Climate Changes in the Aydar Arnasoy Lake System and Its
Surroundings
Mirkomil R. Gudalov
a
, Farrukh Sh. Akchaev
b
, Abdivali Shamshiyev
c
and Muhammad Kh. Tilovboev
d
Jizzakh State Pedagogical Institute, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
Keywords: Aydar-Arnasoy Lake System, Water Area, Water Volume, Meteorological Station, Microclimate, Relative
Humidity, Temperature, Amount of Precipitation, Foggy Days.
Abstract: In this article, the morphometric parameters of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system and micro-level change of
climate elements such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and fog in its surrounding landscapes
were studied and analysed.
1 INTRODUCTION
The investigation of the emergence of the Aydar-
Arnasoy lake system and its environmental impacts
has become increasingly significant, not only for the
Jizzakh and Navoi regions but also for our republic as
a whole. This is evident as the water area of the
Aydar-Arnasoy lake system expands, accompanied
by an increase in water volume. Covering an area of
3,702 km2, it is the second-largest lake system in our
republic, surpassed only by the Aral Sea. The water
volume is measured at 44.1 km3, which is twice the
volume of water found in all other reservoirs in our
country.
The expansion of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake
system's water area and the subsequent rise in water
volume are leading to observable micro-level climate
changes. This has resulted in alterations to climatic
elements such as temperature, relative humidity,
rainfall, and fog in the vicinity of the lake.
Subsequently, we will delve into the specifics of these
climate element changes.
a
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7030-2643
b
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5557-5002
c
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2489-7583
d
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4859-713X
2 DISCUSSIONS
The climate of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system and its
surroundings was characterized using long-term data
from eight meteorological stations and posts. While
the Arnasoy hydrometeorological post, established in
1985, was not included in the description due to its
later inception, its data was utilized for comparing
microclimate elements between the lake and the
desert climate, given its proximity to the Aydar-
Arnasoy lake system.
Situated in the Kyzylkum desert to the north-west,
the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system and its surroundings
experience hot air flows from the desert during the
summer months. A notable difference in average July
temperatures is observed from Ayakogit to the central
part of Mirzachol, with Ayakogit experiencing a
decrease of 3.1°C, Forish 2.8°C, Jizzakh 2.6°C, and
Syrdarya 2.7°C. Such temperature variations persist
from May to September.
The plains to the north of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake
system allow the influx of cold Arctic air without
hindrance. Consequently, in December and January,
the air temperature drops to -34°C in Mirzachol, -
32°C in Nurota j/x, and -29°C in Forish. However,
despite these low temperatures, the average
temperature in January is relatively mild: 0.1°C in
976
Gudalov, M., Akchaev, F., Shamshiyev, A. and Tilovboev, M.
Climate Changes in the Aydar Arnasoy Lake System and Its Surroundings.
DOI: 10.5220/0012935700003882
Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
In Proceedings of the 2nd Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies (PAMIR-2 2023), pages 976-979
ISBN: 978-989-758-723-8
Proceedings Copyright © 2024 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda.

Forish, -0.6°C in Jizzakh, and -1.6°C in Nurota j/x,
indicating the presence of numerous warm days
during winter.
Throughout most of the year, the high air
temperature contributes to low relative humidity. In
the Kyzylkum desert on the western side of the
Aydar-Arnasoy lake system, average relative
humidity remains below 50%, dropping to 20-23% in
June and July (Ayakogitma, Mashikuduq). Relative
humidity slightly increases towards the foothills,
reaching 24% in Forish and 32% in Jizzakh in July.
By this month, it stands at 46% at the Mirzachol
station and 50% at Syrdarya (refer to Table 1).
Table 1: Average monthly and annual changes in relative
humidity(%).
т/
р
Station I II II
I
I
V
VV
I
V
II
VI
II
I
X
X X
I
X
II
XI
II
1 oyoqogi
tma
7
8
7
0
6
4
5
0
3
3
2
3
2
0
21 2
5
3
9
5
8
7
6
46
2 Mashiku
du
k
7
8
7
3
6
4
5
1
3
3
2
2
2
0
28 2
9
3
9
6
2
7
6
48
3 Farish 7
2
7
0
7
0
6
0
4
5
2
9
2
4
27 2
9
4
3
5
9
7
1
50
4 Jizzakh 7
7
7
5
7
3
6
3
5
0
3
5
3
2
34 3
7
5
0
6
5
7
6
56
5 Mirzach
ol
7
7
7
5
7
6
6
6
5
7
4
7
4
6
50 5
3
6
0
7
1
8
0
63
6 Syr
Dar
y
a
8
5
8
4
7
6
7
0
5
9
4
9
5
0
58 6
1
6
8
7
4
8
4
68
Precipitation distribution exhibits an increase in
the eastern and mountainous areas of the Kyzylkum
region. In the eastern part of Kyzylkum, the
Ayokogitma station records an average annual
rainfall of 112 mm, Mashikuduk with 137 mm,
Nurota j/x with 237 mm, and Forish with 366 mm.
Therefore, in the western part of the Aydar-Arnasoy
lake system, the eastern region receives 2.5-3.0 times
more rainfall compared to the arid desert areas (refer
to Table 2).
Table 2: Average monthly and annual precipitation(mm).
N
o
Statio
n
м/
б
I II II
I
I
V
V V
I
V
II
VI
II
I
X
XX
I
X
II
XI
II
1 oyoq
ogitm
a
18
4
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
1
1
2
5 2 0,
5
1 5 8 1
1
11
2
2 Mash
ikudu
k
19
9
1
6
1
8
2
6
2
3
1
3
4 2 0,
4
1 6 1
2
1
6
13
7
3 Nurot
a
farm.
38
0
2
0
2
7
4
1
4
0
2
2
4 0,
2
0,
3
1 1
2
3
4
3
5
23
7
4 Faris
h
52
5
3
8
4
1
6
0
4
7
2
5
6 1 1 3 1
9
3
4
4
1
31
6
5 Jizza
kh
39
2
4
5
4
8
6
9
5
6
2
8
8 1 1 2 2
1
4
1
4
6
36
6
6 Mirza
chol
27
6
3
2
3
3
4
8
4
2
2
7
9 2 2 3 1
8
3
0
3
0
27
6
7 Yang
i
y
e
r
22
4
3
7
4
2
6
3
5
9
3
4
9 3 1 3 2
4
3
2
3
3
34
0
8 Syr
Dary
a
20
4
4
1
4
0
5
9
5
0
2
7
6 2 1 1 2
4
3
3
4
0
32
4
The productivity of grassland plants in the
vicinity of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system is
contingent upon both the quantity and timing of
precipitation, particularly during the spring months.
Based on data from the Jizzakh meteorological
station, the year with the highest rainfall recorded 575
mm, whereas the driest year saw only 147 mm of rain
(Gudalov., 2019). Consequently, there is a fourfold
difference in precipitation between the wettest and
driest years.
In dry years, a substantial amount of water flows
from streams in the Syrdarya, Sangzor River, and
Nurota mountains to the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system
and its surroundings. This phenomenon results in the
formation of lakes instead of marshes during wetter
years, while in drier years, these areas revert to
marshes. A comparison between the data from the dry
year 2003 and the relatively dry year 2007 illustrates
this variability (refer to Table 3).
Table 3: The amount of precipitation around the Aydar-
Arnasoy lake system(mm).
Т/р station 2003
(seriocephali
c)
2007
(arid)
More than
average
annual rainfall
1Н
ур
ота ж/х 418,3 149,9 237
2Фо
р
иш 421,5 132,0 241
3 Жиззах 444,6 160,3 283
4 Мирзачўл 356,2 98,7 198
As depicted in Table 3, the precipitation levels
recorded in Nurota district, Forish, Jizzakh, and
Mirzachol in 2003 were three times higher than those
observed in 2007 and nearly twice the average
amount of long-term rainfall. This illustrates the
considerable variation in precipitation around the
Aydar-Arnasoy lake system across different years.
The wind direction around the Aydar-Arnasoy
lake system and its environs is influenced by the
general circulation of the atmosphere and the local
topography. Generally, during winter, the Aydar-
Arnasoy lake system and the adjacent plains
experience predominantly northerly and northeasterly
Climate Changes in the Aydar Arnasoy Lake System and Its Surroundings
977

winds. In the foothills and on the northern slopes of
the Nurota Mountains (Forish and Jizzakh stations),
westerly and southwestern winds prevail. In the
summer months, with the formation of the Central
Asian thermal depression, the baric gradient shifts
from the northwest to the southwest, consequently
altering the direction of air flow (Alibekov et. al.,
2012).
In recent years, due to the expansion of the water
area of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system (3702 km2)
and the increase in distance from east to west (350
km), there is a notable difference in air temperature
between the east and west sides of the lake,
amounting to 0.8°C. Additionally, the air humidity
shows a variance of 1.4 mb. This shift is indicative of
an increasing continental influence on the climate as
one moves westward (refer to Table 4).
Table 4: Annual state of air humidity and temperature in
different regions of the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system.
кўл I II II
I
IV V VI VI
I
VI
II
IX X X
I
X
II
й
и
л
average multi-year air temperature (С0)
Arn
asoy
-
3,1
-
0,
5
7,
9
15
,2
22
,0
27
,1
28
,8
25
,0
19
,7
12
,8
6,
4
0,
1
1
3
,
4
Tuz
kon
-
2,1
0,
2
8,
0
14
,6
22
,2
26
,8
29
,4
26
,5
21
,0
13
,0
7,
0
1,
0
1
4
,
0
East
ern
Ayd
arko
l
-
2,5
0,
1
7,
8
14
,0
22
,1
26
,6
29
,7
26
,7
21
,2
12
,8
6,
9
0,
5
1
3
,
8
Wes
tern
Ayd
arko
l
-
1,1
0,
6
7,
6
13
,6
22
,2
27
,1
30
,1
27
,6
21
,4
12
,8
7,
1
1,
0
1
4
,
2
annual average humidity (mb)
Arn
asoy
4,2 4,
8
7,
3
10
,9
12
,3
13
,0
14
,2
12
,5
9,
8
7,
8
6,
9
4,
9
9
,
0
Tuz
kon
4,3 4,
9
7,
2
10
,4
11
,1
11
,5
11
,4
10
,5
8,
5
7,
2
6,
7
5,
1
8
,
2
East
ern
Ay
d
4,2 4,
7
7,
1
10
,2
10
,4
10
,6
10
,8
9,
7
8,
0
6,
9
6,
7
5,
0
7
,
9
arko
l
Wes
tern
Ayd
arko
l
4,2 4,
8
6,
9
9,
8
9,
8
10
,3
10
,5
9,
2
7,
5
6,
5
6,
6
5,
1
7
,
6
Upon analysing the precipitation distribution in
the Aydar-Arnasoy Lake system and its environs, a
notable increase is observed from the northwestern to
the southeastern regions. The highest rainfall is
recorded in March and April, whereas the lowest
precipitation levels occur in June and July (refer to
Figure 1).
Figure 1: Changes in the amount of precipitation around
the Aydar-Arnasoy Lake system by month during the year.
Utilizing data from the Nurota j/x, Forish,
Jizzakh, and Mirzachol meteorological stations
around the Aydar-Arnasoy lake system, the average
multi-year precipitation levels were calculated (refer
to Fig. 2).
Figure 2: Average multi-year rainfall recorded at
meteorological stations around the Aydar-Arnasoy lake
system.
Many experts anticipate a positive impact on
increased rainfall in the Aydar-Arnasoy basin in the
coming years due to the presence of the Aydar-
Arnasoy lake system. A significant factor
contributing to this expectation is the development of
a cold air layer, several hundred meters thick, above
the lakes, characterized by higher humidity and lower
temperature. During the spring, winter, and autumn
months, when west and northwest air currents
approach the lakes, they glide over this cool air layer,
ascending in the process. This leads to a drop in
PAMIR-2 2023 - The Second Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies- | PAMIR
978

temperature and saturation with moisture, resulting in
an increase in precipitation. Even during the summer
months, a cool air layer persists, but owing to the high
air temperature and low humidity, the air currents
sliding over the layer remain far from the saturation
level, preventing rainfall.
3 CONCLUSIONS
According to observations from the Arnasoy Lake
station, the Aydar-Arnasoy Lake system experiences
the formation of cool air during the summer months,
creating daytime breezes that extend several
kilometers along the coast. Consequently, the air
temperature on coastal beaches decreases by 2-30°C
during the day compared to the surrounding desert
areas.
The influence of the Aydar-Arnasoy Lake system has
led to an increase in foggy days from 10-13 days to
20-25 days (Gudalov., 2020). One contributing factor
is the presence of evaporative and advective fog
associated with the lake system. Evaporation fog
arises through the condensation of water vapor in the
air rising from the lake surface when the air above the
lake cools. For this process, the temperature of the
water should be higher than the temperature of the air
above it. A gentle breeze or light wind carries some
of the formed fog ashore, resulting in the formation
of fog around the lake.
Advective fogs occur in winter and late autumn when
the land surface surrounding the lakes experiences
significant cooling. Under these conditions, when the
wind carries moist air from the lake surface towards
the land, the moist lake air quickly condenses over the
cold land surface, forming dense fog around the lakes.
These phenomena are frequently observed on the
southern shores of the Aydar-Arnasoy Lake system,
at the base of the Nurota Mountains.
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