Political Processes and Regional Security of Central Asia

Guzal Olimovna Sadieva

Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Keywords: Central Asia, Political Process, Kushan Empire, Regional Security, International Relations, International

Cooperation, Political Conflicts, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan. Geopolitical

Threats, the Trans-Caspian Route, and International Security.

Abstract: The article analyses the geographical location of Central Asia, changes in its governance throughout history,

common problems of the countries of Central Asia, and prospects for their solution. The article also provides

an analysis of the causes of local and national problems. Based on the analysis of the geopolitical situation of

countries, the interests of world powers (Russia, USA, China) in this region, as well as their natural resources,

available resources, trends, and development challenges are revealed. The main economic and geopolitical

threats to the modern political system of the countries of Central Asia have been identified, and the reasons

for their occurrence have been scientifically analysed. Scientific and practical recommendations for creating

a regional security system have been developed.

1 INTRODUCTION

The main difference between any regional system of

international politics is a set of common system-

forming factors that distinguish it from other systems

and determine its qualitative characteristics. Modern

Eurasia is the basis of international security, plays a

balancing role in global processes, and relies on the

stability of its strategic regions. Central Asia (CA) is

considered one of them.

Central Asia: The region includes Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and

Tajikistan, a landlocked region of Asia. It is located

in the center of the Eurasian continent, with a total

area of 3,882,000 km2 and a population of more than

60 million people (2017), with more than 82% of the

population living in the Aral Sea basin. It borders

Afghanistan and Iran in the south, China in the east,

and Russia in the west and north [1]. Contrary to

modern interpretations, there are varying definitions

of the Central Asian region, making the regional

policies of the world's major powers a complex issue.

This is due to the fact that the region itself is

heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to adopt a

uniform approach.

During the Middle Ages, until the Mongol conquests,

Central Asia experienced economic and cultural

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6556-8073

prosperity. The Kushan Empire and the Khorezmos

dynasty were the richest countries of that time.

Timur's empire later ruled the Middle East, modern-

day southern Russia, and the Delhi Sultanate.

Subsequent Central Asian states were transferred to

the Russian Empire and the USSR. This led to

changes not only in national values in the region, but

also in standards of governance and government

structure, and since 1924, the Central Asian region

has emerged as 5 states. Although the 1924

delimitation was carried out in accordance with the

national ethnic units of the region, this, in turn, also

led to disputes between the newly formed states over

the border issue.

After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the question

of a strategy for modernizing economic and political

systems in the process of forming independent

Central Asian states became the main problem for

their leaders. However, nevertheless, for more than

30 years, every 5 countries were able to build their

own statehood. Although, of course, these countries

differ from each other in socio-economic indicators,

the problems that must be solved in the region require

the same approach from these countries.

After gaining independence, the countries of Central

Asia had several ways of relationship.

Sadieva, G.

Political Processes and Regional Security of Central Asia.

DOI: 10.5220/0012935000003882

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies (PAMIR-2 2023), pages 947-953

ISBN: 978-989-758-723-8

947

The first path: striving for the West as a developing

economy. But in the West, there was no inclination

towards the newly independent states of Central Asia,

which did not yet have a stable government. The

second path: was the path of rapprochement with

Arab countries and the Muslim world, and these

countries were not accepted because they viewed the

Central Asian countries as countries that did not

understand Islam well.

Third way: Central Asian countries that have border

disputes and are not favored by the West and the

Muslim world understand the need for unification.

They realized that the problems that had accumulated

in the region needed to be solved together. As a result,

the heads of state of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and

Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement in 1994 to create a

unified economic environment. The main attention

was paid to the issue of opening customs between

countries. Fourth Way: Began in 1998. The stage of

revision of integration ideology has arrived. This

required abandoning concepts based on mutual

ambitions and developing common mechanisms. The

implementation of agreements on the use of water and

energy resources has begun. If only the state could

organize large-scale massacres, such an opportunity

would appear for individuals.

2 RESEARCH AIM

Analysis of common and ongoing problems in

Central Asia. Conducting a systematic analysis of

analytical information provided by think tanks that

analyze international politics and study its general

aspects. It is about finding solutions to existing

problems.

3 METHODOLOGY

The article widely uses empirical research methods,

as well as methods of content analysis, induction, and

deduction.

4 RESULTS

This research work was carried out within the

framework of political sciences and can be used in the

analysis of foreign policy activities in Uzbekistan, as

well as in training programs in foreign policy and

applied sciences in higher educational institutions.

5 LITERATURE REVIEW

The article analyzes the opinions of the following

experts, including Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of

the Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB),

Almaty, Kazakhstan (July 25, 2023).

He notes that in the region’s sectoral structure, there

are four key “pain points” that produce the largest

volume of greenhouse gas emissions and which

should be given special attention: fugitive emissions,

electricity and heat production, agriculture, and

construction. These industries produce about 80

percent of Central Asia's greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal power continues to account for a significant

share of the region's total greenhouse gas emissions.

This leads to high emissions in the electricity and heat

generation sectors, as well as in construction. For

example, the electricity and heat sector produces 42.5

percent of greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakhstan,

while buildings account for 37.5 percent in the

Kyrgyz Republic. He is also confident that the Region

needs additional investment in the development of

new generating capacities, including hydroelectric

power plants, solar and wind power plants,

construction and modernization of water treatment

facilities, and so on. Climate finance instruments

provided by multilateral development banks (MDBs)

for adaptation and mitigation can further accelerate

the region's low-carbon transformation. Experts

Rakhimbek Abdrakhmanov - economist and

coordinator of the Kazakhstan School of Applied

Policy (KSAP) and Kamshat Zhumagulova - chief

analyst of the Kazakhstan School of Applied Policy

(KSAP) (August 16, 2023) in their article “Trans-

Caspian route:: Kazakhstan’s gateway to Europe”

argue that, In particular, for Kazakhstan, the

development of the Middle East corridor will provide

greater access to world markets. On August 6,

Ukraine issued a coastal notification, declaring the

waters of six Russian ports on the Black Sea (Anapa,

Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and

Taman) a “military threat” zone. This comes after

Russia last month withdrew from an agreement that

would have allowed Ukrainian grain to be safely

exported. Moscow said it considers all ships heading

to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea to be carriers of

military cargo, and the countries under whose flags

these ships are registered to be participants in the war

on Kiev's side. They also argue that given that oil is

the main export commodity that ensures the influx of

foreign currency into Kazakhstan, trade with the

European Union is a critical element of the country’s

economic stability and security architecture.

Katherine Putz, editor-in-chief of The Diplomat,

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argues that the Central Trans-Caspian Network

(CTN), crossing southern Kazakhstan, provides “the

most sustainable transport links between Europe and

Central Asia,” especially with a “two-tier catchment

area.” an area covering 300 km north and 600 km

south of the main route is taken into account, thereby

affecting all five Central Asian states. This so-called

“Middle Corridor” covers four of the five most

populous cities in Central Asia (Tashkent, Almaty,

Bishkek, and Shymkent).

The study, however, notes two conditions necessary

for "the broader benefits of regional development to

materialize" and these could pose significant

obstacles for Central Asia: "all countries provide

equal and fair access to their network to all regional

peers and players" and "countries are investing in

expanding their domestic network, aligned with

international corridors and cross-border connections

in a coordinated manner”.

According to Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, president of

the consulting firm Second Floor Strategies in

Washington, D.C., Kazakhstan is betting big on the

Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR),

or Middle Corridor, as an alternative to entering

European and international markets by bypassing

Russia. There are many factors to consider to

determine whether a corridor will thrive in the short

or long term; One of the vital topics is the future of

Kazakhstan’s ports[3]. When discussing the

“Middle Corridor,” the emphasis is naturally on

energy products such as oil and gas. This is

understandable since Kazakhstan’s main exports are

related to energy. Due to the war in Ukraine,

Kazakhstan, and Europe are seeking to find

alternative ways to bypass Russian territory and

minimize their dependence on the Caspian Pipeline

Consortium (CPC) pipeline (the infamous Trans-

Caspian Pipeline will not be built any time soon (the

infamous Trans-Caspian Pipeline will not be built

anytime soon).

In Central Asia, the strengthening of independence

coincided with a recession that caused a decline in

economic ties. This situation has led to a decline in

overall gross national production as well as

agricultural production, which accounts for about

30% of GNP.

In our opinion, today all 5 Central Asian republics

have realized that in times of global change, they

must join forces in ensuring peace and stability in the

region, jointly searching for a solution to the political

situation in Afghanistan and supporting the Afghan

people. This was due to the following factors:

 The stability and security of the countries of

Central Asia are the common interests of the

countries.

 Infrastructural restrictions, low quality of

human capital, climate change, difficulties

in maintaining social stability, the need to

transform economic models, sanctions

pressure - all this forces the Central Asian

countries to act together.

 For Central Asian leaders, fear of a surge in

radical extremism and other factors have

played a decisive role in containing them.

 From time immemorial, the socio-economic

development of the region has depended on

water and land resources.

 The countries of Central Asia are interested

in minimizing such global risks as

international terrorism, radicalization,

transnational crime, and illicit trafficking in

weapons and drugs.

 Central Asia has always been culturally

diverse. Despite the high level of emigration,

ethnic minorities still make up 15 to 30

percent of the population of the Central

Asian republics.

 In Central Asia, areas of compact residence

of ethnic minorities remain.

 Until now, the most common language in the

region is Russian. Supporting the Russian

language as a means of interethnic

communication, as a regional lingua franca,

will not only help maintain stability in the

region - the Russian language gives access

to the Russian labor market, higher

education, technological solutions, and a

huge layer of Russian culture. Not using this

tool, much less artificially limiting it, can be

a big mistake.

 The geographical location of Central Asia

has both positive and negative sides. On the

one hand, the countries of Central Asia are

located at the intersection of north-south and

east-west trade routes, which is very

beneficial from the economic side. On the

other hand, the territories of these countries

are located between powerful neighbors

such as Russia to the north, China to the east,

and the troubled Islamic states of

Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan to the south

and southwest. Since the Central Asian

countries gained independence, a previously

less prominent geostrategic issue has been

the geographic isolation of Central Asia.

Political Processes and Regional Security of Central Asia

949

 Became more obvious. In this regard, we can

say that the region is isolated from global

political and economic flows and does not

have direct access to international waters.

Due to their geopolitical position, the states

of Central Asia, on the one hand, cooperate

not only with each other, but also with their

powerful neighbors (mainly Russia and

China), and on the other, they are trying to

find new points of entry into the world

market.

 In addition, for the countries of Central Asia,

first of all, the priority in foreign policy has

always been economic interests and security

issues in the region in relations with major

powers, and in this regard, the United States

is much inferior to Russia and China.

Despite Western sanctions, the countries of

Central Asia are developing economic

relations with Moscow and Beijing, since

there is no other alternative option, and since

Blinken’s announcement in February of this

year to issue $25 million to mitigate the

consequences of sanctions in the region

demonstrates a very weak economic position

and Washington's intentions.

Over the past three decades, the security situation in

Central Asia has been generally stable, especially

compared to the Middle East. It should be noted that

today Central Asia is faced with challenges that can

only be overcome by joining forces.

Today, leaders of the countries in the region are

striving to revive the Great Silk Road. Railways and

transport roads have been built between

Turkmenistan and Iran, and between Kazakhstan and

China, which makes it possible to develop

cooperation with Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, and other

countries in the region. In 2009 - 2014, the

Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran International

Transport Corridor North-South Railway was built in

Central Asia, connecting Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,

and Iran. Another name is the Eastern Route North-

South. A recent European study on sustainable

transport links to Central Asia concluded that the

Central Trans-Caspian Network (CTN), passing

through southern Kazakhstan, provides “the most

sustainable transport link between Europe and

Central Asia”, especially given the “two-tier zone”

coverage." It affects all five Central Asian countries

as it covers an area extending 300 km north and 600

km south of the main route. This so-called

“intermediate corridor” covers four of the five most

populous cities in Central Asia (Tashkent, Almaty,

Bishkek, and Shymkent) (International Fund for

Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS)(n.d)- Asian Development

Bank (ADB). (n.d.)).

It is worth noting that Central Asia is becoming one

of the important centers of economic growth.

According to many experts, the total GDP of the

countries of the region over the past four years has

grown by 25% and exceeded $300 billion. At the

same time, intraregional trade is also growing

dynamically: in 2016-2019, the volume of trade

between Uzbekistan and the countries of the region

more than doubled and amounted to $5.2 billion.

Trade with Kyrgyzstan increased 5 times, with

Tajikistan - 2 times, with Turkmenistan - 2.6 times,

with Kazakhstan - almost 2 times.

Western countries do not know how to deal with

Russia and China at the same time. The best solution

they have found is the threat to the security of Central

Asia, where Russia and China have common security

interests. This will prevent China from focusing on

the Pacific region and Russia from focusing on

Europe. The countries of Central Asia cannot cope

with these challenges on their own; a number of

restrictions prevent this. For example, low quality of

human capital, lack of technology, lack of capital.

Times have changed, and the concept of

technological sovereignty is more relevant than ever.

It is obvious that the countries of Central Asia cannot

independently develop complex technological chains,

but they can use the potential of industrial

cooperation within the EAEU and participate in joint

technological projects with Russia.

There are four key pain points in the region's sectoral

structure that produce the largest amount of

greenhouse gas emissions and which should be given

special attention: fugitive emissions, electricity and

heat production, agriculture, and construction. These

industries produce about 80 percent of Central Asia's

greenhouse gas emissions. Coal power continues to

account for a significant share of the region's total

greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to high

emissions in the electricity and heat generation

sectors, as well as in construction. For example, the

electricity and heat sector produces 42.5 percent of

greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakhstan, while

buildings account for 37.5 percent in the Kyrgyz

Republic. The region needs additional investment in

the development of new generating capacities,

including hydroelectric power plants, solar and wind

power plants, construction and modernization of

water treatment facilities, and so on. Climate finance

instruments provided by multilateral development

banks (MDBs) for adaptation and mitigation can

further accelerate the region's low-carbon

transformation.

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950

6 DISCUSSIONS

Uzbekistan occupies a strategic position in the heart

of Asia and plays an important role in ensuring the

security and stability of the entire continent.

It is difficult to overestimate the role of the Central

Asian Summit, initiated by the President of

Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the formation of

a new political atmosphere in Central Asia. Regular

contact at the highest level allows the region to fully

realize its potential. Meetings at the level of partner

organizations also play an important role in

constructive dialogue.

It should be noted that only in 2023, the President of

the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev made an

official visit to 13 countries. At these meetings, the

head of state mainly discussed issues of bilateral

relations, economic cooperation, and the

implementation of previously reached agreements, as

well as issues of regional security and stability. It

should also be noted that there is not a single visit or

meeting at which Sh. Mirziyoyev did not raise the

issue of ecology in the region. From 2015 to 2021,

Central Asia received US$8.9 billion in green finance

from MDBs. In particular, Uzbekistan received

almost half of the total amount – $4.4 billion (49.1

percent). Reforms launched in Uzbekistan in 2017

(currency and price liberalization, customs and tax

reforms, etc.) have increased the flow of climate

finance. Kazakhstan received $2.6 billion (29.4

percent), Tajikistan received $1.1 billion (12.1

percent), and the Kyrgyz Republic received $0.8

billion (9.2 percent).

And also, the President of Uzbekistan has repeatedly

spoken about the importance of developing common

approaches of the world community towards

Afghanistan, without bringing the situation to the

international isolation of the state and a large-scale

humanitarian crisis. Of particular note is the fact that

Uzbekistan continues to supply electricity to

Afghanistan. It provides humanitarian assistance, and

in 2022 the country contributed to the restoration of

the airport in Mazar-i-Sharif.

Central Asian countries are able to attract more

external climate finance due to higher physical

climate risk. Without external funding, the green

transition in Central Asia will become a burden on

national budgets. Implementing green projects, low-

carbon technologies and digital solutions to mitigate

climate change and protect the environment is highly

capital-intensive. For example, according to some

estimates, achieving carbon neutrality will cost

countries in the region between 100% (Kyrgyz

Republic) and 300% (Republic of Kazakhstan) of

their gross domestic product (GDP). However, there

are several ways to attract green finance for low-

carbon development in the region.

First, countries can provide better, more cost-

effective projects and develop links with MDBs

operating in the region. For example, Turkmenistan

has great potential to expand cooperation with MDBs,

especially in the areas of modernizing extractive

industries and reducing fugitive emissions.

Uzbekistan can serve as an example of successful

cooperation between Central Asian countries and

MDBs. Second, Central Asian governments can

focus on investing in renewable energy. Central Asia

has great potential in hydro, solar, and wind energy.

At the same time, countries must continue to develop

balancing energy capacities, such as gas and nuclear

power. In particular, Central Asia has great potential

for the development of nuclear energy, since

Kazakhstan is the world's largest producer of natural

uranium and one of the main producers of nuclear fuel

components.

Thirdly, external support can be linked to the

development of domestic policies. Equally important

are internal regulations, such as the Green

Classification Law. For example, Kazakhstan has

already adopted its own taxonomy of “green” projects,

and in Kyrgyzstan, a taxonomy of “green” finance is

being developed. Fourth, supranational support

from multilateral agencies can be effective in building

regional capacity. For example, countries can share

regional experiences successfully implement

measures, and disseminate energy efficiency

technologies in the region. Improving energy

efficiency is a key factor in reducing carbon intensity

and should be part of green transformation strategies

in agriculture, industry, and construction.

Fifth, moving to a regional ESG (environmental,

social, and governance) finance market would be

useful not only for issuing ESG bonds but also for

attracting private capital to green projects. An

international financial center in Astana could ensure

the development of green finance policies and green

finance instruments in Kazakhstan and the Central

Asian region as a whole.

Finally, governments, international development

agencies, and the private sector must work together to

combat climate change. More financial resources,

better national policies, and greater cooperation are

needed to control the risks associated with climate

change. This can subsequently become a valuable

factor in long-term and sustainable economic growth.

For the Central Asian states, Russia and China remain

one of the main factors in their foreign and security

policy, but for the United States, this region is of

Political Processes and Regional Security of Central Asia

951

interest only from the point of view of diplomatic

interaction with Moscow and Beijing. In this regard,

it can be expected that in the medium term, US

attempts to undermine stability in the Central Asian

states will be intensified, perhaps relying on the most

radical religious elements of the Washington tradition.

Central Asia is a testing ground for security tools that

Beijing has yet to use elsewhere.

Unlike Russia, which views its security interests in

Central Asia in terms of national security and

geopolitical competition, China is content to protect

its commercial interests and ensure that events in

neighboring countries do not jeopardize political

stability at home. Xinjiang Province, located in the far

west of China, borders Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and

Tajikistan and is much more similar in culture,

ethnicity, language, and religion than other parts of

China. Since the countries gained independence

following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Beijing

has sought to establish friendly ties with them, fearing

they could otherwise inspire or fuel separatism in

Xinjiang.

Another concern for Beijing is that Central Asia could

become a bridge for jihadists from Afghanistan to

join forces with Uyghur extremists in Xinjiang,

especially after the 2016 suicide bombing of the

Chinese embassy in Bishkek, the capital of

Kyrgyzstan. But especially since the attack on

Bishkek, China has held dozens of joint military

exercises with its Central Asian counterparts and held

hundreds of high-level meetings with its military and

intelligence agencies. He also expanded cooperation

in military technology, took part in numerous

exchange programs linking Central Asian officers

with Chinese military universities, and conducted

regular joint border patrols.

These exchanges have turned Central Asia into a

testing ground for security tools that Beijing has yet

to use elsewhere. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, it

pioneered the use of private security companies to

protect Chinese investment projects. Another such

experiment has been sending Chinese paramilitary

police units to patrol and guard foreign borders:

China has established two such bases on the Tajik-

Afghan border since 2018, acting as a force multiplier

for Tajik authorities.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may be tempted to

prioritize supplies to China in order to win the favor

of their strategic partner and earn foreign exchange

earnings, but then this will not be enough for their

own people, and repeated domestic energy crises

threaten the stability of their political regimes.

In our opinion, the optimal solution would be to start

importing gas from Russia and Turkmenistan, since

the infrastructure for pumping gas from these

countries has already been created. Like Russia,

Turkmenistan is a global gas giant: it has the world's

fourth-largest reserves and annual production of more

than 80 billion cubic meters. In 2022, Kazakhstan and

Uzbekistan agreed for the first time on the direct

import of Turkmen gas. However, relying only on

Ashgabat will not solve the problem.

7 CONCLUSIONS

To summarize, we can admit that the countries of

Central Asia still remain the most stable region in

Russia’s foreign relations in the post-Soviet space.

The expected challenges and threats to stability are

mainly related to internal factors, and only the

interaction of Russia, China, and the countries of

Central Asia will determine how dangerous these

challenges and threats will become in the coming

years.

Political processes in the countries of Central Asia

can serve as a good example of the thesis of modern

political science about the attractive power of

democratic ideals. In the modern world, democratic

ideals are popular among leaders of non-democratic

regimes, who try to present their regimes as

transitional systems that will develop into democratic

regimes in the future.

Democratic regimes will become democratic regimes

in the future. In this case, it is necessary to take into

account the historical and sociocultural features of the

political process in Central Asia. Many analytical

schemes created by Western political science have

not yet received empirical confirmation.

The real processes of democratization and

modernization of political systems are very different

from those described by theory. Political science still

has a lot of work to do to adequately describe the

processes that political science still has a lot of work

to do to adequately describe the processes taking

place here.

 Central Asian countries could attract more

external climate finance due to the high

physical climate risk in the region. Without

external sources, the green transformation of

Central Asia will become a burden on

national budgets. Implementing green

projects, low-carbon technologies and

digital solutions to mitigate climate change

and protect the environment is a very

capital-intensive measure.

 Supranational support from multilateral

institutions can be useful for enhancing

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regional competence. For example,

countries could share regional experiences

successfully implement measures, and

disseminate energy-efficient technologies in

the region. Increasing energy efficiency is

key to reducing carbon intensity and should

be part of a green transformation strategy for

agriculture, industry, and construction.

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