Security, Challenges and Solutions of Water Geopolitics in Central

Asia

Suhrob Buranov

and Kahramon Haqberdiev

Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Keywords: Geopolitics, Political Process, Central Asia, Civil Society, Security, Water Geopolitics, Sea Power.

Abstract: The article is devoted to the study of water resources in Central Asia, and the issues of meeting the needs of

the growing population. The purpose of the article is to analyse the need for water resources and political and

geopolitical problems that may arise in the future between Uzbekistan and other countries in the region.

1 INTRODUCTION

The water factor is a matter of the future. 96% of the

water on the globe is salt water from the oceans and

seas, and only 3% is fresh water. In the next ten years,

the world's freshwater reserves may be halved again.

Currently, 80 countries worldwide have a shortage of

fresh water, and two billion people suffer from a lack

of fresh water. Central Asia is a geopolitically

important region with a rapidly growing population

and, at the same time, limited water resources. As

long as the water problem is becoming global, there

are serious grounds for talking about water

geopolitics.

2 DISCUSSION

In order to evaluate the geopolitical position of water,

it is necessary to take into account some theories of

geopolitics. For example, American Admiral A.

Mehen writes in his book "The Influence of Sea

Power on History (1660-1783)" that having sea

power is the main factor of world domination. It

should be noted that A. Mehen's "Sea Power" theory

has had an impact on the geopolitics of American and

European countries for many years and has become a

component of imperialist policy. Another author of

water-related geopolitical programs and teachings is

N. Spykman. In contrast to H. Mackinder's model, N.

Spykman

offers his version of the geo-political

https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2725-3767

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Figure 1. Heartland (land areas) vs Rimland (coastal areas)

scheme. According to his idea, the way to world

domination is not the Heartland, but the Rimland

(coastal areas).

N. Spykman changes H. Mackinder's formula as

follows: "Whoever rules over Rimland will rule over

Eurasia, and whoever rules Eurasia will take the fate

of the world into his hands." This sentence can be

changed a little and it can be said: "Whoever controls

the waters of Eurasia, controls the world." Of course,

geopolitical ideas on the control of water areas are

still very relevant today.

According to a 2012 report by the US Central

Intelligence Agency, "The misallocation of water

causes many conflicts. Water bodies are widely used

for political pressure worldwide, and there is also the

possibility of using water as a weapon." According to

Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council

of Russia, there is no question that wars will start in

the world over drinking water. It is known that Russia

is one of the countries with low water resources. 20%

of fresh water on Earth is stored in Lake Baikal alone.

Buranov, S. and Haqberdiev, K.

Security, Challenges and Solutions of Water Geopolitics in Central Asia.

DOI: 10.5220/0012935400003882

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies (PAMIR-2 2023), pages 959-962

ISBN: 978-989-758-723-8

959

According to the Global Water Intelligence magazine,

which specializes in water issues and is published in

many languages of the world, the annual turnover in

the water market is close to the amount spent for

military purposes around the world. This is just the

beginning of the process.

In 2006, the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain

appealed to the state leadership and called to prepare

for a war that could occur due to the shortage of

drinking water throughout the globe. According to

John Reid, the Secretary of Defense at that time, such

a war would cover several regions of the world at the

same time. The water situation in Central Asia is

more worrying than expected. We don't want to talk

about the tragedy of the island in detail, but we think

it will be enough to take a look at its disastrous

appearance.

Figure 2. The drying up of the Aral Sea

There is another danger for Central Asia, which is

somewhat neglected. This is also the drying up of the

Caspian Sea. On October 8, 2022, the photos of the

Caspian Sea taken in 2006 and 2022 were published

the NASA website. In the photos taken 16 years

Figure 3. The drying up of the Caspian Sea

apart, it can be seen that the water has decreased

significantly in the northern part of the Caspian,

which is quite shallow, in the areas adjacent to the

territory of the Mangystov region of Kazakhstan.

According to Kazakh ecologists, the decrease in

water in the Caspian is caused not only by climate

changes but also by the blocking of the rivers flowing

into it and the construction of many hydroelectric

power plants. Since the water of the Caspian Sea

began to decrease, the situation is being monitored by

the scientists of the interested countries. According to

their reports, seawater is decreasing by 7-10

centimeters every year.

As the water of the Caspian Sea decreases, a very

large area in its shallow northern and northeastern

parts opens up and turns into a desert. As a result, the

sands on the dry bottom of the sea become a great

danger not only for Central Asia but also for the

ecology of Iran and the Caucasus. Taking into

account that a part of the air currents coming from the

Arctic passes over the Caspian Sea and the wind

currents that form mainly blow from north to south

and from west to east, the sand storms that arise from

the desert instead of the sea mainly affect Iran and

Central Asia. moves towards

Four actors and the politics of the countries upstream

and downstream of the transboundary rivers of

Central Asia play an important role in the possibility

of water becoming a weapon of geopolitics in Central

Asia:

2.1 Russia

Russia has its own "contribution" to the origin of

water problems in Central Asia. According to the

"absolutely confidential" letter sent by the Governor-

General of Turkestan von Kaufman from Tashkent to

Emperor Alexander II on November 14, 1872, the

issue of the Aral Sea was already on the agenda as a

serious problem at that time. In particular, it was

written in that letter: "...we must take such a course

that the water of Amudarya and Syrdarya never

reaches the sea. Water from these rivers should be

used to irrigate cotton fields until the last drop. As

soon as the water soaks into the cotton fields, the

island will dry up completely. Then we divert

Siberian rivers to fill the sea. Only then can we

preserve Turkestan's dependence on Russia forever."

In this regard, no one can guarantee that the current

Russia, which is constantly promoting its old

imperialist ambitions, will not turn the water factor

into a weapon of geopolitics in Central Asia.

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2.2 China

China's geopolitical plans for Central Asia are very

abstract and therefore potentially dangerous. This

aspect is also reflected in the issue of water. However,

the natural dam of Lake Sarez, which is located in

Tajikistan and holds 19 million tons of water, poses a

serious threat to Central Asia. Most importantly,

according to some information, this lake was sent to

China as a "gift" for use in exchange for loans. The

statement that the Chinese use this lake for the

purposes of "scientific investigation" seemed to

confirm these rumors. If we consider now, if China

poses a geopolitical threat to Central Asia through this

lake in the future, the question of how the downstream

countries will behave may cause another problem.

2.3 The USA

In this process, the "Greater Central Asia" project of

the American politicians, as well as the plans to direct

the Amudarya water courses to Afghanistan, attracted

attention. In particular, the Koshtepa Canal project,

which is being built by the Provisional Government

of Afghanistan under the leadership of the "Taliban"

in the Amudarya basin, will not fail to worry the

countries located downstream. The Khush Tepa

Irrigation and Power Generation Feasibility Study is

one of USAID's most significant technical and

engineering studies in Afghanistan. The Study is

implemented by AACS Consulting under USAID's

Strengthening Watershed and Irrigation Management

(SWIM) activity managed by AECOM International

Development, Inc./DT Global. Experts from the

Moscow State University Center for the Study of

Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space are

concerned that Kabul's projects could become a

disaster for all of Central Asia. According to

specialists, when the “Koshtepa Canal” is put into

operation, the situation with the water divide in the

region will deteriorate sharply. This is despite the fact

that in recent years, all Central Asian countries have

been increasingly feeling the effects of water scarcity.

Figure 4. Koshtepa canal project

US funding of TAPI, CASA 1000, and possibly the

Trans-Afghan Transport Corridor will allow it to

maintain a strong presence in the region after the

withdrawal of its military forces from Afghanistan.

For this purpose, the fact that Washington, directly

and indirectly, offers its "contribution" to large dam

projects that have a great impact on regional security,

or water projects in Afghanistan, is evidence of

attempts to turn water into a tool of geopolitical

influence.

2.4 Iran

According to information, 40 percent of the world's

oil products pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran

threatens to close this strait, the world oil market will

take a negative turn. Iran's strategies related to the

Caspian may also have an impact on oil export routes

in Central Asia. One of the important goals of the

"Greater Iran" concept developed by Tehran was the

implementation of water projects in the directions of

"Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran". However, such

potential plans of Iran have not materialized so far. In

addition, the disputes between Iran and Afghanistan

regarding the use of the Helmand River in recent

years had a serious impact on the security situation in

the region.

2.5 Central Asia

Unfortunately, the water problems in Central Asia

have not yet been solved. Central Asian countries

such as Turkmenistan (206m3) and Uzbekistan

(625m3) are among the countries that have 1000m3

per capita per year (that is, necessary to meet

minimum needs). According to the research of the

Institute of World Resources, Turkmenistan,

Uzbekistan, Moldova, and Azerbaijan are among the

13 countries in the world with the least water supply.

Moreover, the fact that upstream countries are

consulted on this issue not with downstream countries,

but with "big countries" can make the situation even

more complicated.

Water problems in Central Asia should be solved only

on the basis of mutual agreement of the countries of

the region without external interference. The

agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is a

clear example of this. Border problems in Central

Asia have a unique aspect, which includes water-

related factors. The long-standing border problems

between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan were legally

resolved on the basis of a mutually signed agreement.

The agreement reached on the use of the Kambirabad

Security, Challenges and Solutions of Water Geopolitics in Central Asia

961

reservoir is extremely important for the region's

prospects. It is commendable that Uzbek diplomacy

is based on the principle of "land for water" and plans

to prevent the various prospective problems related to

water that we have analyzed above. This is a product

of preventive diplomacy.

3 CONCLUSION

According to estimates, a "water war" may begin in

Central Asia by 2050 due to various reasons. It cannot

be ruled out that this will become a major threat to the

region. The construction of the Koshtepa canal, which

is being built by the Taliban, may cause Uzbekistan's

water problems to become more serious. From this

point of view, the states of the region should hold

diplomatic negotiations on water-related issues with

mutual agreement, in particular involving the Afghan

side in these processes, and regulate the problems

based on the norms of international law. serves as a

preventive measure against turning it into a

geopolitical weapon.

REFERENCES

Bo‘ronov, S. (2021). Geopolitics of Uzbekistan. Tashkent:

EFFECT-D, p.12.

Ergashev, A., & Jumaqulov, D. (2013). Water battle or

geopolitical struggles. Tafakkur Journal, 2013(1).

AACS Consulting. Feasibility studies on the Khush Tepa

irrigation and power generation mega project for

USAID and the Government of Afghanistan. AACS

Consulting - Khush Tepa Irrigation Scheme and Power

Generation Feasibility Study.

Central Asian Light. (2023, February 10). Afghan Kushtepa

channel - disaster for Central Asia? Central Asian Light

- Afghan Kushtepa Channel.

Yunusov, H., & Mamatova, Z. (2015). Transboundary

rivers and large dams: threats, losses, and security

measures. Tashkent: Yangi Asr Avlodi.

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