The Impact of Natural Population Growth Rate and per Capita GDP

on Life Expectancy in China

Zhengyun Chen

Department of Financial Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong Liverpool University, Suzhou, China

Keywords: Life Expectancy, Natural Population Growth Rate, Capital GDP.

Abstract: With the development of modern society, the quality of people’s lives has become better and people pay more

attention to life quality. Food and clothing are no longer the most concerning issue for people, while how to

live longer and healthier has become a heated discussion. The main factors that impact life expectancy is one

of the key research topics today. After searching for relevant information, the research finds two variables

that may affect life expectancy. So the research topic of the article is the relationship between the population

growth rate, per capita GDP, and life expectancy. The research method of this article is as follows. First, the

data of natural growth rate, per capita GDP, and life expectancy in China from CEL data. Then, adopting a

suitable model of the variables and doing the tests to check the degree of fit. Finally, performing regression

analysis on data and getting the result to conclude. The research finds that the natural population growth hurts

life expectancy and the per capita GDP has a positive impact on life expectancy in China. The article also

provides an in-depth analysis of the reasons for this result. To increase life expectancy, people need to solve

the problem of retirement and strengthen infrastructure construction to help solve the health problem with the

help of the government and the family.

1 INTRODUCTION

In recent years, China’s national strength is steadily

increasing and people have lived a happy life. With

the rapid development of the Chinese economy,

pursuing health and longevity has become the most

beautiful vision in the heart of the people of the whole

country (Guo 2022). To realize this vision, scientists

are searching main factors that may affect life

expectancy. According to Wang Xiaolei , the GDP

has a critical impact on life expectancy (Wang

GAFLT). With the growth of the economy, people

can learn more about ways to stay healthy, and

medical security can become more comprehensive

which is beneficial for people’s longevity. So per

capita GDP is the main factor that can not be ignored.

In recent years, the natural growth rate in China has

been low making the population structure tend toward

aging (Li GAFHBU).

At the same time, with the increase in the elderly

population, retirement has become a major societal

issue in recent years (Wu CSHE). The age structure

causes young people can not take good care of the

elderly because they also have the pressure to take

care of the children. Meanwhile, the lack of

caregivers in nursing homes can also lead to issues

with elderly care. Based on these facts, the research

uses the natural growth rate as an independent

variable to find the relationship between it and life

expectancy in China. However, the deep reasons why

these two variables affect life expectancy need further

discussion. The research is based on the data from

CEI data to analyze the impact of natural growth rate

and per capita GDP in China and attempt to place hot

issues under the test of objective data. The research

will summarize the data from 2014 to 2021. Using

natural growth rate and per capita GDP as the

independent variables and using life expectancy as a

dependent variable. Then applying the data to

calculate the regression model and used the result to

analyse the fitting degree. Finally deriving the

relationship between the three variables and using

relevant data to analyze the deep reasons.

Chen, Z.

The Impact of Natural Population Growth Rate and per Capita GDP on Life Expectancy in China.

DOI: 10.5220/0012825900004547

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Data Science and Engineering (ICDSE 2024), pages 98-101

ISBN: 978-989-758-690-3

2 METHOD

2.1 Data Description

This study mainly explores the relationship between

life expectancy, natural population growth rate, and

per capita GDP in China from 2014 to 2021. The data

set is sourced from CEI data. The database provides a

reliable function for our study because it is controlled

by the government of China. Employing sample data

aims to find the relationship between life expectancy

and two explanatory factors and whether the natural

population growth rate and per capita GDP in China

influence life expectancy.

2.2 Data Analyze

To find the relationship, a regression model is used:

Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+ui (1)

Here, X1 and X2 serve as the independent

variable, Y serve as the dependent variable,β1, and β2

denote the regression coefficient and ui serves as the

error term. Y is life expectancy in China, X1 is the

natural population growth rate in China, and X2 is the

per capita GDP in China.

Input data into the computer and use Excel to get

the regression.

Table 1: Regression coefficients.

Coefficients Standard error

Intercept 74.9515232 1.03475241

X Variable 1 -0.1247191 0.06489231

X Variable 2 0.04078889 0.01256032

Table 2: Regression statistics.

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.98670885

R Square 0.97359436

Adjusted R Square 0.96303211

Standard error 0.14837689

As shown in Table 1, the regression is

Y=74.95-0.12X1+0.04X2. (2)

The same as

Life expectancy=7495-0.12*Natural

population growth rate + 0.04 *Per capita GDP (3)

According to Table 2, the R Square is 0.97, the

Adjusted R square is 0.96 the standard error is 0.15. It

indicates that the linear correlation between variables is

very close, and the fitting validity of the regression

equation is high.

Table 3: Hypothesis test.

t Stat P-value

Intercept 72.4342578291421 9.49942522182486E-09

X Variable 1 -1.92193942921116 0.112648212569879

X Variable 2 3.24744069216676 0.0227604296678813

Then, doing the hypothesis test. There is a close

relationship between natural growth rate and life

expectancy. So proposing verfiable hypotheses.

The null hypothesis (H0) is β1=0, and the

alternative hypothesis (H1) is β1≠0. Table 3 shows

that the t-statistics are high while corresponding p-

values are small. So rejecting H0 and get the

conclusion that there is high confidence that there

is a strong correlation between the natural population

growth rate and life expectancy in China. Then doing the

hypothesis test of β2, it can also have the same result.

As a result, the regression model concludes that the three

variables in the regression model are significant and two

factors of natural growth rate and per capita GDP have

a significant linear influence on life expectancy.

The Impact of Natural Population Growth Rate and per Capita GDP on Life Expectancy in China

At the same time, using Excel to get VIF to

exclude the problem of multicollinearity. The VIF

between X1 and X2 is 0.52 which is less than 5. It

means that the complex collinearity between X1

and X2 is relatively light. So there is no multicollinearity

problem between natural growth tare and per capita

GDP in China. The equation fitting effect is good.

Figure 1: The changes of Y and predict Y with the change of X1 (Picture credit: Original)

Figure 2: The changes of Y and predict Y with the change of X2 (Picture credit: Original)

Figure 1 and Figure 2 show that the changes of

the dependent variable Y with the changes of the

independent variables X1 and X2. The Figure 1

and Figure 2 made by the computer show the

predicted Y is almost identical to the actual Y. It

means that the model fits very well and the results

are faithful. So the research can draw a conclusion

according to the regression model.

3 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

This research investgate two factors that may affect

life expectancy in China, including natural growth

rate and per capita GDP. Using the two explanatory

variables of natural growth rate and per capita GDP

to research the relationship with the dependent

variable of life expectancy.

The impact of natural population growth on life

expectancy. The tables above show that there is a

negative correlation between natural population growth

rate and life expectancy. It means that if the natural

population growth rate is higher, then the life

expectancy is lower. The natural growth rate is an

important factor affecting population structure. To

reduce the degree of population ageing, the Chinese

government is gradually lifting birth restrictions (Guo et

al 2019).

With the higher natural growth rate, the age structure

tends to be younger. However, the main part supporting

the elderly is still the family, so as the pace of age

changes, middle-aged people need to spend more time

with children (Gao 2002). As a result, the time spent

taking care of the elderly will be reduced and many

middle-aged people no longer choose to live with the

elderly which means that old people will receive less

care. Meanwhile, more children mean more household

ICDSE 2024 - International Conference on Data Science and Engineering

100

expenses, so many middle-aged people have to

migrate. Once there are any health issues with the

elderly, they will not be able to arrive the first time.

Therefore, the natural population growth rate

harms life expectancy.

The impact of per capita GDP on life

expectancy. The tables above show a positive

correlation between per capita GDP and life

expectancy. It means that if the per capita GDP is

higher, the life expectancy is higher. The per capita

GDP is an important indicator for measuring a

country’s economic level. With a higher level of

economic development, the pension benefits are

better (Yang and Chang 2021). It means that more

elder people can be taken good care of and more

difficult and miscellaneous problems can be

solved. Meanwhile, the high economic level means

that pregnant women can have better care and

babies can have a higher survival rate (Zhu and

Liang). At the same time, a more complete social

system can improve the overall quality of people

which can increase life expectancy (Wang and Zhu

2014). People can arrange their daily lives more

scientifically and have a healthier diet.

From another perspective, the per capita GDP

is high means that there is more investment in

medical security (Wang 2021). And the medical

security system can save more lives. For example,

pregnant women can determine the health status of

their fetus through tests and advanced medical

technology can ensure the safety of pregnant

women and children’s lives. At the same time,

more people can afford medical examinations

which can assist patients in knowing their

condition in advance and receiving treatment.

Meanwhile, people also have enough money to

receive treatment. These can effectively reduce the

mortality rate and thus increase the life expectancy.

4 CONCLUSION

The research finds a negative correlation between

the natural growth rate and life expectancy in

China and the per capita GDP has a positive effect

on life expectancy in China.

The research evaluates the objective factors

that affect life expectancy in China based on data

analysis. To extend life expectancy, the research

suggests people improve the pension system to

avoid that the elderly can not be taken good care of

due to the pressure of taking care of children. At

the same time, with the rapid growth of the

economy, medical security is getting better and

many complicated diseases can be treated. Though the

government can take action to take care of the elderly

with the improvement of the economy, the family is still

the main part of supporting the elderly.

So the article also suggests people spend more time

with the elderly which is not only aimed at caring about

their physical health, but also good for their mental

health. This research is aimed at finding the main factors

that affect life expectancy. The research can help

scientists find ways to achieve the vision of pursuing

health and longevity. There are still some missing

variables in the study. In future research, further

refinement can be made in the operationalization of the

aforementioned variables to facilitate in-depth research

on this topic. With the development of economic and the

help of the government and the family, people can live

longer and healthier in the future.

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