Spatially Explicit Coupled Map Lattice Simulation of Malaria Transmission in the Brazilian Amazon

Anthony E. Kiszewski, Marcia Castro, Sarah McGough

2018

Abstract

End stage malaria elimination efforts will require interventions against transmission that is sparse, cryptic and spotty, situations suited for explicitly spatial simulation. A simulation of mosquito population dynamics and Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon is described combining techniques of cellular automata and coupled map lattices. Within a 200x200 grid, 64 dispersed communities of 50 households each are represented with larval breeding sites following a random Gaussian distribution. Discrete representation of individual humans allows examination of the effect of circulation and migration. Continuous representation of mosquito abundance allows for more realistic scaling over space. Simulations (n=100) reach equilibrium within 200 daily time steps. Adult mosquito populations range between 230-241,000 individuals. An average parous rate of 56.5% for stable mosquito populations is consistent with values reported in local field studies of the primary vector, Anopheles darlingi. Equilibrium prevalence of P. vivax infections averages 3% (1.8-3.9%) and is highly sensitive to treatment seeking behaviour of asymptomatics. This simulation provides a stable platform that may be useful for investigating the role of human migration and asymptomatic malaria in perpetuating transmission cycles in this region and interventions supporting malaria elimination efforts.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Kiszewski A. (2018). Spatially Explicit Coupled Map Lattice Simulation of Malaria Transmission in the Brazilian Amazon.In Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-323-0, pages 112-119. DOI: 10.5220/0006862701120119

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech18,
author={Anthony E. Kiszewski},
title={Spatially Explicit Coupled Map Lattice Simulation of Malaria Transmission in the Brazilian Amazon},
booktitle={Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2018},
pages={112-119},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0006862701120119},
isbn={978-989-758-323-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Spatially Explicit Coupled Map Lattice Simulation of Malaria Transmission in the Brazilian Amazon
SN - 978-989-758-323-0
AU - Kiszewski A.
PY - 2018
SP - 112
EP - 119
DO - 10.5220/0006862701120119