Analysis and Control of Airport Runway Intrusion
Yutianyang Jia
Air Traffic Control, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China
Keywords: Runway Incursion, ARIMA Model, Least Squares Method, Safety, Prediction.
Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of runway incursion predictions and identify the key factors influencing
such incidents, this study employed a comprehensive approach. Firstly, an ARIMA model was established
by analyzing runway incursion data from fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2023 in the United States. This time
range allowed for a robust analysis of trends and patterns in runway incursions. Secondly, the least squares
method was applied to conduct multiple regression analysis on the results and influencing factors of runway
incursions specifically at the top 15 airports in China's civil transport network during the year 2011.The
integration of these two methodologies resulted in the development of a reliable ARIMA prediction model,
which effectively captured the complexities of runway incursions. Notably, the research findings
highlighted those typical errors emerged as the primary contributing factor to these incidents. Such insights
provide valuable directions and suggestions for targeted strengthening and training programs aimed at
enhancing the competency of relevant practitioners within China's civil aviation safety departments. By
adopting preventive measures based on this study's recommendations, it is expected that runway incursion
accidents can be significantly reduced, ultimately bolstering the overall safety of China's civil aviation
sector.
1 INTRODUCTION
Runway incursion is a problem that cannot be
ignored in the field of aviation safety. In recent
years, with the growth of global air traffic, the
number of runway incursion incidents has been on
the rise, posing a serious threat to flight safety.
In China, the aviation industry is rapidly
developing, and runway incursion incidents occur
from time to time. Runway incursion is not a newly
emerged phenomenon, but it has become an
important issue that has drawn abundant attention in
recent decades. With the increase in air traffic
volume and the workload of controllers, coupled
with some human errors and equipment failures, the
possibility of runway incursion has increased.
Several severe runway incursion incidents that
have occurred internationally have not only caused
significant economic losses, but also posed a serious
threat to people's lives. According to Simple Flying,
the US FAA confirmed 19 severe runway incursion
incidents from January to October 2023, the highest
number since 2016.
On January 2, 2023, an Airbus A350 passenger
plane operated by Japan Airlines collided with a
plane of the Japan Coast Guard at Tokyo Haneda
Airport and caught fire, becoming the first ever total
loss accident of an Airbus A350 passenger plane.379
passengers on the passenger plane narrowly escaped,
14 people were injured, and 5 people on the plane of
the Japan Coast Guard died. According to the latest
released call records by the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan, the
plane of the Japan Coast Guard entered the runway
without permission, leading to a collision with the
just landed JL516 passenger plane. It can be
basically confirmed that this was an accident caused
by runway incursion.
According to the ICAO in 2007, runway
incursions occur when an aircraft, vehicle, or person
is present on the runway incorrectly, posing a
significant challenge to the safe operation of the
airport surface, including the runway and taxiway
system (Sabine et al. 2019). The Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) declares in the 2015 National
Runway Safety Plan that the objective of runway
safety is to improve safety by decreasing both the
number and the severity of runway intrusions
(Mathew et al. 2017, Seraphin 2019).