Analysing the Impact of Climate Indicators on Agricultural Crops in

the Specific Context of the Bakhmal District

Kamoliddin A. Khakimov

, Nurmuhammad D. Qosimov

, Shavkat M. Sharipov

Elbek Safarov

and Davron O. Boymurodov

National University of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Jizzakh State Pedagogical Institute, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan

Keywords: Climate, Landscape, Agricultural Crops, Temperature, Humidity, the Sum of Effective Temperatures,

Thermal Resources, Hydrothermal Coefficient, Humidity Coefficient, Morning and Evening Frosts.

Abstract: In this article, based on the scientists who conducted research in the assessment of climate for agricultural

crops and their work, criteria were developed in the conditions of the Bakhmal district. In the development of

the criteria, the temperature, and humidity indicators of the climate, as well as the sum of effective

temperatures, various “hydrothermal coefficients”, and “humidity coefficients” were taken into account.

1 INTRODUCTION

The consideration of climate assessment for

agriculture has been a focal point in the research of

notable scientists, including G. T. Selyaninov, N. N.

Ivanov, D. I. Shashko, P. I. Koloskov, L. N.

Babushkin, and Sh. S. Zokirov. In the Bakhmal

region, understanding the growth, development, and

productivity of agricultural crops necessitates a

comprehensive analysis of temperature and humidity

indicators, along with factors such as the sum of

effective temperatures, various hydrothermal

coefficients, and humidity coefficients.

Moreover, the assessment must encompass

potential adversities posed by climatic phenomena

that could negatively impact agricultural crops. These

encompass spring and autumn frosts, hail and sleet,

sleet, strong winds, and dust. To enhance precision,

adjustments to the primary assessment are made using

specific coefficients.

This holistic approach to climate assessment

acknowledges the multifaceted nature of

environmental factors affecting agriculture in the

Bakhmal region. It emphasizes the importance of

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considering not only favourable conditions but also

potential challenges posed by various climatic

elements, ensuring a more nuanced understanding for

effective agricultural planning and management

(Sharipov et. al., 2020).

1.1 The Main Part

For optimal crop growth, each crop type and variety

necessitate a specific set of effective temperatures.

The sum of effective temperatures is calculated based

on the accumulation of average temperatures

exceeding +10°C, a threshold at which the plant's

physiological processes function normally. In

assessing the sum of effective temperatures for winter

and spring farming in the Bakhmal district, insights

from experiments conducted by L.N. Babushkin

(1964) and Sh.S. Zokirov (1972) are incorporated. A

thermal resources evaluation system tailored to the

conditions of the Bakhmal district can be formulated

accordingly, as outlined in Table 1. This approach

ensures a nuanced understanding of thermal

dynamics crucial for agricultural planning,

emphasizing the significance of specific temperature

thresholds in optimizing crop cultivation.

1048

Khakimov, K., Qosimov, N., Sharipov, S., Safarov, E. and Boymurodov, D.

Analysing the Impact of Climate Indicators on Agricultural Crops in the Speciﬁc Context of the Bakhmal District.

DOI: 10.5220/0012949800003882

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies (PAMIR-2 2023), pages 1048-1053

ISBN: 978-989-758-723-8

Table 1: Evaluation of thermal resources.

No The sum of

effective

temperatures

(+10˚C above)

Evaluation

scores

Evaluation

quality

1 More than

3800

100 the most

convenient

2 2700-3800 80-100 comfortable

3 2100-2700 60-80 average

4 1600-2100 40-60 below average

5 1000-1600 20-40 uncomfortable

6 0-1000 0-20 Invalid

In the development of this evaluation system, the

thermal properties of local agricultural crops, namely

wheat, barley, peas, corn, beans, alfalfa, sugarcane

and vegetable crops, grapes, and fruit trees were taken

into account [11].

L.N.Babushkin (1964), and Sh.S.Zokirov (1972)

based on the requirements of the cotton crop (latest

ripening varieties, medium ripening varieties, fastest

ripening varieties) in developing the provision of

thermal resources for obikor farming and evaluated as

follows develops a system.

Table 2: Estimating the sum of effective temperatures.

No The sum of effective

temperatures

Evaluation

scores

1 2670 100

2 2250 85

3 2020 75

4 1500 60

5 1000 40

Changes were introduced to the assessment

system developed by scientists due to the absence of

cotton cultivation in the Bakhmal district. Landscapes

with a sum of effective temperatures exceeding

3800°C are awarded a perfect score of 100 points,

designating them as "most comfortable." This thermal

zone is not only suitable for all crops in the region but

also facilitates the full ripening of heat-loving crops

such as cotton and grapes. The conducive thermal

conditions even allow for a double harvest in organic

farming. L.N. Babushkin (1964) delineated five

thermal zones based on the sum of positive

temperatures during the growing season, designating

areas with 3800°C and above as the hot zone, suitable

for growing medium and fast-ripening cotton

varieties.

For sums of effective temperatures ranging

between 2700°C and 3800°C, a rating of 80 to 100

points is assigned, indicating "favourable" conditions.

Heat-loving grapes do not ripen in regions with a sum

of effective temperatures below 2700°C. Landscapes

with sums between 2100°C and 2700°C are rated

between 60 and 80 points, labelled as "average." L.N.

Babushkin (1964, 1985) terms this zone as the grain

crops zone due to the optimal conditions for legumes,

legumes, and vegetables. Sum of effective

temperatures between 1600°C and 2100°C scores

between 40 and 60, categorised as "below average,"

crucial for the ripening of specific barley varieties in

spring landscapes. Landscapes with sums between

1000°C and 1600°C are deemed "unfavourable" and

receive ratings from 20 to 40 points. Those with sums

below 1000°C are considered "unsuitable" with a

score of 0-20, corresponding to non-agricultural areas

in the highlands. L.N. Babushkin (1964) notes this

zone as unsuitable for agriculture due to the thermal

resource. The growth, development, and yield of

agricultural crops during spring farming hinge on soil

moisture supplied by rainwater, assessed using the

"hydrothermal coefficient" formula by G.T.

Selyaninov (1).

ГТК = Р/(𝒕: 𝟏𝟎) (1)

ΣР – average amount of precipitation during the

growing season.

Σt – the temperature sum of the period when the

average daily temperature is above +10°.

This necessitates data on precipitation during the

growing season and the sum of effective temperatures

with average daily temperatures above 10°C. The

vegetation period aligns with the initial development

phases of plants [7;8], varying depending on plant

types and yearly weather fluctuations. For barley and

wheat, it's observed at 5°C, 10°C for cotton, 12°C for

oats, and 15°C for rice and fruit trees [2; 354–357-p.].

Considering periods with average daily temperatures

of +10°C and above, the vegetation period in the

Bakhmal district commences in mid-March and

concludes in early October. Precipitation during this

timeframe ranges from 119 mm to 211 mm,

corresponding to altitude changes from 800 m to 3000

m. The sum of temperatures with average daily

temperature above +10°C decreases from 4160°C to

500°C concerning altitude (Table 3).

G.T. Selyaninov's formula determined the

hydrothermal coefficient for each landscape

morphological unit, exhibiting variations from 0.29 to

4.23 in the district. Based on this data, a hydrothermal

coefficient less than 0.3 designates a dry zone

Analysing the Impact of Climate Indicators on Agricultural Crops in the Speciﬁc Context of the Bakhmal District

1049

(suitable only for irrigated farming), 0.3 to 0.5

indicates a drier zone (spring grain crops at 75-99%

natural soil moisture), and a zone with a coefficient

greater than 0.5 signifies a wet zone (natural moisture

supply reaching 100% for spring grain crops) [1]. The

dry zone, with a hydrothermal coefficient below 0.3,

encompasses areas up to 850 m absolute altitude,

while the drier zone (0.3 to 0.5) includes altitudes

between 850 m and 1540 m. Areas above 1540 m in

the Bakhmal district fall into the wet zone, possessing

a hydrothermal coefficient greater than 0.5.

Hydrothermal coefficients are assessed using

points and quality indicators, including the sum of

effective temperatures. A result above 0.75 earns 100

points (most favourable), 0.50-0.75 corresponds to 80

to 100 points (favourable), 0.30-0.50 equates to 60 to

80 points (average), 0.20-0.30 warrants 40 to 60

points (below average), 0.11-0.20 merits 20 to 40

points (unfavourable), and less than 0.11 is

categorised from 0 to 20 points (invalid).

Table 3: Evaluation of hydrothermal indicators.

No Hydrothermal

index

Evaluation

scores

Evaluation

qualit

1 0.75 100 the most

convenient

2 0.50-0.75 80-100 comfortable

3 0.30-0.50 60-80 average

4 0.20-0.30 40-60 below average

5 0.11-0.20 20-40 uncomfortable

6 0-0.11 0-20 invalid

The assessment of thermal resources for

agricultural crops reveals a noteworthy contradiction

when compared to the evaluation of hydrothermal

resources. Areas deemed unusable and unfavourable

in the thermal resource assessment paradoxically

exhibit the most favourable and favourable qualities

in the hydrothermal coefficient assessment. This

incongruity is rooted in the well-established

understanding that thermal resources diminish while

precipitation increases with higher altitudes in

mountainous regions.

Spring and autumn black frosts, naturally

occurring meteorological phenomena, do not

significantly impact agricultural assessments. The

adjustments made involve modifying the main score

using specific coefficients [3; 202–221-p.]. These

black frosts, characterized by air temperature and soil

surface dropping to 0°C or lower, are deemed

harmful, with a notable prevalence in the Bekhmal

district. Over the last 5 years in the town of Osmat

and its surroundings, spring black frosts have caused

considerable damage to various crops multiple times,

underscoring their detrimental impact.

The timing of black frosts is influenced by

geographical position, plant type, variety,

agrotechnical conditions, and other factors. Different

crops exhibit varying degrees of resistance to cold,

with spring wheat, barley, and peas enduring

temperatures from -7°C to -10°C, cabbage from -5°C

to -7°C, soybeans and radish from -3°C to -4°C. Less

cold-resistant crops, including corn, millet, potatoes,

and tobacco, can withstand black frosts up to 0°C.

In our republic, the onset of the plant vegetation

period experiences an average delay of 1.5-2.5 days

for every 100 meters rise in altitude. In the

moderately steep hills of the Bakhmal district, this

delay extends to 3-4 days. For example, in 2020, the

full flowering phase of apple trees occurred on April

10 in the town of Osmat at an altitude of 1000 m

above sea level. In contrast, in the village of Zartepa,

located 700 m above Osmat and 45 km away, the

same phase was observed on May 10. This delayed

onset of the spring period is associated with a

reduction in the occurrence of spring frosts.

When determining the coefficient of spring and

autumn cold shocks, the focus extends beyond the

number of days after the start of the growing season

to consider the frequency of occurrence. This

approach has led to the development of specific

criteria, as outlined in Table 4. The emphasis on

frequency provides a more nuanced understanding of

the impact of cold shocks on crops, offering a

comprehensive assessment that goes beyond

temporal considerations.

In conclusion, the intricacies of thermal and

hydrothermal assessments, coupled with the impact

of black frosts and the delayed onset of the spring

period, underscore the multifaceted nature of

agricultural conditions in the Bakhmal district. As

agricultural planning necessitates a comprehensive

understanding of these factors, the developed criteria

for assessing cold shocks provide a valuable tool for

farmers and researchers alike. The interplay of

geographical, climatic, and crop-specific variables

highlights the need for adaptive and region-specific

agricultural practices to optimize productivity and

resilience in the face of diverse meteorological

challenges.

PAMIR-2 2023 - The Second Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies- | PAMIR

1050

Table 4: Coefficients of spring and autumn frostbite.

No Spring frost

hit

Correction

facto

Fall frost

hit

Correction

facto

1 During the

growing

season,

spring

black frosts

do not

occur at all

1.00 During the

growing

season,

there are no

autumn

black frosts

at all

1.00

2 During the

growing

season,

spring

black frosts

occur less

than 1 time

in 10 years

0.98 During the

growing

season,

autumn

black frosts

occur less

than 1 time

in 10 years

0.98

3 During the

vegetation

period,

spring

black frosts

occur 1-2

times in 10

years

0.96 During the

vegetation

period,

autumn

black frosts

occur 1-2

times in 10

years

0.96

4 During the

growing

season,

spring

black frosts

occur 3-4

times in 10

ears

0.94 During the

growing

season,

autumn

black frosts

occur 3-4

times in 10

ears

0.94

5 During the

growing

season,

spring

black frosts

occur more

than 4

times in 10

years

0.92 During the

growing

season,

autumn

black frosts

occur more

than 4

times in 10

years

0.92

In the Bakhmal district, the delicate balance of

agricultural productivity faces formidable challenges,

particularly in the context of frequent meteorological

extremes that shape the fate of crops. These

challenges manifest in distinct patterns depending on

the season and geographical features of the region.

Spring frosts, a recurring adversary for farmers,

find their stronghold in the spring landscapes situated

at an average altitude of 900-1400 meters above sea

level. These chilly intruders disrupt the early stages

of plant development, posing a threat to crops at a

critical juncture. On the flip side, autumn frosts,

another facet of nature's unpredictability, exhibit a

preference for regions engaged in irrigated

agriculture, particularly those hovering at an average

altitude of 800-900 meters above sea level.

The vulnerability of agricultural crops extends

beyond the whims of temperature, as hazardous

meteorological events wreak havoc during the crucial

growing season. The foothills, often deemed idyllic

for cultivation, become a battleground for crops

contending with hail, storms, floods, and relentless

winds. The repercussions of these events are far-

reaching and multifaceted.

Wind-blown rains, a formidable force of nature,

not only jeopardize the structural integrity of wheat

and barley stems but also inflict damage on delicate

vine branches. Simultaneously, the fertile top layer of

the soil faces erosion, threatening the very foundation

of agricultural productivity. The untimely influence

of rain close to the ripening period of grapes

introduces an additional layer of risk, causing grapes

to burst and compromising both the quantity and

quality of the harvest.

Hailstorms, a recurrent nemesis, unleash their

fury primarily in the foothills of the district. Their

unwelcome visitation, typically observed from April

to May and sometimes extending into early June,

coincides with critical phases in the growth of apple

trees, the development of vine branches, and the rapid

maturation of grain crops. Even brief spells of hail

can dismantle the intricate structures of plants,

stripping them of leaves, flowers, and fruits. The

aftermath is a compromised yield and diminished

quality, with the potential for a lasting impact on the

harvest in the subsequent year.

The toll on farmers in the foothills, particularly

those specializing in horticulture, is not just agrarian

but economic. Hailstorms can inflict severe economic

losses as apple fruits, a primary focus of horticultural

endeavors, bear the brunt of these meteorological

assaults. The night of May 23, 1998, stands as a

poignant testament to the destructive potential of

hailstorms, where hailstones the size of eggs and

bowls, weighing between 100 and 150 grams (some

reaching as much as 500-600 grams), prompted a

state of emergency in the district. The town of Osmat

and Aktash villages and their surroundings were

severely impacted, with thousands of buildings

rendered unusable and vast expanses of both dry and

irrigated grain fields laid waste. Orchards and

vineyards, once thriving, succumbed to the hail's

onslaught, tallying material damages that amounted

to a staggering 532 million soums at the prices of that

era [6; 29–32-p.].

Analysing the Impact of Climate Indicators on Agricultural Crops in the Speciﬁc Context of the Bakhmal District

1051

Adding to the litany of challenges, early spring

floods in some years pose a lurking menace to crop

fields. The potential destruction or submersion of

fields in mud during these floods necessitates a

thorough evaluation of their impact. In the assessment

process, specific coefficients are applied to the main

scores, providing a nuanced understanding of the

challenges posed by these dangerous flood events.

The authors, mindful of the complex interplay of

meteorological variables, have meticulously outlined

the criteria for calculating these coefficients, as

presented in Table 5.

In conclusion, the agricultural landscape of the

Bakhmal district is intricately woven with challenges

imposed by nature's capricious elements. From the

frosty embrace of spring to the tumultuous storms and

hailstorms, farmers navigate a complex terrain where

the resilience of crops is continually tested. The

authors' comprehensive assessment, encapsulated in

the presented criteria, serves not only as a diagnostic

tool but also as a roadmap for devising strategies that

mitigate the impact of these meteorological

adversaries, fostering sustainable and adaptive

agricultural practices.( Holbaev, 2017- Anorboev,

2000)

Table 5: Coefficients of Dangerous Meteorological

Phenomena

No Dangerous meteorological

henomena

Correction

facto

1 During the growing season,

dangerous meteorological events do

not occur at all

2 During the growing season,

dangerous meteorological events

occur less than once in 10 years

0.98

3 During the growing season,

dangerous meteorological events

occur 1-2 times in 10 years

0.96

4 During the growing season,

dangerous meteorological events

occur 3-4 times in 10 years

0.94

5 During the growing season,

dangerous meteorological events

occur more than 4 times in 10

ears

0.92

2 CONCLUSIONS

It is desirable to make a general assessment of the

climate for agricultural crops through the following

formula (developed by the author) (Formula 1).

=Σt

× Σ

гткб

× Σ

бсук

× Σ

ксук

× Σ

хмҳк

× 0,01 (1)

– climate assessment score for agricultural

crops;

Σt

– the sum of temperatures with the average

daily temperature above +10° is the evaluation score;

гткб

– Hydrothermal coefficient score

бсук

– Coefficient of spring cold shock

ксук

– Autumn frost coefficient

хмҳк

– Coefficient of dangerous meteorological

phenomena

According to the results of climate assessment for

agricultural crops in Bakhmal District, the parts of the

region close to the Zarafshan Oasis were assessed as

favorable, while the unfavorable conditions towards

the Chumkor and Morguzar mountains increased.

As the climate of the district is dry and

continental, most of the agricultural crops depend on

rainfall. Wheat, barley, peas - these crops form the

basis of dry farming.

The territory of the district is rich in biological

and landscape diversity, but due to the aridity of the

climate, it is extremely sensitive and fragile to

external factors. If the types of use of nature are not

regulated, and not planned purposefully, if the

inconveniences of climate change are not taken into

account, the system in nature will be destroyed, and it

will lead to the reduction of natural resources and the

loss of biodiversity. This causes the balance between

nature and society to be disturbed and new problems

to arise.

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