Modeling on Electricity Consumption’s Average of Households Group in Surabaya with Nonparametric Approach based on Fourier Estimator

Sediono, Eko Tjahjono, M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto, Ajeng Novy Lestari

2018

Abstract

Demand of electrical power increase in line with the number of populations, technological advances, and information. Household groups are the biggest users of electricity every year. The case study in this research that be used about electricity usage in Surabaya city. Surabaya is the capital of the province with very high electrification that equal to 99,79%. This proves that Surabaya can be used as an indicator of electricity. One factor that influence the high usage of electricity is temperature. The higher the air temperature caused the use of electrical equipment is increasing so that the used of electricity increases. Prediction of electrical used is needed to anticipate electricity supply as well as anticipation action against power outage which can disturb human activities. In this study, electricity consumption of household group in Surabaya was observed monthly, then predicted using nonparametric regression method based on Fourier series estimator. One of the advantages of the Fourier series is that it can overcome data that has repeating pattern. This study results a minimum GCV value when the oscillation parameter reaches 11. The chosen model based on minimum GCV has met the model goodness criteria. Then, the selected model used to predict the household electricity usage in Surabaya for some time ahead.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Tjahjono E., Sediono., Mardianto M. and Lestari A. (2018). Modeling on Electricity Consumption’s Average of Households Group in Surabaya with Nonparametric Approach based on Fourier Estimator.In Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs, ISBN 978-989-758-407-7, pages 147-150. DOI: 10.5220/0008518501470150

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icmis18,
author={Eko Tjahjono and Sediono and M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto and Ajeng Novy Lestari},
title={Modeling on Electricity Consumption’s Average of Households Group in Surabaya with Nonparametric Approach based on Fourier Estimator},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,},
year={2018},
pages={147-150},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0008518501470150},
isbn={978-989-758-407-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Mathematics and Islam - Volume 1: ICMIs,
TI - Modeling on Electricity Consumption’s Average of Households Group in Surabaya with Nonparametric Approach based on Fourier Estimator
SN - 978-989-758-407-7
AU - Tjahjono E.
AU - Sediono.
AU - Mardianto M.
AU - Lestari A.
PY - 2018
SP - 147
EP - 150
DO - 10.5220/0008518501470150