Prediction of the Global Stomach Cancer Mortality in 2024
Jinyang Luo
University of Birmingham Joint Institute, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
Keywords: Stomach Cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Prevention, Survival, Predictive Factors, Death Rate.
Abstract: Despite a huge decrease in stomach cancer incidence and mortality over recent decades, it remains a
significant global health challenge. Stomach cancer was the fifth most typical factor contributing to cancer-
related fatalities globally in 2020. This study employs linear regression to forecast stomach cancer mortality
rates for 2024, considering historical data and various socio-economic and healthcare factors. The findings
suggest a favorable trend in stomach cancer mortality for most countries, with notable declines in the number
of deaths, and age-standardized death rate. At the same time, the percentage of stomach cancer deaths out of
total deaths is increasing. The research highlights the impact of advancements in technology and medical
treatments on reducing mortality rates and underscores the importance of early detection and prevention
efforts. While predicting results. The COVID-19 pandemic's limitations and potential impacts on cancer
detection and therapy are acknowledged in the report.
1 INTRODUCTION
Stomach cancer, also known as gastric cancer, was
the fifth most common cause of death from cancer in
both sexes and the world’s fourth leading cause of
cancer mortality in 2020 (WHO, 2020). As a result,
stomach cancer continues to pose a serious threat to
global health. Despite the medical knowledge and
healthcare infrastructure have improving these years,
the prognosis for stomach cancer patients continues
to be grim, especially in cases when the disease is
discovered at a terminal stage. To lessen the impact
of this terrible disease, prompt intervention and
effective prevention measures are important. In this
situation, predictive modeling can be extremely
useful for forecasting future trends in stomach cancer
mortality rates.
A comprehensive review of historical trends
should serve as the foundation for any projections of
future mortality rates. The research examines current
trends in stomach cancer mortality from 2017 to 2021
to determine whether death is declining or increasing.
Additionally, despite variations in the overall levels
of stomach fatality rates, this research examined
whether the rate of decreases was similar for all eight
nations worldwide.
The goal of this study is to use the linear
regression method to forecast the mortality rate from
stomach cancer worldwide in 2024. This research
wants to construct a complete model that can offer
predictions based on the death rates for this specific
year using historical data as well as numerous socio-
economic and healthcare indices. This forecast will
be a useful tool for academics, healthcare workers,
and policymakers as they develop plans and decide
how best to use available funding to fight stomach
cancer on a worldwide scale.
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
The population statistics and official death
certificates are taken from the WHO database for the
years 2017 through 2021. This research considered
the mortality of stomach cancer and other major
cancers. After all, the number of deaths, age-
standardized mortality rates, and mortality rate per
100,000 people for the year 2023 are estimated.
Forecasts of future changes in stomach cancer
mortality were made in several research, some of
which aimed at Europe and others at South America
(Kuzmickiene and Everatt 2021, Thuler 2022, Ilic and
Ilic 2022 & Santucci et al 2023). In general, lower
mortality rates were expected. One research predicted
a further decline of 9% for males and 4% for women
in 2023 based on trends in cancer mortality in Latin
America from 2015 to 2019 (Santucci et al 2023).
Some official death certification data for the
154
Luo, J.
Prediction of the Global Stomach Cancer Mortality in 2024.
DOI: 10.5220/0012809500003885
Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning (DAML 2023), pages 154-158
ISBN: 978-989-758-705-4
Proceedings Copyright © 2024 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda.
different country sites are considered: Iceland,
Czechia, Spain, UK, Austria, Armenia, Australia, as
well as the United States. For each country considered,
the Death rate per 100,000 population from 1970 up
to the most recent available year are included.
By comparing actual and anticipated deaths to
those anticipated countries based on the Age-
standardized death rate for 2017, this study calculated
the number of deaths that might have been prevented
for each nation from 2017 to 2021. All analyses were
performed using the software Anaconda Navigator
2.4.2 and the Python platform jupyter lab 3.5.3.
Linear regression is a fundamental statistical
method used for analyzing and modeling the
relationship between two or more variables. It aims to
establish a linear equation that best describes how
changes in one variable are associated with changes
in another. The method assumes a linear relationship
of the form
Y aX b=+
, where
Y
represents the
dependent variable, while X denotes the independent
variable, ‘a’ be the rate of change, and 'b' is the starting
point. Through a process of fitting the line to observed
data points, linear regression quantifies this
relationship, allowing for predictions, trend analysis,
and understanding the impact of variables on each
other.
The linear programming has a short but rich
history. It was first developed in the 1940s to solve
planning problems in wartime operations that are too
complicated. It was discovered three times
independently, and each time differently because of
Table 1: Eight countries data set.
Country Name
Year
Number of
Deaths
Percentage of stomach
cancer deaths out of
total deaths
Age-standardized death
rate per 100,000
standard population
Death rate per 100000
population
Armenia
2021
432
1.25625218
9.78090325
14.55463328
Armenia
2020
367
1.01465303
8.52479372
12.38507946
Armenia
2019
420
1.60397174
9.69124847
14.17730133
Armenia
2018
418
1.62323793
9.83644899
14.07880967
Armenia
2017
478
1.76221198
11.22876509
16.40964516
Australia
2021
1208
0.70450052
2.46263015
4.7025704
Australia
2020
1182
0.73279603
2.51606686
4.60723713
Australia
2019
1184
0.70074928
2.58788842
4.6724146
Australia
2018
1140
0.71852664
2.52897275
4.56609245
Australia
2017
1161
0.72074645
2.67074956
4.7206248
Austria
2021
691
0.75139732
3.3488901
7.71935939
Austria
2020
753
0.82206138
3.67199341
8.44469092
Austria
2019
732
0.8778452
3.77525779
8.24543738
Austria
2018
750
0.89312295
3.88081335
8.48636417
Austria
2017
822
0.98715023
4.27446178
9.34614187
Czechia
2021
973
0.69554153
4.39508836
9.26591657
Czechia
2020
974
0.75335102
4.39986262
9.10267188
Czechia
2019
984
0.87574091
4.36877318
9.22270239
Czechia
2018
1014
0.89798087
4.6694277
9.54224514
Czechia
2017
973
0.87309207
4.5704224
9.18832439
Spain
2021
4838
1.07333653
4.35576109
10.22156521
Spain
2020
4917
0.99579566
4.42807411
10.38312529
Spain
2019
5011
1.19679104
4.58566779
10.63785523
Spain
2018
5053
1.18137758
4.67937252
10.81345609
Spain
2017
5154
1.2140685
4.86953496
11.07604152
United Kingdom
2020
3996
0.58013432
2.76250152
5.95719638
United Kingdom
2019
4110
0.68111876
2.84163165
6.15298872
United Kingdom
2018
4220
0.68652491
3.06572065
6.5371719
United Kingdom
2017
4318
0.71248364
3.06265292
6.53843887
Iceland
2021
11
0.47169811
1.80880867
2.95286159
Iceland
2020
17
0.73752711
2.79330877
4.63894036
Iceland
2019
20
0.8783487
3.42760116
5.54688085
Iceland
2018
13
0.57573074
2.37763498
3.68563778
Iceland
2017
14
0.62611807
2.40406606
4.07688421
United States of America
2020
11233
0.33197103
1.9405988
3.39362841
United States of America
2019
11092
0.38853343
1.94450844
3.37076347
United States of America
2018
11043
0.38894691
1.97765217
3.37607034
United States of America
2017
11158
0.39658746
2.02720808
3.43233566
Prediction of the Global Stomach Cancer Mortality in 2024
155
the circumstances. The three discoverers were Leonid
Vitalyevich Kantorovich, Tjalling Charles Koopmans,
and George Bernard Dantzig. Then, in 1947, Dantzig
invented the simplex method. In the same year, John
von Neumann established the concept of duality.
After all, it is widely applied in fields such as
economics, finance, science, and machine learning for
its simplicity and interpretability.
3 PREDICT RESULTS AND
ANALYSIS
Table 1 compares observed data for the period of
2017–2019 with the percentage of cause-specific
deaths out of all deaths from stomach cancer in the
eight chosen countries for the year 2020–2021 (some
countries' data are only from 2017 through 2020 due
to the absence of data for 2021).
The options contain the number of deaths,
Percentage of stomach cancer deaths out of total deaths,
Age-standardized death rate per 100,000 standard
population, and Death rate per 100,000 population.
• The eight nations under investigation are
projected to have favorable mortality rates
from stomach cancer overall, with falls in the
number of deaths between 2017 and 2021
ranging from −46 in Armenia and −131 in
Austria (Figure 1 and Figure 2). At the same
time, the US showed the highest rates in both
periods, with several deaths 11233 in 2020 and
a projected 75 more than in 2017, while Iceland
reported the lowest ones, 14 people in 2017 and
11 in 2021.
• Table 1 reports the age-standardized death rate
per 100,000 standard population from stomach
cancer in both sexes at all ages in 2017-2021.
Downward trends were observed and predicted
in both sexes in most countries (Lin et al 2021).
• Figure 2 below shows the number of deaths
trend between 2017 and 2021 for eight
different countries. During the 21 years
considered, it is observed that a total of nearly
11,000 deaths in the US in 2020, which has
decreased by 8.3% compared to the number in
2000. At the same time, the UK and Spain
showed a similar downward pattern during the
period, with 2,500 deaths and 1,000 deaths
dropped respectively in the UK and Spain.
Figure 1: Eight countries’ number of deaths trend.
Table 2: The Prediction Data in 2024 for Eight Different Countries.
prediction in 2024
Actual Death Rate in 2021
6.80%
7.72%
4.66%
4.70%
11.62%
14.55%
3.33%
3.39%
5.13%
5.96%
9.12%
9.27%
9.56%
10.22%
3.53%
2.95%
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Figure 2: Eight countries’ death rate figure prediction per 100,000 population in 2024.
4 DISCUSSION
1) Except for Australia and Czechia, all of the
countries under consideration are expected to have a
decline in the overall mortality from stomach cancer
according to Table II. The US showed the lowest
death rate per 100000 population: 3.39% in 2020 and
3.33% predicted in 2024 while Armenia had the
highest ones, 14.55% in 2021 and 11.62% estimated
in 2024.
2) Except for Australia and the US, all nations
expect a lower death rate in 2024 compared to 2017-
2021 (Sung et al 2021). The UK showed the largest
decrease in the absolute number of cancer deaths,
almost 7.4% since 2017-2021, while Australia had the
largest percent increase, over 4%.
3) No matter how high or low the baseline risk for
stomach cancer was, the incidence and death trends
for the disease in both teenagers and adults are
practically unanimous. In a few nations, stomach
cancer mostly affects the elderly, with approximately
90% of cases being discovered beyond the age of 55.
In both sexes, the death rate from stomach cancer rises
steadily with age and is double in those over 70
(Anderson et al 2018). It should be noted that these
projections only consider the demographic changes
expected to occur in the mentioned countries.
4) However, a slightly reduced risk is linked with
higher levels of education and overall fruit and
vegetable consumption. The drop in stomach cancer
mortality that has been seen and expected across all
age groups and nations taken into account is due to
beneficial changes in these risk variables, including a
decline in the advancements in food preservation and
storage (Yoo et al 2020).
Few studies have looked at long-term changes in
the incidence rates of stomach cancer from a
worldwide viewpoint. Data from 108 cancer registries
across 43 nations on five continents were recently
evaluated, and the results showed that 41 of the 43
countries under study had declining incidence rates
through 2030 (Sung et al 2021). Other writers have
issued a warning over a rise in newly diagnosed
instances of stomach cancer in individuals under 50
who reside in industrialized nations, with
Helicobacter pylori infection being the primary cause
(Arnold et al 2020 & Waldum et al 2018).
5) Predicted results should be evaluated
cautiously due to the model's limitations, which
include its inability to identify significant long-term
cohort effects or very recent changes in trends.
However, because the research is restricted to large
countries, this problem of excessive random variation
is less of an issue. Except for the US and the UK,
errors in our estimates were less than 5% for all
cancers combined. This is due to the WHO database's
integrity of observed cancer deaths for 2021.
6) The estimations presented here do not account
for the effects of the coronavirus causing severe acute
respiratory syndrome. While the full extent of the
coronavirus disease (COVID) 2019 pandemic's
effects in various parts of the world is currently
unknown, delays in diagnosis and treatment are
anticipated to first lead to a brief reduction in cancer
incidences followed by an increase in the number of
advanced-stage diagnoses and cancer mortality
(Bonequi et al 2013 & Heer et al 2020).
Prediction of the Global Stomach Cancer Mortality in 2024
157
5 CONCLUSION
7) Stomach cancer, which ranks fifth for
incidence and fourth for fatality globally, will
continue to be a major cancer in the globe in 2020,
with over 1 million new cases and an estimated
769000 deaths.
8) Total stomach cancer mortality is predicted to
decrease in all countries considered, except Czechia
and Australia. The US showed the lowest death rate
per 100000 population: 3.39% in the number of
cancer deaths, almost 7.4% since 2017-2021, while
Australia had the largest percent increase, over 4%.
9) Compared to other areas worldwide, the US
ranked first for stomach cancer’s number of deaths
(with death rates around 3.39%, which ranked fourth),
following Spain's 4838 individuals (with death rates
of 10.22%, which ranked third) and the UK people
ranked third in number of death.
10) Moreover, trends in all countries showed a
downward movement during the 2000-2021 period,
which means that advancements in both technology
and medical treatments have led to a significant
decline in the mortality rate and number of deaths
associated with stomach cancer. Higher technologies
such as enhanced early detection methods, more
precise surgical techniques, and innovative therapies
have collectively contributed to this positive trend. As
a result, fewer lives are being lost to this devastating
disease.
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