins, precipitation enters

water layers of the atmosphere while evaporation

exists from water layers. The precipitation water

entering the water layers is called the labeled water,

which is well mixed with water in the upper and

lower two water layers. As the integral operation of

the model continues with time, the moisture

(including labeled water) have horizontal and

vertical motion in grid cells driven by prevailing

wind. At each time step, if the evaporation on the

surface grids is e and the mixing ratio in the lower

layer is r, then the grid contributes e×r moisture,

which finally fall in the target region as

precipitation. Meanwhile, the same amount of

labeled water (e×r) also reduces in the lower layer.

The process continues until all labeled water is

consumed in the air. More details can refer to

previous research (Van Der Ent,2014).

2) Moisture contribution rate and precipitation

recycling ratio

The moisture contribution rate is defined as a ratio

of the tracked total vapor waters (Elocal) in a region

to the total precipitation in a basin

(P=Plocal+Padvected). Apart from the moisture

contribution rate, the variable that also needs to

quantify is the precipitation recycling ratio of the

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. The precipitation

recycling ratio in a basin refers to the ratio of the

precipitation formed by local evaporation in the

basin (Plocal) to the total precipitation in the basin.

Here, it is assumed that all evaporation in the basin

will induce precipitation in the region. Therefore, the

precipitation recycling ratio is defined as

𝜌





𝐸



𝑑𝐴





𝑃𝑑𝐴



where A is the area of the research region.

RESTLTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Precipitation Over the

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in July and

August and Distribution of

Moisture Contribution

Figures 2a ~ 2f separately show the event-based

cumulative precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau in July and August from 2014 to 2016. It is

clearly shown in each figure that the precipitation in

the region mainly concentrates in the south, while

the cumulative precipitation in the north of the

plateau is obviously lower than that in the south.

Such phenomenon occurs because the northwest of

the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is so high that moisture

are blocked by mountains, fail to pass through the

plateau, and can only form precipitation in the south

of the region. Fig. 2f taken in August, 2016 shows

an interesting phenomenon: although some moisture

were blocked by mountains on the plateau and the

region of the highest cumulative precipitation was

still the south of the plateau, a considerable amount

of moisture passed through mountains and formed

precipitation in the north. As a result, the cumulative

precipitation in the month exhibited most uniform

spatial distribution among all months studied. Table

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1 lists statistical results of sums of event-based

cumulative precipitation and moisture contributions

in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. It can be seen

from the table that the event-based cumulative

precipitation was lowest (946,183.75 mm) in July,

2015 while highest (1,391,220.875 mm) in July,

2016. Over the three years, precipitation in August

was always higher than that in July in 2014 and

2015; however, precipitation in July was higher than

that in August in 2016. Over the three years, the

region received the maximum (2,357,069.75 mm)

and minimum cumulative precipitation (2,083,921.5

mm) separately in 2016 and 2015.

Figure 2a: Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibetan Plateau in 2014/07.

Figure 2b: Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibetan Plateau in 2014/08.

Figure 2c: Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibetan Plateau in 2015/07.

Figure 2d: Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibetan Plateau in 2015/08.

Figure 2e. Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibetan Plateau in 2016/07.

Figure 2f: Distribution map of cumulative precipitation

over the Tibe tan Plateau in 2016/08.

Table 1: Summary of contribution of moisture sources to

precipitation in the source area.

Date

2014 2015 2016

July August July August July August

Total precipitation(mm) 2277283 2083922 2357070

Precipitation(mm) 1118405 1158878 946184 1137738 1391221 965849

Moisture

Contributi

on(mm)

Northwest of Euras

41462 56912 34087 55726 71750 26020

Indian Ocean 224234 213892 129778 242648 334765 112079

South China Sea-B

ay of Bengal

62115 39893 27137 45611 45110 56721

Northeast of Eurasi

3398 13013 24590 6152 4491 7718

Qinghai-Tibet Plat

eau region

273094 280109 269063 283729 283729 297108

Pacific Ocean and

others

41036 56490 33764 54930 71168 27103

Monthly total 645339 660309 518419 688799 811014 526749

When calculating moisture contributions, the

research region was divided into six subregions, for

the convenience of better analyzing moisture

contributions of different subregions to precipitation

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151

in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. The six

subregions included: 1) the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

region; 2) the northwest of Eurasia; 3) the northeast

of Eurasia; 4) the Indian Ocean; 5) South China Sea-

Bay of Bengal; and 6) the Pacific Ocean and others.

It can be clearly seen from Figs. 3a ~ 3f that two

subregions greatly influencing the precipitation in

the research region are separately the plateau itself

and the Indian Ocean. In the region, the value of

moisture contributions of internal cycle in the

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region is significantly higher

than other regions and the internal cycle provides

lots of moisture, which remarkably affect the local

precipitation. The moisture brought by the southwest

monsoon from the Indian Ocean in July and August

also remarkably affect precipitation in the Qinghai-

Tibet Plateau region in the southwest of China. As

displayed in the figure, although the value of

moisture contributions provided by the Indian Ocean

is not higher than the internal cycle in the Qinghai-

Tibet Plateau region, the number of moisture is

much larger than that provided by the Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau region. Additionally, Fig. 3f shows that the

cause for the precipitation anomaly in the north of

the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in August, 2016 is

probably because moisture in the Pacific Ocean and

other regions entered the plateau from the east in the

month. Table 1 also shows statistical results of total

moisture contributions in various months. Same as

event-based cumulative precipitation, total moisture

contribution in August was greater than that in July

in 2014 and 2015; while total moisture contribution

in July was larger than that in August, 2016. July,

2015 and August, 2016 are separately two months of

minimum and maximum moisture contributions,

which are separately 518,419.17 and 811,013.93

mm.

Comparing WAM-2layers model’s tracking of

water vapor in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with other

models using WRF or other methods for water vapor

tracking(Curio et al, 2015; Gao et al, 2015), it was

found that internal water vapor contribution in

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region analyzed using WAM-

2layers is smaller than that of other methods. This

may be because WAM-2layers model tracks

precipitation back to its evaporation source, and

since evaporation precipitation accounts for only

about 57% of precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

region, 43% of non-evaporation precipitation is not

tracked, ultimately resulting in smaller internal water

vapor contribution analyzed by WAM-2layers model

compared to other models.

Figure 3a: 2014/07 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

Figure 3b: 2014/08 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

Figure 3c: 2015/07 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

Figure 3d: 2015/08 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

Figure 3e: 2016/07 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

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152

Figure 3f: 2016/08 Moisture contribution distribution map

for each region.

3.2 Moisture Contribution Rate and

Precipitation Recycling Efficiency

in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in July

and August

Figure 4 displays the moisture contribution rates of d

ifferent moisture sources to precipitation in the Qing

hai-Tibet Plateau region. As shown in the figure, the

tracked evaporated moisture contribute as high as 57

.1% to precipitation in the region. Moisture contribut

ed by the Indian Ocean that is to the southwest of the

region pass through the Indian Ocean and then are d

elivered along the east coast of Africa, finally passin

g through the Arabian sea and forming precipitation

in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. The precipitatio

n provided by these moisture accounts for about 18.2

% of total precipitation in the region. Moisture from

the northwest are transported constantly by stationar

y flows in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Central Asia a

nd Southern Europe, which form precipitation accou

nting for about 4.2% of total precipitation over the pl

ateau. The precipitation contributed by moisture fro

m South China Sea and Bay of Bengal is same as tha

t by moisture from northwest of Eurasia, both about

4.2%. The northeast of Eurasia that is to northeast of

research region contributes lowest to precipitation i

n Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, and moisture contrib

uted thereby only account for 0.9% of total precipitat

ion. Beyond above regions and internal cycle in Qin

ghai-Tibet Plateau contribute, moisture from other re

gions little to precipitation and they mainly come fro

m inland China. In some months, a few moisture ma

y come from Pacific Ocean and other regions, contri

bution of which amounts to 4.1% of total precipitatio

n of region. For precipitation recycling of Qinghai-T

ibet Plateau itself, only 25.5% of precipitation in reg

ion is from moisture evaporated in region itself. Con

clusion basically agrees with other conclusions regar

ding regional precipitation recycling efficiency calcu

lated using moisture tracking method.

Due to characteristic of WAM-2layers tracing

evaporation source of regional precipitation, it is

better at calculating regional precipitation recycling

compared to other models. Comparing result with

result analyzed using first generation WAM model,

contribution of internal water vapor cycle increased

by 7% compared to calculation result of first

generation model. In addition to reasons for climate

change in recent years, second generation model

divides atmosphere into two layers, simplifying

problem of gas flow in atmosphere, making

calculation results more accurate.

Figure 4: The tracked evaporated moisture contribute in

each zone.

CONCLUSIONS

WAM-2layers was utilized to identify and quantify

moisture sources for precipitation in the Qinghai-

Tibet Plateau region in July and August from 2014

to 2016. The main conclusions are summarized as

follows:

1) Due to the high elevation of the Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau, precipitation mainly concentrates in the

south of the region while the cumulative

precipitation in the north is obviously lower than

that in the south. Except for 2016, the cumulative

precipitation in August was always higher than that

in July in other years.

2) The value of moisture contributions of internal

cycle in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region is

significantly higher than those in other regions, and

the internal cycle provides numerous moisture,

which greatly influence the local precipitation.

Moisture brought by the southwest monsoon from

the Indian Ocean in July and August also greatly

influence the precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau in the southwest of China. The moisture

contribution rates of the two are separately 25.5%

and 18.2%.

3) Due to characteristic of WAM-2layers tracing

evaporation source of regional precipitation, it is

better at calculating regional precipitation recycling

Analysis and Research of Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on WAM-2layers Calculation Model

153

compared to other models. The precipitation formed

by evaporation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region

accounts for 57.1% of the total precipitation, and the

precipitation recycling ratio of the plateau itself is

25.5%.

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