Forecasting the Amount of Foreign Tourists of Asean Country Origin in North Sumatera using Monte Carlo Simulation

Suyanto, Andri Saputra Sk

2019

Abstract

Forecasting is an important tool in effective and efficient planning to predict future events. The characteristic of forecasting about future values of a variable for planning or decision making of a situation to estimate future values. Monte Carlo simulation is a simulation model that includes a random series and sampling with a probability distribution that can be known and determined, so this simulation can be used. In this study, data was taken from the amount of foreign tourists from ASEAN member countries who visited North Sumatra from 2009 to 2018 which indicated a trend data pattern over time. Then, data processed and analyzed using Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the forecast results for 5 years after that. As a result the amount of foreign tourists who visited North Sumatra from Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as a whole have increased respectively by 2.61%, 1.14%, 3.10% and 5.66%. The number of foreign tourists who visited North Sumatra origin Brunei, Vietnam and Myanmar as a whole decreased respectively by 3.56%, 4.90% and 28.11%.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Suyanto. and Sk A. (2019). Forecasting the Amount of Foreign Tourists of Asean Country Origin in North Sumatera using Monte Carlo Simulation. In Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath, ISBN 978-989-758-556-2, pages 340-345. DOI: 10.5220/0010182200002775

in Bibtex Style

@conference{imc-scimath19,
author={Suyanto and Andri Saputra Sk},
title={Forecasting the Amount of Foreign Tourists of Asean Country Origin in North Sumatera using Monte Carlo Simulation},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath,},
year={2019},
pages={340-345},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010182200002775},
isbn={978-989-758-556-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International MIPAnet Conference on Science and Mathematics - Volume 1: IMC-SciMath,
TI - Forecasting the Amount of Foreign Tourists of Asean Country Origin in North Sumatera using Monte Carlo Simulation
SN - 978-989-758-556-2
AU - Suyanto.
AU - Sk A.
PY - 2019
SP - 340
EP - 345
DO - 10.5220/0010182200002775